Series Thread: Rangers Host Dodgers For Three Games July 21-23

[True Rangers Fan]

there's the conundrum.

they still have to play August and September. a ton can happen. they could very easily fall out of contention.

they're basically betting on everything going right for them just to have a shot at the postseason. a real risk that they end up out of the race and then Shohei walks.

 

[True Rangers Fan]

the Rangers once had a 5 game division lead with 9 games remaining and didn't win the division. owning the third WC spot on August 1st seems completely pointless to me to use as a barometer, but I'm not a GM.

 

[DT LUNA]

there's the conundrum.

they still have to play August and September. a ton can happen. they could very easily fall out of contention.

they're basically betting on everything going right for them just to have a shot at the postseason. a real risk that they end up out of the race and then Shohei walks.

Is going to be interesting.

 

[True Rangers Fan]

Is going to be interesting.

Glad I'm not an Angels fan

 

[WilltheThrill]

I view every trade without regard to being able to sign the guy after we trade for them. That is so uncertain that it is a non-factor. Any player we trade for is for the length of his contract, to me.

I generally agree with this outlook. However, I view Ohtani as a special case, just due to the overwhelming amount of elite prospects it would take to get him in a trade where it’s known he’s extending.

Those two packages are VASTLY different for me. If he’s a rental, then I would not pay what the Angels would likely want. Ohtani can only make so much difference in 2 months, even as good as he is. You can strike him out. You can beat him when he starts on the mound. There’s a chance he only starts once in the playoffs, gets beat, and the Rangers get bounced. In that scenario, just about any package of elite prospects would be considered too much. Rentals are always a risk, so while I would roll the dice on losing a couple of top 10 guys, I wouldn’t be willing to risk 5-6 top guys.

But if you can get him to extend, then I would pay almost any price because you know for sure he is going to make a massive impact over 4, 5, 6 etc seasons. You’re getting a much better guarantee he will make the prospect cost worthwhile.

Just my .02.

 

[True Rangers Fan]

I generally agree with this outlook. However, I view Ohtani as a special case, just due to the overwhelming amount of elite prospects it would take to get him in a trade where it’s known he’s extending.

Those two packages are VASTLY different for me. If he’s a rental, then I would not pay what the Angels would likely want. Ohtani can only make so much difference in 2 months, even as good as he is. You can strike him out. You can beat him when he starts on the mound. There’s a chance he only starts once in the playoffs, gets beat, and the Rangers get bounced. In that scenario, just about any package of elite prospects would be considered too much. Rentals are always a risk, so while I would roll the dice on losing a couple of top 10 guys, I wouldn’t be willing to risk 5-6 top guys.

But if you can get him to extend, then I would pay almost any price because you know for sure he is going to make a massive impact over 4, 5, 6 etc seasons. You’re getting a much better guarantee he will make the prospect cost worthwhile.

Just my .02.

Based on this, I do wonder if there's a "ceiling" to how much teams will offer. It's possible that the Angels accept the best offer they get in order to be able to walk away with something. And I'm sure fans of every other team will be pissed that their team didn't beat the offer.

 

[saddles]

the Rangers once had a 5 game division lead with 9 games remaining and didn't win the division. owning the third WC spot on August 1st seems completely pointless to me to use as a barometer, but I'm not a GM.

Unless I looked at the standings wrong, they just want to be the top team chasing the last WC spot.

Actually, I doubt very many teams would sell off if they were in that spot. Of course, no other team has that trade chip.

 

[saddles]

Based on this, I do wonder if there's a "ceiling" to how much teams will offer. It's possible that the Angels accept the best offer they get in order to be able to walk away with something. And I'm sure fans of every other team will be pissed that their team didn't beat the offer.

One idea I have heard floated is that they might take less for Ohtani, if they could unload Rendon on that team

 

[True Rangers Fan]

Unless I looked at the standings wrong, they just want to be the top team chasing the last WC spot.

Actually, I doubt very many teams would sell off if they were in that spot. Of course, no other team has that trade chip.

technically you're right, I was giving them too much credit.

 

[saddles]

I generally agree with this outlook. However, I view Ohtani as a special case, just due to the overwhelming amount of elite prospects it would take to get him in a trade where it’s known he’s extending.

Those two packages are VASTLY different for me. If he’s a rental, then I would not pay what the Angels would likely want. Ohtani can only make so much difference in 2 months, even as good as he is. You can strike him out. You can beat him when he starts on the mound. There’s a chance he only starts once in the playoffs, gets beat, and the Rangers get bounced. In that scenario, just about any package of elite prospects would be considered too much. Rentals are always a risk, so while I would roll the dice on losing a couple of top 10 guys, I wouldn’t be willing to risk 5-6 top guys.

But if you can get him to extend, then I would pay almost any price because you know for sure he is going to make a massive impact over 4, 5, 6 etc seasons. You’re getting a much better guarantee he will make the prospect cost worthwhile.

Just my .02.

Does anyone extend at the time of the trade any longer? Is there any player who should be more excited about reaching free agency than Ohtani?

 

[True Rangers Fan]

Does anyone extend at the time of the trade any longer? Is there any player who should be more excited about reaching free agency than Ohtani?

the most recent/closest comp that I am aware of is Mookie Betts.

he was traded to the Dodgers in the offseason before his final contract year, and then signed an extension mid-season of that year. 12/365. So it wasn't at the time of the trade, but they did get him before he reached free agency.

 

[saddles]

the most recent/closest comp that I am aware of is Mookie Betts.

he was traded to the Dodgers in the offseason before his final contract year, and then signed an extension mid-season of that year. 12/365. So it wasn't at the time of the trade, but they did get him before he reached free agency.

Oh yeah, those would be more common. The other is almost unheard of.

 

[saddles]

 

[True Rangers Fan]

Oh yeah, those would be more common. The other is almost unheard of.

plus, the other team would have to receive permission to negotiate with Shohei.

just too many obstacles for a trade-and-extend in the MLB. not impossible, but close enough.

 

[WilltheThrill]

Does anyone extend at the time of the trade any longer? Is there any player who should be more excited about reaching free agency than Ohtani?

Oh, I agree 100%. Ohtani isn’t going to extend at the time of the deal, and I don’t blame him. That’s why I’m generally against an Ohtani trade because I would put our odds of retaining him at about 10%. He’s almost guaranteed to hit free agency.

About the best we could hope for is the Rangers going on a long playoffs run (maybe even a WS), Ohtani falling in love with the team/organization/fanbase/market while on that playoff run and choosing to sign with us before other suitors even have a chance to pitch to him.

 

[saddles]

 

[Uncle Siggy]

About the best we could hope for is the Rangers going on a long playoffs run (maybe even a WS), Ohtani falling in love with the team/organization/fanbase/market while on that playoff run and choosing to sign with us before other suitors even have a chance to pitch to him.

He had the opportunity to sign here when he first came over (with his good friend Darvish trying to convince him to come to the Rangers) and decided not to, can't see him signing an extension with the Rangers at any price...

 

[True Rangers Fan]

He had the opportunity to sign here when he first came over (with his good friend Darvish trying to convince him to come to the Rangers) and decided not to, can't see him signing an extension with the Rangers at any price...

I wouldn't read anything into that. He also turned down 28 other teams, including the Yankees and Dodgers.

If I remember correctly, LAA was the right combo of Trout, west coast, and most importantly, agreed to let him be a two way player the way he wanted to be. I think most teams were hesitant to let him do that because no one had done that in about 70 years. He put the question to bed, so that's no longer a factor.

And he wants to win. If the Rangers pony up the dough, he'll come here.

 

[Uncle Siggy]

And he wants to win. If the Rangers pony up the dough, he'll come here.

And they'd be extremely stupid to pony up that much cash and prospects to begin with, even the Padres figured out they phucked up acquiring Soto...

 

[True Rangers Fan]

And they'd be extremely stupid to pony up that much cash and prospects to begin with, even the Padres figured out they phucked up acquiring Soto...

I should clarify - I was talking about free agency. If they want him, I prefer they just wait and sign him.