Rams can challenge in NFC West

[Vitamike]

Rams can challenge in NFC West
It's not just creating debate, it's about an abundance of cheap talent
Updated: March 21, 2013, 9:12 PM ET
By Chris Sprow | ESPN Insider

The Rams are loaded with young, affordable talent, including rising running back Daryl Richardson.

If you polled evaluators across the NFL and asked them to pick out the league's most talented rosters, you'd end up with results that placed the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers at or near the top. It doesn't take a war room-trained eye to see it, which is why the latest ESPN NFL Power Rankings had those two teams at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, as we wrap up free agency and look toward the draft.

This doesn't just happen because of very good drafting and talent evaluation -- and the Seahawks and 49ers have had plenty of both -- it's also about money.

In a league where the salary cap forces teams to creatively allocate resources and often cut players they'd prefer to keep, what you pay your quarterback drives roster construction. The top five QB cap hits for 2013 (as it stands now) will average about $19.6 million in 2013. That total is more than 15 percent of the NFL cap number, which means that on a per-player basis, those teams will have to pay the rest of a 53-man roster with the remaining 85 percent. In simple terms, if "NFL quarterback" is the most important, deterministic position in sports, paying a good one like an average player allows you to build a deeper, middle-class roster. This is why the offseason has been defined not just by signing QBs, but by making really good QBs financially realistic luxuries. (See: Brady, Tom.) NFL rosters are an oligarchy, but Seattle and San Francisco, with Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick at QB, respectively, will take cap hits of slightly more than $2 million total for their starting QBs in 2013. This won't hold true forever -- if Kaepernick and Wilson keep it up, the cash will come -- but in the meantime, it's 100-proof gravy.

In terms of roster-building in sports, there isn't a market inefficiency anywhere that can compare to paying so little for a player who determines so much. The Seahawks have utilized this current luxury by making a huge splash in free agency, deepening their pass rush in particular. The 49ers, meanwhile, dealt higher-priced Alex Smith and now have a league-high number of draft picks in 2013, this for a roster so deep they barely used A.J. Jenkins and LaMichael James, their first- and second-round picks in 2012.

But the St. Louis Rams, seemingly a given for third fiddle in the NFC West headed into 2013, have an advantage of their own, even as Sam Bradford makes good money after being drafted under the old collective bargaining agreement. And when you combine that edge with what they already have on the field, there's no reason to discount the Rams as both legit contenders for the NFC West title as soon as the coming season, and as favorites in the years to come.

First take a look at the current team.

The 2012 Rams are now billed as a team that experienced a nice year of growth after a burnt-out crater of a season in 2011. The 2012 Rams won five more games than the year before, improved their plus-minus in point differential by 165 points (a whopping 10-plus points per week!), and went a combined 2-1-1 against the Seahawks and 49ers. The improvement was so great, in fact, it almost begs for the "regression" label in 2013. Teams that improve so quickly usually do, in fact, hit recline for a year until they get used to the new posture.

But a setback in 2013 isn't certain for the Rams, in part because the 2012 team could have been even better. Last season, St. Louis held leads in six of its eight losses, and saw 80 percent of that negative point differential wrapped up in one game. It was outscored by 49 points all season, but 38 of those points came via a 45-7 Week 8 thrashing by New England. The 2012 Rams weren't particularly lucky on turnovers (minus-1 for the season), and also played one of the NFL's toughest schedules. And that winning record against the teams we now consider the best in the NFL wasn't a fluke, because the Rams have plenty of talent, and are about to add a lot more.

Seattle and San Francisco can maintain deep rosters for another couple of years because they pay so little at quarterback, but the Rams can too because they pay so little for so many key players. The trade that gave the Redskins Robert Griffin III wasn't just necessary because St. Louis is locked into Sam Bradford, it will also hand the Rams an obscene surplus of cheap, young talent. The Rams turned that No. 2 overall pick into four total first- and second-round picks in 2012, and they still have two first-round picks coming in both the 2013 and 2014 drafts. And Washington's success didn't really diminish the value of those picks, because even as St. Louis dropped on the draft board with every game both they and the Redskins won in 2012, the Rams gained an economic advantage: Those good young players keep getting cheaper. Combined, St. Louis took a cap hit of about $6 million for the four first- and second-round picks in 2012, and the Rams could take similar hits for the total value of the picks they select in the next two years from those rounds.

We've already seen those young players tip the scales for the Rams. In 2011, the Rams ranked last in the NFL in Adjusted Games Lost because of injury, according to Football Outsiders. But in part because of the emergence of young talent, they jumped to No. 6 in the NFL in 2012. The Rams' 2012 draft created an abundance of games played from the likes of Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Chris Givens and Daryl Richardson (not to mention kicker Greg Zuerlein).


Jared Cook, who piled up more than 500 yards last season for the Titans, gives the Rams a dynamic receiving threat.


But this isn't just injury luck. Success in the NFL is defined by talent, but also attrition. Put more young players on the field, and you can expect better health. Because of their draft rewards, the Rams are going to continue to put young talent on the field. Based on Snap-Weighted Age -- a Football Outsiders metric that calculates the average age of players on the field on a per-snap basis -- the Rams were already one of the younger teams in the NFL in 2012 at an average of 26.2 years old, and they'll continue to keep getting younger via the surplus of premium draft picks. This isn't just a young, talented team with reasonable expectations on the health side -- the Rams have more on the way.

And the cheap, young talent creates another advantage.

The CBA now in place doesn't just mean that teams can pay so little for premium young talent, it means that teams have more cash left over to spend in free agency. This offseason, the Rams already have found significant upgrades at left tackle through the addition of Jake Long, and in the passing game with the addition of Jared Cook, a versatile tight end.

While the Rams can assume a measure of good health with more young impact on the way, their competition in the division might assume the opposite. The 49ers were the healthiest team in the NFL last year. They lost on average four times fewer games to injury than the average NFL team. The Seahawks checked in at No. 4 leaguewide -- they lost half of what a typical team did because of injury.

The Rams also aren't taking the assumed health for granted by spending where they don't need to. For instance, "losing" running back Steven Jackson might appear to some as a loss on paper, but St. Louis was smart not to pay a premium for a running back entering his age-30 season, one they'd already gotten more than 10,000 yards and 131 games from over nine seasons. By letting Jackson walk, the Rams may have lost a pretty good player, but they stuck to a philosophy built around the direction of the roster. With more good young players soon to be added, why pay a premium for the decline phase of a veteran?

This is a franchise with a good sense of the direction of its roster.

At the NFL combine, Rams coach Jeff Fisher was asked about utilizing so many young players. "Coaches will … tell you that players make the biggest improvement from Year 1 to Year 2," Fisher said. "They're no longer rookies. They understand what they have to go through. They're gonna come [for] the offseason program. And they're gonna improve."

It's an optimistic outlook. But no team is bound to improve more over the next few seasons than the Rams. If Fisher is right, they'll get improvements from a deep 2012 rookie class in 2013, then a good 2013 rookie class in 2014, and another good 2014 rookie class in 2015.

All the while, they'll be able to maintain both reasonable assumptions of health, and the prospect of continued flexibility in free agency. Bradford's development is obviously a huge aspect to all of this, but he made strides in 2012, and the Rams are capable of adding more weapons through the draft.

As I wrote back in September, the draft isn't the crapshoot many believe it is. The bulk of future stars are drafted early, and save all conspiracy theories about teams simply wanting to play guys they took early. It's not confirmation bias -- it's talent. And no team is in better position to take advantage of this fact than the St. Louis Rams. And even in the meantime, they can't be dismissed as legit contenders in the NFC West based on what they already have.


Chris Sprow
ESPN Insider

 

[Vitamike]

I found this great article on the Whiners boards. It is a pre-draft article that talks about the Rams position in the NFC West and the League for years to come.

I thought it gave good insight on how the Rams are working not only the Sam Bradford contract cap hit but the RGIII trade deal too. With that in mind, it opens up a new angle to discuss this topic and see how well the guys we signed as free agents, just drafted and he UDFA's fit in Les and Jeff's master plan. And make no mistake, there is a master plan!

 

[bluepigpen]

Nice Vita, thanks for the article and now after the draft, this plan even looks better.

 

[ozarkram]

Great article. I hate to be the lone naysayer but. I hope we are not getting the cart before the horse. I look for continued improvement from the Rams. IMHO much depends on the the play of Sam. The defense is strong and getting stronger. No worries there. Some talent has been brought in. Very young and mostly unproven. Our division is going to be tough we wont surprise anyone this year. I agree Fisher has a master plan just feel it maybe a year or two down the road. Any gains this year will be hard fought and experience for the future. Just as an after thought I believe the loss of SJ though necessary will be felt more than many imagine.

 

[RobBase]

Fisher is the best coach in the division, and clearly has the Niners number. That alone says the Rams can challenge for the division.

I think your guys biggest question mark is the running game this year. Haven't seen a Rams game minus SJax in a loooong time.

 

[Clayton]

The Rams can make major strides just by cutting down on penalties and having better special teams play. Last place in penalties and last place in field position differential isn't something that a potential playoff team can afford to have.

Jake Long and Alec Ogletree are the 2 major additions on the roster that Im curious about. The upside of both could certainly make the Rams very formidable on both sides but there is some risk to both, as well. Jake Long wasn't that good last year. But he was the best before injuries.

The safety position is obviously a big wild card, too. You have to think that other teams are going to be attacking our safeties as opposed to having to deal with a lot of the other spots on our very promising looking defense. Dahl got attacked a lot last year but we still don't know who is going to be playing there.

The roster is deep, young and full of talent. Hopefully we can keep our prowess within the division while fairing better against our (easier) non-division opponents.

 

[Vitamike]

Here is a pretty good article from this hack Sandos....

GM: 'Don't be scared to get what you want'
Apr 26 1:20AM ET
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

The St. Louis Rams haven't drafted a receiver in the first round since 1999.

For three years, the St. Louis Rams lacked sufficient offensive weapons to properly support and evaluate prized quarterback Sam Bradford.

They drafted Tavon Austin eighth overall Thursday night to change the dynamic.

The pressure isn't necessarily on Bradford to instantly produce in a huge way or else, but for the first time in the quarterback's career, the Rams have given him a highly drafted and versatile young group of targets to grow along with him.

Bradford is still just 25 years old. He's a few days younger than San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, hard as that is to believe.

Austin, a wideout unlike any other in this draft, just turned 22. Chris Givens, who had a reception of at least 50 yards in five consecutive games as a rookie in 2012, won't turn 24 until December. Brian Quick, a second-rounder last year, turns 24 in June. Austin Pettis is 25 next month. The newly acquired Jared Cook just turned 26. Fellow tight end Lance Kendricks is 25.

The targets for Bradford range in height from the 5-foot-8 Austin to Givens (5-11), Pettis (6-3), Quick (6-3), Kendricks (6-3) and Cook (6-5).

"They're going to create mismatches which are going to have to be dealt with defensively," Rams coach Jeff Fisher said of Austin and Givens in particular.

Austin's selection marked the first time the Rams have used a first-round pick for a receiver since taking Torry Holt sixth overall in 1999. About time, right?

No wide receiver has more than eight touchdown receptions for the Rams since the team drafted Bradford first overall in 2010. Fifty-eight NFL wideouts have at least nine scoring receptions over the same three-year period.

Bradford shares some of the blame, of course. But the supporting cast has let him down too frequently. The offensive line, undermanned and ravaged by injuries, has exposed Bradford to undue punishment. Danny Amendola's injury troubles prevented Bradford from building upon an on-field relationship that appeared so promising at times, including against the 49ers last season.

"Tavon will play a similar position as Danny," Rams general manager Les Snead said by phone Thursday night. "He will also return punts and return kickoffs. And you can do some things with him that may cause defenses to wonder if the play is a throw or a run. Put him with fast tight ends, with our receivers and we're trying to create mismatches."

The Rams could have paid a premium to keep Amendola, arguably their top receiver, from leaving in free agency. They could have paid a few million bucks to keep their other starting receiver, Brandon Gibson.

Instead, the Rams have bet big on their ability to scout fresh talent. They have entrusted Fisher and Snead to build the type of supporting cast Snead helped Atlanta assemble around quarterback Matt Ryan previously. Snead was working under Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff when Atlanta traded up 21 spots in the first round to select receiver Julio Jones sixth overall in 2011.

"They made a larger jump and their team was probably at a more mature state," Snead said of the Falcons. "But we stated all along how we wanted to get this offense weapons."

The move from No. 16 to No. 8 for Austin could be just as significant for the Rams if they're right about Austin possessing unique qualities as a 5-foot-8, 174-pound dynamo with touchdowns as a runner, receiver and return specialist at West Virginia last season. Austin finished the season with 114 receptions for 1,289 yards and 12 receiving scores.

To get Austin, the Rams sent picks in the first, second, third and seventh rounds to Buffalo for first- and third-round choices.

"They did give up a lot," Austin told reporters in St. Louis, "but I'm definitely going to try to work my hardest to give out a lot. I'm going to come out every day at work ready to play."

The first round ended for the Rams with the team moving back from 22nd to 30th in a trade with Atlanta, then selecting outside linebacker Alec Ogletree.

"To be honest, the plan No. 1 was to come away with Tavon Austin and Alec Ogletree, and it worked out," Snead said. "We knew we would have to give up some things to get Tavon. We felt we could recoup some of those things and still get Alec."

Austin's status as the first skill player selected verifies the first part of Snead's statement. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Thursday marked only the fourth time in the common-draft era (since 1967) that no team selected a quarterback, running back or wide receiver before the eighth overall pick. Herman Moore (1991) and Al Toon (1985) went 10th overall in their draft classes. Austin and Larry Csonka (1968) went eighth in theirs.

There can be no denying the Rams got the receiver they wanted.

Rookie wideouts sometimes need time to adjust. Austin should contribute right away on special teams, at least. The biggest challenge could be digesting an NFL playbook. Processing terminology in the huddle can be much tougher than reading simplified signals from the sideline, as the case can be in college.

"I never came out of the big playbook in college [like] they have in the NFL," Austin said. "I did all signals. I don’t know how it’s going to be when I get to the league. That’s probably going to be my biggest challenge right now."

The Rams could still use a starting safety. They could use another running back to round out a backfield featuring committee backs Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson. Getting a big back Friday should be a priority as the Rams continue to build around Bradford.

"One of the things was, when it tipped and we gave up a second-rounder, our board was looking like the better value for our team and our fits and the roles we want them to execute the next few years was going to be more in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth rounds," Snead said.

The Rams won't be shy. Snead has demonstrated that. A year after the Rams swung a blockbuster trade with the Washington Redskins to secure two additional first-rounders and more, they were navigating their way up the board for Austin.

"You have decisions to make and don't be scared to get what you want," Snead said.

Mike Sando |
NFL

 

[bluepigpen]

Now Stedman Bailey can be added to that list with his 25 TDs his last season at West Virginia. The Rams have been terrible at the draft in the Devaney and Spags years and even go back further and find out why the Rams were the laughing stock of the league and for good reasons. Now Fisher is not God, but he is a good coach with a very talented group of coaches and the Rams did go from 2-14 to 7-8-1. No one that I have read is saying the Rams will challenge the 49ers or Seahawks this next season for a Super Bowl berth but the tide is turning in the right direction and only time will tell how long it will take.

 

[ozarkram]

The title of the thread and first article is Rams can challenge in NFC West. So someones writing about it. No?

 

[WvuDieHard]

You will remember Stedman Bailey---sleeper of this draft at his position. Getting Stedman and Tavon with a solid QB---the RAMS wil be back.

 

[NorthsideRamFan]

I feel as though the Rams are getting just due recognition. The Ogletree selection was huge to me. These articles are taking some of the words right out of my mouth. I know Alec's just a rookie, but he should pay dividends IMMEDIATELY. Hiis skill set will definitely help us matchup even more against these mobile QBs. We have real reason to be optimistic this year and I'm looking forward to seeing both the home games against SF and SEA in person. STOKED about the potential we have!!

 

[Retroram52]

Nice articles Vita. Blue, Bailey might be the sleeper of our draft but that remains to be seen.

 

[bluepigpen]

Your right retro, Bailey is an unknown as is Austin, Givens, Kendricks, Quick, Pettis...... that is because the Rams have not had a line that would give Bradford time. If the Jake Long signing, Rok comes back healthy and nasty, Jones fines a spot, Wells actually plays and the agent for Saffold lets Rodger play, the NFL might just hear who these guys are. If none of those guys work out up front, a year from now they will be saying Stegman who?

 

[Vitamike]

Stegman who?

 

[ozarkram]

 

[chy1127]

You will remember Stedman Bailey---sleeper of this draft at his position. Getting Stedman and Tavon with a solid QB---the RAMS wil be back.

Add in Cook, Quick, Pettis and Givens and Sam finally has some weapons. Hopefully Richardson/Pead/Stacy/Ganaway can get it done on the ground.

 

[chy1127]

Safety was clearly a weak point last year. I hope they bring Mikell back for a reduced salary. Armstrong 6-3 216 and McDonald 6-3 205 are both big hitters and hopefully can learn quickly.

 

[Retroram52]

Yea Chy. We have gotten bigger and more smashmouth in the secondary at safety with the draft. They don't need to bring Mikell back. Just go with the draftees and the undrafted rooks and we will be fine.

 

[demiurge]

@Retro - I'd feel better if they brought back Mikell - for the right price!

I think we'll be OK, but we've got a LOT of new parts to coordinate. Having a steady hand back there would go a long way to make sure it goes right.

I'm honestly a bit worried we'll drop off some next year. I think they are building a fantastic foundation for the long term, but we lost a lot of veteran talent and the new kids are going to take a while to jell.

Guess we'll see, but I could easily see another missed playoff year - with a big jump in say 2 years.

But it's been a LONG time since we fielded a good team, and I'm impatient, dammit!