Question RE: 2015 Giants Offense Production to Date

[Villain]

WTF? Were you guys expecting this kind of production? I sure as hell wasn't. Should I have?

WAR - 1st in MLB
wRC+ - T-3rd in MLB (2nd in NL)
wOBA - 7th in MLB (3rd in NL, but COL is 1st and they shouldn't count)

All of these rankings include pitchers' batting, so they should favor AL teams.
===============

Not to take anything away from undeniable studs like Posey and Pence, but how the heck is this possible? Is Duffy legit? Is Panik? Can Crawford keep this up? I mean, this is a team where the 9th most hitter's WAR is from a starting pitcher (Bumgarner, who else?) with only 46 plate appearances (for comparison, Greinke is 13th on the Dodgers).

Please explain this phenomena and give me your thoughts. Think it's going to last? Is the regression boogeyman going to come out of the cove and cover the bats with wet sandwiches?

 

[calsnowskier]

Let's put Posey and Pence to the side. As you said, they are studs.

Aoki is having a very good year, but it isnt too far outside his career norms. Is he playing better thatn expected? Yes. If he playing OMG out of his mind? No.

Panik has simply continued what he showed last season when he, almost single-handedly, got this team to the post-season. Were we expecting him to be this good? No. Were we expecting him to be good? Yes (coming into this season).

Take a closer look at Craw's trends over his career. He has gotten better each season. Last year was expected to be his big break-out, but he jammed his thumb sliding into 2B and he was not the same the rest of the year. The injury was not bad enough to require a DL stint, and he was still one of the games best SS (when you factor in his D) that he was still a net ++ to the team. The year he is having is not that much of a surprise. It is what we were all expecting/hoping he would become. And he still has a LOT of room for growth.

Duffy has performed at every level he has played at professionally. He has never had anything handed to him. He is better than anyone expected, but he has been on our radar for at least 2 years now.

Belt is the weirdest of the bunch. He LOOKS like he is completely lost at the plate. But every year he ends up putting up sme of the best numbers on the team. And he provides near-GG quality defense at 1B.

Basically, we were not expecting to be the juggernaut that we are, but we were optimistic that this team had an offense that might be able to carry the team when needed.

And yes. This is sustainable. We have a lot more kids like Duffy and Panik coming up in the farm.

 

[Villain]

Brandon Crawford has easily been the biggest surprise for me. I always saw him as another Brendan Ryan all-glove guy. That guy is really good for having such gross looking hair.

 

[calsnowskier]

For us, I think Duffy was the biggest surprise. Sure, he has performed everywhere he has played, but he was a beanpole with no pedigree. He was primarily a middle infielder in the minors, so I dont think too many thought he would be THE solution at 3B this year. Fill in? Sure. Be the legit #3 hitter on arguably the most potent offense in the NL? No eff'n way...

 

[Villain]

For us, I think Duffy was the biggest surprise. Sure, he has performed everywhere he has played, but he was a beanpole with no pedigree. He was primarily a middle infielder in the minors, so I dont think too many thought he would be THE solution at 3B this year. Fill in? Sure. Be the legit #3 hitter on arguably the most potent offense in the NL? No eff'n way...

I guess it's just a semantics thing for my on why I wasn't "surprised" by Duffy - because I never heard of him! Haha.

Still, the overrall reaction, in general, has to be "wow" with this group. The stretch run will seperate the men from the boys so we'll see if this keeps up.

 

[calsnowskier]

I guess it's just a semantics thing for my on why I wasn't "surprised" by Duffy - because I never heard of him! Haha.

Still, the overrall reaction, in general, has to be "wow" with this group. The stretch run will seperate the men from the boys so we'll see if this keeps up.

How many times does this team need to perform before everyone is no longer surprised?

In 2010, the Giants were the underdogs against Atlanta, Philly and Texas.

In 2012, the Giants were the underdogs against Cincy, St Louis and Detroit.

In 2014, the Giants were the underdogs against Pit, Washington, St Louis and KC.

10 consecutive post-season rounds that this team was not supposed to advance through. 10 consecutive post-season rounds where the Giants enjoyed some bubbly.



And BTW... One of those kids I was talking about in our system (the ones who are like Duffy and Panik) just got called up today.

 

[SFGRTB]

Brandon Crawford has easily been the biggest surprise for me. I always saw him as another Brendan Ryan all-glove guy. That guy is really good for having such gross looking hair.

Cal hit it on the nose with Craw. Since he came to the majors, he has steadily improved in almost every hitting category. He learned a lot of the major league level, as he only had one full-season in the minors.

Panik's power has been a nice surprise.

I'll admit, it is strange to see the Giants clear strength be their offense. But I feel like a lot of us have seen this coming the last couple seasons, or at least been waiting for it to finally materialize on most cylinders. So far this season, it has.

 

[LHG]

Does Hensley Meulens finally get some positive recognition? He's been a scapegoat for a few years, could he be part of the reason this team's offense has been coming together?

 

[Villain]

How many times does this team need to perform before everyone is no longer surprised?

In 2010, the Giants were the underdogs against Atlanta, Philly and Texas.

In 2012, the Giants were the underdogs against Cincy, St Louis and Detroit.

In 2014, the Giants were the underdogs against Pit, Washington, St Louis and KC.

Well, for good reason.

2014 - ranked 14th in wOBA with a 101 wRC+ (that's 1% over league average)
2012 - ranked 13th in wOBA with a 101 wRC+
2010 - ranked 17th in wOBA with a 98 wRC+ (that's 2% worse than league average)

The batters do rank highly in fWAR, but that's due to positive defensive metrics. THe point is, the offense wasn't that special those years and that's what gets you the underdog label. This year is the one that gets a thread like this one, where the team loses a huge contributor in Pablo Sandoval but then goes and ranks BETTER offensively - so much better that they rank as one of the best offenses in baseball. That's crazy, and I'm still not convinced that I should've seen it coming.

I know you guys all think really highly of your teams prospects, but it's not like Duffy was rated in the same breath as Kris Bryant and Joey Gallo but no one was listening. Go here: The FanGraphs Top 200 Prospect List | FanGraphs Baseball and press CTRL+F to try and find Matt Duffy (spoiler: he's not there). FWIW Tomlinson isn't there either.

 

[calsnowskier]

The Giants farm system has been a "nuclear wasteland" according to FG since 2010.

Since then, the Giants farm system has produced...

Posey
Bumgerner
Wheeler
Crawford
Belt
Susac
Duffy
Panik
Otero
Gillaspie
Strickland
Heston

and through trades, produced...

Pence
Sanchez
Scutaro
Beltran

You can see why we dont place a lot of stock in the "experts" opinion of our system...

 

[Villain]

Well, 2015 Top 100 Prospects Archives - BaseballAmerica.com is siding with FG for 2015, and a lot of those guys you list weren't off of everyone's radar like Duffy. I think you're inserting a narrative (that the Giants are unfairly ignored) that doesn't exist. Belt, Posey, Susac, Panik, and Wheeler - at least off the top of my head, and I'm not some kinda prospect hawk - were not underrated mystery players (like Duffy) that the Giants pulled outta nowhere.

 

[calsnowskier]

Well, 2015 Top 100 Prospects Archives - BaseballAmerica.com is siding with FG for 2015, and a lot of those guys you list weren't off of everyone's radar like Duffy. I think you're inserting a narrative (that the Giants are unfairly ignored) that doesn't exist. Belt, Posey, Susac, Panik, and Wheeler - at least off the top of my head, and I'm not some kinda prospect hawk - were not underrated mystery players (like Duffy) that the Giants pulled outta nowhere.

Panik was a "horrible over-draft" when the Giants took him in the 1st round. Now he is ARGUABLY the best 2B in the NL (Wong and Gordon also have claim to that title).

But Heston and Crawford were after-thoughts at best. Otero and Gillaspie were both Giant's cast-offs that have had moderate success elsewhere (both were really just roster-casualties). Strickland was a Giants dumpster-dive about 3 years ago after a number of organizations gave up on him (so technically not a Giants production, but he has been in our system long enough that the distinction is debatable).

Look, I am not saying there is some kind of conspiracy against the Giants. What I am saying is that the Giants scouts know what they are doing. They are looking for something that the "experts" arent looking for, and dont see. And they are hitting at a pretty good pace on these kids.

 

[msgkings322]

Well, 2015 Top 100 Prospects Archives - BaseballAmerica.com is siding with FG for 2015, and a lot of those guys you list weren't off of everyone's radar like Duffy. I think you're inserting a narrative (that the Giants are unfairly ignored) that doesn't exist. Belt, Posey, Susac, Panik, and Wheeler - at least off the top of my head, and I'm not some kinda prospect hawk - were not underrated mystery players (like Duffy) that the Giants pulled outta nowhere.

His point was that while the Giants' farm system is never rated very highly, somehow it's managed to produce a ton of legit major leaguers, allstars, and even MVPs. So, given the choice between that farm system not showing up on FG's love notes vs another farm that gets lots of pub but doesn't produce like ours, we're good.

I think we'd be hard pressed to find another team that has produced a list as good as the one cal posted above in the last 5 years.

 

[pachyderm]

Let's put Posey and Pence to the side. As you said, they are studs.

Aoki is having a very good year, but it isnt too far outside his career norms. Is he playing better thatn expected? Yes. If he playing OMG out of his mind? No.

Panik has simply continued what he showed last season when he, almost single-handedly, got this team to the post-season. Were we expecting him to be this good? No. Were we expecting him to be good? Yes (coming into this season).

Take a closer look at Craw's trends over his career. He has gotten better each season. Last year was expected to be his big break-out, but he jammed his thumb sliding into 2B and he was not the same the rest of the year. The injury was not bad enough to require a DL stint, and he was still one of the games best SS (when you factor in his D) that he was still a net ++ to the team. The year he is having is not that much of a surprise. It is what we were all expecting/hoping he would become. And he still has a LOT of room for growth.

Duffy has performed at every level he has played at professionally. He has never had anything handed to him. He is better than anyone expected, but he has been on our radar for at least 2 years now.

Belt is the weirdest of the bunch. He LOOKS like he is completely lost at the plate. But every year he ends up putting up sme of the best numbers on the team. And he provides near-GG quality defense at 1B.

Basically, we were not expecting to be the juggernaut that we are, but we were optimistic that this team had an offense that might be able to carry the team when needed.

And yes. This is sustainable. We have a lot more kids like Duffy and Panik coming up in the farm.

and belt has hit a power surge here lately... kinda anyway...

 

[Villain]

I think we'd be hard pressed to find another team that has produced a list as good as the one cal posted above in the last 5 years.

Cardinals, Astros, Cubs, Nationals, Indians, Padres (yes, the retarded Padres), Royals, Braves, all come pretty quickly to my head as having at least as good or better talent pipelines than the Giants, but that's really not the conversation for this thread. Honestly, I don't really care to debate the Giants' farm system or how it's perceived. I'm glad you guys are happy with it. Let's get back on topic.

The point is that this year's offense is demonstrating out-of-the-blue offensive production (a point that I don't really see as being debatable - the supporting numbers are out there). This is production that is far superior in comparison to what was done in the WS title years, it's not some affirmation of what's been there all along despite some kinda "no respect" or "undeserving-underdog" narratives.

My questions were (1) whether or not you guys saw this coming and (2) how viable you think it is for the team to keep this pace going?

I'm gathering that you guys would answer "yes" to both questions.

 

[calsnowskier]

You are only looking at half the game, though.

2010 was primarily a pitching team, but when all wa said and done, an average offensive team. If you look at the second half the season (the offense was basically completely rebuilt mid season), they were about top 25% offense. But again, that team was comprised of a generational rotation and top bully.

2012 was a more balanced team. The bully was still world-class, the rotation was near the top of the game and the offense was slightly above average.

No one here will explain to you the secret of the 2014 team. Not because we are jerks or because we have been sworn to secrecy, but because there really is no explaining last year's team. Our offense was acceptible, or bully was very good and outrage defense was very goo, but our rotation was a mess (save for 1 starter). Last year was just a case of a perfect manager and a team who had been there and didn't crack.

This team has the best offense of the dynasty years, probably the best defense (the OF D is a bit suspect), a bully that is in transition, and a rotation that looks solid if not dominant (we have 4 Starters who we can be comfortable with, 3 that we are very comfortable with). And again, the best manager in the game and a team full of bling-wearers. Not cracking under the pressure in the post-season is a big thing.

Will the Giants win this year? I have no idea. But just like the previous year's, we WILL be the dogs in any series we play in, and I will feel sorry for whatever team draws against us.

 

[1phlapdown]

Nobody saw Duff with 9 HR at this point, since he didn't hit one at all in 3yrs at LB St.

Blanco has stepped up this year with the AVE., and still plays good D, as the 4th OF.

STrickland has been schooled in the offseason to stop giving up the Dinger. (See last years post season. yikes)

The 'pen has made improvements in the last month or two, and will be the key again to post season success.

Dodgers have the deep pockets, but it will be hard unless your 'pen starts producing. 'Shaw and G can't pitch every game.

 

[calsnowskier]

Cardinals, Astros, Cubs, Nationals, Indians, Padres (yes, the retarded Padres), Royals, Braves, all come pretty quickly to my head as having at least as good or better talent pipelines than the Giants

Cardinals are a class org that know what they are doing. No arguments here about their ability.

Astros had 3 consecutive 100-loss seasons to produce that system. In that time frame, the Giants have added three trophies AND kicked out all-star quality players.

Cubs have done a good job, but a lot of their recent kids have come through sell-off trades, not drafting/scouting, AND very high draft picks. They have hit more they have missed on their picks, so don't misunderstand my point. They are a very good young team.

Nats had the overall #1 in back-to-back years where there were no-brainer, obvious, near generational players at the top of the draft. They have still done well outside of that, but that "that" is a pretty big "that".

Padres... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

...

AGain, the point is that for 6 straight years, the Giants have been rated at or near the very bottom of the farm rankings by BA, BP, FG, MLB, ESPN, etc, etc, etc. in that time frame they have been winning rings and producing all stars, starters and solid bench players AND trading for key pieces from that same system.

 

[calsnowskier]

Nobody saw Duff with 9 HR at this point, since he didn't hit one at all in 3yrs at LB St.

Blanco has stepped up this year with the AVE., and still plays good D, as the 4th OF.

STrickland has been schooled in the offseason to stop giving up the Dinger. (See last years post season. yikes)

The 'pen has made improvements in the last month or two, and will be the key again to post season success.

Dodgers have the deep pockets, but it will be hard unless your 'pen starts producing. 'Shaw and G can't pitch every game.

Why not? Bum does...

 

[dredinis21]

WTF? Were you guys expecting this kind of production? I sure as hell wasn't. Should I have?

WAR - 1st in MLB
wRC+ - T-3rd in MLB (2nd in NL)
wOBA - 7th in MLB (3rd in NL, but COL is 1st and they shouldn't count)

All of these rankings include pitchers' batting, so they should favor AL teams.
===============

Not to take anything away from undeniable studs like Posey and Pence, but how the heck is this possible? Is Duffy legit? Is Panik? Can Crawford keep this up? I mean, this is a team where the 9th most hitter's WAR is from a starting pitcher (Bumgarner, who else?) with only 46 plate appearances (for comparison, Greinke is 13th on the Dodgers).

Please explain this phenomena and give me your thoughts. Think it's going to last? Is the regression boogeyman going to come out of the cove and cover the bats with wet sandwiches?

I think the Giants based their organizational focus towards their home field advantage. We have a pitcher's park where HRs come to die, where Triple's Alley wreaks havoc on OF defenses without speed to cover the gaps, and the fog turns any well hit ball into a routine fly out. Our FO decides to put the onus on pitching, defense, and patient hitters with gap power. We used trades to pick up pieces we needed (see Pence, Hunter), have gone bargain shopping for other pieces in FA (see Aoki, Nori) and have drafted VERY well since Barr came over (see our entire fucking infield, backups included).

Kind of a side note....has anyone taken a look at the guys we traded away to get Pence? Sabean bent PHI over and went all Pulp Fiction on them. My goodness!