Post-Panda, Giants still active (it appears)

[msgkings322]

Matt Duffy had 60 ABs with us, and a .602 OPS. He has some promise, but IMHO it would not be wise to think we could contend for WSC IV with him as our regular 3B at this point.

They could instead choose to no longer have 3B be a position of strength, and instead make LF the position of strength, so now you have a defensive guy at third batting 7th or 8th and LF be the cleanup hitter to replace Panda. Still a contender. You probably also need to improve the team elsewhere like maybe adding a stud starter like Lester.

Or they may stand pat, and plug in just a guy at 3rd and LF, and sign Peavy, which is basically like my idea about punting 2015. And to be clear, I'm not saying punting is the only option, but I prefer it to wild overpays for guys like Lester or Markakis or Headley if that's what it takes to get those guys.

 

[Mays-Fan]

They could instead choose to no longer have 3B be a position of strength, and instead make LF the position of strength, so now you have a defensive guy at third batting 7th or 8th and LF be the cleanup hitter to replace Panda. Still a contender. You probably also need to improve the team elsewhere like maybe adding a stud starter like Lester.

Or they may stand pat, and plug in just a guy at 3rd and LF, and sign Peavy, which is basically like my idea about punting 2015. And to be clear, I'm not saying punting is the only option, but I prefer it to wild overpays for guys like Lester or Markakis or Headley if that's what it takes to get those guys.

Perhaps, but IMO that is not the FO's MO. They try to win every year. They didn't punt 2011 or 2013 - the FO tried to win and it just didn't happen. I don't want wild overpays (or Lyle Overbay, for that matter!) just to spend the budget. But I don't want to, as you say, punt either.

 

[msgkings322]

Perhaps, but IMO that is not the FO's MO. They try to win every year. They didn't punt 2011 or 2013 - the FO tried to win and it just didn't happen. I don't want wild overpays (or Lyle Overbay, for that matter!) just to spend the budget. But I don't want to, as you say, punt either.

I see 2011 and 2013 differently, unless I'm remembering it wrong they stood pat both years, only doing their patented 'overpay a key contributor' moves (Huff and Scutaro). And the logic on the surface seems sound: we just won it all, just bring the same team back...

Well it almost worked in 2011, even with Posey going down in May they won 86 games due to ridiculously good pitching. A lot of other people got hurt that year too, and the only healthy one, Huff, sucked.

In 2013 standing pat didn't work because 2012 had Melky powering things a lot of the year, and in 2013 they had Blanco (who was ok) and Torres (who sucked) and Pagan (who got hurt per usual). But mostly 2013 didn't work because EVERY starter except Bumgarner SUCKED balls.

So yes the FO didn't 'punt' 2011 or 2013 but they didn't really do anything to actually improve the team. They stood pat. This year they can't because Panda's gone, but that's my point, they probably realized the lesson that you can't just stand pat to repeat, especially because the 2014 just barely squeaked in there. So their choices are: punt, make smart deals to improve the club, or if those aren't available make really dumb deals to improve the club. We'd all prefer option 2, all I'm saying is I prefer option 1 to option 3. I am no longer in any hurry to win rings, and I prefer making moves with long term health in mind not just win 2015 at all costs.

 

[Sandisfan]

I just don't see the FO spending big money on Lester or any big time free agent. I think Duffy showed just enough for them to go Duffy as their 1st option at third and I see them going dumpster diving for someone like Morse.

I wish they would go for it with Mocada(sp) but have Giants ever gone all out for the TOP foreign player available during the off season? I know they picked up Daniel Carbonel but he wasn't the top guy available and with the new rules limiting (lux type tax) money to pay foreign free agents he was a more affordable piece....not saying he couldn't turn out to be a top guy but if he was put in the draft in June he wouldn't be high 1st rounder and as such he is probably less than 50% to be something above average but it was a good gamble.

Basically I don't see the FO putting out big money to anyone this year.....I would have preferred to keep Panda for the post season reason.... and it could turn out well in the future but unless Cainer comes back very good next year I see the Giants only being within 5 to 10 (probably closer to 10) games of making the playoffs and it will take someone coming up as a starter (above average+) in the next year or 2 to keep them in a pennant race in the coming years.

 

[dredinis21]

I just don't see the FO spending big money on Lester or any big time free agent. I think Duffy showed just enough for them to go Duffy as their 1st option at third and I see them going dumpster diving for someone like Morse.

I wish they would go for it with Mocada(sp) but have Giants ever gone all out for the TOP foreign player available during the off season? I know they picked up Daniel Carbonel but he wasn't the top guy available and with the new rules limiting (lux type tax) money to pay foreign free agents he was a more affordable piece....not saying he couldn't turn out to be a top guy but if he was put in the draft in June he wouldn't be high 1st rounder and as such he is probably less than 50% to be something above average but it was a good gamble.

Basically I don't see the FO putting out big money to anyone this year.....I would have preferred to keep Panda for the post season reason.... and it could turn out well in the future but unless Cainer comes back very good next year I see the Giants only being within 5 to 10 (probably closer to 10) games of making the playoffs and it will take someone coming up as a starter (above average+) in the next year or 2 to keep them in a pennant race in the coming years.

Osvaldo Fernandez comes to mind. Not the outcome you wanted, but he did come highly regarded.

 

[dredinis21]

I saw we were kicking the tires on Lester....any word in the Bay about kicking some Scherzer tires while we are at it?

 

[Montalban]

That being said, if we can get Headley for 4/50, we should, IMHO. If his back is healthy, he could well be better than our last 3B.

I've always liked Headley, I just think his best days are behind him.

 

[Montalban]

I just don't see the FO spending big money on Lester or any big time free agent. I think Duffy showed just enough for them to go Duffy as their 1st option at third and I see them going dumpster diving for someone like Morse.

I wish they would go for it with Mocada(sp) but have Giants ever gone all out for the TOP foreign player available during the off season? I know they picked up Daniel Carbonel but he wasn't the top guy available and with the new rules limiting (lux type tax) money to pay foreign free agents he was a more affordable piece....not saying he couldn't turn out to be a top guy but if he was put in the draft in June he wouldn't be high 1st rounder and as such he is probably less than 50% to be something above average but it was a good gamble.

Basically I don't see the FO putting out big money to anyone this year.....I would have preferred to keep Panda for the post season reason.... and it could turn out well in the future but unless Cainer comes back very good next year I see the Giants only being within 5 to 10 (probably closer to 10) games of making the playoffs and it will take someone coming up as a starter (above average+) in the next year or 2 to keep them in a pennant race in the coming years.

I don't want to spend big money on Lester either. He's too erratic.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I've always liked Headley, I just think his best days are behind him.

I don't disagree, but he's 30, and they discovered an easily treatable back issue last year. After that, he had like a .760 OPS, and he has a very good glove.

If he can hit .275 with 15 HR and a .750 OPS and a solid glove, we should make a run at him.

 

[msgkings322]

I don't want to spend big money on Lester either. He's too erratic.

No Lester, no Headley, no Panda....what's the plan, Montalban?

 

[Mays-Fan]

No Lester, no Headley, no Panda....what's the plan, Montalban?

The San Francisco Grizzlies!

 

[Mays-Fan]

WAR by year Headley (CH) vs Sandoval (PS):

2014: CH 3.5, PS 3.4
2013: CH 3.4, PS 2.5
2012: CH 6.0, PS 2.0

What's a WAR worth? $6 mm? $7 mm? This is almost a no-brainer at 4/50, or even a bit more, given our needs.

 

[Mays-Fan]

SF Giants Payroll 2015 - with Headley and Melky

Budget assumptions: For 2015 payroll, in rough terms, start with 2014. BBRef has us at $166.6mm, which needs to be adjusted for Peavy. BBRef has us at $14.5 - $3.0 or $11.5 net. We only net paid Peavy $2mm, per MLBTR. So subtract $11.5 - 2.0 = 9.5 from $166.6, and we are at an adjusted $157mm for 2014. Add 7% for FO payroll expansion, about $11mm, and we are at $168mm for 2015. Nothing new here, just reasonable estimation on my part, IMO. We may go a few million higher because of WSC III.

Starting Pitchers (5)
Timmy $18.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Hudson $12.0 fixed
Vogey $6.0 fixed FA
Bum $6.75 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $62.75

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.0 fixed
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Casilla $5.0 fixed
Machi $0.5 Pre-Arb-2
Strickland $0.5
Petit $2.5 Arb-2
1 other $0.5

# Bullpen Subtotal $19.0

C/IF (8)
Buster $16.5 fixed
HSan $1.0 Arb-1
Susac $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $4.5 Arb-2
Panik $0.5 Pre-Arb
Craw $2.0 Arb-1
Arias $1.45 fixed
Chase Headley $12.5 FA

# C/IF Subtotal $38.95

OF (5)
Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $18.5 fixed
Blanco $3.5 Arb-2
Melky Cabrera $12.5 FA
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Williamson/Perez/Brown/Carbonell/Parker)

# OF Subtotal $45.25

Off roster: Scutaro $6.7 fixed

Prelim Total $172.65 (25 players + Scoots)

 

[Mays-Fan]

CF Pagan
2B Panik
C Posey
RF Pence
LF Melky
1B Belt
3B Headley
SS Crawford
P

 

[Montalban]

I don't disagree, but he's 30, and they discovered an easily treatable back issue last year. After that, he had like a .760 OPS, and he has a very good glove.

If he can hit .275 with 15 HR and a .750 OPS and a solid glove, we should make a run at him.

Agreed because that's exactly what Sandoval gives you.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Agreed because that's exactly what Sandoval gives you.

You can even replace the Panda hats with Headley Heads.

 

[Montalban]

CF Pagan
2B Panik
C Posey
RF Pence
LF Melky
1B Belt
3B Headley
SS Crawford
P

I keep seeing Cabrerra in your lists; is that just your wish or do you have some reason to believe he will sign here?

 

[Mays-Fan]

I keep seeing Cabrerra in your lists; is that just your wish or do you have some reason to believe he will sign here?

Just my wish, but things that make sense have a way of coming true...

 

[Montalban]

Just my wish, but things that make sense have a way of coming true...

Cabrera would fit the bill in LF. He hit .300 last year with 15 or 16 homers. Anything close to that this year would be a welcome addition for the Giants.

 

[msgkings322]

Cabrera would fit the bill in LF. He hit .300 last year with 15 or 16 homers. Anything close to that this year would be a welcome addition for the Giants.

In Toronto.

Melky Cabrera would be a good fit, but there's something about him that doesn't work for the Giants, I can't quite remember what it is. I wish someone here would post it.