Playoff chances

[Kreton]

Found a pretty cool site about playoff chances.

http://www.playoffrace.com/NFL/Lions.aspx

PLAYOFFRACE

 

[Dougie McBuckets]

Lions' run defense alone is good enough to make me believe they can make noise in the playoffs.

 

[Thruthefog]

The Bucs have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Bears.

 

[tpaulus_2]

Lions' run defense alone is good enough to make me believe they can make noise in the playoffs.

I agree- playoffs are about running the ball and playing stout defense. We don't run the ball well, but we stop the run better than any team has in the last 8 seasons. Not saying we're going to get in the playoffs and just rock shit, but our defense gives us a chance to win any game we're in. We've already shut down the best offense in the conference (GB) and got the better of the next best offense in the conference (New Orleans).

 

[tpaulus_2]

Cool link Kreton, but I'm not too sure about their math. According to the table they laid out, back-to-back losses by the Packers in these next two weeks would only boost our chances of making the playoffs by like 3.5%. However, if we beat the Bucs next week our chances go up by over 13%.

In reality, two Packers losses like that would boos our playoff chances by way, way, way more than 3%. While that scenario is extremely unlikely, since the Pack is really good and all, but if they lose two of their next four, and we win our next three, then we clinch the division, I think... That last game at GB would then be irrelevant.

 

[TwoCents22]

Not true TPaul. If Packers lose 2 and we sweep, that last game is for the division(depending on tie breakers).

However, if we sweep the next 3, I think we clinch the wild card(depending on tie breakers). That's why if the Packers lose our playoff chances slightly increase, basically the likelihood of us beating out the Packers comes down to week 17(barring us losing) and the Packers losing 1 or even 2 before then most likely won't change that. Our wins are more important to the wild card race.

 

[tpaulus_2]

If the Packers lose today we're both 8-4. If they lose one more game over the next three weeks and we don't, that gives us a one game lead heading into week 17. I guess I'm not sure what happens, then, if they beat us and we both end up 11-5, withe each team having one victory over the other team?

 

[Microwahevo]

If the Packers lose today we're both 8-4. If they lose one more game over the next three weeks and we don't, that gives us a one game lead heading into week 17. I guess I'm not sure what happens, then, if they beat us and we both end up 11-5, withe each team having one victory over the other team?

If we end the season with the same record as the Pack and each have a victory over each other, the next tie breaker is division record.

After that it's best W-L record against common opponents.

Then it goes to best W-L % within the conference.

Then there's a bunch more shit after that.

 

[Kreton]

Cool link Kreton, but I'm not too sure about their math. According to the table they laid out, back-to-back losses by the Packers in these next two weeks would only boost our chances of making the playoffs by like 3.5%. However, if we beat the Bucs next week our chances go up by over 13%.

In reality, two Packers losses like that would boos our playoff chances by way, way, way more than 3%. While that scenario is extremely unlikely, since the Pack is really good and all, but if they lose two of their next four, and we win our next three, then we clinch the division, I think... That last game at GB would then be irrelevant.

It adds up. If pack drops the next 2, and we win vs Tampa, according to the chart our playoff odds would be around 90%. You have to think the individual line is considering we may or may not win. Pack could drop 2 and we still wouldn't have clinched even with beating tb.

 

[tpaulus_2]

It adds up. If pack drops the next 2, and we win vs Tampa, according to the chart our playoff odds would be around 90%. You have to think the individual line is considering we may or may not win. Pack could drop 2 and we still wouldn't have clinched even with beating tb.

True, especially for next week, but if the Packers lose today, then we're back on top of the division. Seems like that outcome should have substantially more than a 1.88% (or something close to that is what they have down) impact on our playoff chances, imo...

 

[tpaulus_2]

If we end the season with the same record as the Pack and each have a victory over each other, the next tie breaker is division record.

After that it's best W-L record against common opponents.

Then it goes to best W-L % within the conference.

Then there's a bunch more shit after that.

So we really want them to lose today to the Pats, then again against Buffalo. They already lost to the Saints. They beat Carolina, though. Too bad Miami gave them a win in the last few seconds, that would have helped us a bunch if we end up tying them...

 

[Kreton]

True, especially for next week, but if the Packers lose today, then we're back on top of the division. Seems like that outcome should have substantially more than a 1.88% (or something close to that is what they have down) impact on our playoff chances, imo...

Wed be on top right now, but week 17 would still determine it. And that is 50/50 at best. Or we could lose to tb or Manny ect. A lot of variables.

 

[jdwills126]

The Loss to the cardinals is huge as I see them losing 3 games.

The Seahawks should win the West if the Cards loose 3 games. I can't see the 49ers getting back into it.

The South is a joke and should be excused from further embarrassment by forgoing the playoffs.

The Cowboys have hit their annual second half swoon so I do not see them having a better record than Detroit. The Eagles look like a lock for the East.

If Detroit wins 3 games they are in and may win the division. The West should get the second playoff team with them all having to play each other and hurting their own chances.

How many Lions fans would like to have a redo vs the Bills?

 

[tpaulus_2]

Who do you see the Cardinals losing to (not being argumentative, just curious which teams)?

They've lost two all year so far, and I think they handle ATL today. That would have them losing 3 of their last 4 games. They're not as dangerous with Stanton at QB, but they're a well-coached team with a stout defense and playmakers in the passing game...

 

[jdwills126]

Who do you see the Cardinals losing to (not being argumentative, just curious which teams)?

They've lost two all year so far, and I think they handle ATL today. That would have them losing 3 of their last 4 games. They're not as dangerous with Stanton at QB, but they're a well-coached team with a stout defense and playmakers in the passing game...

I think they loose the 3 games on the road they have left. Seattle, St Louis, and San Fran. The Cardinals have looked good but the West is tough and I can't see Stanton going on the road and winning. Their best bet is St Louis but believe it or not the Rams have a very tough defense and play well at home.

The KC game at home will be no cake walk for the Cards either as the Chiefs are battling and have the one thing that can be a difference maker....a very strong run game. At best they split the last 4. I am calling the game vs the Falcons as a win for Arizona. But that would be a tough nut for Detroit as they both finish say 1-5 and the Cards get the head to head.

 

[Kreton]

Of the NFC teams with good odds to make the playoffs, who worries you the most/least?

Cards, Packers, Saints, Falcons, Cowboys, Eagles, seahawks, niners.

 

[jdwills126]

Just to get into the playoffs it's the Cards as I mentioned above the head to head loss is a killer and I do think a 10-6 tam misses the playoffs this year.

As for the team I would not want to play....The Eagles. They are getting hot at the right time and that fast pace offense would hurt Detroit with defense subs and wear down the D-Line. The biggest factor is Farley and will he ever be back?

 

[tpaulus_2]

I think they loose the 3 games on the road they have left. Seattle, St Louis, and San Fran. The Cardinals have looked good but the West is tough and I can't see Stanton going on the road and winning. Their best bet is St Louis but believe it or not the Rams have a very tough defense and play well at home.

The KC game at home will be no cake walk for the Cards either as the Chiefs are battling and have the one thing that can be a difference maker....a very strong run game. At best they split the last 4. I am calling the game vs the Falcons as a win for Arizona. But that would be a tough nut for Detroit as they both finish say 1-5 and the Cards get the head to head.

I think that game against Seattle is in Arizona. I'm pretty sure that loss against the Squwaks was in Seattle...

 

[jdwills126]

I think that game against Seattle is in Arizona. I'm pretty sure that loss against the Squwaks was in Seattle...

You could be right but the way Seattle looked on Thanksgiving I take them at Arizona. If San Fran has nothing to play for they could be just mailing it in the last game. My thought is the 49ers will play out the season even if they have nothing to play for.

And as I said I think they beat the Falcons but this is a trap game if I ever saw one.

 

[tpaulus_2]

I also think the Seahawks beat them regardless of where they play, but I think they win the rest of their games. They take ATL today at home, KC at home, and beat San Fran and St. Louis on the road, imo.

Definitely a tough schedule for them, though. They could conceivably lose their last four.

Seattle also faces a pretty tough final four games, and it's not out of the question that they lose three of their final four. They could do that and still win the division, depending on what Arizona does.

Philly's schedule is no cakewalk, either, with Seattle, then 3 straight division games to close it out.

If Arizona wins today they have a pretty good hold on the #1 seed, but if they lose the race for the best finish in the NFC is wide open between Arizona, Seattle, Philly, GB, and us, imo. Who can close out the best and get home field advantage?