Peyton Manning Thread Revisited

[MW49ers5]

A franchise QB? It seems franchise bridge loan would be more appropriate.

 

[ViperVisor]

We play the Giants next season and are in the same conference so that is a bit of a strike against us but Eli just won another Super Bowl so I don't know how bad Peyton feels about being in his way.
I'm sure he'd prefer the AFC but Miami isn't a better option than us.

They actually go to Indianapolis in 2012. THAT would be a SHEET OF SHAT STORM.
Bro vs. Bro is a fun game compared to that.

And the nonsense media microscope that comes with 2 games vs. NE and NYJ every year.

 

[BINGO]

Originally Published: February 8, 2012

How Peyton Manning shifts the odds

Want a good value prop bet? Look at these eight destinations for No. 18

Peyton Manning has the ability to improve several teams' Super Bowl XLVII odds.

[2012 look-ahead package:]
Millman: Early Super Bowl XLVII values | Sprow: How Manning shifts the odds ​

numberFire: Projecting 2012 playoffs​

On Monday, when I checked in with Jay Kornegay, who runs the book at the Las Vegas Hotel (formerly the Las Vegas Hilton), I was shocked. Where Peyton Manning might end up if and when he's released by the Colts isn't reflected in next year's posted Super Bowl odds. "We haven't moved anything … yet," he emailed.

That means no little bump for the Washington Redskins, or a nudge for the Miami Dolphins. Nothing. The action may be light seven months before kickoff, but I figured even the scent of rumors regarding where Manning might land could move some lines in the same way the hint of mad cow disease affects grain futures. The Redskins are currently 100-1, based on posted 20 percent odds they get Manning; couldn't that dip closer to 70-1 on rumors alone? So far: no. Books just won't budge on futures without something solid. Not yet, at least.

But this is good news for you. Manning might be the single greatest potential odds-shifting free agent in the league's history. He's the ultimate value prop, to the point where an equal play on every suitor might make sense. R.J. Bell of Pregame.com checked around with some sharps and told me Brett Favre signing with Minnesota may have pushed the Vikings' SB odds from about 30-1 to 15-1 -- and that was Favre coming off a pretty bad one-year run with the Jets. (And those Vikes were an INT from the Super Bowl.) Indy's poor performance this season is a testament to Manning's value.

So let's consider the futures field now and how dramatically Peyton could shift the odds and make any of these teams a good value prop bet. These go in order of teams that would be impacted the most. Simulations courtesy of AccuScore; odds via the LVH. Updated odds? Those are all me.


Arizona Cardinals | Current 2013 SB odds: 50-1 | Win projection: 7.0
Kevin Kolb has a $10 million cap number next season. Larry Fitzgerald is at a hair over $20 million. Bottom line: Arizona would have to creatively shoehorn, or perhaps reshuffle, the compensation for Fitz. But Manning makes Arizona the favorite in the NFC West by any projection you can find.
Win jump with Manning: 10.7 (plus-3.7) | Updated odds: 14-1


Washington Redskins | 2013 SB odds: 100-1 | Win projection: 4.6
If that win projection depresses you, Skins fans, remember that it's with your current QB situation, The BeckRex Effect, which isn't even a good band name. The fit for Peyton makes a lot of sense, and he would look great in the system (think Houston's), but the presence of Eli Manning in the same division could lessen the appeal. That said, the Skins could be the most aggressive financially. As a value prop, it's a 4-to-1 jump in odds alone.
Win jump: 8.1 (plus-3.5) | Updated odds: 25-1


Miami Dolphins | 2013 SB odds: 50-1 | Win projection: 7.4
Manning makes a lot of sense in Miami, diminished only by the fact that so does Matt Flynn, given Joe Philbin's presence. Miami has improved their blocking, can run the ball, and also have a nice trio of targets in the passing game, all nice draws. The win jump projection is significant and makes the unlucky Dolphins of this past season virtual playoff locks next season. Want a 15-1 team at 50-1?
Win jump: 10.5 (plus-3.1) | Updated odds: 15-1


New York Jets | 2013 SB odds: 20-1 | Win projection: 7.7
Odds he lands here? Small. That said, it'll remain interesting as long as Tom Moore's on the payroll -- Manning has never had another offensive coordinator as an NFL quarterback. Considering the Jets were the 29th most efficient passing game in 2011, if Manning wanted to come there, it'd be something to consider. And remember, it wouldn't be the first time general manager Mike Tannenbaum made this kind of move.
Win jump: 10.2 (plus-2.5) | Updated odds: 9-1


Cleveland Browns | 2013 SB odds: 100-1 | Win projection: 5.3
From what we hear, the Browns are more likely to have Robert Griffin III taking snaps than Manning next season, but they're included because of the QB questions. The win jump is only this low because of the rough AFC North schedule. Remember that new offensive coordinator Brad Childress has been down this road before with Favre -- more than once, in fact.
Win jump: 7.8 (plus-2.5) | Updated odds: 35-1


Seattle Seahawks | 2013 SB odds: 60-1 | Win projection: 7.3
The Vikings once went after Favre to avoid a season of Tarvaris Jackson. They went 12-4. Seattle is a well-constructed team, save for the large question mark behind center.
Win jump: 9.7 (plus-2.4) | Updated odds: 18-1


San Francisco 49ers | 2013 SB odds: 20-1 | Win projection: 9.6
Hold on, 49ers fans. Before you gripe about the current win projection total, please know that every model in the world (even the human model) sees regression for San Fran unless it improves as a team, because its plus-28 turnover margin was not only historically good, but will be impossible to repeat. Of the six teams that were at or better than that margin in history, none improved their win totals in the next season. No way around it: Manning makes San Francisco better and is just as much a bridge to your QB of the future as the incumbent is.
Win jump: 11.5 (plus-1.9) | Updated odds: 8-1


Kansas City Chiefs | 2013 SB odds: 50-1 | Win projection: 6.8
In some ways, K.C. quietly makes a lot of sense. Matt Cassel's cap hit is down to a hair over $5 million for next season, so the Chiefs have the capability to be aggressive, and they're in a division that is up for grabs. They should be improved in terms of personnel, getting three of their best players back from injury. Certainly a good value prop if the SB odds are still at 50-1 an hour before Manning signs.
Win jump: 8.5 (plus-1.8) | Updated odds: 16-1


Chris Sprow is a senior editor for ESPN Insider. He reports and edits on many sports and works year-round with Mel Kiper on NFL draft coverage. He also oversees ESPN's Rumor Central and has been a regular guest on ESPN networks in that role. You can find his ESPN archives here and find him on Twitter here.