PECOTA projects us in the playoffs

[tzill]

Baseball Prospectus

Of course, they pick us to finish 11 games behind the Bridegrooms, and only one team to have more than 89 wins.

Interesting, nonetheless.

 

[msgkings322]

This analysis has the Dogs scoring 55 more runs than the Giants so if you buy what they're selling they think the Dodgers have a notably better offense.

 

[msgkings322]

Baseball Prospectus

Of course, they pick us to finish 11 games behind the Bridegrooms, and only one team to have more than 89 wins.

Interesting, nonetheless.

'Only one team'....heh

Let's be honest, those fucks in LA with no dollar limit have bought the best team in baseball.

 

[SFGRTB]

'Only one team'....heh

Let's be honest, those fucks in LA with no dollar limit have bought the best team in baseball.

Doesn't look like they're done buying either. They want Arroyo as their 5th starter. Rat bastards already have 6 that they are paying a premium price for.

 

[msgkings322]

Doesn't look like they're done buying either. They want Arroyo as their 5th starter. Rat bastards already have 6 that they are paying a premium price for.

I used to hate the Yankees. Still do, but I transferred some from that account to the Dodger hating one, which was always fairly full anyway.

 

[msgkings322]

Those LA fucks have 10 players making over $10 million next year. Including a set up guy in the pen with a big beard.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Those LA fucks have 10 players making over $10 million next year. Including a set up guy in the pen with a big beard.

It's even more disgusting than the above sounds.

They have FOUR players making over $20M (Giants have ONE)
They have THREE MORE making over $15M (Giants have TWO)
They have THREE MORE making at least $10M (Giants have THREE)

The Dodgers are spending almost $80M more than the Giants. $80M is more than about one third of MLB teams paid for their entire salary budget in 2013.

 

[tzill]

32 teams and a hard cap. I've been saying this for years.

 

[SF11704]

Living in NY I have always hated the Yankees. Hated the way they spend and how they build their teams. But, can't really arguye with what they have done. In the playoffs 18 out of the past 20 times (or something similar). Sort of proves you can 'purchase' a playoff team but still look like crap in the WS. Guess you can buy for the long run but it doesn't hold true once you're in the playoffs. Now the damn Doyers have adopted the same strategy. I can see them in the playoffs for years to come. I also think it's going to be very difficult to take the division from them as well. Shit, last year they had a stretch of 42-8. All they need to do is play 500 ball around something like that and you have 98 wins. Don't expect that again any time soon but it's still a scary thought.

 

[msgkings322]

32 teams and a hard cap. I've been saying this for years.

You can say it for years but a hard cap ain't ever happening. MAYBE with a floor too, but I doubt that ever happens.

32 teams is another thing, that would help...but where do you add the other teams? We're already saying Oakland needs to move so that would take away a potential new team's city. Although I think they are now working on building a stadium in Oakland so maybe they don't have to move.

Just for shits and gigs where would you put 2 more teams? Charlotte? New Jersey? Las Vegas? Salt Lake? Portland?

 

[calsnowskier]

You can say it for years but a hard cap ain't ever happening. MAYBE with a floor too, but I doubt that ever happens.

32 teams is another thing, that would help...but where do you add the other teams? We're already saying Oakland needs to move so that would take away a potential new team's city. Although I think they are now working on building a stadium in Oakland so maybe they don't have to move.

Just for shits and gigs where would you put 2 more teams? Charlotte? New Jersey? Las Vegas? Salt Lake? Portland?

I would think Charlotte would be a no-brainer. I think they want to avoid Vegas, as all major sports have. SLC, Portland, OKC and Indianapolis are all possibilities. Maybe San Juan??? Is there nearly enough stability down there to even think about it? I know Mexico City is a no-go for the foreseeable future.

However, I think the league needs to settle the Oakland and Tampa issues first.

 

[msgkings322]

I would think Charlotte would be a no-brainer. I think they want to avoid Vegas, as all major sports have. SLC, Portland, OKC and Indianapolis are all possibilities. Maybe San Juan??? Is there nearly enough stability down there to even think about it? I know Mexico City is a no-go for the foreseeable future.

However, I think the league needs to settle the Oakland and Tampa issues first.

Ah yes, I like your OKC and Indy ideas. San Juan is an absolute no go, Puerto Rico is circling the drain economically. That's actually a thing happening right now.

I don't think people consider New Jersey enough...the NY metro area can support at least 1 more team, some metrics show it can handle 2 more. Both the Yankees and Mets stadiums are pretty long treks from NJ. And baseball has generally been more successful in Northern cities, the South is more into football. I think that's a good spot for Tampa to move to if they don't want a new team there outright.

 

[MarcoPolo]

32 teams and a hard cap. I've been saying this for years.

I'd like to see a more aggressive salary tax.

Tax starts at $120M.

120-140M : 20% of amount over $120M, plus :
140-150M : 40% of amount over $140M, +
150-160M : 60% of amount over $150M, +
160-170M : 80% of amount over $160M, +
over $170M : 100% tax on all salary over $170M

money is distributed between teams who don't pay the tax, pro rata, according to their local revenue (including local TV revenue), but only to those teams or team ownership that don't own any interest in their local TV broadcast network (because you hide revenue that way). Teams can only receive a maximum of $$$ from MLB (all sources combined) that is 80% of their total salary budget (including support staff, medical costs, insurance for players, travel cost, etc. Player costs, so to speak).

Using that formula, the top 7 teams in salary would have paid the tax in 2013, which sounds about right. The first (smallest) salaried team subject to the tax would have paid around $1.5M, the Giants would have paid a little under $4M in salary tax in 2013. The Yankees and Dodgers would have paid around $60M or so (each). Sounds fair to me.

 

[msgkings322]

By the way, PECOTA seems to be a lot better at predicting individual stats than team wins.
From 2003-2008 the average error between predicted team wins and actual wins was 5.91 wins, 7.71 wins, 5.14, 4,94, 4.31, and 8.5

PECOTA - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[SFGRTB]

Ah yes, I like your OKC and Indy ideas. San Juan is an absolute no go, Puerto Rico is circling the drain economically. That's actually a thing happening right now.

I don't think people consider New Jersey enough...the NY metro area can support at least 1 more team, some metrics show it can handle 2 more. Both the Yankees and Mets stadiums are pretty long treks from NJ. And baseball has generally been more successful in Northern cities, the South is more into football. I think that's a good spot for Tampa to move to if they don't want a new team there outright.

I'd say Dallas too. If they did 4, 8 team divisions then it would be pretty equal geographically for TV markets and travel wouldn't be that terrible.

West: Seattle-SF-Oakland-LA-Anaheim-SD-AZ-Colorado

Central: Cleveland-Detroit-KC-STL-Chicago-Chicago-Milwaukee-Minnesota

South: Dallas-Arlington-Huston-Miami-Tampa-Atlanta-Charlotte-Cincy

East: New York-New York-Baltimore-Washington-Boston-Philly-Pittsburgh-Toronto

 

[calsnowskier]

I'd say Dallas too. If they did 4, 8 team divisions then it would be pretty equal geographically for TV markets and travel wouldn't be that terrible.

West: Seattle-SF-Oakland-LA-Anaheim-SD-AZ-Colorado

Central: Cleveland-Detroit-KC-STL-Chicago-Chicago-Milwaukee-Minnesota

South: Dallas-Arlington-Huston-Miami-Tampa-Atlanta-Charlotte-Cincy

East: New York-New York-Baltimore-Washington-Boston-Philly-Pittsburgh-Toronto

I know the Rangers are becoming a force, but would they be able to continue to compete with another team in their market? I do not want to create another SF/Oakland situation. If you want to go into Texas, Austin and San Antonio would be better options than a second Dallas team.

I fear any realignment that removes the NL/AL split. That would be a prime spot to introduce the DH to the entire game, and I would HATE that. I also think large divisions would hurt the races more than help them. Smaller divisions with a sub-WC race opens the races up to lots of teams and extends the effective regular season.

 

[calsnowskier]

Further, alignment becomes a pretty major issue when you want to keep rivals together, AND keep markets and travel time somewhat logical. There was a decent discussion on the MLB-Gen board about a year or so ago that really looked at the details of re-alignment, and the western teams caused some real ugly alignments (assuming you want to bend-over-backwards to keep the Giants and doggies in the same division).

 

[tzill]

Living in NY I have always hated the Yankees. Hated the way they spend and how they build their teams. But, can't really arguye with what they have done. In the playoffs 18 out of the past 20 times (or something similar). Sort of proves you can 'purchase' a playoff team but still look like crap in the WS. Guess you can buy for the long run but it doesn't hold true once you're in the playoffs. Now the damn Doyers have adopted the same strategy. I can see them in the playoffs for years to come. I also think it's going to be very difficult to take the division from them as well. Shit, last year they had a stretch of 42-8. All they need to do is play 500 ball around something like that and you have 98 wins. Don't expect that again any time soon but it's still a scary thought.

I'd bet you can count on one hand the number of teams that have had a .840 stretch over 50 games in the last 50 years. It's unreal how rare that is. I wouldn't worry about the Bridegrooms doing it again. They've got a lot of health questions and I'm not convinced they're solid offensively. In any event, all a GM can do is build his team for the 162 and let the playoffs happen. I think we're in pretty good shape heading into ST. There are no teams out there without flaws; we're in the mix.

 

[tzill]

You can say it for years but a hard cap ain't ever happening. MAYBE with a floor too, but I doubt that ever happens.

32 teams is another thing, that would help...but where do you add the other teams? We're already saying Oakland needs to move so that would take away a potential new team's city. Although I think they are now working on building a stadium in Oakland so maybe they don't have to move.

Just for shits and gigs where would you put 2 more teams? Charlotte? New Jersey? Las Vegas? Salt Lake? Portland?

I doubt a cap will ever happen either, since the big market teams are paying off the small market owners to NOT vote for one. But it's still the only fair way to run things.

Adding teams would be easy: Mexico City. It could support 2, maybe 3 teams without problem. Let the A'ss move to Las Vegas and boom! Problem solved. If the Marlins want to move to Mexico that would be fine as well.

 

[tzill]

By the way, PECOTA seems to be a lot better at predicting individual stats than team wins.
From 2003-2008 the average error between predicted team wins and actual wins was 5.91 wins, 7.71 wins, 5.14, 4,94, 4.31, and 8.5

PECOTA - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And I'd bet that average error has been on the low side -- PECOTA is notoriously conservative. Thus making the Bridegroom projection a double head scratcher.