OT: Could the Pats be on the decline?

[JDM]

His elusiveness in the pocket isn't speed. It's awareness.

 

[Rathman44]

He's set to average a little over 11 mil a year for the next five years. 30mil is guaranteed, but he has 1 and 2 mil base salaries the next two years, followed by 7,8, and 9 following that. Considering he easily could have averaged 20 mil a year like Peyton, just over half that has to be seen as team friendly.

You're making a major assumption that Brady won't want to be paid as a top QB (if he in fact is still playing as one of the best) and thus renegotiate his contract in a couple years. The new union deal wouldn't really prevent him from leveraging a hold-out because he'd actually be threatening retirement rather than "holding out." It wouldn't look good to fans if the Pats didn't pay him properly to come back. I know the argument is going to be that he's got enough money already and wouldn't need the raise (and I agree) but his agent and union reps will most likely push him to do otherwise even if he is that unselfish.

If his performance declines, like it has for most QBs in their late 30s, the Pats will be guaranteeing him a lot of dough for crappy play. I see this as a very Brady-friendly deal where he was just guaranteed more money and the Pats are taking greater long-term risks in order to get some short-term cap relief. The cap relief is only worth it if they can win in the next couple years...with all their other problems this is looking more difficult imo.

 

[JDM]

If Brady wanted to be paid as a top QB he would be doing so now.

 

[JDM]

But if he retires, we move on. It's that simple. He wants to win; I believe we're in position to win. If he tries to leverage his way into something, he loses, and we move on.

 

[Rathman44]

But if he retires, we move on. It's that simple. He wants to win; I believe we're in position to win.If he tries to leverage his way into something, he loses, and we move on.

except that won't happen.

 

[JDM]

How do you figure? Either he plays to his contract or he retires. We have mallett ready to take over, and if he isn't a long term solution we look for the next one.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

For now, the Pats go as Brady goes. As long as he's one of the best, they'll be playoff contenders if not SB contenders. But they're not what they were a few years ago IMO, and with Brady aging, they'll need to find someone to take his place.

 

[Rathman44]

How do you figure? Either he plays to his contract or he retires. We have mallett ready to take over, and if he isn't a long term solution we look for the next one.

If Brady is a top 5 QB in the 2014 season and leads them deep in the playoffs, which is what they're expecting considering they guaranteed him more money, do you really think the Pats will just let him go if he demands to be paid to his performance level? As a Niners fan it was incredibly hard to see Joe go and it still goes down as a very controversial decision even though we had a HOFer on deck. The Pats owner has gone on record that he never wants this to turn into a "Joe Montana" situation. The only way I see them letting him go is if his performance drops considerably and most of the fans are on board. In that case, they're screwed since they guaranteed him all that money.

NFL contracts are a funny business because rarely do you see guys play out their contracts to exactly how they were originally drawn up. Most are renegotiated, restructured, extended, or cut due to minimal guaranteed money. The NFL contract situation is vasty different than other professional sports and thus they are negotiated quite differently and often. It is quite clear that Brady won't play this contract out as it has been drawn up. It will definitely change whether he retires early, gets injured, play suffers, or he outperforms his age. You can count on it. And that is why this contract is no more than creating cap room for this year (which they didn't seem to take advantage of) and next year, while Brady gets the insurance of more guaranteed money. If they don't capitalize on this year and next, it won't be worth it, and you can certainly bet Brady will demand more $ if his play is still the same.

 

[erckm510]

If Brady is a top 5 QB in the 2014 season and leads them deep in the playoffs, which is what they're expecting considering they guaranteed him more money, do you really think the Pats will just let him go if he demands to be paid to his performance level? As a Niners fan it was incredibly hard to see Joe go and it still goes down as a very controversial decision even though we had a HOFer on deck. The Pats owner has gone on record that he never wants this to turn into a "Joe Montana" situation. The only way I see them letting him go is if his performance drops considerably and most of the fans are on board. In that case, they're screwed since they guaranteed him all that money.

NFL contracts are a funny business because rarely do you see guys play out their contracts to exactly how they were originally drawn up. Most are renegotiated, restructured, extended, or cut due to minimal guaranteed money. The NFL contract situation is vasty different than other professional sports and thus they are negotiated quite differently and often. It is quite clear that Brady won't play this contract out as it has been drawn up. It will definitely change whether he retires early, gets injured, play suffers, or he outperforms his age. You can count on it. And that is why this contract is no more than creating cap room for this year (which they didn't seem to take advantage of) and next year, while Brady gets the insurance of more guaranteed money. If they don't capitalize on this year and next, it won't be worth it, and you can certainly bet Brady will demand more $ if his play is still the same.

Then why did Brady sign that cheap extension? He was already doing these things.

 

[JDM]

I don't think your assessment is very accurate. I understand perfectly well how contracts work. But if Brady wants to retire, he retires. The patriots under Kraft and belichick have never let personal feelings affect business. He isn't going to hold out, he could theoretically threaten retirement but they let him retire. He really doesn't have leverage.

 

[Zig]

Especially now that it looks like Hernandez won't be playing, this looks like the worst Patriots' team in a decade. I think the window for Tom Brady to win another Super Bowl in New England has closed. If Jamie Collins & Aaron Dobson both hit really, really big that could change things, but that's a long shot.

If the Pats are smart, it might be time to start thinking about trading Tom Brady for a king's ransom & totally re-building. And if they're smart, they'd do it before it starts to look like his play will begin to drop off. That would be enough to give 'em the ammo' to seriously re-build for the next 10 years if the front office has the foresight to look 3 years into the future. This would especially be easier if they think Mallett can be the next great NE QB.

lol again with the rebuilding thing...They have been doing just that the last few years. They have one of the youngest teams in the league which I told you the last time you started this same thread...Maybe a link will help you grasp it?

ProFootballWeekly.com - The children of the NFL: League's youngest teams


5. Patriots / 25.68 years — It might be a surprise to see the Patriots on this list, but Bill Belichick has employed younger players throughout the past few seasons and hasn’t been afraid to release veterans. Tom Brady, 35, is the senior citizen of the group, and the team’s best player. A majority of the Patriots (34) have four years or less of NFL experience. Eleven of their 22 starters vs. the Jets in Week Seven had three years of experience or less
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from last year but I believe they are even younger now. either way, most of the team is young. The rebuild is just about done, they don't need to start it now, that's crazy talk.

 

[Rathman44]

Then why did Brady sign that cheap extension? He was already doing these things.

1. Brady doubled his guaranteed money.
2. This contract won't be played out like it is drawn up. It will be restructured just like most QB contracts.

 

[Rathman44]

I don't think your assessment is very accurate. I understand perfectly well how contracts work. But if Brady wants to retire, he retires. The patriots under Kraft and belichick have never let personal feelings affect business. He isn't going to hold out, he could theoretically threaten retirement but they let him retire. He really doesn't have leverage.

Kraft has said time and time again that he will try to keep Brady on as long as possible. It's the one guy he seems willing to break the mold for. But hey, your a Pats fan and should know more than me...maybe he's indicated differently in the local media?? I just remember his Joe Montana analogy.

NFL contracts, especially franchise QB contracts, are constantly being restructured. It's interesting that you think this one is one of the few exceptions.

 

[JDM]

I don't remember Brady forcing more money at any point. He has certainly been well-paid, but any adjustments have been only in the context of extensions if I am correct.

He cares too much about his legacy to sully it with some petty squabbling over a couple mil, especially at the cost of being in the position to win. He wants more rings, and I believe we can get him them.

 

[erckm510]

1. Brady doubled his guaranteed money.
2. This contract won't be played out like it is drawn up. It will be restructured just like most QB contracts.

1. He did? Maybe I'm reading this article wrong but says he's getting the same amount of money. He's just getting all the money in signing bonus now so it's guaranteed.

Crunching the numbers on Patriots quarterback Tom Brady?s contract extension - Sports - The Boston Globe

"In essence, the renegotiation means Brady will make $57 million over five seasons, and all of it is guaranteed.

Brady is still getting the money he originally signed for over the coming two years, but he made it easier for New England to add more pieces to the roster, players who might get the Patriots another Super Bowl ring instead of another Super Bowl disappointment."

2. He just restructured it. Of course he can restructure it but why? He's not going to get more guaranteed money. What kind of leverage does he have the older he gets?

 

[JDM]

Yeah, I'm glad I'm not the only one lost on his point. He has a big chunk guaranteed, but what he is making per year is extremely team friendly. In my mind there's still no one else I would take to lead my team, but he is well below the highest paid QB and happy with that.

 

[Rathman44]

1. He did? Maybe I'm reading this article wrong but says he's getting the same amount of money. He's just getting all the money in signing bonus now so it's guaranteed.

Crunching the numbers on Patriots quarterback Tom Brady?s contract extension - Sports - The Boston Globe

"In essence, the renegotiation means Brady will make $57 million over five seasons, and all of it is guaranteed.

Brady is still getting the money he originally signed for over the coming two years, but he made it easier for New England to add more pieces to the roster, players who might get the Patriots another Super Bowl ring instead of another Super Bowl disappointment."

2. He just restructured it. Of course he can restructure it but why? He's not going to get more guaranteed money. What kind of leverage does he have the older he gets?

1. Guaranteed money for NFL contracts is critical. And yes, he practically doubled his guaranteed money. I don't understand the confusion.

2. If he is still playing at a high level he will be able to command top dollar. The Pats wouldn't want to see him spend his days on a beach with Giselle so they would pay him what he's due. If he's not playing at a high level then they are still on the hook for all the guaranteed money and less cap room.

 

[JDM]

They will not be leveraged into anything. Retiring isn't playing elsewhere. Brady plays out his contract or retires. You're imagining him having some awesome leverage. The patriots are fine once he retires.

 

[Rathman44]

Yeah, I'm glad I'm not the only one lost on his point. He has a big chunk guaranteed, but what he is making per year is extremely team friendly. In my mind there's still no one else I would take to lead my team, but he is well below the highest paid QB and happy with that.

Nobody is arguing that the deal isn't team friendly if it were to be played out like that. I just think it's unreasonable to believe that his contract will be one of the very few franchise QB contracts to not be restructured or leveraged later on. If it doesn't then you should be worried because it means Brady got injured and he's just collecting his guaranteed money. The contract gives Brady more injury insurance money, while the team gets short term cap relief (which they didn't seem to use all that great). The contract will be readdressed in a couple years if he's still playing well - like many franchise QB contracts. The Pats are taking a gamble that he doesn't get injured or drop off in performance in his late 30s. Brady reduces his gamble against injury by increasing his guaranteed money. I see the positives on both sides, but by no means is it a slam dunk awesome deal for the Pats like you made it out to be.

Anyways, I don't think we are going to agree on this so I'll just leave it at that. Good luck to you guys this season. Hopefully we see you in the Super Bowl - I'd love to beat the Pats!

 

[Rathman44]

They will not be leveraged into anything. Retiring isn't playing elsewhere. Brady plays out his contract or retires. You're imagining him having some awesome leverage. The patriots are fine once he retires.

Has Mallett really looked that good? I haven't seen much of him at all, but I have to believe that Pats fans would be furious if the team didn't give a ProBowl-caliber-Brady a few million more to come back over seeing Mallet being thrown out there.

And dear God I hope you don't mention Tebow as an option! haha