OT: Could the Pats be on the decline?

[Rathman44]

Brady retires a patriot. He has an extremely team friendly contract and they are instant Super Bowl threats with him on the field. They are young at WR, and tight end turned from dominant to merely a strength (given Gronk is back for the playoffs; don't care about the regular season), but with Brady on the field they are a very tough out. The defense has the pieces they need to win now as well, and places that have the potential for upgrade can be done without giving up Brady.

Brady's contract being "team friendly" is a myth. Sure it created a little space for this year and next, but it also gave a 36-year old a lot more guaranteed cash while extending him til he's 40. I can guarantee that this contract will be reworked in 2 years to provide him with even more cash if he is playing up to the level that the Pats are hoping for. The threat of retirement will ensure that he gets his coin. That leaves you with either an expensive 38-40 year old who is still playing decent or you are on the hook for paying an over-the-hill immobile QB guaranteed cash til he's 40.

The deal was made to help the short term cap numbers while also providing Brady with some more guaranteed cash. It's all about these next 2 years for the Pats - and with all their receiver problems, Brady is going to have to play lights out for them to go far.

 

[JDM]

I wanted Welker gone. The reliance on him killed our versatility.

They upgraded significantly at safety, and the corner play will improve from a combination of that and an extra year of experience. Linebacker didn't need an upgrade, we could use another real good DL but have a group of average bodies instead, and with the exception of an elite burner at WR or a true shutdown corner, I didn't want any upgrades. I am very satisfied with this team.

 

[JDM]

Brady's contract being "team friendly" is a myth. Sure it created a little space for this year and next, but it also gave a 36-year old a lot more guaranteed cash while extending him til he's 40. I can guarantee that this contract will be reworked in 2 years to provide him with even more cash if he is playing up to the level that the Pats are hoping for. The threat of retirement will ensure that he gets his coin. That leaves you with either an expensive 38-40 year old who is still playing decent or you are on the hook for paying an over-the-hill immobile QB guaranteed cash til he's 40.

The deal was made to help the short term cap numbers while also providing Brady with some more guaranteed cash. It's all about these next 2 years for the Pats - and with all their receiver problems, Brady is going to have to play lights out for them to go far.

He's set to average a little over 11 mil a year for the next five years. 30mil is guaranteed, but he has 1 and 2 mil base salaries the next two years, followed by 7,8, and 9 following that. Considering he easily could have averaged 20 mil a year like Peyton, just over half that has to be seen as team friendly.

 

[NinerSickness]

I wanted Welker gone. The reliance on him killed our versatility.

That doesn't mean the alternative is any good. 75% of the receptions last year went to players no longer on the team (including Hernandez). If Gronk can't play, that number goes up to 89%. They added Amendola & a late 2nd round rookie WR. I wouldn't exactly bank on that being enough to replace 75-89% of the receptions.

 

[JDM]

Gronk will be back. We don't need him to make the playoffs, so he won't be rushed. Hernandez hurts, but we have a decent running game and managed to get by with only one decent receiver last year. I don't expect Amendola to make up for Welker, but he will take a chunk of it. The offense won't be the best in the league (which they were last year, in both yards and scoring, despite a lack of receivers), and I would like to see Lloyd back in a reduced role, but losing Welker and Hernandez is far from a cause for panic when the difference between them and the second place broncos in scoring was greater than the difference between the broncos and the ninth place Seahawks. I don't need the best offense in the nfl. I see a balanced team who is solid on both sides of the ball (they were ninth in scoring d and improved their most glaring weakness).

 

[Jikkle]

The primary issue with the Pats as I see it is they've been way to passive in drafting.

I'm a big proponent of trading back in the draft and having a coaching staff develop talent but I do believe you can trade back too many times and too often which I think the Pats have done.

Eventually you have to look at your roster and say "The roster is full of solid role players but we need some elite all pro talent." and take a swing for the fences and make a big trade up.

I mean imagine if the Pats did that in 2011 when the draft was loaded with defensive talent and traded up to grab JJ Watt. Can you imagine that front with Watt and Wilfork on the same line?

It's not about mortgaging the future for the now but when your window is open you have to mix some now in with the future. Stockpiling those draft picks isn't going to do you any good when Brady is retired and that window has closed.

 

[JDM]

Maybe I'm just a homer, but I do find it interesting that the first time in years I have been happy with how the team looks going into the year is the year I hear the most about my team being screwed. I am pumped about the next several years. We have a lot of the young pieces on defense, good young options in the backfield, a rookie receiver who looks promising, a replacement for Welker who, while unestablished, has better hands IMO and is younger, and young but respectable depth on both sides of the ball. I certainly respect your opinions, but I have been upset with my team the last few years and am happy for once.

 

[threelittleturds]

Well, every year that Brady gets older the Patriots decline. Its not like the 49ers chances got better from 96-97-98-99 as Young got older. It somewhat seemed like they got better because of the FAs they brought in and the rise of Owens, but they always lost in the playoffs cause Young just wasn't the young Young.

Maybe I'm wrong because back then you could beat up a QB, in today's game it is practically illegal to even touch a star QB... so maybe age won't slow down the MVP QBs anymore.

 

[JDM]

Young used his legs a lot more as well. Brady stays entirely in the pocket.

 

[threelittleturds]

Young used his legs a lot more as well. Brady stays entirely in the pocket.

True, but he rarely took a bad hit while scrambling in his later years. His hardest hits came in the pocket, even the one that retired him.

 

[JDM]

The point was his mobility helped make him plays. That goes the fastest with age. Arm strength may go slightly, but I would bet advances in training have minimized that even since Young's time. When your biggest strength is your decision making, the overall decline is less severe. I see no reason he shouldn't continue to play at the elite level. He hasn't shown signs of decline yet. When he does, we'll deal with it.

 

[threelittleturds]

The point was his mobility helped make him plays. That goes the fastest with age. Arm strength may go slightly, but I would bet advances in training have minimized that even since Young's time. When your biggest strength is your decision making, the overall decline is less severe. I see no reason he shouldn't continue to play at the elite level. He hasn't shown signs of decline yet. When he does, we'll deal with it.

That is a pretty strange point when you're talking about a guy who won the passing title 6 times. Retired as the best with 96.8.... and Brady sits at 96.6. Do you argue that Young did all that while running around like a madman evading rushers and tossing up passes on the run? You'd be wrong.

If you think Brady is going to get better and better with age, well, more power to you... let me console you in advance for your disappointment... and lets agree to disagree.

 

[JDM]

No, but he used it to his advantage at the right times.

I'm not saying Brady will be the best in the NFL forever, just that we have a backup plan ready and there's no need to speculate too much further than that. When he starts to decline, we can address it. Until then, he gives them the best chance to win.

 

[NinerSickness]

Gronk will be back. We don't need him to make the playoffs, so he won't be rushed. Hernandez hurts, but we have a decent running game and managed to get by with only one decent receiver last year.

The concern I would have if I were running the pats is that a lot of the running game was opened up by a very effective passing game. One depends on the other & vice versa. The NE OL is still a great unit, so they should be able to run the ball. But I think it might be easier for defenses to key a little bit more on the run this year (unless Dobson is a stud right out of the box).

For the record, I thought Dobson was almost as good a prospect as Patterson, Hunter & Hopkins. So he might be a great WR from day 1 with Brady throwing him the ball. If he is and Gronk is healthy, the Pats have a very good shot at returning to the SB. But, like I said, I'd put my money on re-building over putting together a SB run. The 29th rated pass defense last year han't gotten much better IMO (especially with Wilson at safety; he's not even average in coverage at this point). The run D looks good with Wilfork up front, but I don't see enough fire power on offense to make up for the lack of overall defense.

 

[JDM]

I do love the Dobson pick. The last receiver Brady had with near his measurables was randy moss (not making a comparison; that's unearned). He has made it work with a whole bunch of guys under six feet without great speed or hands. Dobson has good hands from everything I've seen (no drops his senior year and scouts compared him to Larry Fitzgerald per rotoworld, and the catch in my avatar was one of the best I have seen), has solid but not breakaway speed, has a big frame to get the ball to, and if he can learn the offense, I think he makes an impact. But that's a fairly optimistic view, and I know that. Wilson is not an amazing safety, but I think he's still an upgrade over what we had last year. His experience makes the defense better than it is without him.

 

[NinerSickness]

Wilson is not an amazing safety, but I think he's still an upgrade over what we had last year.

In pass protection?

 

[JDM]

I think so. Our safety play was awful, and made corner play look worse as a result. But I think even if it's a push in coverage, he is an upgrade stepping up and adds a little more versatility. When you have a tiny strong safety who poses no threat at all against the run, your play calling becomes far more predictable.

 

[JDM]

I'm going to just concede this, though. I don't have much measurable to prove anything to you. It's a lot of small things added together and it's partly a gut feeling. But I like where I see this team as headed.

 

[threelittleturds]

Anyway, I do see some similarities between the 97-98 49ers and last years Pats. As those great QBs get older it becomes more important than ever for the other guys to stay healthy. For the 49ers, losing Hearst in 97 and 98 pretty much killed their chances because Young needed the help as he got older... losing Gronk last year killed the Pats because at his age he needs the help.

I know I didn't say it initially, but that is what I had in mind when I said they decline with Brady's age.

 

[Rathman44]

The point was his mobility helped make him plays. That goes the fastest with age. Arm strength may go slightly, but I would bet advances in training have minimized that even since Young's time. When your biggest strength is your decision making, the overall decline is less severe. I see no reason he shouldn't continue to play at the elite level. He hasn't shown signs of decline yet. When he does, we'll deal with it.

I'd rather go from really fast to somewhat fast (Young) rather than from really slow to pretty much a stand still (Brady). Brady has always used his mobility and feel in the pocket to evade rushers. Because he's always been pretty slow he has a much smaller margin for error and his decreased mobility (which is pretty apparent to me) will hurt him a lot more than it did for Young. Young lost his ability for the long and dramatic runs, but he was still extremely effective and elusive in the pocket.