Orioles 2024 Season

[chillerdab]

Is it hyde? Is it the hitting coaches? The conditioning team?

All of the above?

The hitters strike out way too much, minor injuries linger, the bullpen’s been a mess all year, and all phases of the Orioles game got worse as the year progressed.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Is it hyde? Is it the hitting coaches? The conditioning team?

All of the above?

The hitters strike out way too much, minor injuries linger, the bullpen’s been a mess all year, and all phases of the Orioles game got worse as the year progressed.

As much as I hate to go into "I told you so" mode... Given the benefit of hindsight, maybe the Orioles should have done the unthinkable by selling at the trade deadline based on the reasoning that "this isn't our year" due to the sheer number of injuries. That way, the second half of the season could have been used to give certain prospects more playing time as a form of "load management" (instead of being stuck in the situation where certain key players couldn't afford to take a day off and thus started regressing due to fatigue / injuries). Likewise, the pitching conundrum could have been addressed by using openers / relay teams on a regular basis (and if all else fails, "scheduled punt games").

If anything, this strategy actually worked for the Tigers-- and the Orioles could have sacrificed up to 4 wins as a side effect of the "in-season mini-rebuild" and still end up with the #1 wild card. Oh well, on to Game 2...

 

[chillerdab]

Would your strategy have made a lat strain for grayson take six weeks to not fully heal? Or Mounty’s strained wrist?

What about the hitting approach - last year the hitters were patient and working counts. This year they swing way too freely, struck out too much and had zero patience.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Would your strategy have made a lat strain for grayson take six weeks to not fully heal? Or Mounty’s strained wrist?

What about the hitting approach - last year the hitters were patient and working counts. This year they swing way too freely, struck out too much and had zero patience.

I'd agree with all of your points here: Load management alone cannot prevent some injuries (certainly not those caused by freak accidents such as collisions or hits by pitches), and the coaching staff is likely partly to blame for the less-patient hitting approach. I am just trying to make the case that most of the regression in the second half of this season can be ultimately attributed to injuries in some manner via the following vicious cycle:

• When multiple key players are unavailable, other players would need to pick up the slack and thus ended up being overused. This results in additional fatigue, which leads to more injuries or at least under-performance at the individual level.
  
  
• Either way, this results in under-performance at the team level, which causes hitters to feel pressured to play "hero ball" by swinging for the fences. Unfortunately, the all-or-nothing "three true outcomes" approach reinforces itself: If you can't score without hitting home runs, you almost have to go for home runs every time (regardless of what the coaches are saying).
  
  
• Likewise, the bullpen being a mess probably has something to do with the fact that an entire rotation of starting pitchers was on the IL at one point.

Hence the argument for being willing to "lose a battle to win the war" by spreading the workload among a larger number of players: It's essentially a "player health above all else" strategy. After all, at some point fatigue and/or lingering injuries could cause a better player to perform worse than their backups. For example, consider the following cases of second-half drop-off:

• Adley Rutschman ended up hitting worse than James McCann
• Gunnar Henderson's errors in late July (remember the stretch of 4 consecutive games?)
• For the pitchers that stayed healthy all season, consider Albert Suárez (and even Corbin Burnes to a lesser extent)

 

[Dead2009]

The collapse of this team definitely needs to be studied. Burnes isn't coming back and to a lesser extent, Santander probably isn't coming back either.

They can't hit. Period. That's not a Brandon Hyde issue so I seriously don't know why people are constantly calling for his head. He's not the one out there swinging at outright trash every single game, and if they were intentionally doing it so Hyde COULD get fired, Burnes wouldn't have thrown 8 innings of 1 run ball yesterday for fun.

We're seriously starting to turn into the baseball version of the Ravens. Huge expectations, incredible regular season, only to choke when it matters.

 

[Dead2009]

As much as I hate to go into "I told you so" mode... Given the benefit of hindsight, maybe the Orioles should have done the unthinkable by selling at the trade deadline based on the reasoning that "this isn't our year" due to the sheer number of injuries. That way, the second half of the season could have been used to give certain prospects more playing time as a form of "load management" (instead of being stuck in the situation where certain key players couldn't afford to take a day off and thus started regressing due to fatigue / injuries). Likewise, the pitching conundrum could have been addressed by using openers / relay teams on a regular basis (and if all else fails, "scheduled punt games").

If anything, this strategy actually worked for the Tigers-- and the Orioles could have sacrificed up to 4 wins as a side effect of the "in-season mini-rebuild" and still end up with the #1 wild card. Oh well, on to Game 2...

Also no I disagree with this because the team was still winning. The Tigers eventually started going to their bullpen to start games and that strategy eventually is gonna fail on them.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

I disagree with [selling at the deadline] because the team was still winning. The Tigers eventually started going to their bullpen to start games and that strategy eventually is gonna fail on them.

Hence the caveat that this is an unpopular, "unthinkable" opinion that can only really be justified with the benefit of hindsight:

• While the regression technically started in July (the Orioles went 5-7 prior to the All-Star Break and then 7-6 for the remainder of the month), that's not enough data to be interpreted as a collapse. The only justification for "punting the season to prepare for 2025" would thus be a belief that the 2024 Orioles would be reduced to a 0.500 team for the remainder of the season due to losing Bradish et. al. for the season. That unfortunately turned out to be the case (the Orioles would ultimately go 26-27 after July), but giving up on the season would definitely be premature.

That being said, selling at the deadline doesn't necessarily imply going to the extreme of "acting like the 2018-21 Orioles"; there's nothing that stops a team from both buying and selling, or trying to compete with the remaining players (essentially an "addition by subtraction" strategy). For example, trading Mountcastle would have been acceptable in my opinion (2nd-half OPS: 0.666).


As for the "no traditional starters" strategy that has been successfully employed by the Tigers so far: That's why I emphasize the importance of "scheduled punt games" to rest the pitching staff after exhausting the bullpen to win close games. The idea is that something like "5-4 / 0-10 / 4-3" is still a series win despite being significantly outscored on the aggregate; in this hypothetical example, the 2nd game is the "punt game" where the only job of the players in that game is to eat 9 innings in order to give everyone else a day off. (Again, "it's like gerrymandering.")

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Overreaction (or "revisionist interpretation"?) of the season:

"Is this really a 0.500 team from a talent level standpoint (per the preseason projections) that simply overachieved in 2023 and April through June 2024?"

(And if so, what should the new ownership group focus on in the offseason? It's ironic that it would be hitting that fails in the postseason this year as opposed to pitching...)

 

[skinz2winz]

Then what changes need to be made to become a serious contender next year? Top to bottom?

 

[chillerdab]

I dont see how you retain the hitting coaches, the pitching coaches, or the conditioning team.

If you’re getting rid of all of that, you probably should fire hyde too.

 

[Dead2009]

The starting pitching needs to be tended to. Trading for Burnes was a great addition, and Eflin helped a little bit, but that's literally all we did. IF they're able to re-sign Burnes, this is what the rotation should look like:

1. Burnes
2. Grayson
3. Bradish
4. ?????
5. Eflin

I honestly feel that yes, the injuries hurt us, but if we had Eflin from the start and Bradish/Means were healthy...that's a damn good rotation right there.

The bullpen also needs to be revamped. Cole Irvin said he wants to come back, but as a starter, and well....we honestly need dudes who can eat innings in middle relief. He, Suarez (if hes still here) and Means (if he's still able to fucking pitch) being the long relievers could honestly be some of the answers we're looking for.

 

[chillerdab]

I dont think bradish is gonna be able to pitch next year. Means neither.

I dont think its only about injuries.

You gotta get some quality right handed bats too.

 

[Dead2009]

Depending on how the rehab goes, Bradish COULD come back later on in the season like Means did last year.

As far as the offense goes, this is about as complete of a team as you're gonna get. It also depends who's actually available come free agency and whether or not the Orioles actually want them.

It was definitely about injuries when it came to the rotation though, I dont think any other team lost 4 of their starting pitchers in one season like that before.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

The starting pitching needs to be tended to. Trading for Burnes was a great addition, and Eflin helped a little bit, but that's literally all we did. IF they're able to re-sign Burnes, this is what the rotation should look like:

1. Burnes / 2. Grayson / 3. Bradish / 4. ????? / 5. Eflin

Let's assume the worst-case (but very probable) scenario:

• The new ownership group could be outbid by a big-market team (which means no Burnes), and there's no guarantee that Bradish / Wells would be healthy and effective again even later into the 2025 season (as the Orioles learned the hard way in 2024).
  
  
• That means the Opening Day rotation would be Eflin and Rodriguez in either order, followed by Kremer and then two question marks. Based on the Fangraphs prospect list and those who have started for the Orioles in 2024, the internal options for the #4/5 spots are practically limited to some combination of Suárez, Povich, McDermott, Rogers (they can fix him, right...?), plus Brandon Young (45 FV on Fangraphs, made the AAA level in 2024).

Obviously, the Orioles could theoretically adopt the strategy of the 2024 Tigers and attempt a modified 6-man rotation in a pinch (two traditional starters, plus two relay teams of two). Suárez should probably be able to fulfill this role based on his 2024 results, and the fact that Kremer / Suárez / McDermott are righties while Rogers and Povich are lefties means that you already have two L/R relay teams on paper (while the best righty of the group could be used as a traditional starter as well).

But realistically speaking, I think everyone would agree that this team needs at least 1-2 free agent signings for starters. If any of the pitching prospects pan out, that would be a good problem to have (since the extra starters would simply become luxury bullpen options).

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Random venting here…
This offense (other than Mullins) disgusted me these past two games. I think I knew the season was over when we didn’t convert in the fifth with the bases loaded and no outs. These guys looked like they all want to be the hero and hit the homer when instead they need to go back and learn the basics. The Mets in game one is a perfect example of that. I felt bad for the pitching staff. When you let up 3 runs in 18 innings and lose both games, that’s got to hurt.
I’m starting to wonder if everyone overvalues our guys. Most so far that have come up this past season look like 4A guys. And still don’t see the big deal about Cowser, who’ll have one good game and then 10 horrible games.
Something’s got to be done with the coaching staff. How can everyone else see the issues on offense and not have them fixed for months? They look at good pitches and swing at awful ones. I don’t know why pitchers even throw a lot in the zone knowing that they all have a tendency to chase. It’s like they’re allergic to walks. I wish someone would tell them that walks, singles and doubles are just fine.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Let's look at the 2025 depth chart for position players:

• C: Rutschman, but the backup is a question mark. (The Orioles were ranked 19th in catcher OPS this year, with Rutschman batting worse than McCann as a catcher presumably due to fatigue / lingering minor injuries. Basallo seems like an obvious candidate as the backup since he has already made the AAA level in 2024, but bringing him up as a catcher in 2025 might be too early; meanwhile, Blake Hunt is considered AAA depth.)
  
  
• 1B: Mountcastle or O'Hearn, then probably some combination of Mayo / Rivera / Kjerstad. (There is potential for upgrades here since the Orioles were 19th in 1B OPS this year.)
  
  
• 2B: Westburg for now until Holliday becomes ready to start regularly; Mateo and Urías as backup options. (This was a weakness in 2024: The Orioles were 26th in 2B OPS this year.)
  
  
• 3B: If Westburg is needed for 2B, that leaves Urías as the starter, and Rivera / Mayo as the backups for now. (The Orioles were ranked 6th in 3B OPS this year thanks to the contribution of Westburg and Urías.)
  
  
• SS: Henderson, then Holliday / Mateo as backup options. (The Orioles were ranked 2nd in SS OPS this year... after the Royals [read: Bobby Witt Jr.], of course.)
  
  
• LF: Cowser, then Kjerstad. (Offensive output at LF was ranked 16th this year.)
  
  
• CF: Mullins or Cowser. (Surprisingly, the Orioles were 7th in CF OPS this year on the aggregate despite the inconsistent hitting by of both of them. Since Enrique Bradfield Jr. won't be ready for a while, the short-term issue essentially boils down to "Cowser cannot play LF and CF simultaneously.")
  
  
• RF: This would be a question mark if Santander isn't re-signed, as the presumptive 2025 starter would otherwise be Kjerstad, with O'Hearn as the backup on paper since Austin Slater will also be leaving in free agency. (The Orioles were 3rd in RF OPS this year mostly thanks to Santander. The tricky part is that there are no obvious internal backup options yet: Beavers and Fabian are listed as "ETA 2027" despite having reached the AAA level in 2024.)
  
  
• DH: Assuming no Santander, we'd probably be looking at some combination of O'Hearn / Rutschman / Kjerstad. (The Orioles were 11th in DH OPS this year, but that's with Rutschman being about 27% of those at-bats and Santander being 16% of them.)

Based on the above, the free agency looks like this list:

1. Re-sign Santander or bring in another RF (as one would otherwise need to start an outfield of Cowser - Mullins - Kjerstad on a regular basis, while the 4th outfielder would be a Triple-A call-up)
   
   
2. Backup catcher if James McCann isn't re-signed (to avoid having to start Blake Hunt ~40% of the time, or rush Samuel Basallo)
   
   
3. Maybe a stop-gap solution for the infield until Holliday and Mayo are ready to become daily starters

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Based on the above, the free agency looks like this list [...]

Correction: That should obviously read "free agency needs."

Anyway, the Spotrac page for the 2025 payroll pretty much confirms what we already know: Most of the 2024 team will be intact (assuming that the 2025 club options that make sense are picked up), and the new ownership group can easily afford to spend more if it chooses to. So maybe a better follow-up question is "who's available to target for the SP / RP / RF / backup C needs specifically?"

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Let's look at the 2025 depth chart for position players:

• C: Rutschman, but the backup is a question mark. (The Orioles were ranked 19th in catcher OPS this year, with Rutschman batting worse than McCann as a catcher presumably due to fatigue / lingering minor injuries. Basallo seems like an obvious candidate as the backup since he has already made the AAA level in 2024, but bringing him up as a catcher in 2025 might be too early; meanwhile, Blake Hunt is considered AAA depth.)
  
  
• 1B: Mountcastle or O'Hearn, then probably some combination of Mayo / Rivera / Kjerstad. (There is potential for upgrades here since the Orioles were 19th in 1B OPS this year.)
  
  
• 2B: Westburg for now until Holliday becomes ready to start regularly; Mateo and Urías as backup options. (This was a weakness in 2024: The Orioles were 26th in 2B OPS this year.)
  
  
• 3B: If Westburg is needed for 2B, that leaves Urías as the starter, and Rivera / Mayo as the backups for now. (The Orioles were ranked 6th in 3B OPS this year thanks to the contribution of Westburg and Urías.)
  
  
• SS: Henderson, then Holliday / Mateo as backup options. (The Orioles were ranked 2nd in SS OPS this year... after the Royals [read: Bobby Witt Jr.], of course.)
  
  
• LF: Cowser, then Kjerstad. (Offensive output at LF was ranked 16th this year.)
  
  
• CF: Mullins or Cowser. (Surprisingly, the Orioles were 7th in CF OPS this year on the aggregate despite the inconsistent hitting by of both of them. Since Enrique Bradfield Jr. won't be ready for a while, the short-term issue essentially boils down to "Cowser cannot play LF and CF simultaneously.")
  
  
• RF: This would be a question mark if Santander isn't re-signed, as the presumptive 2025 starter would otherwise be Kjerstad, with O'Hearn as the backup on paper since Austin Slater will also be leaving in free agency. (The Orioles were 3rd in RF OPS this year mostly thanks to Santander. The tricky part is that there are no obvious internal backup options yet: Beavers and Fabian are listed as "ETA 2027" despite having reached the AAA level in 2024.)
  
  
• DH: Assuming no Santander, we'd probably be looking at some combination of O'Hearn / Rutschman / Kjerstad. (The Orioles were 11th in DH OPS this year, but that's with Rutschman being about 27% of those at-bats and Santander being 16% of them.)

Based on the above, the free agency looks like this list:

1. Re-sign Santander or bring in another RF (as one would otherwise need to start an outfield of Cowser - Mullins - Kjerstad on a regular basis, while the 4th outfielder would be a Triple-A call-up)
   
   
2. Backup catcher if James McCann isn't re-signed (to avoid having to start Blake Hunt ~40% of the time, or rush Samuel Basallo)
   
   
3. Maybe a stop-gap solution for the infield until Holliday and Mayo are ready to become daily starters

I’d probably try signing McCann for one year so Basallo can get more experience before coming up. I’d assume that Creed Willems would this be moved up to Norfolk in his place. Whenever that’d happen, we can maybe try Adley at first on occasion.
As for the infielders, I’m thinking (as of right now) that Mateo and one of either Mountcastle or O’Hearn gets traded. I think they’re going to risk Jackson at 2nd and Westburg at 3rd and have Mayo and someone else at 1st with Urias at the utility guy. The outfield I have no idea. Cowser will likely be out there and I’m assuming Mullins. I don’t think we resign Santander and either sign someone or chance it with Kjerstadt. I’d like to sign a Markakis type outfielder that’s a solid fielder and doesn’t worry about the homer and just gets on base.
For me, the top priority for me would be to do our damndest to resign Burnes or another top level starter. I want to see this front office to make a big acquisition instead of making excuses like the Angelos regime. Put that T Rowe Price money to use instead of just pocketing it.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

I dont see how you retain the hitting coaches, the pitching coaches, or the conditioning team.

If you’re getting rid of all of that, you probably should fire hyde too.

should have canned them yesterday.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Random thought of the day: "How much should we really blame the hitting coaches for the less-patient hitting approach in 2024?"

• 2023 Orioles: 0.255 / 0.321 / 0.421; 0.742 OPS (14th in the MLB); 0.320 wOBA (14th); 8.4% BB, 22.4% K, B/KK ratio = 0.37; 0.305 BABIP (9th in the MLB)
  
  
• 2024 Orioles: 0.250 / 0.315 / 0.435; 0.751 OPS (4th in the MLB); 0.324 wOBA (4th); 7.9% BB, 22.0% K, B/KK ratio = 0.36; 0.288 BABIP (20th in the MLB)

So the numbers seem to tell a different story:

• The 2024 approach is slightly more productive (from the standpoint of higher OPS and wOBA), but it did involve trading AVG and OBP for SLG to some extent
  
  
• Surprisingly, the numbers did not support the hypothesis that the more aggressive hitting approach resulted in turning walks into strikeouts in the attempt to hit for power. Instead, both walks and strikeout decreased, and it may actually be bad luck that's causing "un-clutch" hitting in 2024 (notice the drop in BABIP).
  
  
• For that matter, one area where the 2024 team did worse is the "base running runs above average" (BsR) category: The 2023 team was ranked 3rd (16.1), while the 2024 team was ranked 16th (-0.3). If we look at the details, this was partly due to Mateo's season-ending injury, plus most of the team being worse in this category in general. This might actually be a combination of being a slower team in general (due to having fewer faster players available and/or lingering minor injuries), plus possibly coaching.