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Deflate-gate triggers stat spat as analysts attempt to solve why Patriots don't fumble
PHOENIX – Maybe the smoking gun isn’t in a bathroom at Gillette Stadium. Maybe it’s in the laptop of a civil engineer in Washington, D.C.
One of the strangest twists in the already strange saga of deflate-gate is the sudden star turn of a man who runs a gambling website when he’s not doing his day job. Warren Sharp is a 36-year-old dad who loves numbers and algorithms, and decided to apply some statistics to the Patriots when he heard about the football deflation investigation. What he found sent ripples through the sports world and got a few other statisticians pretty upset.
It also may have implications beyond Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Sharp’s idea was to look at fumbles. That led him to a more refined topic: how well the Patriots held onto the ball both before and after the 2006 season, which happened to be the year Brady and Peyton Manning pushed for a rule change which allowed each team to provide their own footballs for games.
“Something significant changed from 2006 to 2007 that allowed them to retain the football,” Sharp said by phone Tuesday, “and that continues today.”
According to Sharp’s calculations, the Patriots’ fumble rate was 42 touches per fumble from 2000 through 2006. That was about the league average. Since 2007, however, that rate has dropped dramatically, to 74 touches per fumble. Over that time, the Pats are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, even including dome teams.
“Based upon the data we’ve collected and the probabilities, it definitely is extremely unlikely that their ability to hold onto the football would change so much and be as far away from the rest of the NFL,” Sharp said. “It’s extremely unlikely.”
Deflate-gate triggers stat spat as analysts attempt to solve why Patriots don't fumble - Yahoo Sports
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I do remember Jerome Bettis making a comment, when asked on how a deflated football could help him. He commented that it would be harder to strip the ball from him if it was deflated. I mean, logic would say to anyone that a someone could grip the football better.
Also, on a side note. Benjarvus Green Ellis in 4 seasons with the Pats (during this time period) he fumbled the ball exactly ZERO TIMES. In two seasons with the Bengals, he fumbled the ball 5 times.
PHOENIX – Maybe the smoking gun isn’t in a bathroom at Gillette Stadium. Maybe it’s in the laptop of a civil engineer in Washington, D.C.
One of the strangest twists in the already strange saga of deflate-gate is the sudden star turn of a man who runs a gambling website when he’s not doing his day job. Warren Sharp is a 36-year-old dad who loves numbers and algorithms, and decided to apply some statistics to the Patriots when he heard about the football deflation investigation. What he found sent ripples through the sports world and got a few other statisticians pretty upset.
It also may have implications beyond Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Sharp’s idea was to look at fumbles. That led him to a more refined topic: how well the Patriots held onto the ball both before and after the 2006 season, which happened to be the year Brady and Peyton Manning pushed for a rule change which allowed each team to provide their own footballs for games.
“Something significant changed from 2006 to 2007 that allowed them to retain the football,” Sharp said by phone Tuesday, “and that continues today.”
According to Sharp’s calculations, the Patriots’ fumble rate was 42 touches per fumble from 2000 through 2006. That was about the league average. Since 2007, however, that rate has dropped dramatically, to 74 touches per fumble. Over that time, the Pats are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, even including dome teams.
“Based upon the data we’ve collected and the probabilities, it definitely is extremely unlikely that their ability to hold onto the football would change so much and be as far away from the rest of the NFL,” Sharp said. “It’s extremely unlikely.”
Deflate-gate triggers stat spat as analysts attempt to solve why Patriots don't fumble - Yahoo Sports
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I do remember Jerome Bettis making a comment, when asked on how a deflated football could help him. He commented that it would be harder to strip the ball from him if it was deflated. I mean, logic would say to anyone that a someone could grip the football better.
Also, on a side note. Benjarvus Green Ellis in 4 seasons with the Pats (during this time period) he fumbled the ball exactly ZERO TIMES. In two seasons with the Bengals, he fumbled the ball 5 times.
Never met a Brady goober yet who will.
