Official 2014 W-L Prediction Thread

[dare2be]

I think I'm going to be right on track. I hate being right. Please prove me wrong, Buccos.

 

[thecrow124]

How is 87-75 not taken?

 

[dare2be]

How is 87-75 not taken?

I think I switched from it to 81-81 just before the season started.

 

[thecrow124]

I think I switched from it to 81-81 just before the season started.

Ouch

 

[dare2be]

Ouch

Double-ouch if I'm right.

 

[thedddd]

Double-ouch if I'm right.

You might be now with the news on McCutchen.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Bucs stand at 76-69 right now, a .524 winning percentage, and project to a final record of 85-77, putting theddd on pace to win. steelparrot, Etrius24, itsneon, Darkstone42, ramburgh, and smokeyburgess all predicted too many wins and have been eliminated. Hopefully we can start eliminating people who predicted too few wins soon, too.

All predictions are listed below. Those in red have been eliminated. Bold is the current pace.

steelparrot 160-2
Etrius24 98-64
itsneon 97-65
Darkstone42 96-66
ramburgh 95-67
smokeyburgess 94-68
Burgh Sports Rule 93-69
sychmd 92-70
thehobocop 91-71
thecrow124 90-72
element1286 89-73
evolver115 88-74
navamind 86-76
theddd 85-77
hokiehi21 84-78
TheBurgh88 83-79
Burns80y 82-80
dare2be 81-81
stillmatic32 80-82
Illinest 79-83
damien232307 78-84

 

[Darkstone42]

The Bucs have won their 81st game, preventing a regression back into losing seasons. At 81-70, they are on pace for a final record of 87-75 and probably a playoff spot.

This puts no one on pace to win, with that total falling exactly between evolver 115 and navamind. However, we can now eliminate four more competitors: damien232307, Illinest, stillmatic, and Burgh Sports Rule.

steelparrot 160-2
Etrius24 98-64
itsneon 97-65
Darkstone42 96-66
ramburgh 95-67
smokeyburgess 94-68
Burgh Sports Rule 93-69
sychmd 92-70
thehobocop 91-71
thecrow124 90-72
element1286 89-73
evolver115 88-74
navamind 86-76
theddd 85-77
hokiehi21 84-78
TheBurgh88 83-79
Burns80y 82-80
dare2be 81-81
stillmatic32 80-82
Illinest 79-83
damien232307 78-84

 

[dare2be]

That's funny...87-75 is what I switched from.

I do expect a slight regression to the pace, with the last 2 series on the road and Milwaukee always giving us fits.

 

[sychmd]

woohoo, predicting the unbelievable running of the table and 92 wins.

then getting a home series in the first round (we get to pass stl and LAD and win division).
then beating SF in the NLCS as again having home field adv.

then getting to take on the Angels in the WS, with polanco jacking a HR of grilli in 9th inning of game 6 (so it can be a walk off!!!!!)

 

[Darkstone42]

woohoo, predicting the unbelievable running of the table and 92 wins.

then getting a home series in the first round (we get to pass stl and LAD and win division).
then beating SF in the NLCS as again having home field adv.

then getting to take on the Angels in the WS, with polanco jacking a HR of grilli in 9th inning of game 6 (so it can be a walk off!!!!!)

That prediction isn't just bold, it's also remarkably specific.

 

[Illinest]

That prediction isn't just bold, it's also remarkably specific.

Coming from the guy who insisted that the pirates won't be ready until 2016.

I'm still not comfortable with our chances because a guy like Kershaw (and also some lesser pitchers) are capable of quieting our entire lineup on any given day. The Pirates on the other hand are still short on good starters. I am starting to trust the organization a little more when it comes to reclamations, but I still don't think we've got enough talent. I'm comfortable with Liriano and I haven't entirely given up on Cole for this season, but Volquez and Locke and Morton and the rest are the kind of guys that I'd prefer not to have to use in a playoff series.

 

[sychmd]

i started my bold sweep through the WS prediction initially to get us to 92 wins so i would win that pool. then i continued the dream in a sequential the-gods-are-on-our-side mentality and polanco won it all.

the left brain me still thinks 2016 is our realistic year to compete for the WS title, altho 2014 we are in the playoffs and go out in round 1. 2015 we can might have enough to make the NLCS.

really need cole, taillon, kingham, and glasnow to be able to be strong next year and all be upper tier P that can win you a series against the arms and low scoring games you see when the rotation is 3-4 studs.

our offense has improved and hopefully we aren't seeing career years out of walker and harrison.
marte is finally getting it as long as not leadoff. mercer will be solid and keep getting incrementally better with comfort. cutch will be better when doesn't have to do it all, polanco by mid 2015 should be a beast.
hanson will be the super sub and replace harrison as harrison will be the FT 3B and snider, stewart will be great bench options.

the 2 wildcards are signing martin - i am against my grain in overspending as we are very close to making a real run and no real alternatives in house or FA and trading for one will have a bigger prospect cost we don't want to take - we need them all. the other wildcard is the 1B menagerie. Gaby, Ike, Lambo, Alvarez, and then Bell, TSanchez. We have to be able to find a 1B FT or platoon and send the others off for prospects or a package for some catching.

 

[Darkstone42]

Josh Bell will be moved to first base at the start of next season. He's working there in the instructional league right now to learn it. It seems that's the direction the team wants to go at first base.

However, I would still sign a guy to a one-year deal to fill that hole. Someone good, too. If we bring back Martin and either Liriano or another good #2 type starter, with Taillon hopefully being ready by mid next season, Morton being who he is, Kingham being ready to go, and Cole learning from this season and hopefully being healthy, we should be contenders next year if we have a good bat at 1B. Without that bat, we would waste a possible year of contention.

Of course, first we have to bring back Martin and Liriano or a similar free agent.

 

[thecrow124]

I know I am going to get destroyed for this, but for next year they need to just clear out the menagerie and let Lambo play first. Let go of Gaby, Ike, and Pedro as they will all be overpriced for the production that you would be getting. Worst case scenario is that he plays worse than the Gaby/Ike platoon, but I thought last season he would have been just fine this year and I think he will be just fine next year. If he completely bombs, give Snyder a shot there.

However, priority 1 and 2 should be signing Martin and Liriano. Once that is taken care of, see what you have left to fill any holes or find players you can sign as backup plans in case Harrison or whatever they decide with first base fails. But that should not be a priority.

 

[sychmd]

I know I am going to get destroyed for this, but for next year they need to just clear out the menagerie and let Lambo play first. Let go of Gaby, Ike, and Pedro as they will all be overpriced for the production that you would be getting. Worst case scenario is that he plays worse than the Gaby/Ike platoon, but I thought last season he would have been just fine this year and I think he will be just fine next year. If he completely bombs, give Snyder a shot there.

However, priority 1 and 2 should be signing Martin and Liriano. Once that is taken care of, see what you have left to fill any holes or find players you can sign as backup plans in case Harrison or whatever they decide with first base fails. But that should not be a priority.

i agree with all your points. sign martin and liriano.
altho it is nice to have bench strength, flexibility, and injury insurance, we have too many. so dump gaby and davis. get whatever you can as far as prospects.

let lambo and pedro fight it out and the other backup. pedro can be the corner IF backup for 1B and 3B depth as we have none, one more year to see if transitioning to 1B can be done. we have bell and TSanchez as re-enforcements on the or RH options.

if you can trade pedro to AL as DH or 1B for a good haul, take it.

Just pray our young guys keep making progress (marte, harrison, polanco, snider, walker, mercer, hanson, lambo, melancon, cole, locke, worley, hughes, holdzem, watson, wilson, pimentel, taillon, kingham, cumpton, tsanchez, pedro).
OK, i didn't intend to name everyone except martin and cutch, but we are so young it is awesome and exciting. a great group has been put together and they seem to have good chemistry and fun as well.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Bucs remain hot down the stretch, and with three games remaining, sit at a record of 87-72. I would estimate the most likely outcome of the final series is a 2-1 series victory, given what we know now, and so the Bucs are on pace for a final record of 89-73, which was element1286's prediction, indicated in bold. Since the last update, sychmd and thehobocop have been eliminated for predicting too many wins, and dare2be, Burns80y, TheBurgh88, hokiehi21, theddd, and navamind have been eliminated for predicting too few.

If the Pirates are swept, no one wins (really). If they take one, evolver115 wins. If they take two, element1286 wins. If they sweep, thecrow124 will be the victor. Down to three contestants, and down to the wire!

steelparrot 160-2
Etrius24 98-64
itsneon 97-65
Darkstone42 96-66
ramburgh 95-67
smokeyburgess 94-68
Burgh Sports Rule 93-69
sychmd 92-70
thehobocop 91-71
thecrow124 90-72
element1286 89-73
evolver115 88-74
navamind 86-76
theddd 85-77
hokiehi21 84-78
TheBurgh88 83-79
Burns80y 82-80
dare2be 81-81
stillmatic32 80-82
Illinest 79-83
damien232307 78-84

I'm pulling for crow. Go Bucs!

 

[Darkstone42]

Congratulations to evolver115 for winning this year's prediction contest!

 

[evolver115]

Thanks for keeping score all season DS



Now let's go win this damn thing