None Shall Pass...

[TREFF]

The Titans had the third best team offense and it was mostly running the ball. Tannehill was a middle-of-the-pack QB with 481 passing attempts. Maybe Julio is at the twilight of his career. But until he gets hurt, he will be a concern for defenses opposite Brown.


I will concede that he is an injury risk. However, among all WR last year, he averaged 85.7 yards per game. Only 6 WR averaged better. If that's hanging on, I'll take that.

Hell yeah, that'll work...when he plays. But just keep in mind, were not talking any one week, it's season long. And if he's missing 5, 6, 7+ games, and, as been his MO for the past few season, significant chunks of those he does play..he's not soaking up much more than what Davis did.

There's just so much meat on the bone available before you start eating into Brown's target share, I just don't see it happening

 

[TKOSpikes]

481 eh?
240 each for JJ and AJ. Leaves one for the TE.

 

[averagejoe]

481 eh?
240 each for JJ and AJ. Leaves one for the TE.

But he only completed 315. Ouch.
Middle of the road QB and a target hog Julio has to impact the number of targets Brown gets imo.

Thought I did some research some time ago about players over 1000 yards?
Think the result was that it was hard for any player to sustain that kind of year-to-year output.
And rarely does it go up the following year. Only a select few elite can claim that accomplishment.
I'll have to find that.

 

[TREFF]

And rarely does it go up the following year. Only a select few elite can claim that accomplishment.
I'll have to find that

Well AJ was 1050 in '19, played in two less games in 2020, and went for 1075.

 

[averagejoe]

Well AJ was 1050 in '19, played in two less games in 2020, and went for 1075.

But AJ did not finish in the top 12 in either season.
Isn't that the point of this game?
He is being drafted as a top-12 WR and has yet to get there.

We've done this game for 6 seasons.
Yet on average, only 46% of the first-12 drafted finish that way.
And last season was one of the worst who missed (5 of 12) at 42%.

 

[TREFF]

But AJ did not finish in the top 12 in either season.
Isn't that the point of this game?
He is being drafted as a top-12 WR and has yet to get there.

We've done this game for 6 seasons.
Yet on average, only 46% of the first-12 drafted finish that way.
And last season was one of the worst who missed (5 of 12) at 42%.

Yes that is the point, I'm just commenting on your point. "Only a select few elite can get 1000 one year and increase the next". He has. And if half don't make it, the half that replaces them have to come from somewhere, just as well be AJ

 

[SmokingMonkey]

WR
1 Terry McLaurin
2 DeAndre Hopkins
3 Justin Jefferson
4 DK Metcalf
5 Allen Robinson
6 Mike Evans
7 Keenan Allen
8 AJ Brown
9 Devante Adams
10 Stefon Diggs
11 Calvin Ridley
12 Tyreek Hill

RB
1 Joe Mixon
2 Antonio Gibson
3 Saquon Barkley
4 Austin Ekeler
5 Aaron Jones
6 Alvin Kamara
7 Nick Chubb
8 Jonathan Taylor
9 Ezekiel Elliot
10 Dalvin Cook
11 Derrick Henry
12 Christian McCaffery

 

[averagejoe]

REMINDER: Final days before the season starts.
If you're new to this game, you may need to go back a page for the 2021 rules.

 

[averagejoe]

Let's make this official. Here are the current top 12 RB and WR being drafted per Fantasy Pros' ADP for standard scoring. It may be hard to imagine even before the season starts, yet historically, about HALF will not finish in the top 12 at their position by the end of the 2021 season.

For this season, in the event that less than half don't make it, please rank all 12 players starting with the most-likely to miss at 1 down to the least-likely to miss at 12. You can make as many adjustments as you want until kickoff on September 9th.

The season is over. @HaroldSeattle @TREFF @jwolt92 @SmokingMonkey @femurov @MilkSpiller22 @TKOSpikes
You probably forgot about this game?
(Part of me guesses no one wants to embarrass themselves in August. So you are the intrepid 7. Plus me.)

Here is how they ranked in August. And then this is who really finished in the top 12 at the end of the season.
For the record, this was a disastrous season. The fantasy point drop-off from Taylor to Gibson is jaw-dropping.

Nearly textbook, only 7 of the 12 RB finished in the top 12. 58%
Half of the WR (6 of the 12) did not finish in the top 12. 50%



Good thing I had you rank your entries this year.
Harold, femurov and jwolt tied with 7 players out of the 11 in the top half.

But with the rankings provided, HAROLD had more players ranked higher to miss.
Congrats Harold!


Here is a history of the past winners:
2015 - RB 25% (3 of 12); WR 50% (6 of 12)
2016 - RB 50% (6 of 12); WR 42% (5 of 12) SteelersPride & TKOSpikes tied with 8 correct.
2017 - RB 67% (8 of 12); WR 42% (5 of 12) No game.
2018 - RB 67% (8 of 12); WR 67% (8 of 12) ehb5 won with the most correct (5).
2019 - RB 50% (6 of 12); WR 33% (4 of 12) Barilko won with only 1 wrong player.
2020 - RB 58% (7 of 12); WR 42% (5 of 12) ehb5 won with 8 correct players and 2 tie-breaker players.
2021 - RB 58% (7 of 12); WR 50% (6 of 12) Harold won with 7 correct ranked highest to miss.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

The season is over. @HaroldSeattle @TREFF @jwolt92 @SmokingMonkey @femurov @MilkSpiller22 @TKOSpikes
You probably forgot about this game?
(Part of me guesses no one wants to embarrass themselves in August. So you are the intrepid 7. Plus me.)

Here is how they ranked in August. And then this is who really finished in the top 12 at the end of the season.
For the record, this was a disastrous season. The fantasy point drop-off from Taylor to Gibson is jaw-dropping.

Nearly textbook, only 7 of the 12 RB finished in the top 12. 58%
Half of the WR (6 of the 12) did not finish in the top 12. 50%

View attachment 286595

Good thing I had you rank your entries this year.
Harold, femurov and jwolt tied with 7 players out of the 11 in the top half.

But with the rankings provided, HAROLD had more players ranked higher to miss.
Congrats Harold!


Here is a history of the past winners:
2015 - RB 25% (3 of 12); WR 50% (6 of 12)
2016 - RB 50% (6 of 12); WR 42% (5 of 12) SteelersPride & TKOSpikes tied with 8 correct.
2017 - RB 67% (8 of 12); WR 42% (5 of 12) No game.
2018 - RB 67% (8 of 12); WR 67% (8 of 12) ehb5 won with the most correct (5).
2019 - RB 50% (6 of 12); WR 33% (4 of 12) Barilko won with only 1 wrong player.
2020 - RB 58% (7 of 12); WR 42% (5 of 12) ehb5 won with 8 correct players and 2 tie-breaker players.
2021 - RB 58% (7 of 12); WR 50% (6 of 12) Harold won with 7 correct ranked highest to miss.

Fun contest but dang hard

 

[jwolt92]

The season is over. @HaroldSeattle @TREFF @jwolt92 @SmokingMonkey @femurov @MilkSpiller22 @TKOSpikes
You probably forgot about this game?
(Part of me guesses no one wants to embarrass themselves in August. So you are the intrepid 7. Plus me.)

Here is how they ranked in August. And then this is who really finished in the top 12 at the end of the season.
For the record, this was a disastrous season. The fantasy point drop-off from Taylor to Gibson is jaw-dropping.

Nearly textbook, only 7 of the 12 RB finished in the top 12. 58%
Half of the WR (6 of the 12) did not finish in the top 12. 50%

View attachment 286595

Good thing I had you rank your entries this year.
Harold, femurov and jwolt tied with 7 players out of the 11 in the top half.

But with the rankings provided, HAROLD had more players ranked higher to miss.
Congrats Harold!


Here is a history of the past winners:
2015 - RB 25% (3 of 12); WR 50% (6 of 12)
2016 - RB 50% (6 of 12); WR 42% (5 of 12) SteelersPride & TKOSpikes tied with 8 correct.
2017 - RB 67% (8 of 12); WR 42% (5 of 12) No game.
2018 - RB 67% (8 of 12); WR 67% (8 of 12) ehb5 won with the most correct (5).
2019 - RB 50% (6 of 12); WR 33% (4 of 12) Barilko won with only 1 wrong player.
2020 - RB 58% (7 of 12); WR 42% (5 of 12) ehb5 won with 8 correct players and 2 tie-breaker players.
2021 - RB 58% (7 of 12); WR 50% (6 of 12) Harold won with 7 correct ranked highest to miss.

Thanks for doing this Joe, it's nice to look back after the season and see how things went compared to what everyone thought

 

[averagejoe]

Let's make this official for 2022.
Here are the current top 12 RB and WR being drafted per Fantasy Pros' ADP for standard scoring.

If you are new to this game (going on year 8 now), it may be hard to imagine before the season has started, yet historically and fairly consistently, about HALF will not finish in the top 12 at their respective position by the end of the season.

Please rank all 12 players below starting with the most-likely to miss at 1 down to the least-likely to miss at 12. You can make as many adjustments as you want until kickoff on Thursday September 8th.

​

@Shanemansj13 @HaroldSeattle @SmokingMonkey @jwolt92 @Chef99 @ehb5 @MilkSpiller22 @TKOSpikes @molsaniceman @TREFF @wilwhite @Sam Sportboy @Bandit @leftypower
...and anybody else not sitting on a cushion!

 

[Bandit]

RB

1 Saquon Barkley
2 D'Andre Swift
3 Alvin Kamara
4 Dalvin Cook
5 Christian McCaffery
6 Najee Harris
7 Austin Ekeler
8 Javonte Williams
9 Nick Chubb
10 Joe Mixon
11 Jonathan Taylor
12 Derrick Henry

WR

1 Deebo Samuel
2 AJ Brown
3 Keenan Allen
4 Tyreek Hill
5 Mike Evans
6 Tee Higgins
7 Ja'Marr Chase
8 Stefon Diggs
9 Ceedee Lamb
10 Davante Adams
11 Cooper Kupp
12 Justin Jefferson

 

[TKOSpikes]

Let's make this official for 2022.
Here are the current top 12 RB and WR being drafted per Fantasy Pros' ADP for standard scoring.

If you are new to this game (going on year 8 now), it may be hard to imagine before the season has started, yet historically and fairly consistently, about HALF will not finish in the top 12 at their respective position by the end of the season.

Please rank all 12 players below starting with the most-likely to miss at 1 down to the least-likely to miss at 12. You can make as many adjustments as you want until kickoff on Thursday September 8th.

View attachment 304426​

@Shanemansj13 @HaroldSeattle @SmokingMonkey @jwolt92 @Chef99 @ehb5 @MilkSpiller22 @TKOSpikes @molsaniceman @TREFF @wilwhite @Sam Sportboy @Bandit @leftypower
...and anybody else not sitting on a cushion!

RB
1) Swift
2) Barkley
3) Kamara
4) Javonte
5) Harris
6) Ekeler
7) Chubb
8) Cook
9) Mixon
10) Henry
11) Taylor
12) McCaffery

WR
1) Higgins
2) Brown
3) Allen
4) Deebo
5) Lamb
6) Hill
7) Evans
8) Adams
9) Kupp
10) Jefferson
11) Diggs
12) Chase

Winner winner chicken dinner

 

[HaroldSeattle]

RB
1) Kamara
2) Barkley
3) McCaffery
4) Swift
5) Ekeler
6) Mixon
7) Harris
8) Cook
9) Williams
10) Henery
11) Chubb
12) Taylor

WR
1) Brown
2) Deebo
3) Allen
4) Adams
5) Hill
6) Evans
7) Higgins
8) Chase
9) Lamb
10) Diggs
11) Kupp
12) Jefferson

 

[SmokingMonkey]

RB

1 Javonte Williams
2 Nick Chubb
3 D'Andre Swift
4 Alvin Kamara
5 Jonathan Taylor
6 Saquon Barkley
7 Christian McCaffery
8 Austin Ekeler
9 Najee Harris
10 Dalvin Cook
11 Derrick Henry
12 Joe Mixon (my #1 most likely to miss last yr!)

WR

1 Tyreek Hill (my #12 least likely to miss last yr!)
2 Deebo Samuel
3 Keenan Allen
4 AJ Brown
5 Ja'Marr Chase
6 Tee Higgins
7 Davante Adams
8 CeeDee Lamb
9 Mike Evans
10 Stefon Diggs
11 Cooper Kupp
12 Justin Jefferson

 

[Clayton]

No idea what I'm doing here but if this is open to randoms then I'll give it a shot

1 D'Andre Swift
2 Saquon Barkley
3 Alvin Kamara
4 Najee Harris
5 Nick Chubb
6 CMC
7 Javonte Williams
8 Austin Ekeler
9 Derrick Henry
10 Joe Mixon
11 Dalvin Cook
12 Jonathan Taylor


1 AJ Brown
2 Tyreek Hill
3 Deebo Samuel
4 Ceedee Lamb
5 Tee Higgins
6 Keenan Allen
7 Jamarr Chase
8 Davante Adams
9 Stefon Diggs
10 Mike Evans
11 Cooper Kupp
12 Justin Jefferson

 

[TREFF]

RB
1) swift
2) Barkley
3) Kamara
4) cook
5) Henry
6) Ekeler
7) CMAC
8) Williams
9) Mixon
10) N Harris
11) Chubb
12) Taylor



WR

1) Deebo
2) Higgins
3) Brown
4) Allen
5) Diggs
6) Evans
7) Kupp
8) Adams
9) Lamb
10) Kupp
11) Chase
12) Jefferson

 

[Bandit]

RB
1) swift
2) Barkley
3) Kamara
4) cook
5) Henry
6) Ekeler
7) CMAC
8) Williams
9) Mixon
10) N Harris
11) Chubb
12) Taylor



WR

1) Deebo
2) Higgins
3) Brown
4) Allen
5) Diggs
6) Evans
7) Kupp
8) Adams
9) Lamb
10) Kupp
11) Chase
12) Jefferson

Damn Treff Kupp is 7th and 10th and you left Hill off. Now that he's in Miami is he dead to you. LOL

 

[TREFF]

Damn Treff Kupp is 7th and 10th and you left Hill off. Now that he's in Miami is he dead to you. LOL

Well thats what happens when you lazily copy and paste someone else's and edit it..you screw it up.
Hill should be 7