None Shall Pass...

[averagejoe]

Sorry, forgot to include @Bandit

 

[TKOSpikes]

2022 RESULTS
@TREFF @femurov @Barilko @SmokingMonkey @MilkSpiller22 @HaroldSeattle @wilwhite @jwolt92 @ZepTepi @Clayton

@TKOSpikes is this year's winner!

In both categories, 7 of the 12 finished in the top 12. So both RB and WR had a 58% success rate.

The ranking made the scoring easier too. Everyone took a hit on Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp. Some not as bad as others.

The 5 original RB from August to not make the top 12 at the end of the season were:
Joe Mixon (14th); Kamara (18); Swift (24); Taylor (35) and Javonte Williams (86).

The 5 original WR to not make the final 12 were:
Mike Evans (16th); Higgins (17); Kupp (24); Deebo Samuel (34) and Keenan Allen (41).

Here's how the top 12 RB and WR finished (in standard scoring). Josh Jacobs finishes first overall for the RB and he wasn't even drafted in the top 12 at the start of the season.

View attachment 318591

 

[Clayton]

I guess every L is a learning experience.

The QB mattered less with the WRs than I thought. I saw Mike Evans with two years big TD numbers with Brady and then he comes back and puts a pre-Brady TD year with his normal numbers. Tds are just too volatile to predict.

I saw a career year with Joe Mixon and thought 'hey improved oline = success' and not 'Joe Mixon just had a career year. Dont bet on that'

Its a fun exercise.

 

[averagejoe]

View attachment 318594

Adding up the rankings of the players that missed, you ended up with the least.
A lot of your "most likely to miss" players did indeed end up missing, so your score was the lowest.

Treff was runner up. Barilko was 3rd.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I knew I was going to lose once Gina Davis’ nephew did not pan out.

 

[TREFF]

Adding up the rankings of the players that missed, you ended up with the least.
A lot of your "most likely to miss" players did indeed end up missing, so your score was the lowest.

Treff was runner up. Barilko was 3rd.

In a deal like this, I will proudly take second. These ones are the shits to project and try to predict. thanks for doing it Joe!

 

[Barilko]

3rdbpick overall in Ol School. 3rd in none shall pass. Man i have to work on being number 1.... @ better than @averagejoe. Thanks Joe ...

 

[TREFF]

3rdbpick overall in Ol School. 3rd in none shall pass. Man i have to work on being number 1.... @ better than @averagejoe. Thanks Joe ...

you got #1 in D1, yes?

 

[Barilko]

you got #1 in D1, yes?

many moons ago ya good Ol DoublEE

 

[averagejoe]

So I kinda forgot about this game for the 2023 season.

But you'll happy to know that it would have been horrible for everyone.
Only five (42%) of the first 12 WR drafted finished in the top 12.
And only four (33%) of the first 12 RB drafted finished in the top 12.

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Ja’Marr Chase
3. Cooper Kupp
4. Tyreek Hill (2)
5. Stefon Diggs (12)
6. CeeDee Lamb (1)
7. Davante Adams
8. A.J. Brown (8)
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown (3)
10. Garrett Wilson
11. Jaylen Waddle
12. Chris Olave

(4) Mike Evans
(5) Puka Nacua
(6) DJ Moore
(7) Deebo Samuel Jr.
(9) Nico Collins
(10) Brandon Aiyuk
(11) Keenan Allen

1. Christian McCaffrey (1)
2. Austin Ekeler
3. Bijan Robinson (12)
4. Saquon Barkley
5. Jonathan Taylor
6. Nick Chubb
7. Josh Jacobs
8. Tony Pollard
9. Derrick Henry (5)
10. Breece Hall (7)
11. Najee Harris
12. Rhamondre Stevenson

(2) Raheem Mostert
(3) Travis Etienne Jr.
(4) Kyren Williams
(6) Joe Mixon
(8) Rachaad White
(9) David Montgomery
(10) Jahmyr Gibbs
(11) James Cook

 

[HaroldSeattle]

So I kinda forgot about this game for the 2023 season.

Lets do this for this season, should be a hoot to see how bad we all are. LOL

 

[averagejoe]

Let's make this official for 2024.
Here are the current ADP top 12 RB and WR being drafted per Fantasy Pros' standard scoring.

If you are new to this game (going on year 10 now), it may be hard to imagine before the season has even started, yet historically and fairly consistently, about HALF of the first 12 RB and WR will NOT finish in the top 12 at their respective position at the end of the fantasy season.

Please rank all 12 players below starting with the most-likely to miss at #1 down to the least-likely to miss at #12. You can make as many adjustments as you want until kickoff on Thursday September 5th.

Players that miss the cut at season's end will be scored by how you rank them.

​

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Appreciate you doing this annually @averagejoe this is always a challenge deciding how to rank them. Really hard to make up your mind, always easy to second guess your choices even if normally making decisions comes easy.

 

[averagejoe]

If it helps with cutting & pasting, here's the text instead of a picture:

Christian McCaffrey
Breece Hall
Bijan Robinson
Jonathan Taylor
Saquon Barkley
Jahmyr Gibbs
Kyren Williams
Travis Etienne Jr.
Derrick Henry
De'Von Achane
Isiah Pacheco
Josh Jacobs

Tyreek Hill
CeeDee Lamb
Justin Jefferson
Ja'Marr Chase
Amon-Ra St. Brown
A.J. Brown
Garrett Wilson
Puka Nacua
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Davante Adams
Drake London
Deebo Samuel Sr.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I know it’s not the name of the game. But what if we think this season will be the exception to the rule and there are more than 6 players that are top 12

 

[averagejoe]

I know it’s not the name of the game. But what if we think this season will be the exception to the rule and there are more than 6 players that are top 12

There was 1 season where 7 or 8 of the WR finished in the top 12. This is why we rank our 12, in case more than half surprise us.

 

[TREFF]

I typically do better at these when I just shoot from the hip

most likely to miss at #1, least likely to miss at #12-
1. Isiah Pacheco
2. De'Von Achane
3. Travis Etienne Jr.
4 .Kyren Williams
5 .Jahmyr Gibbs
6. Breece Hall
7. Josh Jacobs
8. Jonathan Taylor
9. Saquon Barkley
10. Derrick Henry
11. Bijan Robinson
12. Christian McCaffrey


1. Drake London
2. Marvin Harrison Jr.
3. Garrett Wilson
4. Davante Adams
5. Deebo Samuel Sr.
6. A.J. Brown
7. Puka Nacua
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown
9. Justin Jefferson
10. Ja'Marr Chase
11. Tyreek Hill
12. CeeDee Lamb

 

[TKOSpikes]

RB
1 - Pacheco
2 - Williams
3 - Jacobs
4 - Gibbs
5 - Barkley
6 - Achane
7 - Hall
8 - Robinson
9 - Etienne
10 - Henry
11 - Taylor
12 - McCaffrey

WR
1 - Harrison
2 - Nakua
3 - Adams
4 - Jefferson
5 - Samuel
6 - London
7 - Brown
8 - Wilson
9 - Chase
10 - Lamb
11 - St Brown
12 - Hill

 

[jwolt92]

1. Kyren Williams
2. De'Von Achane
3. Derrick Henry
4. Saquon Barkley
5. Isiah Pacheco
6. Bijan Robinson
7. Jahmyr Gibbs
8. Jonathan Taylor
9. Josh Jacobs
10. Travis Etienne Jr.
11. CMC
12. Breece Hall

1. Marvin Harrison Jr.
2. Drake London
3. Davante Adams
4. AJ Brown
5. Puka Nacua
6. Ja'Marr Chase
7. Justin Jefferson
8. ARSB
9. Garrett Wilson
10. Tyreek Hill
11. Deebo Samuel
12. CeeDee Lamb

 

[HaroldSeattle]

RB:
1) Achane
2) Jacobs
3) Pacheco
4) Henry
5) Barkley
6) Gibbs
7) Etienne
8) Taylor
9) Williams
10) Robinson
11) Hall
12) McCaffery

WR:
1) Adams
2) London
3) Samuel
4) Wilson
5) Harrison
6) Chase
7) AJ Brown
8) Nacue
9) St. Brown
10) Jefferson
11) Lamb
12) Hill