NL MVP

[soxfan1468927]

Yeah, but in the 3rd inning he came up with no outs and a runner on first. He could have bunted, but did he? Oh no, instead he hits into a double play. I think that will cost him.

Argh! He is 3rd in the NL in double plays grounded into. Probably because he's a power hitter who doesn't strike out a lot and doesn't walk a lot. 3rd in the NL in HRs, but 32nd in walks and 52nd in strikeouts.

 

[tducey]

Going with Goldschmidt.

 

[Hummer_molested_me]

Charlie Blackman

I agree. My first reaction was Goldschmidt since he has the power but Charlie Blackmon has a better OPS and is responsible for 302 runs compared to Goldy's 286.

Looks like a much better race than last year with some batters who actually deserve it.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Going with Goldschmidt.

The reason I went with Arenado over Goldschmidt is I think the offensive difference is negated by the difference in positional value, defense, and clutch situations.

Goldschmidt leads Arenado in OPS by 34 points and wOBA by 15. Yes, Arenado plays in an extreme hitter's park, but so does Goldschmidt. And while Arenado's OPS drops 13.8% from home to away and his wOBA drops 14.4%, Goldschmidt's OPS drops 20.1% and his wOBA drops 22.1%. Suggesting Goldschmidt gets more of a boost from his home park than Arenado does.

As for the positional value, the average 1st baseman in the NL this year has an OPS of .840 so Goldschmidt's OPS is 17.5% higher than the average NL 1st baseman. The average NL 3rd baseman has an OPS of .770, so Arenado's OPS is 23.9% higher than the average NL 3rd baseman.

Goldschmidt is good defensively but Arenado is elite. He's the been the best 3rd baseman in the game for a while now.

And finally, to me it does matter when a player is performing. A HR when the it's a 6-0 game in the 8th inning just isn't as valuable as a tie game in the 9th. With 2 outs and RISP this year, Arenado has a 1.309 OPS, Goldschmidt is at .881. In Late & Close situations, Arenado has an .872 OPS, Goldschmidt is at .702. Arenado is better the closer the game is. It's the opposite for Goldschmidt.

Arenado
Margin > 4 runs: .861 OPS
Within 4 runs: .971
Within 3 runs: .993
Within 2 runs: 1.001
Within 1 run: 1.023
Tie Game: 1.126

Goldschmidt
Margin > 4 runs: 1.110 OPS
Within 4 runs: .970
Within 3 runs: .967
Within 2 runs: .965
Within 1 run: .954
Tie Game: .904

 

[soxfan1468927]

I agree. My first reaction was Goldschmidt since he has the power but Charlie Blackmon has a better OPS and is responsible for 302 runs compared to Goldy's 286.

Looks like a much better race than last year with some batters who actually deserve it.

How exactly does a player become responsible for a run? Seems like you are just adding RBI and hits?

 

[Hummer_molested_me]

How exactly does a player become responsible for a run? Seems like you are just adding runs and RBI

That's exactly how. I am pretty there is a stat something like "runs contributed."

IMO, there is nothing more valuable than scoring runs.

Defense is definitely a factor as well and I think Blackmon is the better and more valuable defensive player as well. We can stick just about anyone at 1B but playing CF has a much higher degree of difficulty and importance.

 

[navamind]

That's exactly how. I am pretty there is a stat something like "runs contributed."

IMO, there is nothing more valuable than scoring runs.

Defense is definitely a factor as well and I think Blackmon is the better and more valuable defensive player as well. We can stick just about anyone at 1B but playing CF has a much higher degree of difficulty and importance.

well, that's a horrible way of trying to quantify how many runs their offense has been worth

 

[soxfan1468927]

That's exactly how. I am pretty there is a stat something like "runs contributed."

IMO, there is nothing more valuable than scoring runs.

Defense is definitely a factor as well and I think Blackmon is the better and more valuable defensive player as well. We can stick just about anyone at 1B but playing CF has a much higher degree of difficulty and importance.

1. You added runs and hits, not runs and RBI

2. If you hit a HR, you get a run and an RBI, but it's only worth 1 run. So you would need to subtract that.

3. Here's a scenario:
Player A reaches on an error
Player B hits a double, Player A goes to 3rd
Player C grounds out, Player A scores

Player A is credited with a run, Player C is credited with an RBI, and (according to your stat) player B was not responsible for that run scoring at all.

These happen in baseball all the time, so simply looking at runs and RBI is useless.

 

[soxfan1468927]

And just for kicks, here's the list of the top 10 players in that "responsible for runs" stat (runs+RBI-HR)

1. Paul Goldschmidt: 201
2. Charlie Blackmon: 196
3. Nolan Arenado: 190
4. Giancarlo Stanton: 187
5. Aaron Judge: 184
6. Mookie Betts: 176
7. Anthony Rizzo: 175
8. Justin Upton: 172
9. Marcell Ozuna: 171
10 (tied). Nelson Cruz: 166
10 (tied). Elvis Andrus: 166

 

[Hummer_molested_me]

well, that's a horrible way of trying to quantify how many runs their offense has been worth

I disagree.

 

[Hummer_molested_me]

1. You added runs and hits, not runs and RBI

2. If you hit a HR, you get a run and an RBI, but it's only worth 1 run. So you would need to subtract that.

3. Here's a scenario:
Player A reaches on an error
Player B hits a double, Player A goes to 3rd
Player C grounds out, Player A scores

Player A is credited with a run, Player C is credited with an RBI, and (according to your stat) player B was not responsible for that run scoring at all.

These happen in baseball all the time, so simply looking at runs and RBI is useless.

Good points. I still think Blackmon is the MVP based on OPS and defense.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

Arenado's deserving. OTOH, you could make the argument he might only be the 4th-most deserving NL third baseman.

IMO, Votto should win, Bryant could win, Stanton will win.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

Paul Goldschmidt. It's his time.

He's been frowned upon in the voting in the past and finished 2nd due to his team not winning... well, now he's on a winning team and he's having a career year, it's all lined up.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

It may be time to start talking about JD Martinez for this award as well... my lord. He won't win it, missed too much time early on, but what an impact he has been.

 

[Hummer_molested_me]

JD Martinez won't win it but he definitely deserves mention.

In 59 Gs & 222 ABs:

OPS: 1.123
HR: 29
RBI: 65
R: 47

 

[soxfan1468927]

Paul Goldschmidt. It's his time.

He's been frowned upon in the voting in the past and finished 2nd due to his team not winning... well, now he's on a winning team and he's having a career year, it's all lined up.

I don't see how Goldschmidt deserved it in 2013/2015. I think he lost because McCutchen and Harper were better, not because he wasn't on a winning team.

 

[navamind]

Harper was the best player in the NL in 2015 and it wasn't particularly close. McCutchen was a CF with a 157 OPS+ in 2013. Goldschmidt had great years, but I really don't see an argument for him winning those years. And as I said before, I'm not convinced he's been any better offensively than Stanton/Votto.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Paul Goldschmidt. It's his time.

He's been frowned upon in the voting in the past and finished 2nd due to his team not winning... well, now he's on a winning team and he's having a career year, it's all lined up.

He wasn't as good as McCutchen in 2013, and wasn't as good as Harper in 2015.


And your logic regarding a 'winning team' makes no sense because Harper's team didn't make the playoffs either when he won MVP and Goldschmidt finished 2nd.

 

[navamind]

He wasn't as good as McCutchen in 2013, and wasn't as good as Harper in 2015.


And your logic regarding a 'winning team' makes no sense because Harper's team didn't make the playoffs either when he won MVP and Goldschmidt finished 2nd.

yeah really. Rizzo finished the highest among MVP candidates on playoff teams and he was 4th behind Votto, who played on a 98-loss Reds team. There's a reason Harper got all 30 first place votes (because he had a historically good year).

 

[StanMarsh51]

yeah really. Rizzo finished the highest among MVP candidates on playoff teams and he was 4th behind Votto, who played on a 98-loss Reds team. There's a reason Harper got all 30 first place votes (because he had a historically good year).

Yep...it's a shame both Harper and Trout got hurt this year, as it would've been cool to see both phenoms win MVPs in the same year.