NFC West

[BINGO]

Schedule strength and a 49ers follow-up
April, 13, 2012 1:10PM ET
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

The San Francisco 49ers return all their starters from one of the NFL's best defenses.

Others play great defense, too.

The earlier item pointing out what history says about the 49ers' chances for another 13-victory season generated immediate defensive responses via Twitter.

"Thanks, Sando. You're a freaking genius," @in4td wrote.

A sarcastic comment, obviously, and one with some merit. It should be clear that any team finishing 13-3 will be more likely to finish with a worse record the following year. I wanted to provide context to help set expectations. I also realized the headline -- "Bank on it: 49ers heading south in 2012" -- was more provocative than most and would generate some reaction.

Another response, one suggesting the 49ers would face a tougher strength of schedule, was the genesis for the remainder of this entry.

First, the usual disclaimers about schedule strength. How a team finished one season doesn't always indicate how it will fare the next, so there are limitations.

The chart, from ESPN Stats & Information, shows where teams rank in 2012 schedule strength based on 2011 records. The 49ers' success last season partly explains why Arizona, Seattle and St. Louis rank among the top 11 in strength of schedule using 2011 records. The 49ers rank tied for 24th; they obviously cannot play themselves.

The scheduling rotation pits the NFC West against teams from the NFC North and AFC East this season, a change from the NFC East and AFC North last season. The rotation means NFC West teams will face the 15-1 Green Bay Packers and 13-3 New England Patriots. Those teams might not go a combined 28-4 again, but they have been consistently formidable.

Chicago could improve upon its 8-8 mark with Jay Cutler healthy. Minnesota finished 3-13, an unusually poor record that could improve. AFC East teams Miami and Buffalo went 6-10 and could reasonably finish within a couple games of that, either way. And if Jeff Fisher can help the Rams improve markedly from 2-14, schedule strengths for their NFC West rivals and other opponents would toughen up accordingly.

.

2012 NFL Strength of Schedule By Team
A look at the most difficult schedules in 2012 (based on opponents' 2011 record).
Rank Team Combined W-L Record Winning Pct. Games vs. Quality Opp.**
1 N.Y. Giants* 140-116 .547 7
2 Denver* 139-117 .543 7
3 Cleveland 135-121 .527 7
4 St. Louis 134-122 .523 5
4 Baltimore* 134-122 .523 7
6 San Diego 133-123 .520 6
7 Philadelphia 132-124 .516 8
8 Minnesota 131-125 .512 7
8 Arizona 131-125 .512 6
10 Carolina 130-126 .508 5
11 Seattle 129-127 .504 5
11 Dallas 129-127 .504 7
11 New Orleans* 129-127 .504 5
14 Jacksonville 128-128 .500 8
14 Cincinnati* 128-128 .500 5
14 Pittsburgh* 128-128 .500 6
14 Indianapolis 128-128 .500 7
18 Oakland 127-129 .496 5
18 Miami 127-129 .496 6
20 N.Y. Jets 126-130 .492 6
20 Kansas City 126-130 .492 5
20 Chicago 126-130 .492 7
20 Detroit* 126-130 .492 6
24 Washington 125-131 .488 7
24 Atlanta* 125-131 .488 4
24 San Francisco* 125-131 .488 5
27 Tampa Bay 124-132 .484 5
28 Tennessee 123-133 .480 6
29 Houston* 121-135 .473 6
29 Buffalo 121-135 .473 5
31 Green Bay* 120-136 .469 7
32 New England* 116-140 .453 4
* 2011 playoff team.

 

[BINGO]

Podcast: Jeff Fisher on bounties, Bradford
April, 13, 2012 11:53AM ET
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

Highlights and interpretations from St. Louis Rams coach Jeff Fisher's conversation Friday with "Mike & Mike in the Morning" on ESPN Radio:

•Bounty impact: Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' indefinite suspension affected the Rams as they began their voluntary offseason program April 2. Fisher: "We were behind a little bit as we began to install with our players because the offseason program started a couple weeks ago, but we're caught up now." Wait, coaches can install their schemes during Phase One of the offseason program? Yes, they can, but only in meetings, not on the field. More here.

•Taking back Williams: Fisher expects Williams to make a positive impact off the field before the league considers whether to let him coach again. Fisher was non-committal about Williams returning to the Rams, if cleared, but he did not discourage the notion. Fisher said the team would have to consider the possibility in concert with whatever the league decides.

•Challenging league report: The NFL's punishment report regarding the Saints' bounty program suggested opposing players indeed suffered injuries as a result. "A review of the game films confirms that opposing players were injured on the plays identified in the documents," it read. Fisher, while agreeing with the push to eliminate bounty-type systems, took a different view Friday: "I don't believe there was an injury associated with those type of things that was said in a meeting, but the point is, you just don't say it and that is where we have the problem."

•Player safety in general: Players are adjusting to new NFL rules to a degree that probably escapes most fans, Fisher said. "They are not launching any more through a defenseless receiver. Players are trying to stay away from the legs of the quarterback." We've pointed to penalty tendencies for Fisher's former teams in Tennessee. Most of information predates the NFL's emphasis on player safety. I'll be interested in seeing whether those tendencies change.

•High praise for Bradford: Fisher affirmed his commitment to Sam Bradford and said others in the league told him the quarterback has the potential to be the NFL's best at the position, a factor in Fisher's decision to take the job.

Those are a few of the highlights. The Rams got a two-week jump on their NFC West rivals' offseason programs because they have a new head coach.

 

[BINGO]

Bank on it: 49ers heading south in 2012
April, 13, 2012 10:44AM ET
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a 13-3 season. They have re-signed key players, added a few new ones, and set themselves up for another successful season.

Doesn't matter.

They're going down in 2012. Recent history tells us so, anyway.

Nineteen NFL teams won at least 13 games in a season from 2004 through 2010. All 19 finished with fewer victories the following season. The drop was 4.1 victories per team on average, from 13.5 to 9.4. The 2003 and 2004 New England Patriots were the most recent team to win at least 13 games in consecutive seasons. They went 14-2 both times.

Of course, there are only 16 games in a season. The better a team fares one season, the less potential for improvement exists in the following one. At a certain point, there is almost nowhere to go but down. The 49ers approached that point last season. The math is working against them in 2012.

Sixty-one teams have finished 13-3 or better since the NFL adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978, according to Pro Football Reference. None finished with a better record the following season. Five finished with the same record:

•49ers: 14-2 in 1989 and 1990.
•Buffalo Bills: 13-3 in 1990 and 1991.
•Green Bay Packers: 13-3 in 1996 and 1997.
•Tennessee Titans: 13-3 in 1999 and 2000.
•Patriots: 13-3 in 2003 and 2004.

The current 49ers can still win the NFC West in their second season under coach Jim Harbaugh. They can still win in the playoffs. But if they finish the 2012 season with 13 or more victories, they'll be breaking from a strong trend. Recent history suggests the 49ers should be thrilled to finish even 10-6 or better this season.

Thirteen teams have gone 13-3 since 2004. Those teams won 8.3 games on average the following season. Only three finished better than 9-7: The 2007 Indianapolis Colts ((12-4), the 2009 New Orleans Saints (11-5) and 2010 Atlanta Falcons (10-6).

Green Bay, New England and New Orleans joined the 49ers at 13-3 or better last season.

The chart shows what happened to teams finishing 13-3 or better since 2004.

2004-2010: Teams with 13+ Victories
Team Season Victories Victories next season Difference
New England Patriots 2010 14 13 -1
Indianapolis Colts 2007 13 12 -1
Indianapolis Colts 2005 14 12 -2
New Orleans Saints 2009 13 11 -2
San Diego Chargers 2006 14 11 -3
Atlanta Falcons 2010 13 10 -3
Pittsburgh Steelers 2004 15 11 -4
Indianapolis Colts 2009 14 10 -4
New England Patriots 2004 14 10 -4
Denver Broncos 2005 13 9 -4
Seattle Seahawks 2005 13 9 -4
Dallas Cowboys 2007 13 9 -4
San Diego Chargers 2009 13 9 -4
New England Patriots 2007 16 11 -5
Tennessee Titans 2008 13 8 -5
Chicago Bears 2006 13 7 -6
Green Bay Packers 2007 13 6 -7
Philadelphia Eagles 2004 13 6 -7
Baltimore Ravens

 

[deep9er]

my guess is most 49er fans already expect less than 13-3? anyways, the first goal is make the play-offs, second is win the West, third is obtain a bye week, etc..

we always want to win every game, but if we go 10-6 and win the West, thats ok. then we go into the play-offs and see what happens?

 

[deep9er]

Schedule strength and a 49ers follow-up
April, 13, 2012 1:10PM ET
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

The San Francisco 49ers return all their starters from one of the NFL's best defenses.

Others play great defense, too.

The earlier item pointing out what history says about the 49ers' chances for another 13-victory season generated immediate defensive responses via Twitter.

"Thanks, Sando. You're a freaking genius," @in4td wrote.

A sarcastic comment, obviously, and one with some merit. It should be clear that any team finishing 13-3 will be more likely to finish with a worse record the following year. I wanted to provide context to help set expectations. I also realized the headline -- "Bank on it: 49ers heading south in 2012" -- was more provocative than most and would generate some reaction.

Another response, one suggesting the 49ers would face a tougher strength of schedule, was the genesis for the remainder of this entry.

First, the usual disclaimers about schedule strength. How a team finished one season doesn't always indicate how it will fare the next, so there are limitations.

The chart, from ESPN Stats & Information, shows where teams rank in 2012 schedule strength based on 2011 records. The 49ers' success last season partly explains why Arizona, Seattle and St. Louis rank among the top 11 in strength of schedule using 2011 records. The 49ers rank tied for 24th; they obviously cannot play themselves.

The scheduling rotation pits the NFC West against teams from the NFC North and AFC East this season, a change from the NFC East and AFC North last season. The rotation means NFC West teams will face the 15-1 Green Bay Packers and 13-3 New England Patriots. Those teams might not go a combined 28-4 again, but they have been consistently formidable.

Chicago could improve upon its 8-8 mark with Jay Cutler healthy. Minnesota finished 3-13, an unusually poor record that could improve. AFC East teams Miami and Buffalo went 6-10 and could reasonably finish within a couple games of that, either way. And if Jeff Fisher can help the Rams improve markedly from 2-14, schedule strengths for their NFC West rivals and other opponents would toughen up accordingly.

.

2012 NFL Strength of Schedule By Team
A look at the most difficult schedules in 2012 (based on opponents' 2011 record).
Rank Team Combined W-L Record Winning Pct. Games vs. Quality Opp.**
1 N.Y. Giants* 140-116 .547 7
2 Denver* 139-117 .543 7
3 Cleveland 135-121 .527 7
4 St. Louis 134-122 .523 5
4 Baltimore* 134-122 .523 7
6 San Diego 133-123 .520 6
7 Philadelphia 132-124 .516 8
8 Minnesota 131-125 .512 7
8 Arizona 131-125 .512 6
10 Carolina 130-126 .508 5
11 Seattle 129-127 .504 5
11 Dallas 129-127 .504 7
11 New Orleans* 129-127 .504 5
14 Jacksonville 128-128 .500 8
14 Cincinnati* 128-128 .500 5
14 Pittsburgh* 128-128 .500 6
14 Indianapolis 128-128 .500 7
18 Oakland 127-129 .496 5
18 Miami 127-129 .496 6
20 N.Y. Jets 126-130 .492 6
20 Kansas City 126-130 .492 5
20 Chicago 126-130 .492 7
20 Detroit* 126-130 .492 6
24 Washington 125-131 .488 7
24 Atlanta* 125-131 .488 4
24 San Francisco* 125-131 .488 5
27 Tampa Bay 124-132 .484 5
28 Tennessee 123-133 .480 6
29 Houston* 121-135 .473 6
29 Buffalo 121-135 .473 5
31 Green Bay* 120-136 .469 7
32 New England* 116-140 .453 4
* 2011 playoff team.

hmm....so our schedule isn't as hard as we thought?

nah, i don't take anyone for granted so it'll be hard enough.

 

[BINGO]

The Seahawks' QB battle
9:36AM ET
Matt Flynn | Seahawks

In the time since the Seattle Seahawks signed QB Matt Flynn, the team has stayed on message that he was not being brought in as the definite starter; instead, it would be a competition with incumbent Tarvaris Jackson. During an appearance with Joe Rose of WQAM this week -- per Sports Radio Interviews -- Seahawks HC Pete Carroll confirmed that this is how they'll proceed.

"What we are looking for is to make this position very competitive," Carroll explained. "Tarvaris Jackson was our starter last year and he's coming in to compete head-to-head for the starting job. It's my job now to make sure I create a competitive opportunity for both kids to show they can fit in and we'll go with the best guy and it's going to make our quarterback position better certainly. We are happy about that."

But will there be a third entrant? On Monday, Peter King of Sports Illustrated indicated that if Texas A&M passer Ryan Tannehill slips to Seattle at No. 12, they will most likely take him. That would require the Browns, Dolphins and Chiefs passing him up (as well as any other team potentially trading up ahead of them), but it remains a possibility.

- Tim Kavanagh​

 

[BINGO]

Seattle wants Tannehill?
2:41PM ET
Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks have existed on the periphery of all the Ryan Tannehill madness throughout this draft season, and with just over a week to go, they've emerged to take on an intriguing spot in the pecking order; namely, the point beyond which he will not fall on the night of Apr. 26.

"Teams around the league know how much Seattle loves Tannehill," Peter King of Sports Illustrated writes Monday. "And you can write this down: If Tannehill were to be there at 12, Seattle would take him, even though the Seahawks just paid medium dollar for Matt Flynn in free agency. That's how much Seattle loves him."

While the Seahawks would apparently jump at the chance to add Tannehill if he's still on the board at No. 12, there've been no hints that the team is going to trade up in order to ensure that they get him. In fact, most reports have indicated that the Seahawks are unlikely to do so.

So the No. 12 pick appears to be the floor, and if Tannehill makes it by Cleveland at No. 4 and Miami at No. 8, those subsequent picks become very valuable for the teams possessing them.

- Tim Kavanagh​

 

[BINGO]

The Rams' second pick
3:52PM ET
St. Louis Rams

The first pick of the second day of the NFL Draft is always a valuable one, as teams have quite a lot of time to consider whether they'd like to trade up and take one of the players that managed to fall through the cracks in Round 1. The St. Louis Rams have that pick this year, and so in one future reality, they'll be shipping that pick to some team that comes in with a big offer -- and remember, they already have the Washington Redskins' second-rounder (No. 39 overall), so moving back significantly won't be a problem.

While we can speculate all day over who might be interested, it will be largely dependent upon who actually does fall to that spot. But if the Rams keep the pick, who will they take?

One possibility is adding a RB to take some of the load off of Steven Jackson in the short term and take over the duties completely when his time with the club is through. Options in that cohort include Boise St.'s Doug Martin, Va. Tech's David Wilson and Miami's Lamar Miller.

- Tim Kavanagh​

 

[BINGO]

The Rams' starting O-line
9:51 AM ET
St. Louis Rams

The St. Louis Rams have some moving parts on the offensive line heading into 2012 -- and may be adding some more options via the NFL Draft -- but the team's mini-camp this week offered an early look at what might be the starting five when the proverbial bullets start to fly this fall.

As of now, according to Nick Wagoner of StLouisRams.com, the OT tandem of Rodger Saffold on the left and Jason Smith on the right will continue. The open spot at LG is being manned by a committee of Robert Turner and Bryan Mattison and Quinn Ojinnaka may also be in the mix there. Newly-signed C Scott Wells and RG Harvey Dahl fill out the remaining spots.

While drafting a prospect to play LG at No. 6 overall would qualify as a complete shock, the Rams also have the No. 33 and No. 39 overall selections, and could target the position there.

- Tim Kavanagh​

 

[BINGO]

Niners decided on Round 1 pick?
8:54AM ET
San Francisco 49ers

A lot can happen over the course of the first 29 selections of the NFL Draft; however, San Francisco 49ers GM Trent Baalke is confident with one week to go that the player the team likes at that spot will still be on the board for them when their turn comes up on the night of Apr. 26.

"We'll see how the board falls," Baalke noted at a pre-draft meeting with the media this week, according to Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle. "We certainly have more than one person, but there is [a player] in particular we feel will be there."

Baalke declined to say who that player was (for obvious reasons), joking that it could even be a punter. [Editor's note: No long-snapper love?] Niners HC Jim Harbaugh even hinted that Baalke was perhaps messing with everyone with the idea that the team had already identified its target.

"I think Trent's trying to be dramatic with you guys," Harbaugh quipped. "Trying to build the drama. There's several -- there's a lot of good guys, put it that way. There are a lot of good guys that we'd love to have at that pick."

It's still anyone's guess what the Niners will wind up doing in Round 1 and afterwards, as they did a fine job of shoring up some holes up and down the roster in free agency. One lingering question remains at RG, however, so perhaps they have a particular interior O-lineman in mind at that spot.

- Tim Kavanagh​

 

[BINGO]

Seattle looking to trade down?
10:29AM ET
Seattle Seahawks

After addressing what they felt were the Seattle Seahawks' biggest needs through their first two drafts and free agency, Seahawks GM John Schneider and HC Pete Carroll can now truly adopt the "best player available" strategy in this year's draft. And that could involve trading down in Round 1 if they believe they can still get a good player further down than No. 12 overall.

"If somebody does something that's really attractive, then we feel comfortable with the way we've prepared that we can go back, too," Schneider confirmed, according to Clare Farnsworth of Seahawks.com. "We feel like we've covered some things so we can go ahead and just take the good players that come to us."

There's some belief that finding another pass-rusher is of paramount importance for Seattle in this year's draft. If they stick at No. 12, they should have a nice crop from which to choose. In Mel Kiper, Jr.'s latest mock -- where he played GM for every NFL team -- he selected UNC DE Quinton Coples in this spot:

- Tim Kavanagh​

Mel Kiper, Jr.
Arguably the best DE in the draft class

"Coples has dropped a bit in the past month, as I sense that a lot of personnel folks aren't of the belief that he has a really high ceiling. But at No. 12, you're still talking about getting the guy who most saw as the most complete 4-3 defensive end prospect in this draft class for the better part of two years. Coples can play."

 

[BINGO]

NFC West concerns heading toward draft
April, 20, 2012 3:13PM ET
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

The NFC West received only a belated dishonorable mention when Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. listed teams set up poorly for the 2012 NFL draft.

Atlanta, New Orleans, Oakland and the New York Giants made the list. Williamson generally likes where NFC West teams stand, and I would agree, but here are potential concerns for each team in the division:

•St. Louis Rams: The Rams are set up beautifully for the long term after acquiring additional first-round picks in 2013 and 2014. They could use a true difference-maker at wide receiver, a clear No. 1 to stand out from a group with pretty good depth. Drafting a wide receiver at No. 6 would make sense, but what if the Rams aren't comfortable with taking Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd that early? Could they feel pressure to reach? I think they'll have the long term in mind. Coach Jeff Fisher and general manager Les Snead are just starting out. Sure, their team needs playmakers, but time is on their side. Having an additional second-round choice puts the Rams in even stronger position for this draft.

•Seattle Seahawks: The team has no fifth-round pick thanks to the Marshawn Lynch trade. But after signing quarterback Matt Flynn and helping the pass rush with Jason Jones' addition, the Seahawks should face little pressure to draft for need in the first round. The Seahawks would ideally move back from the 12th overall slot, adding picks -- perhaps a fifth-rounder to make up for the one Seattle sent to Buffalo. The team could use a starting middle linebacker. There's good depth at that position in this draft, meaning the Seahawks can come out OK even if Luke Kuechly is not available. Seattle found starting linebacker K.J. Wright in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, which had less depth at the position.

•Arizona Cardinals: Teams prefer to enter a draft with at least one pick in every round and no glaring needs. The Cardinals have no second-round choice. They also have a clear need for an offensive tackle. That combination could put pressure on the Cardinals to select a tackle in the first round. What if there are no tackles worthy of the 13th overall selection? Arizona has done a good job favoring value over need in multiple instances over recent drafts. Taking running back Ryan Williams in the second round last year comes to mind as one example. Ideally, the Cardinals would move back in this draft, pick up a second-round choice and still find a tackle to further solidify their line. They might have to move back into the early 20s to get a second-rounder, unless they were comfortable giving up later-round picks as part of a deal.

•San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have one pick in every round, and no glaring needs. Picking 30th overall isn't very exciting, but neither are the 49ers' needs. They could use an interior offensive lineman (yawn). They could find room for the right receiver, cornerback or safety. Depth for the front seven could be nice. What about running back? Oh, and if tight end Coby Fleener is there, he could make sense too. The 49ers could go in just about any direction, a good thing for a team coming off a 13-3 season. The only complaint is picking so late, but that's a small price to pay for winning.

Any other concerns for these teams? These are the ones that come to mind for me.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Hey Sick, not sure if you posted it and I missed it, but can you post Kiper's recipe for draft success, or whatever that was? Just curious. Thanks.

 

[NinerSickness]

I'm not actually an Insider. If ever post any of their mocks it's because I've found people commenting on each individual pick.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I'm not actually an Insider. If ever post any of their mocks it's because I've found people commenting on each individual pick.

Sorry, I meant Bingo. For some reason I get your names confused.

 

[BINGO]

Rams focusing on WRs?
9:01AM ET
St. Louis Rams

The St. Louis Rams' need for a standout WR extends back some time, and it was the impetus for their acquisition of Brandon Lloyd via trade during the 2011 season. So it's no surprise that many believe the team will address that need by investing their first-round pick (No. 6 overall) on such a player, be it Oklahoma St.'s Justin Blackmon or Notre Dame's Michael Floyd.

Just so that they have their proverbial ducks in a row, the club went on a whirlwind tour of private workouts for three top WR prospects over the weekend, according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Thomas reports that a group of six -- including GM Les Snead, HC Jeff Fisher and OC Brian Schottenheimer -- traveled via private jet for a final look at Blackmon, Floyd and Baylor's Kendall Wright.

Blackmon and Floyd would be considerations at the No. 6 spot, while Wright could be in play if the Rams are able to trade down from that spot; alternatively, he could be their pick as the first selection in the second round (No. 33 overall). Given the team's current makeup, it's possible that they could use the No. 6 and No. 33 picks both on WRs, though this is no longer the franchise that runs the Mike Martz offense, requiring a throng of elite WRs.

- Tim Kavanagh​

 

[BINGO]

Hey Sick, not sure if you posted it and I missed it, but can you post Kiper's recipe for draft success, or whatever that was? Just curious. Thanks.

I'm searching for it Crimson but I don't see a link at all. Where did you see it at? Can you direct me to the link, it will grant me access to the article that you aren't able to view.

 

[BINGO]

Floyd, Reiff on Cardinals' radar
10:38AM ET
Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals have some distinct needs at certain positions on their roster, and they should be able to address one of them with the No. 13 overall pick. But which will it be?

The answer to that question largely depends on which prospects are taken with the first 12 picks. It could be that the players that they really like are off the board by the time their pick rolls around. However, there are certain scenarios where they'll have their choice of either Iowa OT Riley Reiff or Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd, both of whom would make an impact as rookies.

Both Bob McManaman and Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic offered their respective takes on the Reiff vs. Floyd debate this week. Each argument centers on which upgrade will bolster the team's QB play more: better O-line play or another strong target down field.

One or both of the two players may be off the board when Arizona picks, and it's possible that even if they are both still available the Cards will go another direction -- another pass-rusher would be a big help on D. Just another wide-open position for Thursday night.

- Tim Kavanagh​

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I'm searching for it Crimson but I don't see a link at all. Where did you see it at? Can you direct me to the link, it will grant me access to the article that you aren't able to view.

I think this is it:

2012 NFL Draft - Kiper's best possible picks for NFC teams in Rounds 1-3 - ESPN

 

[BINGO]

I think this is it:

2012 NFL Draft - Kiper's best possible picks for NFC teams in Rounds 1-3 - ESPN

Hmmm, I could have sworn I posted this stuff already. I might have posted it in Clyde's NFL Draft thread. But I'll post it here again: