NFC West Ranking

[Crimsoncrew]

Saw this article last week and felt compelled to do my own evaluation:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... t-nfc-west

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Pre-Draft review of the offense.

QB
1. Seahawks
2. 49ers
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

This is probably the most controversial, and I'm sure plenty of people on here will think I'm rating Kap too highly. His weaknesses have been well-documented, including by me, but even if he plays as poorly as he did last year - and I think there's reason to expect improvement - he'd still be second on this list IMO. I put Kolb fourth because he actually struggled in perhaps the most QB-friendly system in the league last year. When healthy, Palmer may be #1, but he's 35 and coming off a serious injury, and he's never been the healthiest guy. Wilson is the #1 at this time, but it wouldn't shock me if that changed this year. He's far from a complete QB.

RB
1. Seahawks
2. 49ers
3. Rams
4. Cardinals

Hawks clearly have the advantage with a top two or three RB in the league right now and good depth behind him. There's a pretty big gap between them and the rest of the division. Giving the Niners #2 is a bit of a projection. If we're going purely with the most established runner, the Rams probably get the #2 spot. But I think Hyde can step into the starting spot and play well, and the Niners have better depth than the Rams right now. Ellington is a great piece for the Cards, arguably the second-best RB in the division, but he can't shoulder the load and they have little behind him. I'm kind of considering FBs here; not fair to consider it as its own category as not all teams really use it.

WR
1. Cardinals
2. 49ers
3. Seahawks
4. Rams

I think Grant Cohn claimed last week that the Niners have the best WR tandem in the division. I disagree. The Cards are the class of the division, they just had shaky QB play for much of the season. Fitz, Floyd, and Brown are a very potent 1-2-3 punch. Niners are clearly #2, with a very solid starting tandem. Boldin shows no signs of easing up, and he's now complemented by a very effective deep threat with some upside. The third spot is a bit muddled, but Ellington has solid potential out of the slot. Hawks are a ways back. Baldwin is a good player, but the rest of these guys are fodder. Kearse has made some plays, but he's FAR from being a well-rounded player. Nothing of note behind that. The Rams are full of question marks. Sure, Britt might turn it around, but that's a stretch at this point. If Quick returns healthy, he's a legit weapon. Austin has disappointed. Bailey and Givens have had their moments, but they lack consistency. Tough to evaluate that group based on QB play last year, and they could surprise, but right now they're last.

TE
1. Seahawks
2. 49ers
3. Rams
4. Cardinals

Graham is clearly the class of the division. Arguably the best receiving TE in the league, though he's not much of a blocker and his toughness could be tested in the NFCW. I'm projecting a bit that Davis turns it around, but I don't think that's such a stretch in a contract year and a division with only one clearly elite TE. Cook is okay, but highly inconsistent. Niklas could develop, but hasn't yet.

OL
1. Cardinals
2. 49ers
3. Hawks
4. Rams

Really struggled with this one. I think the addition of Iupati gives the Cards an edge here, even though playing a statue like Palmer behind him on passing downs could be a recipe for disaster. We've got the best OTs, but Davis is coming off a down year and our interior has some pretty serious questions. Hawks basically just have Okung right now, though Britt should develop into a solid RT. Huge questions at OG and C for them, though there is still good value on the interior OL available in FA. Rams have pretty serious questions across the OL.

Some could accuse me of homerism with these rankings, and that may be true. Nothing conscious, I just know more about the Niners, so I'm willing to project a bit more than I am for the other teams. Still, it's pretty clear the Niners have the talent to field the best offense in the division this next year, and they'll likely need to if they want to compete. Biggest question will undoubtedly be Kap's improvement. Let's hope the stories aren't exaggerated.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

And the defense.

DL
1. Rams
2. Seahawks
3. 49ers
4. Cardinals

I'm including consideration of the primary pass-rusher for 3-4 teams. The clear strength of the division as a whole. Rams almost certainly have the best DL in the league, with great, complementary players across the board. Adding Fairley to a situational role only strengthens that situation. The Hawks also have a great DL, with talent and depth across the board. I'm assuming the Cowboy stays until he doesn't, so the Niners get the edge over the Cards. Both NTs are returning, Dockett replaced McDonald, and our young guys are a year older. There are definitely questions, but it should still be an area of some strength. Cards are very good in this area, too. They lose Dan Williams, which may hurt their run-stopping. And I'm kind of factoring the loss of Acho in here.

LBs
1. Seahawks
2. 49ers
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

The Hawks have very good to great players across the board at LB. A very good unit. The Niners have questions marks surrounding Bowman, and ILB depth, but Bowman could struggle for him and still be a very good LB, while Wilhoite is solid. Some combination of the OLBs should be strong. This ranking for the Cards assumes Daryl Washington returns. This unit could challenge the Niners with the addition of Weatherspoon, but it's probably safe to say it's the Cards' defensive weakness. And the clear weakness of the Rams, where Laurinaitis is very solid if unspectacular, but Ogletree still seems to miss as many tackles as he makes. Dunbar is not a starter IMO.

CBs
1. Seahawks
2. Cardinals
3. Rams
4. 49ers

The Hawks have more questions this year than in the recent past, but still the class of the division, and in the conversation for the league so long as Richard Sherman is playing at this level. I'd love to see the Niners exploit Cary Williams, though. Hate that guy; still pissed he didn't get ejected from the from Super Bowl. Peterson and Co. take second, though they have some additional questions this year as well. Rams take third. EJ Gaines played well for them, and Jenkins is still a bit inconsistent, but a talented player. Niners just have too many questions. Can Brock stay healthy? Who is the second starter? Can Ward tighten up the inside coverage? This position could surprise, but have to rank them last right now.

Ss
1. Seahawks
2. 49ers
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

Hawks again are clearly the class of the division. Both their guys are exceptional, and perfect fits in the system. Only real question is if the injuries from last year have any lingering effects, but no reason to believe that they will so far as I've seen. The Niners will trot out a very good pair as well. I think the play of the safeties last year helped to cover some other weaknesses. Reid has to stay healthy, but otherwise arguably the Niners' strongest spot on D. I must admit, I forgot about Mathieu, and only just looked at the depth chart after doing my ranking. I still think the Cards are third, but it's close. Bucannon looked alright last year, Mathieu has been good when he's on the field, and Rashad Johnson is competent, at least. Rams are clearly last here, though I'll be interested to see what happens with Barron. They don't have a single "good" guy at present, though.

Hawks are clearly the team to beat on D, to the surprise of no one. The Rams are great up front, but do have some positions with major questions. Niners and Cards are kind of in the same boat, with some clear areas of strength, but also plenty of questions. Though even with an epic number of injuries last year, he Niners were top-5 in yards and top-10 in points on D. Losing the two CBs that we lost doesn't seem devastating, even though those guys played well.

Having looked at both sides of the ball, I just can't agree that the Niners have the worst roster in the division. The offense should be right up there for best in the division, none of the teams has a difference-making QB (despite what Hawks fans would have you believe), and only the Hawks are solid across the defense. I really think this team can surprise some people. They'll need the coaching to click, and things to go well for them, but there is still a lot of talent on the roster IMO.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Pretty damn good list and analysis Crimson. Thumbs up from me. Need more of these types of posts around here.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Great analysis Crims. Kolb as QB?

 

[Uhsplit]

Agree with Shark, but I want to see your analysis of the final w/l records of each team.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Saw this article last week and felt compelled to do my own evaluation:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... t-nfc-west

I think that evaluation is a bit off. The front seven will be better than they are saying. The 49ers didn't lose both starting CBs. Tramaine Brock was one of the starting corners. He started the year before and was considered one of the starters last year, before injury. had Brock been healthy, Cox would have probably been a nickel back.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Great analysis Crims. Kolb as QB?

I meant Foles. Not sure where I came up with Kolb.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Agree with Shark, but I want to see your analysis of the final w/l records of each team.

I'm not big on projecting W-L records. Too many variables. Hell, I'm not even terribly comfortable projecting a division ranking. So many variables, coaching not the least. I think the Niners' roster is better than 4th in the division, but I wouldn't be shocked if they finished fourth. A couple tough losses early and the season could definitely snowball out of control...

 

[Uhsplit]

Yeah, your team is in a wierd situation. SF had a solid roster when Harbs arrived but lacked direction and focus.
Tomsula's situation is not too different, QB/RB positions exempted. Will he be a Nolan/Singlertary or can he meld them together? I expect that will be the deciding factor.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

He won't be a Singletary - Singletary had a great roster, but just wasn't close to HC material. Nolan was not a good HC, but his team was also starved for talent. Tomsula's roster isn't what Singletary had, but he'll be a better coach. His roster isn't what Nolan had to deal with, either. Whether he'll be able to get the team to perform at its potential remains to be seen, though. I always think it's risky putting too much stock in one or two late-season games for an interim HC, but Tomsula has been around the organization for a good long time now. Hopefully (for us) the FO was right that he's ready.

 

[Pattersonca65]

I meant Foles. Not sure where I came up with Kolb.

Ok. I like Foles. Thought he played well in Philly although he is probably going to be injury prone.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Ok. I like Foles. Thought he played well in Philly although he is probably going to be injury prone.

I wrestled with QB. Foles at his best in Philly was pretty darn good. But Sanchez looked good in Philly, and Foles didn't in his last iteration. Until he proves he can get it done away from Chip Kelly, I'm not prepared to put Foles above Palmer and Kap. That ranking in particular is very fluid IMO, though.

QB is the clear weakness across the division. I'm not sure the entire division can boast a top-10 guy. And ranking Foles, Palmer, and Kap is tough based on their numbers, skillsets, ages, injury histories, playoff success, etc.

 

[Battlelyon]

Let's face the fact, 49ers lost leadership and coaching. They won't be better in those two areas and that is with coming off a down year.

Foles is a questionable, could be good or bad. The real Foles will show up this year.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Let's face the fact, 49ers lost leadership and coaching. They won't be better in those two areas and that is with coming off a down year.

Foles is a questionable, could be good or bad. The real Foles will show up this year.

Not quite true. The defensive coaching that left was good, the offensive coaching that left was not good. Lost some player leadership, but those players are either in decline or were not productive last year due to injury.

 

[Battlelyon]

A good coach like Harbaugh is not easily replaceable, you were nothing before him.

 

[Pattersonca65]

A good coach like Harbaugh is not easily replaceable, you were nothing before him.

That is not true either. The 49ers had a long run, team of the 1980s and won super bowls up through 1994. Nothing lasts forever and the team had gone through bad times with changes in mgmt. I like Harbaugh and ultimately would have liked to have seen him stay provided he addressed the issues on offense. Still, Harbaugh is an offensive coach and the offense had struggled and underperformed last year. Harbaugh also stubbornly failed to address issues on offense that plagued the team since he arrived in SF. Harbaugh is an offensive coach, but this team for the most part was carried by its defense.

 

[Battlelyon]

I am talking about in the 0s decade, before he came the last time the Niners had a winning season was 2002 a decade before he got there.

 

[Pattersonca65]

I am talking about in the 0s decade, before he came the last time the Niners had a winning season was 2002 a decade before he got there.

That is what I meant. Teams can through a bad patch. The team started getting on track when Scot McCloughan become GM and started drafting good players and this continued under Baalke. Had a awful coach under Singletary but it isn't as if everything was a mess when Harabaugh took over. He was given a talented roster to work with. Not as if another coach couldn't have won with that roster.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I didn't realize until just now that Jeremy Lane also tore his ACL when he broke his arm. Brutal for him. Tough to see him playing at a high level next year, if at all. Honestly, that tackle may have been Edelman's biggest play of the game. Seattle really struggled against the pass (for them, at least) after that.

I don't think that knowledge alters my division rankings. Sherman is still the best corner in the division IMO, even though he always plays the left side. And Cary Williams is a serviceable starter, at least. But they've got pretty big questions behind those two. The Hawks deserve even more benefit of the doubt in the area of grooming CBs than the Niners do, though.