NFC Playoff Picture 12/19/2016

[Great Dayne]

If the season ended today this is how the NFC playoffs would look like.
First Round Byes:
#1 seed Cowboys
#2 seed Hawks

Wildcard teams:
#3 seed Atlanta
#4 Seed Lions
#5 seed Giants
#6 seed Packers

ESPN is wrong since TB is not the #6 seed now because GB wins the tie breaker over TB since they have a better strength of victory.

Wild Card games

Atlanta vs Packers
Lions vs Giants

The reality is ATL, Dal, GB, and Hawks will win out. Detroit will lose out. I think TB will snag the last playoff spot with an easier final two games than the Skins. If it plays out the way it should then the playoff picture will be the same 1, 2, and 3 seeds in Dal, Hawks, and Atlanta. Packers would be the #4 seed, Giants at #5 and TB at #6.

Packers vs Giants

Atlanta vs Tampa Bay

 

[Brees#1]

Bucs are not winning against NO twice in three weeks. 9-7 for them. Washington beats giants they go 9-6-1. I think lions win in Dallas because TB almost did and Detroit is better.

If Atl wins out
Atl vs Det
GB vs NY

If Atlanta loses out
GB vs Det
TB/Atl vs NY(depends what happens with Car/TB)

If GB loses at Detroit and Atlanta wins out
Atl vs Was
Det vs NY

If GB loses at Detroit and Atlanta loses out
Det vs Was
TB/Atl vs NY

I believe GB wins out though and Atlanta's a coin flip.

 

[Great Dayne]

Bucs are not winning against NO twice in three weeks. 9-7 for them. Washington beats giants they go 9-6-1. I think lions win in Dallas because TB almost did and Detroit is better.

If Atl wins out
Atl vs Det
GB vs NY

If Atlanta loses out
GB vs Det
TB/Atl vs NY(depends what happens with Car/TB)

If GB loses at Detroit and Atlanta wins out
Atl vs Was
Det vs NY

If GB loses at Detroit and Atlanta loses out
Det vs Was
TB/Atl vs NY

I believe GB wins out though and Atlanta's a coin flip.

Pack can still win the division even if they lose to Detroit if Detroit loses to Dallas which will happen. Detroit is terrible and are the biggest frauds in the NFL. They haven't beaten a single legit playoff team and barely beat crappy teams.

TB could lose to NO but they have nothing to play for anymore and Skins will lose to G-men because their defense is just horrible.

 

[fordman84]

If the season ended today this is how the NFC playoffs would look like.
First Round Byes:
#1 seed Cowboys
#2 seed Hawks

Wildcard teams:
#3 seed Atlanta
#4 Seed Lions
#5 seed Giants
#6 seed Packers

ESPN is wrong since TB is not the #6 seed now because GB wins the tie breaker over TB since they have a better strength of victory.

Wild Card games

Atlanta vs Packers
Lions vs Giants

The reality is ATL, Dal, GB, and Hawks will win out. Detroit will lose out. I think TB will snag the last playoff spot with an easier final two games than the Skins. If it plays out the way it should then the playoff picture will be the same 1, 2, and 3 seeds in Dal, Hawks, and Atlanta. Packers would be the #4 seed, Giants at #5 and TB at #6.

Packers vs Giants

Atlanta vs Tampa Bay

Hope you are right. Need one win for Dallas or one loss from NYG. Really would suck to have our season and then end up crapping it away and getting the #5 seed.

 

[molsaniceman]

Pack can still win the division even if they lose to Detroit if Detroit loses to Dallas which will happen. Detroit is terrible and are the biggest frauds in the NFL. They haven't beaten a single legit playoff team and barely beat crappy teams.

TB could lose to NO but they have nothing to play for anymore and Skins will lose to G-men because their defense is just horrible.

Wrong

 

[rmilia1]

Pack can still win the division even if they lose to Detroit if Detroit loses to Dallas which will happen. Detroit is terrible and are the biggest frauds in the NFL. They haven't beaten a single legit playoff team and barely beat crappy teams.

TB could lose to NO but they have nothing to play for anymore and Skins will lose to G-men because their defense is just horrible.

If Detroit beats GB they'll have 10 wins. GB would have 9

 

[rmilia1]

Also I think ESPN has it right right now. Both GB and TB have 6-4 NFC records, they don't have enough common opponents for that to be used so strength of victory is next. Tampa wins come over teams that are a combined 48-63-1 while Green Bays come over teams that are 47-64-1. So unless SoV is something other than that I'd say CBS has it wrong and ESPN is correct

 

[JMR]

Unless GB loses and Det wins this week, the week 17 matchup will determine who goes to the playoffs as the div champ and who stays home. Some good NFCS matchups to decide that one too.

 

[Great Dayne]

If Detroit beats GB they'll have 10 wins. GB would have 9

Correct Pack only win if they win out.

 

[Great Dayne]

Also I think ESPN has it right right now. Both GB and TB have 6-4 NFC records, they don't have enough common opponents for that to be used so strength of victory is next. Tampa wins come over teams that are a combined 48-63-1 while Green Bays come over teams that are 47-64-1. So unless SoV is something other than that I'd say CBS has it wrong and ESPN is correct

NFL.com has the Pack in front as well.

NFL Playoff Picture - NFL.com

 

[LambeauLegs]

Also I think ESPN has it right right now. Both GB and TB have 6-4 NFC records, they don't have enough common opponents for that to be used so strength of victory is next. Tampa wins come over teams that are a combined 48-63-1 while Green Bays come over teams that are 47-64-1. So unless SoV is something other than that I'd say CBS has it wrong and ESPN is correct

Do you think the actual NFL website would have it correct?

 

[LambeauLegs]

Everything is tied on the tie breaker until #4. I just need to see a definition on how they detemine strength of victory. Does that mean by how many points you beat your opponent by?


NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

 

[rmilia1]

NFL.com has the Pack in front as well.

NFL Playoff Picture - NFL.com

That's weird because Tampa definitely has the slim edge in opponents record in wins. I wonder what the hell strength of victory is then? Lol

 

[rmilia1]

Do you think the actual NFL website would have it correct?

I'd assume but then what is strength of victory? Because it's not what it sounds like then

 

[rmilia1]

Everything is tied on the tie breaker until #4. I just need to see a definition on how they detemine strength of victory. Does that mean by how many points you beat your opponent by?


NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

I wouldn't think it's points because they use that one later in the tiebreaker procedure. I just assumed it was the combined record of the teams you beat in which case Tampa is ahead.

 

[molsaniceman]

Also I think ESPN has it right right now. Both GB and TB have 6-4 NFC records, they don't have enough common opponents for that to be used so strength of victory is next. Tampa wins come over teams that are a combined 48-63-1 while Green Bays come over teams that are 47-64-1. So unless SoV is something other than that I'd say CBS has it wrong and ESPN is correct

maybe this will help

For two teams

1. Head-to-head results. Example: If the Ravens and Steelers have the same record, Baltimore would lead the division thanks to an earlier victory over Pittsburgh.
2. Best win percentage in games played within the division. Example: The Falcons and Buccaneers are 1-1 head to head, but if Atlanta wins out against Carolina and New Orleans and Tampa Bay slips up down the stretch, the Falcons would win the NFC South thanks to the superior record against division foes.
3. Best win percentage in common games. Example: The Falcons and Buccaneers play 12 games against 10 common opponents. Whoever has the best record in that stretch would win the tiebreaker.
4. Best win percentage in games played within the conference. Just like No. 2, but across a 16-team conference instead of a four-team division.
5. Strength of victory. This is the composite win percentage of the opponents a team has beaten over the course of the regular season. Example: By Week 13, Oakland had beaten 10 teams with a combined record of 68-76, giving the Raiders a .472 strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule. The composite win percentage of all the opponents a team has on its schedule, regardless of whether the team in the tiebreaker has beaten these opponents. Example: Through 13 weeks, the Patriots’ opponents went a combined 59-85, giving them a .409 strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking in the conference in points scored and points allowed. Lowest score wins, so if your team is No. 1 in scoring and No. 1 in defense, it’d be untouchable in this metric.
8. Best combined ranking across the NFL in points scored and points allowed. Just like No. 7, but expanded to the entire league.
9. Best net points in common games. Go back to No. 3, and then figure out which of the two teams in the tiebreaker won by more points in those games. This is where sportsmanship starts to fly out the window.
10. Best net points in all games. Example: The Titans and Texans have the same record, but Tennessee would win this tiebreaker because it has outscored all opponents this season by a net 12 points — considerably more than Houston’s -50.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games. (Touchdowns scored) - (touchdowns allowed) over the course of the season.
12. Flip a coin. The great equalizer

lots to be decided what we know for sure

pats div winner 1st rd bye
seattle div winner
dallas is in
oakland is in

 

[Great Dayne]

That's weird because Tampa definitely has the slim edge in opponents record in wins. I wonder what the hell strength of victory is then? Lol

I thought it was point differential initially, but I'm seeing conflicting information and there is no detailed description on what strength of victory is.

 

[rmilia1]

maybe this will help

For two teams

1. Head-to-head results. Example: If the Ravens and Steelers have the same record, Baltimore would lead the division thanks to an earlier victory over Pittsburgh.
2. Best win percentage in games played within the division. Example: The Falcons and Buccaneers are 1-1 head to head, but if Atlanta wins out against Carolina and New Orleans and Tampa Bay slips up down the stretch, the Falcons would win the NFC South thanks to the superior record against division foes.
3. Best win percentage in common games. Example: The Falcons and Buccaneers play 12 games against 10 common opponents. Whoever has the best record in that stretch would win the tiebreaker.
4. Best win percentage in games played within the conference. Just like No. 2, but across a 16-team conference instead of a four-team division.
5. Strength of victory. This is the composite win percentage of the opponents a team has beaten over the course of the regular season. Example: By Week 13, Oakland had beaten 10 teams with a combined record of 68-76, giving the Raiders a .472 strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule. The composite win percentage of all the opponents a team has on its schedule, regardless of whether the team in the tiebreaker has beaten these opponents. Example: Through 13 weeks, the Patriots’ opponents went a combined 59-85, giving them a .409 strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking in the conference in points scored and points allowed. Lowest score wins, so if your team is No. 1 in scoring and No. 1 in defense, it’d be untouchable in this metric.
8. Best combined ranking across the NFL in points scored and points allowed. Just like No. 7, but expanded to the entire league.
9. Best net points in common games. Go back to No. 3, and then figure out which of the two teams in the tiebreaker won by more points in those games. This is where sportsmanship starts to fly out the window.
10. Best net points in all games. Example: The Titans and Texans have the same record, but Tennessee would win this tiebreaker because it has outscored all opponents this season by a net 12 points — considerably more than Houston’s -50.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games. (Touchdowns scored) - (touchdowns allowed) over the course of the season.
12. Flip a coin. The great equalizer

lots to be decided what we know for sure

pats div winner 1st rd bye
seattle div winner
dallas is in
oakland is in

Composite win % the team has beat over the course of the season. Sorry Pack fans. It's Tampa right now. By a whole 1 game. No clue why NFL.com is wrong but it is

 

[Great Dayne]

Composite win % the team has beat over the course of the season. Sorry Pack fans. It's Tampa right now. By a whole 1 game. No clue why NFL.com is wrong but it is

Didn't update the Carolina win?

 

[Great Dayne]

Websites are saying SOV is tied between TB and GB so GB leads in SOS which gives them the #6 seed at this time.