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The upcoming draft is among the most risky ones in the NBA's history. There can be low picks than can prove to be "hidden diamonds" and then (projected) high picks that may well prove mediocre, or poor choices.
After the trade dreadline, the rosters of the teams which will be in the postseason are known, but so are the expiring contracts and needs in the rosters... Here is my predictions (random order)
The Grizzlies have no pick this season, but still have veterans to sell, a young roster that is very talented and deep, excellent financials and have added Winslow.
My guess is that they'll work to accelerate the roster's future upside and will try to get rid of the rest out of the veterans they have for youngsters in which other teams don't trust.
The Heat: will have a low pick and many expiring contracts of veterans, my guess is that they will cash their pick and then will add more veterans on 1-year deals keeping an eye on if Giannis signs with the Bucks by next October and then move from there...
The Raptors have now resigned Lowery one an 1-year extension, but not Van Vleet, Ibaka and Gasol (yet), but have the younger in the roster locked from before... They have a low 1st which I think they'll pick the best they can and then I believe they'll resign Van Vleet and Ibaka but not Gasol and fill the roster with more expirings, again, keeping an eye on whether Giannis signs next Oct. and then move from there...
The Lakers: have a (very) low 1st and I think they'll pick rather well given their tradition in successful scouting.
After that, it will all depend on this year's postseason, if they make it to the WCF, my guess is that they'll extend both Davis and Kuzma and go into the lux tax and then fill the rest of the roster with more vets at min. contracts. A possible trade that could bring back something valuable but not clutch, is to combine Kuzma with Green and move them both, but this can't be a possible case until the 2021 mid-season, unless if it happens during the draft night combined with Kuzma agreement on a "sign and trade" along with the pick.
If there is a 2nd round exit during the playoffs though, what happens next, is totally unpredictable.
The Bucks: Whatever the Bucks moves will be, will have to do with respect to the 21-22 season, where the Bucks have only the contracts of their 2nd to 6th players (Middleton, Bledsoe, Hill, BroLo and Divincenzo) on their books and wait for Giannis to ink the paper, so that today's core remains intact. Given that Giannis inks, they'll either pick or use the pick to make an impactful trade that will bring the 7th addition to the 21/22 roster a year earlier. For next season the Bucks will use the remaining of the cap space, will keep Williams for another season and will most probably refuse to exercise Ilyasova's T.O. in order to add 7M more to the 11M of cash they can use before the lux tax.
If Giannis doesn't sign, nothing will change on the above policy because they'll still have another season before he hits free agency... They may even have agreed with Giannis already, but get Giannis not to resign, so that they can keep the competition confused and on alert.
The Clippers: Have no pick, but do have lots of cap space to use and the exceptions intact, they therefore will hit hard into what there is in the FA market.
The Sixers: No picks + no cap space = trouble... If they make it to the ECF this season, they'll most probably insist for another season, if they don't ... fuck all...
The Jazz: Have a low 1st and good cap space, they're good and will improve.
The Celtics: Hmmm... Not one, not two, but three 1st picks! My guess is that they'll try to use the lower picks and climb a bit further up to the draft ladder, or trade one or two of the picks for assets but use the better one to draft a rookie. They're in a better spot than anybody else this summer.
Use the two lower picks and add Drummond perhaps?
The Thunder: Two mid-low picks and Gallo expiring... My guess is they'll resign Gallo to a lesser salary and use the picks to draft two wings. Probably they'll trade Schroeder and add more depth next to the picks and Alexander... They're good.
The Mavericks: A mid-low 1st and lots of cap space... they'll draft the best they can and add 1-year deals keeping an eye on Giannis...
The Pacers: No picks and many expirings next season... They'll do little in details and concentrate to have Olandipo back in shape... After that they'll keep and eye on Giannis and decide how they proceed during the mid-season accordingly.
The Rockets: No picks... Perhaps some more alchemist experiments are in due... Move the team in Paris and built an arena next to the tower perhaps?
The Nuggets: A low 1st they'll draft and then perhaps some "normal" moves for "normal" role players... Just "Normal Nuggets"...
The Nets: A mid-low 1st they will draft, resign Harris and go into the tax and "that's all folks"... K.D returns and see from there...
The Magic: Will have a 1st at No.15... They hired Hammond for GM to the Magic, so that he does some Magic and picks... Giannis once more!
After the trade dreadline, the rosters of the teams which will be in the postseason are known, but so are the expiring contracts and needs in the rosters... Here is my predictions (random order)
The Grizzlies have no pick this season, but still have veterans to sell, a young roster that is very talented and deep, excellent financials and have added Winslow.
My guess is that they'll work to accelerate the roster's future upside and will try to get rid of the rest out of the veterans they have for youngsters in which other teams don't trust.
The Heat: will have a low pick and many expiring contracts of veterans, my guess is that they will cash their pick and then will add more veterans on 1-year deals keeping an eye on if Giannis signs with the Bucks by next October and then move from there...
The Raptors have now resigned Lowery one an 1-year extension, but not Van Vleet, Ibaka and Gasol (yet), but have the younger in the roster locked from before... They have a low 1st which I think they'll pick the best they can and then I believe they'll resign Van Vleet and Ibaka but not Gasol and fill the roster with more expirings, again, keeping an eye on whether Giannis signs next Oct. and then move from there...
The Lakers: have a (very) low 1st and I think they'll pick rather well given their tradition in successful scouting.
After that, it will all depend on this year's postseason, if they make it to the WCF, my guess is that they'll extend both Davis and Kuzma and go into the lux tax and then fill the rest of the roster with more vets at min. contracts. A possible trade that could bring back something valuable but not clutch, is to combine Kuzma with Green and move them both, but this can't be a possible case until the 2021 mid-season, unless if it happens during the draft night combined with Kuzma agreement on a "sign and trade" along with the pick.
If there is a 2nd round exit during the playoffs though, what happens next, is totally unpredictable.
The Bucks: Whatever the Bucks moves will be, will have to do with respect to the 21-22 season, where the Bucks have only the contracts of their 2nd to 6th players (Middleton, Bledsoe, Hill, BroLo and Divincenzo) on their books and wait for Giannis to ink the paper, so that today's core remains intact. Given that Giannis inks, they'll either pick or use the pick to make an impactful trade that will bring the 7th addition to the 21/22 roster a year earlier. For next season the Bucks will use the remaining of the cap space, will keep Williams for another season and will most probably refuse to exercise Ilyasova's T.O. in order to add 7M more to the 11M of cash they can use before the lux tax.
If Giannis doesn't sign, nothing will change on the above policy because they'll still have another season before he hits free agency... They may even have agreed with Giannis already, but get Giannis not to resign, so that they can keep the competition confused and on alert.
The Clippers: Have no pick, but do have lots of cap space to use and the exceptions intact, they therefore will hit hard into what there is in the FA market.
The Sixers: No picks + no cap space = trouble... If they make it to the ECF this season, they'll most probably insist for another season, if they don't ... fuck all...
The Jazz: Have a low 1st and good cap space, they're good and will improve.
The Celtics: Hmmm... Not one, not two, but three 1st picks! My guess is that they'll try to use the lower picks and climb a bit further up to the draft ladder, or trade one or two of the picks for assets but use the better one to draft a rookie. They're in a better spot than anybody else this summer.
Use the two lower picks and add Drummond perhaps?
The Thunder: Two mid-low picks and Gallo expiring... My guess is they'll resign Gallo to a lesser salary and use the picks to draft two wings. Probably they'll trade Schroeder and add more depth next to the picks and Alexander... They're good.
The Mavericks: A mid-low 1st and lots of cap space... they'll draft the best they can and add 1-year deals keeping an eye on Giannis...
The Pacers: No picks and many expirings next season... They'll do little in details and concentrate to have Olandipo back in shape... After that they'll keep and eye on Giannis and decide how they proceed during the mid-season accordingly.
The Rockets: No picks... Perhaps some more alchemist experiments are in due... Move the team in Paris and built an arena next to the tower perhaps?
The Nuggets: A low 1st they'll draft and then perhaps some "normal" moves for "normal" role players... Just "Normal Nuggets"...
The Nets: A mid-low 1st they will draft, resign Harris and go into the tax and "that's all folks"... K.D returns and see from there...
The Magic: Will have a 1st at No.15... They hired Hammond for GM to the Magic, so that he does some Magic and picks... Giannis once more!
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