NBA OFF TOPIC THREAD

[tlance]

he obviously should not talk about baseball.

1. The "Guardians" have 2 of the top 20 (if not higher) players in baseball in Bieber and Jose.

2. They have a top 5 closer in Clause. Before Karinchak fell apart- he was one of the best setup men in baseball. They just need to get him more consistent--- if he can do for a season what he did for half of last year and the previous year- you have arguably the best 1-2 combo in any bullpen

3. Quintrell had a 2.89 era last year in 150 innings after being jerked around the bullpen- once he became a ful ltime starter he was one of the best pitchers in the AL. He will regress to the mean somewhat- but Plesac will in a positive direction as well.

4. Civale is easily a top notch #3 starter- if not a #2. His season was also derailed by injuries.

5. McKenzie is the wild card- he has legit ace stuff if he gets consistent- and he started getting consistent the last 2 months of the season. A reason Keith LAw had him as I think the 9th best prospect in baseball coming into the year.

They of course need hitting. They have 3 above average hitters- Jose of course, Franmil, and Rosario was pretty good. They need hitting- but they have some of that on the way in the minors and SHOULD (SHOULD) spend some money to fill a hole or two.

Considering all the injuries last year- going 80-82 was a small miracle. Just having Bieber, Civale, Plesac healthy would have gotten them to AT LEAST 87 wins.

If they can just upgrade the offense a little bit- and getting Karinchak right, they will contend for a WC. White Sox a lot of people think are one of the top 3 rosters in baseball- so division might be tough.

I can talk baseball.

That is a lot of “iffs” that aren’t going to happen.

Steamer is one of the most trusted projection systems out there that uses advanced stats to predict future player performance. It is always on the conservative side, but…

It has the following ERAs projected for your boys;

-Quantrill: 4.76- he looks like a solid SP who can overachieve buy limiting hard contact, but 7.28K/9 and 2.57 K/BB are more meh than they are high end starter numbers.

If his command stays sharp (not a given) and he can continue to limit hitters to well below average BABIP he can continue to post solid numbers. But steamer has him projected at 4.76 because the skills he demonstrated last year don’t resemble that of a future ace.

He has draft pedigree, so it is possible he takes another step forward, but not something you should be betting on.

-Civale: 4.61- Civale has elite command with just over 2 BB/9, but he gives up an awful lot of hard contact and his K rate was not very impressive.

He has been tweaking his pitch mix over the last year, so maybe he reinvents himself and can improve, but the projection systems currently see him as a back end of rotation guy because he doesn’t miss enough bats and has shown a proclivity to give up the long ball.

-McKenzie: McKenzie clearly has the stuff to be an ace. Unlike the previous 2 he has some real swing and miss stuff and was recently a highly touted prospect.

But, he also really struggled with a 4.35 BB/9 last season and as a fly ball pitcher he has also struggled with the long ball (1.58 and 1.62 HR/9 over his 1st two MLB seasons).

Since he did not have issues with either walks or HRs in the minors, this is a guy who could take a massive leap forward. But he isn’t there yet so you shouldn’t be projecting him there just yet.

Plesac: he had 8 really great starts in 2020. Aside from that run which looks pretty flukey, he is a pitch to contact low end starter.

Clase and Karinchak are as talented as any young RP duo in baseball and Bieber is a proven ace. But the reality is that saying this is a “contender quality pitching staff” is cherry picking the absolute best case scenario and not accounting for any down side at all.

The reality is that beyond Bieber, the rotation has more questions than answers. And the penny pinching Guardians are more likely to trade your 2 studs (Ramirez and Bieber) than they are to go to other way and make moves to try and win. And they SHOULD a trade those 2 to restock and speed up the rebuild.

You asked who has a better rotation in the AL?

According to steamer ERA and IP projections which are completely based on the numbers, these teams all do:

Toronto
Chicago
Tampa Bay
Yankees
Astros
Oakland

And then there are quite a few more like the Angels and Mariners who are also relying on young, unproven guys at the back end who look pretty similar to what Cleveland has.

And yeah, I call you guys homers because you take the rosiest possible outlook and project it as a given.

Could Cleveland have one of the best rotations in the AL? It isn’t impossible, but it damn sure ain’t something you should be claiming today. The projection systems don’t think you have a “contender caliber pitching staff”.

So I am going to go with that.

 

[tlance]

This all started with me lamenting the fact our owner lacks a will to win (our payroll was around what the Mets will pay their new ace (or maybe their #2?). Pointed out if we only spent league average we could contend as we already had a pitching staff that could be a contender with some hitting....and raising payroll to league average would allow us to bring in at least 3-4 stud hitters (with money to spare).

Maybe I am guilty of getting caught up in the language.

If “contender caliber” to you means good enough to eek into the playoffs in a very weak division when coupled with a hitting boost, then maybe.

To me that comment means they have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball.

And that just isn’t the case. Certainly not yet anyway.

Cleveland was 18th in team ERA last season. Bieber surely boosts that a little.

But really they are somewhere near league average in terms of overall pitching outlook. Maybe slightly above.

That to me is not “contender quality”.

 

[bksballer89]

 

[fightinfunbags]

@fightinfunbags

I’m pumped. If ND is going to break through it’s going to come with a guy like this that has energy and charisma and can recruit.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Freeman turned down 3 million
Rees turned down 2 million
Elston is staying and so is Balis and Mickens. ND came out of this maybe in better shape. They went from a guy that they knew couldn’t climb the mountain at ND to a guy who possibly could because of his ability to recruit.

 

[Black Adam]

I’m pumped. If ND is going to break through it’s going to come with a guy like this that has energy and charisma and can recruit.

Definitely important factors for building a college program...

 

[Shanemansj13]

Did you mean may NOT be due to the strike? I hope they lock them out long enough to straighten out the sport. Cap would be nice, but will never happen. I'd rather see a floor.

Floor PLEEEASE! Indians will have to spend this offseason for once

 

[thunderc]

OU seems to be down to 4. Lanning, Fickel, Campbell and Venables. But who knows.

 

[trojanfan12]

OU seems to be down to 4. Lanning, Fickel, Campbell and Venables. But who knows.

Do you have a preference?

 

[thunderc]

Do you have a preference?

Lanning or Venables, we have to find some toughness going into the sec. It wasn’t coming from Riley.

 

[trojanfan12]

Lanning or Venables, we have to find some toughness going into the sec. It wasn’t coming from Riley.

Don't know much about Lanning. Venables seems good and he's defense first which will help going into the SEC. He's also a familiar face which should calm everybody down and save some of the recruiting classes.

My one concern with Riley is that Oklahoma wasn't exactly known for defense with him and our defense the past few years makes Oklahoma's defense look like the '85 Bears. lol

I'm hoping that's more about a lack of emphasis on defense in recruiting rather than about the DC he brought with him. Either way though, it looks like he'll still be an upgrade over Pendergast or Orlando.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I can talk baseball.

That is a lot of “iffs” that aren’t going to happen.

Steamer is one of the most trusted projection systems out there that uses advanced stats to predict future player performance. It is always on the conservative side, but…

It has the following ERAs projected for your boys;

-Quantrill: 4.76- he looks like a solid SP who can overachieve buy limiting hard contact, but 7.28K/9 and 2.57 K/BB are more meh than they are high end starter numbers.

If his command stays sharp (not a given) and he can continue to limit hitters to well below average BABIP he can continue to post solid numbers. But steamer has him projected at 4.76 because the skills he demonstrated last year don’t resemble that of a future ace.

He has draft pedigree, so it is possible he takes another step forward, but not something you should be betting on.

-Civale: 4.61- Civale has elite command with just over 2 BB/9, but he gives up an awful lot of hard contact and his K rate was not very impressive.

He has been tweaking his pitch mix over the last year, so maybe he reinvents himself and can improve, but the projection systems currently see him as a back end of rotation guy because he doesn’t miss enough bats and has shown a proclivity to give up the long ball.

-McKenzie: McKenzie clearly has the stuff to be an ace. Unlike the previous 2 he has some real swing and miss stuff and was recently a highly touted prospect.

But, he also really struggled with a 4.35 BB/9 last season and as a fly ball pitcher he has also struggled with the long ball (1.58 and 1.62 HR/9 over his 1st two MLB seasons).

Since he did not have issues with either walks or HRs in the minors, this is a guy who could take a massive leap forward. But he isn’t there yet so you shouldn’t be projecting him there just yet.

Plesac: he had 8 really great starts in 2020. Aside from that run which looks pretty flukey, he is a pitch to contact low end starter.

Clase and Karinchak are as talented as any young RP duo in baseball and Bieber is a proven ace. But the reality is that saying this is a “contender quality pitching staff” is cherry picking the absolute best case scenario and not accounting for any down side at all.

The reality is that beyond Bieber, the rotation has more questions than answers. And the penny pinching Guardians are more likely to trade your 2 studs (Ramirez and Bieber) than they are to go to other way and make moves to try and win. And they SHOULD a trade those 2 to restock and speed up the rebuild.

You asked who has a better rotation in the AL?

According to steamer ERA and IP projections which are completely based on the numbers, these teams all do:

Toronto
Chicago
Tampa Bay
Yankees
Astros
Oakland

And then there are quite a few more like the Angels and Mariners who are also relying on young, unproven guys at the back end who look pretty similar to what Cleveland has.

And yeah, I call you guys homers because you take the rosiest possible outlook and project it as a given.

Could Cleveland have one of the best rotations in the AL? It isn’t impossible, but it damn sure ain’t something you should be claiming today. The projection systems don’t think you have a “contender caliber pitching staff”.

So I am going to go with that.

this is another post I will have bookmarked.

Yankees? lol they have one guy.

Toronto???? Berrios and Gausman and what?

Tampa is kind of their own thing and dont really rely on starters- and Glasnow is their best and is ALWAYS injured.

Astros I can at least see an argument for

Oakland no way- and not only that but they will probably be trading a guy or two.

I will guarantee you that Quintrell and Civale have sub 4.00 era's.

 

[Heatles84]

And yet, you still have not said what the "good way to leave'' is.

It seems to me, that everyone is listening just fine. You're just looking at things emotionally.

This is the new way of CFB. People have to accept it. OU is in the low right now with how Riley left; USC is at the high.

There's really no good way to leave. Can you imagine if halfway through the year, Riley announced that he was interviewing with and was going to accept a job with USC at the end of the season? I guarantee you it would be bad, and Riley would be in a very uncomfortable situation.

 

[Heatles84]

lol

It's basically saying why does any Fortune 500 company need a CEO?

 

[thunderc]

Don't know much about Lanning. Venables seems good and he's defense first which will help going into the SEC. He's also a familiar face which should calm everybody down and save some of the recruiting classes.

My one concern with Riley is that Oklahoma wasn't exactly known for defense with him and our defense the past few years makes Oklahoma's defense look like the '85 Bears. lol

I'm hoping that's more about a lack of emphasis on defense in recruiting rather than about the DC he brought with him. Either way though, it looks like he'll still be an upgrade over Pendergast or Orlando.

My only issue with Venables is why hasn’t he took on a head coaching gig before? Word is he has interviewed quite a bit and it hasn’t worked out. Word is they are trying to work a package deal and bring Libby from Ole Miss in as the OC at the same time. A lot has came out around here about Riley not allowing a lot of hitting and tackling in practice. That is very concerning to me in terms of moving to the SEC, OU teams have just not been tough enough.

 

[Heatles84]

Where is the lie?

You think Bama is the same without Saban? The HC is a pretty critical component.

 

[Heatles84]

@fightinfunbags

I don't see that working out too well for Notre Dame. This guy 2 years ago was the DC for Cincinnati. This is a bit of a letdown of a hire, IMO.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Don't know much about Lanning. Venables seems good and he's defense first which will help going into the SEC. He's also a familiar face which should calm everybody down and save some of the recruiting classes.

My one concern with Riley is that Oklahoma wasn't exactly known for defense with him and our defense the past few years makes Oklahoma's defense look like the '85 Bears. lol

I'm hoping that's more about a lack of emphasis on defense in recruiting rather than about the DC he brought with him. Either way though, it looks like he'll still be an upgrade over Pendergast or Orlando.

For me, defense is a Jimmy’s and Joes things more than scheme.

 

[fightinfunbags]

I don't see that working out too well for Notre Dame. This guy 2 years ago was the DC for Cincinnati. This is a bit of a letdown of a hire, IMO.

What do you know about the candidate?

 

[Heatles84]

I’m pumped. If ND is going to break through it’s going to come with a guy like this that has energy and charisma and can recruit.

Problem is, you have a guy that's learning how to be a HC on the fly at a blue blood program at Notre Dame. Starting your first HC gig right after Brian Kelly is not going to be ideal, at all. We're going through that with Manny Diaz at the moment, and after 3 years is likely on his way out. It's very rare that a guy who's first HC job is at a Power 5 program and that it works out.