NBA OFF TOPIC THREAD

[thunderc]

Interesting. Could be that the right opportunity just hasn't presented itself. It could also be that he's a defense first coach in an era where everyone wants an exciting "space age" offense because for casual fans the offense dropping 30+ on someone is more exciting that the defense holding the opponent to 10 points.

Could also be that other schools didn't think he was head coaching material. Imo, it seems like the right hire for the Sooners, especially going into the SEC.

If it goes this route, or if we hire Lanning it is a must to announce a young known OC at the same time. Caleb Williams and others are going to play in the bowl game and will be watching what happens.

 

[trojanfan12]

I think some of you guys are underrating how difficult it is to be a HC at a Power 5 program, and the overall impact.

Yeah, these days, a head coach is more CEO than actual coach. I've always said that the reason USC was so good under Pete Carroll had very little to do with how good he was at coaching.

He was a very good evaluator of coaching talent and was smart enough to stick to the side of the ball that he knew (defense) and stayed out of the way of his offensive coaches. He was also a good "closer"...so any recruits that were on the fence...would almost always end up at USC after they talked to Pete.

 

[Heatles84]

Yeah, these days, a head coach is more CEO than actual coach. I've always said that the reason USC was so good under Pete Carroll had very little to do with how good he was at coaching.

He was a very good evaluator of coaching talent and was smart enough to stick to the side of the ball that he knew (defense) and stayed out of the way of his offensive coaches. He was also a good "closer"...so any recruits that were on the fence...would almost always end up at USC after they talked to Pete.

Yup, gone are the days that a HC is so deeply involved on one side of the ball. With the time commitments a HC has, it's nearly impossible to be deep in the weeds and you have to be able to recognize the right assistants on both sides of the ball.

 

[Heatles84]

If it goes this route, or if we hire Lanning it is a must to announce a young known OC at the same time. Caleb Williams and others are going to play in the bowl game and will be watching what happens.

If you're worried about losing Caleb Williams, I wouldn't, at least from the outside perspective. You obviously following OU closer than I do and may know better, but this is just my opinion. Personally, since I've followed football, I've never seen OU truly be mediocre. Ultimately, I still think as a program you'll be fine; including navigating through the SEC.

 

[Shanemansj13]

But Freeman isn’t Manny Diaz. No offense but that guy just isn’t a good coach.
Dabo’s first gig was Clemson
Smart’s first gig was Georgia
Day’s first gig was OSU
Riley’s first gig was Oklahoma

If you can coach, you can coach. In 10 months time Freeman has already had a huge impact on recruiting. Worst case scenario is ND needs to move on in 3 years with a talented roster to sell to another candidate. ND is a unique job and when you have a fit who gets it there, I think it’s worth taking the chance. Who do you think should have been the guy?

Who knows honestly but all those guys were offensive minds minus Smart. ND must have a lot of faith in him but we will likely know in year one if he has the tools to be the head coach or not. It's usually either a hit or miss.

A couple others guys including Campbell but who knows if they are even targeting them. Venables if targeted is probably a bigger question mark. Meyer is in one year with JAX, he has at least 2 more years. Not a whole lot out there. Less of a risk to hire a coach already familiar with the program and a nice recruiter too.

 

[Heatles84]

Who knows honestly but all those guys were offensive minds minus Smart. ND must have a lot of faith in him but we will likely know in year one if he has the tools to be the head coach or not. It's usually either a hit or miss.

A couple others guys including Campbell but who knows if they are even targeting them. Venables if targeted is probably a bigger question mark. Meyer is in one year with JAX, he has at least 2 more years. Not a whole lot out there. Less of a risk to hire a coach already familiar with the program and a nice recruiter too.

I really wonder what's keeping Matt Campbell at Iowa State. Ceilings are different for each program. You look at schools like Ohio State, USC, etc... the ceiling is national titles. You look at Iowa State, there ceiling is around 9/10 wins and making a conference title game here and there. He's reached his ceiling, I just don't see why he's still there.

 

[Heatles84]

@fightinfunbags I want to make it clear, I don't dislike Freeman, maybe my tone is misunderstood. I think he's a high risk/high reward hire. He very well could be that guy that gets you to the next level (ie winning a title).

 

[fightinfunbags]

It may work out, it may not. Being an "energy guy" doesn't always translate to success. Kelly left an infrastructure and the cupboards stocked, but Freeman's going to have to shift from being hands on to being the CEO of the program, that is very different. The one critical piece you leave out is the academic restrictions that exist at ND compared to everywhere else. Notre Dame was a mess prior to Brian Kelly coming on board. It could very well fall back into that. The other programs sans Clemson, they tend to stay afloat given that they're well established blue blood programs.

Notre Dame has finished around the top 15 in recruiting. You're not going to do much better than that with the academics being considered at an institution like Notre Dame.

The first class Freeman has been involved with at ND is currently ranked 5 in the 247 composite rankings. Freeman is a big piece of that.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Who knows honestly but all those guys were offensive minds minus Smart. ND must have a lot of faith in him but we will likely know in year one if he has the tools to be the head coach or not. It's usually either a hit or miss.

A couple others guys including Campbell but who knows if they are even targeting them. Venables if targeted is probably a bigger question mark. Meyer is in one year with JAX, he has at least 2 more years. Not a whole lot out there. Less of a risk to hire a coach already familiar with the program and a nice recruiter too.

Campbell shit the bed this year in a subpar Big 12. Would have been disappointed in that hire.

 

[fightinfunbags]

@fightinfunbags I want to make it clear, I don't dislike Freeman, maybe my tone is misunderstood. I think he's a high risk/high reward hire. He very well could be that guy that gets you to the next level (ie winning a title).

Exactly. I don’t want to accept the BK attitude that a national title can’t be won at Notre Dame. I’ve seen 8,9,10 win seasons. Meh. I want to see them truly compete for national titles instead of rolling the ball out and using football and NBC to be something nice they use to sell the school. I am glad they are going for it.

 

[dtgold88]

I can talk baseball.

That is a lot of “iffs” that aren’t going to happen.

Steamer is one of the most trusted projection systems out there that uses advanced stats to predict future player performance. It is always on the conservative side, but…

It has the following ERAs projected for your boys;

-Quantrill: 4.76- he looks like a solid SP who can overachieve buy limiting hard contact, but 7.28K/9 and 2.57 K/BB are more meh than they are high end starter numbers.

If his command stays sharp (not a given) and he can continue to limit hitters to well below average BABIP he can continue to post solid numbers. But steamer has him projected at 4.76 because the skills he demonstrated last year don’t resemble that of a future ace.

He has draft pedigree, so it is possible he takes another step forward, but not something you should be betting on.

-Civale: 4.61- Civale has elite command with just over 2 BB/9, but he gives up an awful lot of hard contact and his K rate was not very impressive.

He has been tweaking his pitch mix over the last year, so maybe he reinvents himself and can improve, but the projection systems currently see him as a back end of rotation guy because he doesn’t miss enough bats and has shown a proclivity to give up the long ball.

-McKenzie: McKenzie clearly has the stuff to be an ace. Unlike the previous 2 he has some real swing and miss stuff and was recently a highly touted prospect.

But, he also really struggled with a 4.35 BB/9 last season and as a fly ball pitcher he has also struggled with the long ball (1.58 and 1.62 HR/9 over his 1st two MLB seasons).

Since he did not have issues with either walks or HRs in the minors, this is a guy who could take a massive leap forward. But he isn’t there yet so you shouldn’t be projecting him there just yet.

Plesac: he had 8 really great starts in 2020. Aside from that run which looks pretty flukey, he is a pitch to contact low end starter.

Clase and Karinchak are as talented as any young RP duo in baseball and Bieber is a proven ace. But the reality is that saying this is a “contender quality pitching staff” is cherry picking the absolute best case scenario and not accounting for any down side at all.

The reality is that beyond Bieber, the rotation has more questions than answers. And the penny pinching Guardians are more likely to trade your 2 studs (Ramirez and Bieber) than they are to go to other way and make moves to try and win. And they SHOULD a trade those 2 to restock and speed up the rebuild.

You asked who has a better rotation in the AL?

According to steamer ERA and IP projections which are completely based on the numbers, these teams all do:

Toronto
Chicago
Tampa Bay
Yankees
Astros
Oakland

And then there are quite a few more like the Angels and Mariners who are also relying on young, unproven guys at the back end who look pretty similar to what Cleveland has.

And yeah, I call you guys homers because you take the rosiest possible outlook and project it as a given.

Could Cleveland have one of the best rotations in the AL? It isn’t impossible, but it damn sure ain’t something you should be claiming today. The projection systems don’t think you have a “contender caliber pitching staff”.

So I am going to go with that.

so go by predicted future numbers over what guys actually have done?

FYI, I didn't even say they were the best as Wiggy did. Just that with even decent hitting it's a good enough rotation to contend. Spend league average and they could acquire better than just decent hitting.

 

[dtgold88]

Maybe I am guilty of getting caught up in the language.

If “contender caliber” to you means good enough to eek into the playoffs in a very weak division when coupled with a hitting boost, then maybe.

To me that comment means they have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball.

And that just isn’t the case. Certainly not yet anyway.

Cleveland was 18th in team ERA last season. Bieber surely boosts that a little.

But really they are somewhere near league average in terms of overall pitching outlook. Maybe slightly above.

That to me is not “contender quality”.

They were 18th in ERA with Bieber missing much of the season and Civale and Plesac missing some or a lot of time. McKenzie still very young and Quantril not made the starter until well into the season.

Weak division? WSox are a really good team. Twins could still be decent. Detroit? Who knows, but their owner is doing what ours will not. This division is as tough as most. are you sure you follow the sport?

 

[dtgold88]

Dabo - He's a rare entity. And holy crap he was on the verge of being fired before he broke through with Watson.
Smart - Was under the greatest college coach of all-time for over a decade. UGA also throws heavy bags at recruits more than anyone.
Day - Honestly, jury's still out on him. Doesn't hurt that you take over a program that Urban Meyer left. I'm curious what Ohio State looks like in year 4/5 of his tenure. But Ohio State is one of the few programs that can recruit itself annually into a top 10 class.
Riley - Again, took over for Bob Stoops and is a rare entity in itself.

Having said that, the schools you listed also don't have the academic restrictions that Notre Dame will be operating under. That's likely why Kelly left Notre Dame. At LSU, he has free reign to bring in any coach he wants. I'm fully aware that Diaz is a crap coach, I was against the hire from day 1. Freeman's been under Brian Kelly for 1 year, doubt he learned that much under him at that time.

Have to be a good recruiter to recruit annually at OSU. without Day, Johnson, Hartline, etc. not sure what might happen but they are elite.

Cooper had limited success as a recruiter and while Tressel was good he was not on the level of Meyer or even Day as a recruiter. as a coach? different story.

 

[thunderc]

If you're worried about losing Caleb Williams, I wouldn't, at least from the outside perspective. You obviously following OU closer than I do and may know better, but this is just my opinion. Personally, since I've followed football, I've never seen OU truly be mediocre. Ultimately, I still think as a program you'll be fine; including navigating through the SEC.

Oh I agree we will be fine, but Williams was the No 1 run pass QB coming out of high school so we want to keep him if we can. His whole family moved here from DC so we have a chance of keeping him.

 

[Heatles84]

Exactly. I don’t want to accept the BK attitude that a national title can’t be won at Notre Dame. I’ve seen 8,9,10 win seasons. Meh. I want to see them truly compete for national titles instead of rolling the ball out and using football and NBC to be something nice they use to sell the school. I am glad they are going for it.

I think the difference is your approach now is you're bringing in very talented DL. Looking at ND's last couple of classes, there's an uptick in the trenches. That's where your weakness has been, especially when playing Bama.

 

[thunderc]

Right now I am sure of exactly one thing for next years team, Drake Stoops will be a slot receiver. That’s it.

 

[Heatles84]

Oh I agree we will be fine, but Williams was the No 1 run pass QB coming out of high school so we want to keep him if we can. His whole family moved here from DC so we have a chance of keeping him.

Unless some school throws bags at him, I can't see him leaving, especially if his family just moved to Norman.

 

[tlance]

this is another post I will have bookmarked.

Yankees? lol they have one guy.

Toronto???? Berrios and Gausman and what?

Tampa is kind of their own thing and dont really rely on starters- and Glasnow is their best and is ALWAYS injured.

Astros I can at least see an argument for

Oakland no way- and not only that but they will probably be trading a guy or two.

I will guarantee you that Quintrell and Civale have sub 4.00 era's.

All I did was post teams with significantly better projections from steamer.

Not my predictions at all.

But book mark away if it makes you happy.

As for those sub 4 ERAs, your guarantees don’t mean a whole lot.

You cutting off the other testicle if they don’t?

 

[tlance]

so go by predicted future numbers over what guys actually have done?

FYI, I didn't even say they were the best as Wiggy did. Just that with even decent hitting it's a good enough rotation to contend. Spend league average and they could acquire better than just decent hitting.

That is a great question.

Honestly it depends.

In the case of an established pitcher like Bieber, of course what he has done is going to more meaningful than a projection system, UNLESS a there is some major red flag like a major velocity change or injury issue signaling possible skill change.

For unproven guys though with 1 good season and some uneven results?

How often do we see pitchers get to MLB and have 1 really good year before the league catches up to them?

It happens a lot. In most cases, those stats that the ERA indicators are built on ARE actually more predictive of future performance than 1 single season of success. Pitchers who do well with those indicator stats also tend to have sustained success over time. Pitchers who don’t tend to come back to earth a bit.

There are always guys Iike Zach Grienke who just know how to pitch and out perform their indicator stats by a substantial margin, but those guys are the exception, not the rule.

So yeah, I am going with the projection system until the pitcher proves he can beat it routinely.

 

[tlance]

They were 18th in ERA with Bieber missing much of the season and Civale and Plesac missing some or a lot of time. McKenzie still very young and Quantril not made the starter until well into the season.

Weak division? WSox are a really good team. Twins could still be decent. Detroit? Who knows, but their owner is doing what ours will not. This division is as tough as most. are you sure you follow the sport?

White Sox are pretty good.

Everyone else appears very mediocre.

Definitely the weakest division in the AL on paper. Are you claiming otherwise?