NBA OFF TOPIC THREAD

[dtgold88]

That is a great question.

Honestly it depends.

In the case of an established pitcher like Bieber, of course what he has done is going to more meaningful than a projection system, UNLESS a there is some major red flag like a major velocity change or injury issue signaling possible skill change.

For unproven guys though with 1 good season and some uneven results?

How often do we see pitchers get to MLB and have 1 really good year before the league catches up to them?

It happens a lot. In most cases, those stats that the ERA indicators are built on ARE actually more predictive of future performance than 1 single season of success. Pitchers who do well with those indicator stats also tend to have sustained success over time. Pitchers who don’t tend to come back to earth a bit.

There are always guys Iike Zach Grienke who just know how to pitch and out perform their indicator stats by a substantial margin, but those guys are the exception, not the rule.

So yeah, I am going with the projection system until the pitcher proves he can beat it routinely.

Civale has had more than 1 good season to think his ERA will drop significantly.

 

[dtgold88]

White Sox are pretty good.

Everyone else appears very mediocre.

Definitely the weakest division in the AL on paper. Are you claiming otherwise?

One pretty good team and 4 mediocre teams actually would make for a good division. The best? Maybe not, but you said weak and by the way you just described it that would not be weak.

 

[dtgold88]

some interesting stuff, @Stakesarehigh @Shanemansj13 @WiggyRuss

Not gospel, but this HOF QB could know what he's talking about. His coach who helped make him what he was (Martz) was on our local station here and said Baker could take a team to a SB. Again, not sure he can but he is at least as believable as Rex Ryan who never made a QB much of anything.....

 

[tlance]

One pretty good team and 4 mediocre teams actually would make for a good division. The best? Maybe not, but you said weak and by the way you just described it that would not be weak.

The 4th place team in the AL East had 11 more wins than the 2nd place team in the Central.

The 3rd place team in the West had 6 more wins than the 2nd place in the Central and the 2nd place team had only 2 fewer than the Sox.

The Sox had the worst record of any AL division champ.

The average win total for the Central was 79.4. The West was 81.6 and the East was 85.0.

The Central was definitely the weakest division last year. Time will tell if that holds true again.

Mediocre is not a good thing.

 

[tlance]

Civale has had more than 1 good season to think his ERA will drop significantly.

He has had 3 seasons ranging from 2.34 - 4.76 and has only pitched 256 career innings. That is like a season and a half worth of starts.

This year will begin to tell us who he is.

 

[Shanemansj13]

some interesting stuff, @Stakesarehigh @Shanemansj13 @WiggyRuss

Not gospel, but this HOF QB could know what he's talking about. His coach who helped make him what he was (Martz) was on our local station here and said Baker could take a team to a SB. Again, not sure he can but he is at least as believable as Rex Ryan who never made a QB much of anything.....

Actually saw that video title earlier, was going to check it out but didn't have time.

 

[logic]

 

[logic]

some interesting stuff, @Stakesarehigh @Shanemansj13 @WiggyRuss

Not gospel, but this HOF QB could know what he's talking about. His coach who helped make him what he was (Martz) was on our local station here and said Baker could take a team to a SB. Again, not sure he can but he is at least as believable as Rex Ryan who never made a QB much of anything.....

Trent Dilfer won a Superbowl, so anyone can with the right team around them.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Trent Dilfer won a Superbowl, so anyone can with the right team around them.

I don't necessarily agree with that but I don't really care to talk about Baker. He improved greatly last season and a ton of injuries this year, hard to evaluate this season. The problem is the Browns don't have many choices (or maybe none) to replace him, whether people think he is a good or not. I just want the best option for the team long-term, like I said, he might be the only option. No way can you draft a guy, take even more risk and waste prime years of these young players. What QB's in FA or through trade would be a better, realistic option than Baker? Other than the guy that has committed crimes.

 

[dtgold88]

The 4th place team in the AL East had 11 more wins than the 2nd place team in the Central.

The 3rd place team in the West had 6 more wins than the 2nd place in the Central and the 2nd place team had only 2 fewer than the Sox.

The Sox had the worst record of any AL division champ.

The average win total for the Central was 79.4. The West was 81.6 and the East was 85.0.

The Central was definitely the weakest division last year. Time will tell if that holds true again.

Mediocre is not a good thing.

Mediocre might not be good, but it is not weak.

 

[dtgold88]

He has had 3 seasons ranging from 2.34 - 4.76 and has only pitched 256 career innings. That is like a season and a half worth of starts.

This year will begin to tell us who he is.

OK. You think he'll regress because someone told you he would.

Never mind you ignore if the rotation was just decent it would be good enough to make a postseason run if the team added $70 mil+ to their offense to get to league avg.

 

[dtgold88]

Trent Dilfer won a Superbowl, so anyone can with the right team around them.

OK...But Martz said lead a team to the SB, not be led there.

can he? I have my doubts, but it's not a crazy notion. Who do you trust to know more about QBs, Martz/Warner or Rex Ryan....or random fan with an agenda?

 

[dtgold88]

I don't necessarily agree with that but I don't really care to talk about Baker. He improved greatly last season and a ton of injuries this year, hard to evaluate this season. The problem is the Browns don't have many choices (or maybe none) to replace him, whether people think he is a good or not. I just want the best option for the team long-term, like I said, he might be the only option. No way can you draft a guy, take even more risk and waste prime years of these young players. What QB's in FA or through trade would be a better, realistic option than Baker? Other than the guy that has committed crimes.

I hear a lot of talk about Wilson, but this guy is kind of falling apart, too, this season (like baker, maybe it's an injury issue with him). IF he can still play I don't see them moving on unless Carrol is leaving. Not sure a guy his age has interest in a rebuild.

Maybe Matt Ryan?

 

[Shanemansj13]

I hear a lot of talk about Wilson, but this guy is kind of falling apart, too, this season (like baker, maybe it's an injury issue with him). IF he can still play I don't see them moving on unless Carrol is leaving. Not sure a guy his age has interest in a rebuild.

Maybe Matt Ryan?

No way I am trading Baker for Ryan

 

[trojanfan12]

No way I am trading Baker for Ryan

Probably couldn't get Ryan for him anyway.

Josh Rosen?

 

[tlance]

OK. You think he'll regress because someone told you he would.

Never mind you ignore if the rotation was just decent it would be good enough to make a postseason run if the team added $70 mil+ to their offense to get to league avg.

I never once said what I think he will do. Not once.

I merely posted projections from a top notch baseball projection systems. I have not spent enough time looking at the data to make my own projection, nor do I care too.

Not going to argue semantics with you. But I would be willing to bet that the Guardians finish with fewer than 80 wins this season.

 

[dtgold88]

I never once said what I think he will do. Not once.

I merely posted projections from a top notch baseball projection systems. I have not spent enough time looking at the data to make my own projection, nor do I care too.

Not going to argue semantics with you. But I would be willing to bet that the Guardians finish with fewer than 80 wins this season.

Fair point...you only agreed with what someone else's database said he'd do.

I think you have lost track of the discussion (also you being you). I'd also bet the Guardians do not win 80 games. This would matter if had any bearing on what we were discussing.....what the Guardians could do if they spent league average. I said they'd likely contend and you seem to disagree....well, actually we don't know what you think as you need someone else to tell you what to think or you need to change the topic.

 

[tlance]

Fair point...you only agreed with what someone else's database said he'd do.

I think you have lost track of the discussion (also you being you). I'd also bet the Guardians do not win 80 games. This would matter if had any bearing on what we were discussing.....what the Guardians could do if they spent league average. I said they'd likely contend and you seem to disagree....well, actually we don't know what you think as you need someone else to tell you what to think or you need to change the topic.

No, I didn’t agree with anything man!

I posted a projection. That is all. The projection system does not think the Guardians rotation is very good at all.

The only thing I have said is that I don’t think their pitching staff is contender quality. I think it is pretty average overall. And that to me is not contender quality.

 

[dtgold88]

No, I didn’t agree with anything man!

I posted a projection. That is all. The projection system does not think the Guardians rotation is very good at all.

The only thing I have said is that I don’t think their pitching staff is contender quality. I think it is pretty average overall. And that to me is not contender quality.

Well, they were "pretty average" with many of those starters out for a large portion of the 2021 season. In addition, we were really bad at 5-6 positions on offense. You don't think if the starters could be a little healthier AND they added $70 mil to the payroll to help the offense we could be better than last season?

 

[tlance]

Well, they were "pretty average" with many of those starters out for a large portion of the 2021 season. In addition, we were really bad at 5-6 positions on offense. You don't think if the starters could be a little healthier AND they added $70 mil to the payroll to help the offense we could be better than last season?

I didn’t say they wouldn’t be better.

But I don’t think they would be a contender!

Also, injuries are always going to happen with a pitching staff. Always.

That is why the best pitching staffs go 6 or 7 guys deep with a couple guys ready to step in when someone goes down.

That was where Cleveland was a couple years ago.

You know, when they actually had a contender quality pitching staff.