Moss not at 49ers workouts

[Bemular]

Smith's decision-making was quite good this year, and allowed him to compensate for his mediocre accuracy.

Brilliant!

 

[Bemular]

I wanted to return to this statement in a little more detail. I've already addressed this curious concept of an "accurate decision."

It's the second part that really strikes me, though. Smith's good decision has allowed him to throw an easier pass that does not require the same accuracy as the difficult pass. Obviously there must be some degree of accuracy to complete any pass at any level of football. But if Smith checks down to an open receiver, he has a MUCH bigger window to throw into, and he can throw a MUCH higher percentage pass. If he is inaccurate, his teammate still has a good chance of catching the ball because it is a much easier situation in which to make a catch. Smith's completion percentage will increase regardless of his relative accuracy, unless he is way off, but it doesn't tell us much about how accurate the ball really was.

If anything, the statement above is a strong argument for the difference between decision-making and accuracy. You have used it in a bizarre attempt to equate the two.

Not equate - correlate. I am learning that you have absolutely no clue what accuracy is or means. In your mind accuracy is the measure of the passes not thrown because of good decision making. You sir are a genius and no one should ever doubt you.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Smith's decision-making was quite good this year, and allowed him to compensate for his mediocre accuracy by making easier throws or taking sacks.

Brilliant!

Not really. It's really quite obvious to anyone who watched the games. Let's not pretend that was the argument you were making.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Not equate - correlate. I am learning that you have absolutely no clue what accuracy is or means. In your mind accuracy is the measure of the passes not thrown because of good decision making. You sir are a genius and no one should ever doubt you.

As I said, accuracy is the ability to put the ball precisely where you want it to go. You are the one who thinks an "accurate decision" is somehow pertinent to an accurate throw.

Again, this is all distraction from the fact that you have failed to back up your assertion. Nothing you have said demonstrates that Smith's relative lack of arm strength causes accuracy.

 

[NinerSickness]

How 'bout we settle on this:

Alex's lack of arm strength causes him hazard to mainly high percentage throws, which makes him have a high completion percentage but a low YPA.

 

[Bemular]

How 'bout we settle on this:

Alex's lack of arm strength causes him hazard to mainly high percentage throws, which makes him have a high completion percentage but a low YPA.

Sick, do you mean his lack of arm strength causes him hazard on more difficult passes thus causing him to settle for higher percentage passes?

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Sick, do you mean his lack of arm strength causes him hazard on more difficult passes thus causing him to settle for higher percentage passes?

I read it as most likely intending to say: "causes him to hazard mainly high percentage passes...." The verb form of hazard is being used.

 

[MHSL82]

You have presented an argument for Smith making good decisions. I don't disagree. Smith's decision-making was quite good this year, and allowed him to compensate for his mediocre accuracy by making easier throws or taking sacks. Unfortunately, your claim was that his relatively weak arm led to greater accuracy. You have done nothing to support that, no matter how you try to distract from that.

If you only look at the passes that are thrown and he only throws to safe receivers, I'd guess that he's a good enough passer on those safe throws that it appears that he is accurate at pin-point passes, despite not needing those passes to be pin-point. Having said that, I've never commended someone for throwing safe passes with pin-point accuracy, only tight window throws. Plus, I haven't noticed Smith's accuracy beyond completion percentage on safe passes as far as ball position - I know I've seen many on-target and a few off-target, whether that's due to communication, chemistry, physical ability, or simply he doesn't have time to worry about throwing a better safe pass. I've seen the best throw off target safe passes as well as bad QBs throw great safe passes.

As far as non-safe passes, Smith has completed many tight window passes with pin-point accuracy. He's also missed many and we all know he has "passed" on passing some of them. This goes to consistency.

Part of the limited number of passes could be ability physically, part of it is confidence in the receiver, confidence in his physical ability, confidence in the system, confidence in his knowledge of the system, and also the design of the system (Harbaugh isn't asking for pin-point passes on every throw - partly due to time in the system, the receivers, and of course, his perception of Alex's abilities). A few of those should either be resolved or as good as it's going to get this year. Sink or swim, Alex.

 

[NinerSickness]

I read it as most likely intending to say: "causes him to hazard mainly high percentage passes...." The verb form of hazard is being used.

Yes, that's what I meant. Should've just said "risk."

 

[Bemular]

How 'bout we settle on this:

Alex's lack of arm strength causes him to hazard mainly high percentage throws, which makes him have a high completion percentage but a low YPA.

Of course I have no problem with this point of view as it seems to paraphrase precisely my position. For what it's worth ~2/3rds of all pass attempts in the NFL are within 10-yards. So arm strength honestly has little to do with him throwing mostly high completion stuff - that is just how offenses are designed.

If there are any passes that Alex probably throws less of than other QB's I would wager a guess they are the high velocity stuff like 15Yds+ Outs, Crosses, Digs, etc.

 

[NinerSickness]

For what it's worth ~2/3rds of all pass attempts in the NFL are within 10-yards. So arm strength honestly has little to do with him throwing mostly high completion stuff -

This is where we disagree. First of all even a 5 yard out requires a strong arm to be a dangerous pass. Second of all, if a defense knows that a QB probably is not going to beat you between defenders and on the sidelines it makes the offense easier to defend. The offense becomes more predictable. Third of all 1/3 of NFL passes a QB makes is a huge portion. Games are often won or lost by 1 play.

 

[Bemular]

This is where we disagree. First of all even a 5 yard out requires a strong arm to be a dangerous pass. Second of all, if a defense knows that a QB probably is not going to beat you between defenders and on the sidelines it makes the offense easier to defend. The offense becomes more predictable. Third of all 1/3 of NFL passes a QB makes is a huge portion. Games are often won or lost by 1 play.

You completely missed my point but we actually don't disagree at all - So I'm good.

 

[NinerSickness]

I think I got off track a little...

Passes 1-10 yards are by definition higher percentage passes than 10-15 or 15-20. Obviously the rate goes down as the yardage gets higher. I think weak armed QBs attempt fewer passes past 10 yards than strong armed QBs do. I don't know if that contradicts or agrees with your opinion...

A side note: Even a quick out, which can be a zero yard pass, requires a strong arm. If a QB doesn't have the ability to sling a pass with high velocity without shifting too much weight (thus taking little time) even a zero yard out is less successful because the DB has more time to get to the WR.

 

[Bemular]

I think I got off track a little...

Passes 1-10 yards are by definition higher percentage passes than 10-15 or 15-20. Obviously the rate goes down as the yardage gets higher. I think weak armed QBs attempt fewer passes past 10 yards than strong armed QBs do. I don't know if that contradicts or agrees with your opinion...

A side note: Even a quick out, which can be a zero yard pass, requires a strong arm. If a QB doesn't have the ability to sling a pass with high velocity without shifting too much weight (thus taking little time) even a zero yard out is less successful because the DB has more time to get to the WR.

My 'pass distance' comment was based on my belief that Smith lacks velocity more than strength. So, honestly, it was more of a curious gesture than an opinion. Because of my belief, however, I would not be at all surprised to find that Smith throws a fair amount of passes 30+ yards.

As for the out routes, yep, those are perhaps the most demanding when it comes to velocity. For the sake of boredom I calculated (hopefully correctly) the distances for 8 different out routes.

Near side outs at 5, 10, 15 & 20 yards cover appx
18.7yds
20.6yds
23.4yds
26.9yds

Wide side outs at 5, 10, 15 & 20 yards cover appx
31.7yds
32.9yds
34.7yds
37.2yds

Now if someone has a DVR would could reasonably calculate Smiths velocity/speed; Kaepernick hit 59 mph. Thus Kaepernick's time from release to catch for the above outs are appx

Near outs:
0.64 seconds
0.71 seconds
0.81 seconds
0.93 seconds

Wide outs:
1.09 seconds
1.14 seconds
1.20 seconds
1.28 seconds

 

[Bemular]

My 'pass distance' comment was based on my belief that Smith lacks velocity more than strength. So, honestly, it was more of a curious gesture than an opinion. Because of my belief, however, I would not be at all surprised to find that Smith throws a fair amount of passes 30+ yards.

Okay, so I figured I would put in the time to put my hypothesis to the test and here are the results:

According to ESPN Stats:

The following are the percent averages for the attempted passes in each pass distance category for the top 32 QBs and how Alex compares.

------Behind LOS------1-10yds-----11-20yds-----21-30yds----31+yds

Avg:---16.55%--------48.71%------23.76%--------6.69%------4.44%

Smith--16.97%--------56.56%------18.33%--------4.75%------3.39%


The following are the Avg. Comp %'s for each pass distance category for the top 32 QBs and how Alex compares.

------Behind LOS------1-10yds-----11-20yds-----21-30yds----31+yds

Avg:---77.09%--------65.79%------51.68%-------36.34%------27.62%

Smith--76.00%--------63.20%------54.30%-------31.10%------33.33%

 

[Bemular]

Okay, so I figured I would put in the time to put my hypothesis to the test and here are the results:

According to ESPN Stats:

The following are the percent averages for the attempted passes in each pass distance category for the top 32 QBs and how Alex compares.

------Behind LOS------1-10yds-----11-20yds-----21-30yds----31+yds

Avg:---16.55%--------48.71%------23.76%--------6.69%------4.44%

Smith--16.97%--------56.56%------18.33%--------4.75%------3.39%


The following are the Avg. Comp %'s for each pass distance category for the top 32 QBs and how Alex compares.

------Behind LOS------1-10yds-----11-20yds-----21-30yds----31+yds

Avg:---77.09%--------65.79%------51.68%-------36.34%------27.62%

Smith--76.00%--------63.20%------54.30%-------38.10%------33.33%

Smith's completion % for 21-30yds should be 38.10% not 31.10%...

 

[deep9er]

good work and assuming these stats are correct, Alex Smith is "NFL average". he is average throughout the distance range, not just "check downs".

if someone wants to push it to 'above average', no problem here.

 

[Bemular]

good work and assuming these stats are correct, Alex Smith is "NFL average". he is average throughout the distance range, not just "check downs".

if someone wants to push it to 'above average', no problem here.

Hey Deep, the stats are as accurate as ESPN made them and include 14,588 pass attempts. I would give him a solid average to above average.

 

[deep9er]

Hey Deep, the stats are as accurate as ESPN made them and include 14,588 pass attempts. I would give him a solid average to above average.

yeah ok, then good enough for me.

 

[Bemular]

Thought Smith's answer fit best in this thread:

Via Live Chat / Wednesday April 25, 2012 3:45PM:

Sam:

"How far can you throw a football? Really curious!!! I remember at utah you had a freaking cannon! "

Alex Smith:

"65-70 yards depending on the Bay Area winds that day."