Moss not at 49ers workouts

[TobyTyler]

Yeah...because he was horrible at hitting Vernon Davis on those routes huh? Frequently under threw Davis, especially on the sideline...

Yep, that seemed to happen at least three times a game. Yawn.

 

[Bemular]

Yep, that seemed to happen at least three times a game. Yawn.

Let's not forget the two sideline passes Smith dropped beautifully into Davis' arms that he ignorantly stepped out of bounds on the first one (vs ARI) and then bobbled a perfect pass on the second one before stepping oob (vs. SEA).

 

[TobyTyler]

Let's not forget the two sideline passes Smith dropped beautifully into Davis' arms that he ignorantly stepped out of bounds on the first one (vs ARI) and then bobbled a perfect pass on the second one before stepping oob (vs. SEA).

That's true. There were a couple.

 

[Bemular]

That's true. There were a couple.

Hell, now that you have me thinking about it, Davis' biggest miss had to be the perfectly thrown pass vs. StL. The one Smith practically handed to Davis from 50+ yards away and he dropped it in the end zone.

 

[NinerSickness]

Bemular, you're right. I should have read your post more carefully. You did mention routes Alex can throw just fine. However, those aren't the only routes Moss will run, so I stand by the rest of what I said about his lack of arm strength.

"but he's limited and more predictable / easier to defend"

on getting the ball to a spot, is it physical or mental? does he lack the arm strength to fire that ball to a spot, or does he lack the "gun slinger" mentality to fire it to a spot?

It's 100% physical. He simply doesn't have a very strong arm.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Wow, that disagreement lasted a whole 29 posts - LOL!!...

Sick, you are going in a completely different direction with this discussion. So, for the sake of clarification, this is my point.

Smith has plenty of arm strength for vertical routes. What Smith lacks is velocity for "outs" (which is precisely what I said in post #16). But, to tell the truth, everything I have said in this thread is common knowledge to even the most casual fan, so why you and Crimson (and your little buddy, yeah I saw him sneak in there) are arguing against these well known facts about Smith is beyond me, at least in your case. Either way, both of you should know better.

A couple other question/corrections are in order here as well. Let's start with this statement:

However, he's [Smith's] not very accurate on... say... combeback routes to the sideline (when rolling out or when stading still)

Regarding this statement, first, how are you quantifying "not very accurate", between 30-40%? Then, second, how are you contrasting that figure? I don't know what his accuracy was on "outs" (although I could find out), but from my observations the only thing inaccurate here seems to be your statement.


He's also inaccurate when trying to hit a WR quickly in front of (meaning closer to the OL) the safety but past the CB.

Again, not sure how you are quantifying "inaccurate" and I'm not even sure what route splits CB's & S's but gets thrown to "quickly". Perhaps you are thinking of LB's & S's. Either way, by my observation some of Smiths best passes this season split defenders. The playoffs alone should be evidence of that; I'm not sure how you can suggest otherwise.

Lastly, both you and Crimson have suggested that Alex Smith needs to wind-up like Juan Marichal just to throw a pass over 40 yards and that is just blatantly false. His is not the strongest arm but it is not nearly as weak as you Crimson are making it out to be - if it were, he wouldn't be in the NFL.

A few thoughts.

First, saying Smith has plenty of arm strength to make throws along the sidelines isn't much of an argument. With the exception of Ken Dorsey and one or two other players, every NFL QB has the arm strength to make these throws on occasion. To use an example of a player you are not fond of, I could say that Crabtree has the tools to get open deep. It would be difficult to dispute this claim, as we've all seen him do it. But what does that statement really mean? Crabtree's physical tools limit his ability to get open deep on a regular basis. As such, the fact he CAN do it isn't particularly compelling. Smith has the arm strength to make sideline throws. He hasn't shown he can consistently connect on those passes, though, and I believe his arm strength - and perhaps more importantly, his faith in his arm strength - play a role.

Arm strength absolutely ties into how frequently and in what situations a player makes difficult throws, including go routes along the sidelines. Smith doesn't attempt those throws very often, and he doesn't connect on them very often when he does throw them. I believe that arm strength plays a part in that, at least indirectly.

Smith's arm strength is adequate. But it's not good and it's certainly not elite. I can't recall him making many impressive throws off his back foot. He can make difficult, big-time throws, like the game-winner to Davis against the Saints, but he needs fairly ideal circumstances to do it. At least he has to date. It's not a matter of winding up, as you claim. It's a matter of stepping into the throw and driving the ball. Smith really needs to get behind a ball to send it 40+ yards. I believe that affects his accuracy, and I have no doubt that if affects his decision to throw that ball in less-than-ideal circumstances.

I'll be very interested to see what Smith can do throwing to Moss along the sidelines this year. Will he throw to Moss in coverage? Will he hit him in stride when he's got a step? I guess we'll find out. I certainly hope he can.

 

[Bemular]

Bemular, you're right. I should have read your post more carefully. You did mention routes Alex can throw just fine. However, those aren't the only routes Moss will run, so I stand by the rest of what I said about his lack of arm strength.

It's 100% physical. He simply doesn't have a very strong arm.

I believe his arm has become stronger since he came into the league, but, very good to elite velocity, which is the result of more than just strength, continues to elude him; although not nearly as bad as it once did.

Alex has completed 15-yard outs, but he needs more separation than say a Matthew Stafford, a Josh Freeman or a Jay Cutler. Thus, contrary to yours and Crimsons belief that his lack of arm strength causes inaccuracy, it doesn't, in fact, as we witnessed last season, it has quite the opposite effect.

What his arm strength/velocity issues might cause, is a reduction in both opportunities and chances taken, but not in accuracy.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I believe his arm has become stronger since he came into the league, but, very good to elite velocity, which is the result of more than just strength, continues to elude him; although not nearly as bad as it once did.

Alex has completed 15-yard outs, but he needs more separation than say a Matthew Stafford, a Josh Freeman or a Jay Cutler. Thus, contrary to yours and Crimsons belief that his lack of arm strength causes inaccuracy, it doesn't, in fact, as we witnessed last season, it has quite the opposite effect.

What his arm strength/velocity issues might cause, is a reduction in both opportunities and chances taken, but not in accuracy.

His lack of arm strength causes greater accuracy? How do you figure that?

 

[Bemular]

His lack of arm strength causes greater accuracy? How do you figure that?

Simple. By playing within his limitations this past season Smith didn't force his throws and as a result he had his highest completion as well as the lowest INT% of his career; both are strongly correlated to accuracy.

As an example: It's 2nd & 8 and Roman calls for an out at the sticks but the defender doesn't bite on the in or the go and is too close on the timing for Smith's velocity. Smith recognizes this, doesn't risk a TO by forcing the throw and instead hits Gore underneath for six and lives to convert a 3rd & short.

So by not having the strength/velocity to hit the primary target and having the intelligence to recognize this as well as an offense designed to support this situation he completes a pass and avoids a turnover.

 

[NinerSickness]

What his arm strength/velocity issues might cause, is a reduction in both opportunities and chances taken, but not in accuracy.

This is where I disagree. When Alex has to throw it fast the ball goes wild. A lot.

 

[Bemular]

This is where I disagree. When Alex has to throw it fast the ball goes wild. A lot.

Are you referring to throws he had to make under pressure or 1 & 3 step drops? I don't recall seeing a lot, let alone an abnormal amount of passes go wild last year to be honest. A few yes, but certainly not a lot and certainly not an abnormal amount.

 

[NinerSickness]

I didn't notice a big difference between his high velocity throws in 3 step drops VS 5 or even 7, and obviously all QBs become less accurate / efficient when under pressure.

 

[Bemular]

I didn't notice a big difference between his high velocity throws in 3 step drops VS 5 or even 7, and obviously all QBs become less accurate / efficient when under pressure.

Exactly. I mean, Smith certainly had some balls sail outside the strike zone, but overall, in terms of accuracy, I thought he pitched pretty well last year.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Simple. By playing within his limitations this past season Smith didn't force his throws and as a result he had his highest completion as well as the lowest INT% of his career; both are strongly correlated to accuracy.

As an example: It's 2nd & 8 and Roman calls for an out at the sticks but the defender doesn't bite on the in or the go and is too close on the timing for Smith's velocity. Smith recognizes this, doesn't risk a TO by forcing the throw and instead hits Gore underneath for six and lives to convert a 3rd & short.

So by not having the strength/velocity to hit the primary target and having the intelligence to recognize this as well as an offense designed to support this situation he completes a pass and avoids a turnover.

That's an argument for his lack of arm strength causing a higher completion percentage, not greater accuracy.

 

[TobyTyler]

That's an argument for his lack of arm strength causing a higher completion percentage, not greater accuracy.

Good point though some here will fail to see the distinction between the two.

 

[Bemular]

That's an argument for his lack of arm strength causing a higher completion percentage, not greater accuracy.

Actually, you are inside out. A high completion percent and a low INT% are the results of accuracy - not the other way around. If, due to a lack of arm strength Smith chooses an alternative to his primary target and he completes the pass, then not only did he make an accurate decision (demonstrating intelligence) but he also demonstrated passing accuracy in completing the pass and not causing a TO.

On the other hand, if he chooses to make a throw he is incapable of making and the pass is subsequently picked off or is thrown incomplete (as opposed to thrown away) then he has demonstrated a lack of mental accuracy as well as physical accuracy.

You can attempt to split hairs with this concept but the fundamentals remain and they are simply that a high (above average) completion % combined with a low INT % are the results of both accurate decision making and accurate passing.

 

[Bemular]

Good point though some here will fail to see the distinction between the two.

Mystery revealed, boy that didn't take long. No one here will fail to see the distinction, but perhaps a few might not understand the relationship.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Actually, you are inside out. A high completion percent and a low INT% are the results of accuracy - not the other way around. If, due to a lack of arm strength Smith chooses an alternative to his primary target and he completes the pass, then not only did he make an accurate decision (demonstrating intelligence) but he also demonstrated passing accuracy in completing the pass and not causing a TO.

On the other hand, if he chooses to make a throw he is incapable of making and the pass is subsequently picked off or is thrown incomplete (as opposed to thrown away) then he has demonstrated a lack of mental accuracy as well as physical accuracy.

You can attempt to split hairs with this concept but the fundamentals remain and they are simply that a high (above average) completion % combined with a low INT % are the results of both accurate decision making and accurate passing.

This is a vintage Bemular post.

Step One: Distract from your mistake by altering the other side's argument. You have attributed something to me that I never said. Specifically, that accuracy is the result of completion percentage. Not only did I never make that claim, it's an absolutely ridiculous statement that doesn't make any logical sense. Undoubtedly, you realize that it will be easier to refute this imaginary claim than what I have actually said. This is a textbook straw man.

Step Two: Manipulate language to subtly change the topic and make it seem like your incorrect assertion was correct. An "accurate decision"? WTF is that? Accuracy in the context of this discussion is the ability to throw the ball where you want the ball to go. Decision-making is entirely independent of accuracy. You are attempting to equate the two.

Step Three: Treat any criticism as minor and irrelevant. As said, accuracy and decision-making are not the same thing. That is not "splitting hairs." It is drawing a significant and obvious distinction between two elements of completion percentage. I would think you of all people would appreciate this, especially in the context of this discussion.

A high completion percentage is a combination of many things, but probably the two most important are accuracy and decision-making, as you note.

You have presented an argument for Smith making good decisions. I don't disagree. Smith's decision-making was quite good this year, and allowed him to compensate for his mediocre accuracy by making easier throws or taking sacks. Unfortunately, your claim was that his relatively weak arm led to greater accuracy. You have done nothing to support that, no matter how you try to distract from that.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Mystery revealed, boy that didn't take long. No one here will fail to see the distinction, but perhaps a few might not understand the relationship.

You're the only one who is attempting to obscure the distinction between accuracy and decision-making.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

If, due to a lack of arm strength Smith chooses an alternative to his primary target and he completes the pass, then not only did he make an accurate decision (demonstrating intelligence) but he also demonstrated passing accuracy in completing the pass and not causing a TO.

I wanted to return to this statement in a little more detail. I've already addressed this curious concept of an "accurate decision."

It's the second part that really strikes me, though. Smith's good decision has allowed him to throw an easier pass that does not require the same accuracy as the difficult pass. Obviously there must be some degree of accuracy to complete any pass at any level of football. But if Smith checks down to an open receiver, he has a MUCH bigger window to throw into, and he can throw a MUCH higher percentage pass. If he is inaccurate, his teammate still has a good chance of catching the ball because it is a much easier situation in which to make a catch. Smith's completion percentage will increase regardless of his relative accuracy, unless he is way off, but it doesn't tell us much about how accurate the ball really was.

If anything, the statement above is a strong argument for the difference between decision-making and accuracy. You have used it in a bizarre attempt to equate the two.