MLB Top 10 Outfields - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

Part 1 of 2

Young Marlins trio tops MLB top-10 outfield rankings - ESPN
By Buster Olney

1. Miami Marlins

The Marlins' trio of Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna is incredibly young, and while colleague Jonah Keri might consider this blasphemous, it's not unreasonable to wonder whether these guys might eventually compare favorably with some of the trios that the Montreal Expos fielded through their extraordinary history of outfielders, such as the trio of Tim Raines, Andre Dawson and Ellis Valentine (or Warren Cromartie), or the Moises Alou/Marquis Grissom/Larry Walker set. Stanton appears destined to be remembered as one of Major League Baseball's great power hitters, Yelich's career is off to an excellent start, and the other day, ESPN Insider Tony Blengino explained why Ozuna looks ready to break out.

Opposing pitchers already worked carefully to Stanton -- especially lefties, given his 1.000-plus OPS against them -- but this probably will be the season he starts to get a steady dose of the Barry Bonds treatment, as Andrew McCutchen and Freddie Freeman did last season. Stanton had 94 walks last season, and a rival scout mentioned the other day that it's a wonder he didn't have a lot more than that.

The Marlins' other two starting outfielders will have a lot to do with whether Miami exploits the chances created by Stanton's dominance at the plate. Yelich will hit in front of Stanton, along with Dee Gordon, and as Pirates manager Clint Hurdle noted last summer, lineup protection really comes from the spots in front of an elite hitter, not behind him, because if the top of the order consistently fills the bases, pitchers are backed into a corner and forced to deal with someone like Stanton. And Ozuna will hit behind Stanton somewhere, although the Marlins aren't sure where yet, and should bat often with Stanton on base.

As with those Montreal outfield combinations, there is excellence on defense as well, with Ozuna and Yelich each ranking among the leaders in defensive runs saved at their respective positions. Mark Simon, the "minister of defense" for ESPN Stats and Information, passed along numbers that show Stanton's improvement: "Stanton had rated well in right field every season but 2013 (minus-7 DRS). He bounced back to 7 DRS in 2014.

"Baseball Info Solutions charts good fielding plays and defensive misplays and errors as a means of doing advanced scorekeeping. Good plays can be things such as catches on tough-to-catch balls and cutting off throws to prevent baserunners from taking extra bases. Defensive misplays would be things like slipping and falling, failing to cut off a ball or failing to handle a carom off the wall cleanly." Here's a look at both categories for Stanton:

Stanton good plays vs. misplays and errors
2010: 25 good, 20 misplays and errors
2011: 25 good, 49 misplays and errors
2012: 24 good, 37 misplays and errors
2013: 18 good, 39 misplays and errors
2014: 28 good, 29 misplays and errors

"So he got his ratio back to 1-to-1, when it was not close to that from 2011 to 2013."

Stanton appears to be locked up through the next Bush or Clinton presidency, and Yelich and Ozuna are under team control for the years ahead. They could accomplish a whole lot together.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates

Andrew McCutchen didn't win the MVP award last summer, as he did in 2013, but he seemed to grow as a hitter as he coped with that Bonds treatment, learning how to do damage while seeing his walk total climb. Similarly, Pittsburgh left fielder Starling Marte had a season of progress, fighting his way through a horrific early-season slump to rate among the game's best hitters in the second half, when only three hitters -- Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and Buster Posey -- posted a higher OPS.

The wild card for the Pirates' outfield production is the talented Gregory Polanco. When the Pittsburgh fan base clamored for the promotion of Polanco early last season, GM Neal Huntington warned about the adjustments that he would eventually face, knowing that Polanco is a tall hitter with long arms who would be facing a new level of challenges from opposing pitchers. As it turned out, Huntington turned out to be dead on in his assessment. Polanco started nicely, but finished with a .650 OPS, often sitting late in the season. If Polanco takes a step forward in 2015, as Ozuna did for the Marlins in 2014, the Pirates' outfield could be the majors' best.

3. Washington Nationals

Jayson Werth's status for the start of the season is up in the air following shoulder surgery, but there is this consolation: It's his right shoulder that is getting fixed, not his left shoulder, the lead shoulder in his swing. Werth played through the issue last season and had a strong season at the plate, racking up 54 extra-base hits and 83 walks and scoring 85 runs. He'll move to left field this year, with Bryce Harper shifting to right field, and some year there will be a major Harper breakout. Maybe 2015 will be the year he stays healthy and puts up big numbers. The steady Denard Span mans center field, coming off a season in which he posted a .771 OPS.

4. Kansas City Royals

Alex Gordon was an AL MVP candidate for much of last season, and if the Royals had won the World Series, you could've made a case for Lorenzo Cain as the World Series MVP.

Meanwhile, some folks in opposing organizations are pleased that Jarrod Dyson is only a part-time player so far because of his impact on the basepaths and in the field; he had 290 plate appearances in 2014, and it appears he will serve basically as the fourth outfielder again. The Royals are betting that Alex Rios will be better than he was last season with the Rangers, when his power simply disappeared. He hit just one homer after May 14 -- in 352 plate appearances.

5. St. Louis Cardinals

Jason Heyward has been warmly welcomed in St. Louis, and perhaps this will be the place where he will develop consistency, smooth out his swing, learn to deal with the inside fastballs he gets constantly and fare better against left-handed pitchers. Heyward has been one of MLB's best defenders in recent seasons, and he fits into the Cardinals' efforts over the past 15 months to improve the team's glove work. Center fielder Jon Jay had a resurgence in 2014, pushing his average to .303 and improving his defense.

Some rival evaluators watched Allen Craig struggle to hit behind Matt Holliday in the first half last season and felt there was no reason to give Holliday opportunities to hit in crucial spots. As the St. Louis production around Holliday improved through 2014, Holliday also got better. He continues to be an anchor in the Cards' lineup, but he just turned 35 and his OPS+ has been in decline:

2009: 169
2010: 149
2011: 151
2012: 138
2013: 142
2014: 126

6. New York Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury had a good first season with the Yankees, with 48 extra-base hits and 39 stolen bases, although he and the team probably expected more. Left fielder Brett Gardner ranks among the better defenders at his position, and he's coming off a year of unexpected power. He hit 17 homers, acknowledging that he increasingly looked for opportunities to drive the ball in particular ball-strike counts. Carlos Beltran tried to play through elbow trouble last summer and was never quite right, and he'll go into the 2015 season as something of a mystery, given his age (he turns 38 in April). The Yankees will also use Chris Young and Garrett Jones in right field.

7. Boston Red Sox

Among all the teams in this group, there is probably more uncertainty about who will play in the Red Sox's outfield than any other. But Boston has a lot of really good options for manager John Farrell to choose from. Hanley Ramirez is ticketed for left field after the Red Sox aggressively targeted him. But center field and right field aren't settled. Rusney Castillo is promising and the Red Sox paid big dollars for him, but Mookie Betts thrived in his two-month audition last season; either Castillo or Betts could play center field. The Red Sox also have one year left in their three-year contract with Shane Victorino, who is returning from back surgery, and Boston's front office will bring Victorino into camp and see what he does before determining a course of action. They know this: When Victorino was healthy in 2013, he played Fenway Park's massive right field better than anyone since Dwight Evans. Additionally, they have Daniel Nava, a switch hitter with a high on-base percentage, plus the aforementioned Allen Craig and Jackie Bradley Jr.

There's a lot to sort through, a lot of competition, and in the end, that should turn out to be a good thing for the Red Sox's outfield production.

8. Los Angeles Angels

Mike Trout is widely regarded as MLB's best player, and Kole Calhoun continues to draw attention for his impact at the top of the Angels' lineup; he scored 90 runs in just 127 games. The only reason a trio that includes Trout isn't higher is because nobody -- neither the Angels nor anybody else -- has any idea what Josh Hamilton will contribute. Hamilton, 33, got off to a really nice start in 2014, but in the second half he was a mess, with his OPS plummeting from .822 before the All-Star break to .660 in the second half. He closed the year with 108 strikeouts and 10 homers in 381 plate appearances, and manager Mike Scioscia, as adept as any manager in protecting his players, spoke out about Hamilton's inconsistency.

The irony is that Hamilton's contract is heavily backloaded, and his salary will skyrocket over the next three years, to $25.4 million in 2015, $32.4 million in 2016 and $32.4 million in 2017, for a total of $90.2 million.

 

[iowajerms]

Part 2 of 2

9. San Diego Padres

As a rival evaluator noted, there is a wide range of possible outcomes for San Diego's outfield trio of Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Matt Kemp. It's possible they could match the vision of GM A.J. Preller and hit so well that they overwhelm any concerns about their defense and the large number of strikeouts they'll probably compile. All three possess the transformative power needed to make Petco Park's dimensions look small, and each has reason to open 2015 with a chip on his shoulder. Kemp might want to prove to the Dodgers they made a mistake; Myers is coming off an injury-plagued season that probably helped convince the Rays they needed to move him while they could get decent return; and Upton will be eligible for free agency in the fall, and with a big year, he could put himself in position for a huge payout.

But it's also possible, the evaluator noted, that this combination of outfielders in that particular park won't work. Kemp's injury history scared away other teams (including the Dodgers, in all likelihood), while Myers is being asked to play center field regularly for the first time in pro ball, in one of the largest outfields in the majors. All three might suffer from the overwhelmingly right-handed nature of San Diego's lineup, which will draw right-handers from opposing teams constantly.

The Padres are like a great science experiment. If it works, the front office will get plaudits from all around. If it doesn't, then San Diego might have spent a lot of money that only fuels the cynicism of a frustrated fan base.

10. San Francisco Giants

Over the past seven seasons, Hunter Pence has missed a total of 24 games, which goes a long way in explaining why manager Bruce Bochy lobbied hard for the Giants to sign the right fielder to a long-term deal before he became a free agent. Angel Pagan is the Giants' center fielder, and during the regular season, his presence in the leadoff spot helped San Francisco reach the postseason before he underwent surgery on a bulging disc. The Giants had enough concerns about their outfield depth that they recently signed Norichika Aoki to a one-year, $4.7 million deal. He could share time with Gregor Blanco or Juan Perez in left field.

Aoki could be an option at leadoff if Pagan gets hurt again.

Honorable mention

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun has told reporters his surgically repaired thumb feels better, and if he comes back strong, the Brewers will once again have a couple of All-Star outfielders, with Carlos Gomez already established among the best center fielders in the game.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Joc Pederson gives L.A. a legitimate center fielder, although he could give way to Chris Heisey against left-handed pitchers. Carl Crawford quietly had a good season last year.

Cincinnati Reds: The bet here is that Jay Bruce rebounds from his ugly 2014 season.

New York Mets: Michael Cuddyer missed 32 games in 2013 and 113 games in 2014; when he plays, though, he hits, and the Mets are betting he'll stay healthy. Juan Lagares might be the majors' best defensive outfielder.

Around the league

• Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says he's not pursuing a big-name starting pitcher. In other words, no Max Scherzer, James Shields or Cole Hamels.

• Joe Maddon got a rousing reception from Cubs fans. The Cubs' bleacher seating won't be in place until May, it appears.

• Kevin Long is hurt by the Yankees' decision to fire him, John Harper writes.

• Cubs owner Tom Ricketts joked about the White Sox attendance. Whether it's a coincidence or not, the context is interesting: Ricketts just got a nice appointment from the incoming commissioner, and Jerry Reinsdorf got booted from that inner circle.

AL West

• Things are looking better for the Athletics, writes Bill Madden.

• The Rangers hope to find some middle ground with Mitch Moreland.

• A Rangers prospect could be part of the big league rotation, writes Evan Grant.

• The Angels settled with a couple of their guys.

AL Central

• Brad Ausmus will have some interesting decisions with his lineup, writes Lynn Henning.

• Tyler Collins wants to win a job with the Tigers, writes Anthony Fenech.

• Terry Pluto writes about Terry Francona's love of relievers.

AL East

• For once, the Yankees have been cheaper than the Mets, writes Ken Davidoff.

• Dan Connolly examines the Baltimore payroll.

• Rusney Castillo has been a man on the move, writes Brian MacPherson.

• Some Red Sox rookies went to Harvard.

• Dalton Pompey is ready to assume his role as the Jays' center fielder, writes Mike Rutsey.

• Steve Tolleson wants to win the second base job for the Jays.

• The Rays' moves are meant to balance future and present, writes Marc Topkin. Tampa Bay's offense will be a question, writes Roger Mooney.

NL West

• As the Dodgers' new front office has taken over, the choice has been easy for Don Mattingly.

NL Central

• Starlin Castro is relocating after repeated scary incidents, writes Jesse Rogers.

• Tony Sanchez struggled in winter ball.

• The NL Central test for the Pirates has gotten tougher, writes Rob Biertempfel.

• The Cardinals are courting Jason Heyward this season.

• The Central has gotten tougher for the Reds, writes C. Trent Rosecrans.

• Javier Baez has to earn his playing time next year.

NL East

• Ruben Amaro would like to see a certain top Phillies prospect spend 2015 in the minors.

• Amaro doesn't think there will be any awkwardness with Ryan Howard.

• The groundwork for Jacob deGrom began long ago.

Lastly

• The timelessness of baseball has become less than sacred, writes Tyler Kepner.

• Paul Konerko will be honored.

• Within this piece, there is mention of MLB's new executive committee. It's all about alliances.

• Souvenir ticket stubs have become a thing of the past.

 

[calsnowskier]

Not sure I buy the Giants in the top 10. Not that I can make a big case for another OF, but the way I see it...

Pence - Stud. He belongs as the anchor.

Pagan - Stud, WHEN HE PLAYS. He can really only be counted on for 80-100 games, though, and that almost makes him worthless.

Aoki / Blanco / Ishikawa / Perez - Hodgepodge. Aoki and Blanco are the clear "starters", but both are really more suited as #3.5 or #4 OFers.

If the Giants truly have a top 10 OF in the Majors, than OF is much more barren than I realized.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Says a lot when two OF's carry the third guy to the 4th slot. If Rios bounces back, that is going to really be an electric OF for KC.

 

[DragonfromTO]

My sim league outfield is Cespedes, Springer, Stanton and Saunders. In a 30 team league too. Just need to hope that one of them stays eligible to play CF.

 

[Darkstone42]

That Pirate outfield could really be a dream if Polanco gets anywhere near his potential. His ceiling is apparently somewhere in McCutchen territory. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up being Marte with better discipline this year, but less dynamic on the bases. I mean, even if Polanco falters, it's still really good just because of the other two.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

I'm just wondering where Smith, Venable & Maybin end up??

 

[Clayton]

Holliday/Heyward/Jay should end up being pretty good. It defies the odds that Jay is still on the team with all of the competition he has had over the years but he is one of the most important players on the team going into next year just because he can hit left handed pitching. Last year was the first year he looked really good in the playoffs, too.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm just wondering where Smith, Venable & Maybin end up??

Smith was traded to Seattle a couple weeks ago.