Milk's under-rated/Over rated players on draft day

[HaroldSeattle]

But there is only one first round TE. So of course you can't get a replacement at that level.

I get what you're saying, but it ONLY counts for injury. A RB you pick first can just not be a top 10 option, it happens (McCoy). That is not happening with Gronk. If he plays, you own the best TE bar none.

So your safety is injury safety....which is nearly impossible to predict.
My safety is production projections and Gronk is the absolute safest in that scenario.

And there are WAY, WAY more late rounders at RB/WR that can jump into the top 10 (non-QB) out of nowhere. Not a chance at TE.

Gronk was top TE last year, but 8 RBs put up more points, so you have that to consider.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Again, I too like taking the Gronk risk with my first round pick... But he is far from a safe first round pick... Last year he was 17th in points by a RB/WR/TE.

picking a TE with your first pick, you HAVE to be correct... there is a very short leash because you will be behind the 8 ball in WR and RB... Yes of course it may work out... But the road to success is much harder when picking a TE than RB and WR... You really Need to NAIL the pick...

 

[TKOSpikes]

Gronk was top TE last year, but 8 RBs put up more points, so you have that to consider.

You also have to consider the point difference between Gronk and the 12th TE to that of the top RB and the 12th.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

its the same thing with picking Luck in the first round, if he is not the Best QB, then you lost your advantage, while having a disadvantage everywhere else...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

You also have to consider the point difference between Gronk and the 12th TE to that of the top RB and the 12th.

but he was also a 3rd round pick last season... Now he is a First... Look how Graham owners did last season...

 

[TKOSpikes]

Again, I too like taking the Gronk risk with my first round pick... But he is far from a safe first round pick... Last year he was 17th in points by a RB/WR/TE.

picking a TE with your first pick, you HAVE to be correct... there is a very short leash because you will be behind the 8 ball in WR and RB... Yes of course it may work out... But the road to success is much harder when picking a TE than RB and WR... You really Need to NAIL the pick...

Again. You have to NAIL any 1st rounder. And NAILING Gronk doesn't take a big hammer.

If we all picked the top player at every position, there would be lots of different picks.....except for TE where we'd ALL have Gronk.

 

[TKOSpikes]

but he was also a 3rd round pick last season... Now he is a First... Look how Graham owners did last season...

That's a good point, but I don't consider Graham in Gronk's league. After his shoulder injury and his playoff disappearance, I don't know why anyone considered him in the first. Too many pay for the previous year, IMO (Murray this year).

Gronk being a third round pick was people having your "scared of injury" prep. Which only helps my point. You just can't predict injury.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

You also have to consider the point difference between Gronk and the 12th TE to that of the top RB and the 12th.

OK, just looked it up.
Picking the 13th TE you lose 91 points, picking the13th RB you lose 124 points. Now, this is going off last years stats and things change, but I'd go RB over TE in the first every time.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Okay. You got me on the points. But I stand by my point about him being the easiest to predict to be the beat at his position. And the chances of you hitting gold at RB/WR later is MUCH higher than TE.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Okay. You got me on the points. But I stand by my point about him being the easiest to predict to be the beat at his position. And the chances of you hitting gold at RB/WR later is MUCH higher than TE.

I agree that Gronk looks like a lock, barring injuries at TE. The thing is that TE is not a high scoring position, so going with one in the first round is a over value IMO.

 

[TREFF]

Again. You have to NAIL any 1st rounder. And NAILING Gronk doesn't take a big hammer.

If we all picked the top player at every position, there would be lots of different picks.....except for TE where we'd ALL have Gronk.

I wouldn't. .I'd have Graham

And since I think it's debatable as to which of the two of them have the better season. .I wouldn't take either of them in first. Wouldn't ever tale a TE in the first, but at the same time i totally see the logic in those who do, so I'm not about to argue against it. Just my two cents in this debate.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

just looking at the B suicide rosters and noticed milk took Gronk with his first pick

 

[MilkSpiller22]

just looking at the B suicide rosters and noticed milk took Gronk with his first pick

I said, I like doing that pick...

 

[Clayton]

2. Darren McFadden- I know, he has disappointed us in the past... He has had trouble staying healthy, and has just become the face of failure... BUT he is now on a team with the best offensive line, and only really Joseph Randall to compete with... I don't see Randall as a full time back, so worst comes to worst McFadden should average double digit carries per game... And if that is true, with that offensive line he should be more than serviceable as a Flex option... And if he is the number one there, he should get over 200 carries this season, and he would be a clear number one RB... SOMETIMES you should pay for the situation and NOT the player... and this is the perfect example of that...

3. Joseph Randall- see above

The problem with this logic is that bad players in good situations get replaced really, really quickly. Ive been burned by this before. A player has to be at least 'decent' for me to consider that an option. McFadden has been a replacement level player for a long time. Id avoid him like the plague.

 

[TREFF]

The problem with this logic is that bad players in good situations get replaced really, really quickly. Ive been burned by this before. A player has to be at least 'decent' for me to consider that an option. McFadden has been a replacement level player for a long time. Id avoid him like the plague.

Gotta agree. Had DMC came into OTA's, not missed time, had the coaches gushing about how great he was. ..those types of things, than yeah I'd be on his bandwagon. But those things didn't happen, and they were gushing about the other dude. When they signed DMC, I was hoping he'd get rejuvenated, find something similar to what he was at the start of the 2012 season, but that gets further and further away. I wouldn't touch him either

 

[SmokingMonkey]

What's that smell??

Oh yea, it's a lot of open running lanes for Frank Gore as teams desperately try to contain Luck and all these WRs:

The Colts are expected to "spread the field" with more "three- and four-receiver formations" this season.

It's the natural evolution for Indianapolis after the team invested big money in Andre Johnson and a first-round pick in Phillip Dorsett, with T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief already on the roster. The biggest loser figures to be No. 2 tight end Coby Fleener, whose playing time seems certain to drop. Dwayne Allen's role should be secure because he is so valuable as a blocker, an especially necessary attribute on a team with a sub-par offensive line.


Source: Indy Sports Central
Jul 9 - 3:44 PM

 

[Across The Field]

UNDERRATED:
Frank Gore, RB IND: I'm certainly not advocating taking him in the first 3 rounds, but he's going to be in the type of wide-open offense that should allow him to break off some nice runs and not have to be as much of a between the tackles hammer. Also, this was an offense that saw Dan Herron get 8 catches in a playoff game. Gore could very well return top-10 value this season...assuming he can stay reasonably healthy.

Julius Thomas, TE JAX: Is he going to put up 12 TDs or so again this year? Not likely. Is he going to get a ton of targets? Very likely. One of the best friends that a young, growing QB can have is a sturdy set of hands at TE that he can rely on. If a guy like Clay Harbor can get 35 targets on this team, you can safely expect significantly more for this playmaker

Vincent Jackson, WR TB: Last season, Jackson somehow managed 1000 receiving yards despite only have 55% of throws be deemed "catchable", per Pro Football Focus. While he isn't exactly getting Aaron Rodgers behind center, you have to imagine Jameis Winston will be an immediate upgrade over McCown/Glennon. With a RB situation still in flux, Jackson could return much better value than his current round 6 ADP.


OVERRATED:
Demarco Murray, RB PHI: I don't see how it's possible he turns in a year like last year. It would be absolutely otherworldly for that to happen. He isn't running behind the best OL in the league anymore, and this is quite a different offense. Scheme, weather, time, it all seems to be going against Murray. He's being picked in the late 1st/early 2nd, and it's very possible he busts worse than any early round RB.

Travis Kelce, TE KC: I'm seeing him drafted as high as the snake at 3/4. This is unreal to me. Sure, he's reliable, and he got a solid amount of catchable targets last year (71). That said, Jeremy Maclin is now the man in KC. Kelce is young and talented, no denying that. However, being drafted that high is really jumping the gun.

Odell Beckham, Jr, WR NYG: He's insanely talented, but he's currently rated as the 4th best WR in the league, which is far too high at this point. The same hammy that hobbled him is hobbling him again, and those can be long-term nagging injuries that result in time off. Is he worth a high pick? Absolutely. Is he worth being drafted over the likes of Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, and many others? Absolutely not.

 

[broncosmitty]

I said, I like doing that pick...

And debating yourself, right?

 

[TREFF]

Odell Beckham, Jr, WR NYG: He's insanely talented, but he's currently rated as the 4th best WR in the league, which is far too high at this point. The same hammy that hobbled him is hobbling him again, and those can be long-term nagging injuries that result in time off. Is he worth a high pick? Absolutely. Is he worth being drafted over the likes of Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, and many others? Absolutely not.

I say absolutely yes. .with only Julio Jones even a shadow of doubt in my mind

 

[Across The Field]

I say absolutely yes. .with only Julio Jones even a shadow of doubt in my mind

Ok