March Madness upset specials opening round

[SpartyNash13]

Xavier is garbage?

Sparty can't even close out games it has entirely won. If you guys had won that game, you'd probably be a 5 seed and not complaining about how Xavier is overseeded.

Oh, and not having to face a powerful UVA team in the 3rd round.

Good one...

Even if MSU won that game and moved to a 5 seed (they wouldn't have), I would still complain because Xavier being a 6 is still garbage. 9-9 in an average conference, 13 losses overall, losses to UTEP, LBSU, Auburn, DePaul, Creighton, Seton Hall. good wins were GTown, Butler twice, Providence. Not enough to warrant a 6 seed.

 

[Cyder]

I got:
13 Eastern Washington over 4s Georgetown
12 Wofford over 5 Arkansas
11 Texas over 6 Butler
9 Purdue over 8 Cincy
9 Saint Johns over 8 San Diego St.

Every one of my upsets came through last year (I was 30/32...missed Duke losing and Dayton winning). It likely means I'm gonna fail this year since brackets are cyclical.

I'm with ya on E. Washginton and Woford. STaying away from the 8/9's, don't really consider them upsets. Especially with St Johns just losing a player to suspension

I'm also going with

12 SF Austin over Utah (And then beating E Washington).
11 UCLA over 6 SMU
11 Texas over 6 Butler

 

[WhiteMamba]

I think SMu is legit.

Possible Sweet 16 team.

I think they have best 3 seed in pod though.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Wofford FTW!!!

 

[Arizona_Sting]

Everyone picking SF Austin is just saying that because Seth Davis said he thinks they could make the Sweet 16 on the bracketology show. LOL. Utah will handle them. Every year I love when people try to act like experts and make picks like that. Utah is a bad matchup for them and I expect them to win by 15+.

Not saying an upset isn't possible, but always avoid the "popular" upset picks because those almost always never happen. It's the ones that you don't expect to happen that actually do.

 

[rmilia1]

I really like Wofford over Arkansas, metrics support that as the BEST upset special ( of 12 or lower seeds ), Eastern Washington has the next best odds followed by SFA over Utah. Personally the game I see as interesting is one that very few people are picking which is Belmont over UVA. This game has the 5th best upset odds and I would actually bump it up a little because UVA hasnt fully integrated Andersen back in to the lineup and I feel like he may actually be hurting them at this point. Belmont is chalk full of shooters so IF the Bruins can shoot it reasonably well I see a distinct possibility that they win.

 

[Smart]

I love the Lumberjacks and picked them to the Sweet 16 last year (of course, they delivered a Round 1 win but got clobbered Round 2). I love the fact that they have nine guys that get heavy minutes, and all of them are decent. Mid-majors aren't supposed to be that deep. Everyone on that team can shoot and Jacob Parker could play anywhere.

However, Utah's on another level. They are a top 10 KenPom team. They might have the best PG in America. They have size. Austin's nine man rotation has one guy over 6'6. Utah starts a 6'8 guy and a 7 footer.

I don't think Utah is a good candidate to go down early. I go the opposite way with Utah. I have them going to the Sweet 16 in my main bracket and the national championship game in the chaos bracket. The only seven teams with a better KenPom are the top seven teams on the overall line. They are that good.

 

[WhiteMamba]

Everyone picking SF Austin is just saying that because Seth Davis said he thinks they could make the Sweet 16 on the bracketology show. LOL. Utah will handle them. Every year I love when people try to act like experts and make picks like that. Utah is a bad matchup for them and I expect them to win by 15+.

Not saying an upset isn't possible, but always avoid the "popular" upset picks because those almost always never happen. It's the ones that you don't expect to happen that actually do.

Or it could have to do with the fact they won as a 12 last year.

 

[The Derski]

Every year everyone seems to jump on one upset bandwagon together and this year it's Stephen F Austin over Utah. I Think Utah is going to dismantle them.

 

[The Derski]

I remember a couple years ago it was Belmont over Arizona in the first round. Arizona cruised to a victory in that one.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

Or it could have to do with the fact they won as a 12 last year.

Yeah, against a VCU team that (last year) wasn't as complete of a team as an under seeded Utah team. Not taking that win away from them last year, but VCU had tons of holes and looked like a weak 5 seed anyways.

I just don't see Utah having any trouble with them, they have size and depth along with Delon Wright who can carry a team alone. If they do end up getting upset then feel free to bring this back up and shit on me if you'd like. I just think Utah is a bad, bad matchup for SFA.

 

[The Derski]

My upset will be BYU winning the play in game then beating Xavier.

 

[WhiteMamba]

@Arizona_Sting no reason to shit on anybody.

I have Utah.

But I am hoping for chaos in the Portland pods.

VCU vs OhioST
EWU vs Gtown
SFA vs Utes

 

[Arizona_Sting]

My upset will be BYU winning the play in game then beating Xavier.

If they get by the play-in game then I agree. BYU is such a scary team… so many shooters and a solid big man plus that triple double machine dude Collinsworth. They could be a cinderella type team this year if they get hot.

 

[SJ76]

Even if MSU won that game and moved to a 5 seed (they wouldn't have), I would still complain because Xavier being a 6 is still garbage. 9-9 in an average conference, 13 losses overall, losses to UTEP, LBSU, Auburn, DePaul, Creighton, Seton Hall. good wins were GTown, Butler twice, Providence. Not enough to warrant a 6 seed.

Yeah that is GAR-Baj

 

[SteelersPride]

the trendy pick is stephen austin by media and fans, so they will lose

 

[ralphiewvu]

Sadly I believe there won't be many but the one I would bet on is buffalo over wvu. WVU offense is atrociously bad. We will need to hope buffalo can't hit shots because it will be almost a sure thing we will be on more then one scoring draught. Sigh......

 

[uncfan103]

BYU/Ole Miss is an upset lock of the century, Xavier is flat out garbage and it is a joke they are a 6 seed with 13 losses in an overrated conference.

I was leaning hard towards Stephen F Austin over Utah but the Utes simply lock down like no other. My only 12 over 5 is Buffalo over West Virginia, you pretty much have to pick at least one a year so this isn't a confident pick of mine.

When it comes to predicting a perfect bracket, yes you need a 12 over 5. If you're trying to win your office pool or bracket challenge or whatever you do not need a 12 over 5. If there is one 12-5 upset and it's not the one you picked you've missed two games instead of one. If you pick the wrong two you've missed all four games. And the problem with that is 5 seeds have a better chance of reaching a sweet sixteen, causing another one of your games to be wrong.

 

[uncfan103]

The top 4 lines are fairly strong this year but some tidbits from what I've actually seen.

I saw N. Dakota State play and I think Gonzaga is going to destroy them. Robert Morris was correctly seeded as a 16. They looked horrible.

Everybody is picking G'town to lose because they think they are overseeded and uneven (they are). I think they are one of the least likely teams to get upset. They have size, length, and can throw teams around.

I don't know that much about Baylor, though I have seen them play a couple of times. Georgia State I have seen play since last year. They have an NBA player, and a couple of blue chips. They haven't translated that into a great team but it's worth watching.

Everybody and their dog is picking Texas over Butler. 2 teams that I have seen a ton. I think Butler will win that game. Texas is a bad team, and Butler will not beat itself. If Texas was just able to flex it's muscles and win games, they'd have won a lot more of them.

I agree with most of these. The bold is especially true. This is the best team Gonzaga has and it's the most favorable days they've gotten. They won't be overmatched athletically until the sweet 16, and that should bode well for them.

 

[SpartyNash13]

When it comes to predicting a perfect bracket, yes you need a 12 over 5. If you're trying to win your office pool or bracket challenge or whatever you do not need a 12 over 5. If there is one 12-5 upset and it's not the one you picked you've missed two games instead of one. If you pick the wrong two you've missed all four games. And the problem with that is 5 seeds have a better chance of reaching a sweet sixteen, causing another one of your games to be wrong.

Very true regarding pools. I think I am about 50% on my 12 over 5 picks through the years. Not sure how many times the 5 has ended up advancing deep to hurt me further. Pools do affect the way I pick many times. In 2013 I remember everyone I talked to picking Louisville, Kansas, or Indiana it seemed. I went on a limb and picked 3 seed Florida, they were highly ranked on kenpom and because I knew if they went to the Final or won I would be damn near golden. It backfired when they lost to Michigan in the EE though.