- Thread starter
- #1
Omar 382
Well-Known Member
- 16,827
- 1,166
- 173
- Joined
- Jul 17, 2013
- Hoopla Cash
- $ 1,000.00
- Fav. Team #1
- Fav. Team #2
- Fav. Team #3
Maikel Franco has been bad this year; not Ryan Howard bad, but still pretty bad. His defense has been better, with a -1.8 UZR/150 this year vs. a -7.6 mark last year. It's been his hitting that has been so bad. That's not really debatable. It is a fact that he is hitting .243/.285/.428 with an 83 wRC+ and a .301 wOBA. It is a fact that those numbers make him a very bad hitter in the league today. What isn't a fact and what has to be determined is whether he can turn things around. The answer of course is that yes, it's possible that he will turn things around; but is it likely? Let's take a look.
Based on research done by sabermetrician Russell Carleton, it can be determined at what point statistics become stabilized. In statistics, it's known as measure reliability, in which if we took the same measure over and over again, we would get the same (or similar) results. Here are the normalization rates for different statistics for hitters:
60 PA: Strikeout rate
120 PA: Walk rate
240 PA: HBP rate
290 PA: Single rate
1610 PA: XBH rate
170 PA: HR rate
910 AB: AVG
460 PA: OBP
320 AB: SLG
160 AB: ISO
80 BIP: GB rate
80 BIP: FB rate
600 BIP: LD rate
50 FBs: HR per FB
820 BIP: BABIP
Maikel Franco has 165 PA and 106 BIP this year, so we can look at strikeout rate, walk rate, ISO, HR/FB %, FB rate, and GB rate. Well, they first three are shit. 5.5% walk rate and a 18.8% K rate. The .184 ISO isn't horrendous per se, but for someone who is supposed to be a power hitting corner infielder, it's pretty fucking subpar. His other three aren't bad, with all of them being equal to or better than last year.
Let's look at the fucking awesome feature of Statcast. He's 54th among qualified hitters in Avg FB/LD EV at 95.7 MPH. As I stated before, I believe Avg FB/LD EV is the most important part of success for hitters; hard hit ground balls have a higher propensity for double plays. 54th may not seem awful, but the Phillies are third in baseball at average fastball velocity faced, which obviously impacts EV. Furthermore, 54th isn't really great. The 54th best player has a 1.1 WAR, not awful, but when you think of the velocity the Phillies have faced, it's not very good.
The last problem I see is his inability to adjust to pitchers' adjustments. Regarding where he's been pitched this year, his lowest EV by far is down and away, at 75.3 MPH, which is where he's getting pitched by the largest percentage, 23% (the next closest is low and inside at 15.8%). He can't hit the low and away pitch, and he's going to need to learn to lay off (he's still swinging at 14.5% of those pitches) or learn to hit them.
Lastly, I think our idea of Franco was way too high. People forget that he did only put up a 1.5 WAR in 335 PA last year. It's not like he was Barry Bonds.
One last things; here are Maikel Franco in 2016 and Domonic Brown in 2014
Maikel Franco (2016): .243/.285/.428 with an 83 wRC+ and a .301 wOBA. 5.5% BB% and 18.8% K%
Domonic Brown (2014): .235/.285/.349 with a 75 wRC+ and a .280 wOBA. 6.6% BB% and a 17.8% K%
Based on research done by sabermetrician Russell Carleton, it can be determined at what point statistics become stabilized. In statistics, it's known as measure reliability, in which if we took the same measure over and over again, we would get the same (or similar) results. Here are the normalization rates for different statistics for hitters:
60 PA: Strikeout rate
120 PA: Walk rate
240 PA: HBP rate
290 PA: Single rate
1610 PA: XBH rate
170 PA: HR rate
910 AB: AVG
460 PA: OBP
320 AB: SLG
160 AB: ISO
80 BIP: GB rate
80 BIP: FB rate
600 BIP: LD rate
50 FBs: HR per FB
820 BIP: BABIP
Maikel Franco has 165 PA and 106 BIP this year, so we can look at strikeout rate, walk rate, ISO, HR/FB %, FB rate, and GB rate. Well, they first three are shit. 5.5% walk rate and a 18.8% K rate. The .184 ISO isn't horrendous per se, but for someone who is supposed to be a power hitting corner infielder, it's pretty fucking subpar. His other three aren't bad, with all of them being equal to or better than last year.
Let's look at the fucking awesome feature of Statcast. He's 54th among qualified hitters in Avg FB/LD EV at 95.7 MPH. As I stated before, I believe Avg FB/LD EV is the most important part of success for hitters; hard hit ground balls have a higher propensity for double plays. 54th may not seem awful, but the Phillies are third in baseball at average fastball velocity faced, which obviously impacts EV. Furthermore, 54th isn't really great. The 54th best player has a 1.1 WAR, not awful, but when you think of the velocity the Phillies have faced, it's not very good.
The last problem I see is his inability to adjust to pitchers' adjustments. Regarding where he's been pitched this year, his lowest EV by far is down and away, at 75.3 MPH, which is where he's getting pitched by the largest percentage, 23% (the next closest is low and inside at 15.8%). He can't hit the low and away pitch, and he's going to need to learn to lay off (he's still swinging at 14.5% of those pitches) or learn to hit them.
Lastly, I think our idea of Franco was way too high. People forget that he did only put up a 1.5 WAR in 335 PA last year. It's not like he was Barry Bonds.
One last things; here are Maikel Franco in 2016 and Domonic Brown in 2014
Maikel Franco (2016): .243/.285/.428 with an 83 wRC+ and a .301 wOBA. 5.5% BB% and 18.8% K%
Domonic Brown (2014): .235/.285/.349 with a 75 wRC+ and a .280 wOBA. 6.6% BB% and a 17.8% K%
