Lionstop speaks: Off-season prediction pt 1

[Rollingthndr]

He might be gone by our second.

Depends on his 40. If he runs in the 4.3's. I'd take him in the first. Can't coach world class speed.

According to wiki. He is an inch shorter and 7lbs heavier than Jahvid.

Jahvid Best - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Duke Johnson - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[lionstop1]

Oh, so you would consider a RB in the first, Rolling?

 

[tpaulus_2]

So what about this Yao?

We trade back 10 spots, pick up an extra 2nd rounder, draft Gurley at #33 and then Duke Johnson with the other 2nd rounder we picked up. Land two of the top 4 RBs in the draft and suddenly we're 3 deep with every down backs and have the pass-catching Riddick as the #4.

I'd ride Joique hard next year and use Johnson in the Bush role; let Gurley fully heal, start him out on the PUP and maybe get him some light work late in the year. Basically ride the older vet and ease the rookies in. Then flip that ratio in 2016 and make Gurley/Johnson the lead combo with Bell chewing up some of the 4th quarter carries to spare the pounding on the younger backs. I'd also use Johnson as the PR/KR and let Ross go free.

Some people might stroke out taking RBs with our 1st two picks, but if we essentially turned pick #23 into Gurley and Johnson, I don't think anyone would complain. We could even trade back 10 spots and still have a shot at Coleman or Gordon, to be honest. I wouldn't bank on both guys being there at #33, but one might.

It would be a bold move to be sure, but we'd be deep and young at RB. Use the 3rd round pick on a guard or tackle and the running game should make a big jump in production next year.

I'm not married to the idea, but it's not too crazy to consider, imo, either...

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

I'm not married to the idea, but it's not too crazy to consider, imo, either...

Yes it is. No RB is going to have any success until we fix the o-line. If Warford doesn't return to his rookie form we don't have one above average player on the line? That's not the recipe for success that makes drafting two early round RB's a good idea.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Yes it is. No RB is going to have any success until we fix the o-line. If Warford doesn't return to his rookie form we don't have one above average player on the line? That's not the recipe for success that makes drafting two early round RB's a good idea.

Agree 110%. It doesn't matter if a guy runs a 4.3 if he doesn't have a hole to run through. Detroit's issues on offense started and ended with the OL last year. They struggled in pass protection and run blocking. We have more than enough weapons on offense. We had not one, but two WR's in the Pro Bowl. We have 2 1st round picks at TE and another one who had 7 tds as a rookie. Bell can handle the load next year and Detroit definitely doesn't need to spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on a change of pace back.

I guess it all depends on the FA period. If they fix the OL and salvage the DT position -- they can take chances in the draft. If they lose Suh and Fairley, as well as Ravioli and Sims -- I hope the first few picks solidify the trenches on offense and defense.

 

[lionstop1]

TP, I thought you were joking at first until I read the whole thing. I would be fine with that idea.

 

[lionstop1]

In assuming the oline will be fixed somehow but it doesn't have to be from the draft alone. You guys keep thinking that taking linemen first is the only way to get it done.

 

[Quackerjacked]

Wait, when did Reiff stop being above average?

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

Wait, when did Reiff stop being above average?

That depends on when he started being above average?

 

[Naughtymax]

Charges against Greg Hardy just dropped. Sign him at a discount, maybe he misses 4 games, and shift Jones inside on passing downs. I'd be stoked if we miss out on Suh but pick up Hardy and a FA DT and extend our LB corps with the cap space.

 

[tpaulus_2]

I'd pass on Hardy. He's a thug's thug by the sounds of it. Any dude who beats up his girl and throws her down on a bed full of guns to intimidate her probably will be in more trouble, and thussly suspended again, before very long.


Just my opinion, though... he's certainly a very talented DE...

 

[Rollingthndr]

Oh, so you would consider a RB in the first, Rolling?

If he is a sure fire stud. I liked Gurley a lot before the knee injury. I also like Gordon from Wisconsin in the first. There was a time when he, Ball and James White(currently with NE) were all in the same backfield and I could tell right away Gordon was considerably better than those two.

I have Duke Johnson as my #3 and a solid 2nd rounder. I think he will run around 4.45 but if he runs 4.35 or lower, he should be taken in the first.

I'm sorry, just not as high on the kid from Indiana as most, no offense. He runs upright and doesn't seem to have a lot of wiggle or juke to his game. The kid can hit a hole and carry a lot of steam through it but doesn't seem to create a lot in terms of lateral agility.

Johnson has more burst and lateral agility. But the kid from Indiana has more power and size. His 40 time will be one of the more interesting cases for me in the draft.

 

[Rollingthndr]

We could always wait a couple years on Henry from ALA.

That guy is the truth.

 

[Microwahevo]

We could always wait a couple years on Henry from ALA.

That guy is the truth.

Was pissed he chose Bama over ND. Watched a bunch of his HS highlights and knew he'd be a monster.

Sidenote: What's Barry Jr. up to these days?

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Melvin Gordon - RB - Badgers
The MMQB's Greg A. Bedard does not think Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon III is a first-round talent "right now."

"There’s just one thing Gordon is lacking at this time: three-down ability," Bedard writes, adding Gordon III was frequently taken off the field in passing situations. MGIII did show a "willingness" when allowed to pass protect, but was not asked to recognize blitzers and does not "possess natural feel in space as a receiver." As far as running with the football, Bedard says the Badger can be "breathtaking." We think there is a considerable gap between Gurley and the next group of ball carriers, and Gurley fits more in a clump of other runners than in first-round consideration.


Source: The MMQB
Feb 24 - 10:18 AM

http://www.rotoworld.com/sports/cfb/nfl-draft?rw=1

BB_72... I'm seeing more Mocks with Gordon going to us lately. and Gordon was wearing a Lions cap at combine. I still think Gordon is more of a wiggle/burst outside runner than a well rounded rb
http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2015/02/24/usa-today-sports-nfl-mock-draft/23922527/
http://www.drafttek.com/2015-NFL-Mock-Draft-Round1b.asp

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

We could always wait a couple years on Henry from ALA.

That guy is the truth.

He'll more than likely be coming out for the draft next year, 2016. Kid is a powerhouse runner.

 

[lionstop1]

I'd say he's a good bet to end up in Detroit if available. I think he must be a Lions fan too because he wears Lions hats all the time.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Speed Score results from the 2015 NFL scouting combine suggest that this is a good year for running back prospects, but by no means a historic one. One of this year's top prospects impressed, one did not. We now have a surprising sleeper with the top Speed Score of this year's combine, and another player so slow he pretty much disqualified himself from being considered draftable.

Let's take a look at this year's results:


Introduced on ESPN Insider back in 2008, Speed Score is Football Outsiders' metric for evaluating running back prospects. It's built on the simple idea that because smaller backs tend to run faster than larger backs, we should be more impressed by a 4.5-second 40-yard dash from a 220-pound back than the same clock reading from a 170-pound back. As such, Speed Score incorporates a back's official time in the 40-yard dash with his weight to produce a measure of his speed given his size using the formula (Weight * 200)/(40 time^4). The average running back who makes it to the NFL will have a Speed Score around 100, with most running back prospects falling between 85 and 110. And since there are more running backs in the prospect pool each year than there are spaces in the NFL, there are more running backs each year under 100 than over 100.

Obviously, Speed Score is not a perfect measurement. It doesn't account for a back's agility, or his ability to read holes, or his receiving ability. Nonetheless, it has been a good guide as to which running backs are likely to have more or less success in the NFL based on their draft positions.

Any excitement over this year's Speed Scores is at least somewhat dimmed by the fact that two of Scouts Inc.'s top four prospects did not run the 40 at the combine. So unfortunately, we don't have a Speed Score for either Todd Gurley of Georgia or Tevin Coleman of Indiana. But we do have scores for the other two backs expected to go early: Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin and Ameer Abdullah of Nebraska.

Gordon puts up a solid number

Gordon ran his 40 in 4.52 seconds at 215 pounds, for a Speed Score of 103.0. That ended up as the fifth-highest score in this year's class, though it certainly doesn't match the average score of a first-round running back over the past decade, which is around 110.

Abdullah's size-speed combo a disappointment

The same can't be said of Abdullah, who ran his 40 in 4.60 seconds. At 205 pounds, he's one of the smaller backs in this year's draft. That leads to a Speed Score of just 91.6, which pegs Abdullah as a lower-round pick. However, I will note that what Abdullah doesn't have in terms of straight-line speed, he makes up for in agility. Abdullah's short shuttle time of 3.95 seconds was the best among halfbacks at this year's combine, and his three-cone time of 6.79 seconds was near the top (and compares well to Gordon's time of 7.04 seconds). Other researchers have suggested that a Speed Score that incorporated these drills would be a better predictor of NFL success, and such a system would certainly rate Abdullah as a better prospect.
FSU's Williams could be the RB class' top sleeper

The best Speed Score of the 2015 combine belongs to a sleeper prospect, Karlos Williams of Florida State. Williams ran a 4.48 40 at 230 pounds, and his Speed Score of 114.2 was the only one above 110 at this year's combine. Williams is a favorite of Football Outsiders scouting writer Matt Waldman, who covered Williams in this piece, and he's the brother of Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Vince Williams. Karlos is a former five-star recruit who played safety originally, then gradually transitioned to running back in his 2013 junior season, averaging 8.0 yards per carry (730 yards and 11 touchdowns on only 91 carries). However, he disappointed a bit with only 4.6 yards per carry as a full-time running back in 2014, and has had some off-the-field issues that teams will need to consider.

NIU's Johnson and MSU's Langford are also worth a look

Other top Speed Scores this season belonged to Northern Iowa's David Johnson (109.3, Scouts Inc.'s No. 12 RB prospect) and Michigan State's Jeremy Langford (109.0, Scouts Inc.'s No. 9 RB prospect). Speed Scores the past couple years have actually backed the movement away from drafting running backs in the first round. Remember how I noted that the average Speed Score of a first-round back is around 110? Only two backs at last year's combine topped a Speed Score of 110 (Damien Williams and Jerick McKinnon), and Karlos Williams was the only player to do it this year.

Bad news for CSU's Hart

On the bottom of this year's list is Dee Hart of Colorado State, who ran the 40 at just 4.80 seconds despite weighing less than 200 pounds, for a Speed Score of 75.0. Hart is only the third pure halfback since 2009 with a Speed Score below 80.0; Robbie Rouse of Fresno State and Ray Graham of Pitt are the other two, both from the 2013 combine, and both went undrafted. (Dexter McCluster also put up a Speed Score of 75.0 back in 2010, but he's a wide receiver/halfback hybrid, and at 165 pounds, he was more than 30 pounds lighter than Hart.)

Hart wasn't a highly regarded prospect, by any means -- Scouts Inc.'s running back rankings have him 23rd in this year's class -- but his 40 performance should scare away any team that was thinking of using even a late-round pick on him.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2015 Speed Scores
Player.......................School...................Weight........40 YD.........Speed
Karlos Williams............Florida State..............230............ 4.48............ 114.2
David Johnson.............Northern Iowa............224.............4.50.............109.3
Jeremy Langford..........Michigan State............208.............4.42............109.0
Javorius Allen..............USC...........................221.............4.53............105.0
Melvin Gordon.............Wisconsin...................215.............4.52............103.0
Matt Jones..................Florida........................231.............4.61............102.3
Jay Ajayi....................Boise State..................221.............4.57............101.3
Cameron Artis-Payne...Auburn.......................212..............4.53............100.7
T.J. Yeldon.................Alabama.....................226..............4.61............100.1
Michael Dyer...............Louisville....................218..............4.58.............99.1
Malcolm Brown............Texas........................224...............4.62............98.3
Duke Johnson..............Miami........................207..............4.54.............97.4
Mike Davis..................South Carolina............217..............4.61.............96.1
Trey Williams..............Texas A&M.................195...............4.49.............96.0
John Crockett..............North Dakota State......217..............4.62.............95.3
Thomas Rawls.............Central Michigan..........215..............4.65.............92.0
Ameer Abdullah...........Nebraska....................205..............4.60.............91.6
Josh Robinson.............Mississippi State..........217..............4.70..............88.9
Gus Johnson...............Stephen F. Austin.........215..............4.70..............88.1
Braylon Heard.............Kentucky....................198...............4.63..............86.2
Marcus Murphy............Missouri.....................193...............4.61..............85.5
B.J. Catalon................TCU...........................186...............4.57..............85.3
Kenny Hilliard.............LSU............................226..............4.83...............83.1
Jahwan Edwards.........Ball State....................220...............4.80..............82.9
Dee Hart....................Colorado State............199...............4.80..............75.0


Did not run 40: Dominique Brown, David Cobb, Tevin Coleman, Todd Gurley, Terrence Magee.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Here you go Thunder, some comments about Gurley, which are very similar to your statements yesterday

What's next for Detroit Lions at running back with Reggie Bush gone?

Johnson and Abdullah are the best facsimiles of what Bush gave to the Lions the last two years, but ESPN analyst Todd McShay said no back in the class has an all-around game that compares to Gurley.

"Based off of the tape before the injury, I thought Gurley was the best back in the class," McShay said in a teleconference this week. "He's just an absolute freight train as a runner, one cut and go. Lowers his shoulder. He's like Marshawn Lynch, he just breaks through so many one-on-one tackles, and then what separates him from a lot of other big backs, two areas, really, one is the top-end speed which it's an elite – we overuse that word, but it is an elite combination of size and speed. And then the second part is his pass catching ability, which nobody seems to talk about but I was blown away by how comfortable and natural he is catching the football, adjusting to the ball, transitioning from catching the ball and getting up the field quickly, and if you give him some daylight, it's over. It's lights out. Once he gets going, the momentum gets going, he's got just rare top-end speed for that size."