Lions 2021 off-season FA. Something for nothing or nothing at all ?

[Gulf of Brazil]

Williams, Trufant, Shelton, and Jones would need to show a lot of improvement before they will sign anything that might generate a pick.

It's not about any of them signing for a significant amount. It's about the totality of those players numerically combined. Coleman could possibly receive a decent contract. Hell, washed up CB are getting 5-7M in some instances.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Should J. Coleman be cut, I wouldn't mind adding LAR Slot CB Troy Hill but he'd probably be a wash on salary cap savings from Coleman and signing him (roughly 5M for Hill). That would negate any possible advantage of hoping Coleman signing elsewhere would give us a late round comp pick (i.e. 5th, 6th or 7th round).

Probably better off keeping Coleman one more year then giving him his walking papers.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2021 NFL Free Agency: Most underrated free agent at every position | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

CORNERBACK: TROY HILL​

Projected contract: Two years, $10.5 million ($7.25 million guaranteed)​

Slot corner is one of the most important positions in the game, and there are so many top-tier options available in this year's free agency class. Seven of the 11 highest-graded slot corners in coverage over the last two years are set to be free agents and are projected to have a cap hit of $6 million or less in 2021.

The cream of the crop is Troy Hill of the Los Angeles Rams. His two-year slot coverage grade of 89.8 is the best in the NFL, and he ranks 16th among all cornerbacks in WAR over that span. The latter mark is just ahead of starting outside corners Tre’Davious White and Kyle Fuller, who are being paid $17.25 million and $14 million per year on average, respectively. Yet, Hill is projected to receive $5.25 million per year with his next deal.

Nickel is the new base defense in this day and age, and defending the slot is one of the most difficult jobs on the field. In a class full of quality options at the cornerback position, Hill could very well be the biggest prize of them all.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I was talking to @broncosmitty early on in January about bringing in LAR Slot CB Troy Hill and LAR SS John Johnson lll.

The latter would cost somewhere around 10M per on a 4-5 year contract. That type of signing would probably be dead in the water by the time the team could become competitive for a division title and would kill any possibility of 2022 comp picks.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

No idea what it would take to get Ioannidis, but I have to think he can be got.

I like that idea. Big DE type 5/4i - tech.
He shouldn't be anything more than a late day 3 pick would be a guess. (5th or 6th ? IDK) He's a proven player.
WFT is stacked on that defensive front.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2021 Free Agency: Ranking the NFL's top 150 free agents | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

Prediction: Lions franchise tag Kenny Golladay for 2021, and a deal is not reached before the season starts.

Otherwise: Giants sign Golladay for four years, $85 million ($21.25M APY): $57.5 million total guaranteed, $37.5 million fully guaranteed.

Kenny Golladay Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

Market Value​

• 5 yrs, $85,006,560
• Avg. Salary: $17,001,312
• NFL Rank: 46
• WR Rank: 7

BB_72; No Thank You on any type of re-signing KG. 50/50 contested WR can be had in any draft or UFA for much less than that amount. KG's career YPR is statistically better than that of Godwin or Robinson.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2021 Free Agency: Ranking the NFL's top 150 free agents | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

96. EDGE ROMEO OKWARA

After over 1,000 snaps of below-average production as a pass-rusher, Okwara finished like a ball of fire with the No. 3 pass-rush grade among edge defenders since Week 12. That stretch run was great, and it capped a career year that saw him post an 85.4 pass-rush grade, ninth-best in the league. If he’s truly figured something out, Okwara is worth a shot as a No. 2 pass-rusher, but perspective is needed given the 4.5 years of average play prior to his half-season of dominance.

Contract Analysis: It’s never an exact science when determining whether a player has truly turned a corner in their career or just had a lucky stretch of play, but Okwara & Co. will certainly argue the former is the case here.

Prediction: Detroit signs Okwara for three years, $19.5 million ($6.5M APY): $10M total guaranteed, $7 million fully guaranteed at signing.

Romeo Okwara Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

Market Value​

• 3 yrs, $30,300,609
• Avg. Salary: $10,100,203
• NFL Rank: 171
• DE Rank: 20

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2021 NFL free agency preview: 5 wide receivers with ties to the Detroit Lions - Pride Of Detroit

Josh Reynolds
Josh Reynolds Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com (pro-football-reference.com)

Sammy Watkins............. Nope, too much money and injury prone
Sammy Watkins Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com (pro-football-reference.com)

Demarcus Robinson
Demarcus Robinson Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com (pro-football-reference.com)

Chris Godwin................. Has concentration issues and drops were persistent in 2020
Chris Godwin Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com (pro-football-reference.com)

Taywan Taylor................ He's shown nothing since coming out of CFB
Taywan Taylor Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com (pro-football-reference.com)

BB_72; not mentioned above

Rashard Higgins
Rashard Higgins Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com (pro-football-reference.com)

Curtis Samuel
Curtis Samuel Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com (pro-football-reference.com)

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2021 Free Agency: Ranking the NFL's top 150 free agents | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

128. WR JOSH REYNOLDS​

The Rams turned to Josh Reynolds when one of their primary receivers was out due to injury, and thanks to playoff runs, he has been on the field for at least 750 snaps in two of the past three seasons. His grades have been remarkably consistent — in the 60s — but rarely has he looked like a true difference-maker as opposed to simply a bit-part depth player.

Contract Analysis: Reynolds has a large body of work for teams to break down on film as a result of playing in Sean McVay’s 11-personnel-dominant scheme, but nothing about his play jumps off the tape. Teams do value a safe, reliable player who they know what they’ll get from every week. With just four drops on 165 targets over the past three seasons, Reynolds is a safe bet as a depth wideout.

Prediction: Reynolds signs for two years, $8.5 million ($4.25M APY), $5 million total guaranteed.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

could be a possible cheap option at CB should Dallas not re-sign him

2021 Free Agency: Ranking the NFL's top 150 free agents | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

149. CB JOURDAN LEWIS​

A former third-round pick, Lewis’ career got off to a promising start, but he’s coming off a career-low 48.1 overall grade. His previous two full seasons saw him grade at 72.0 as a rookie and 68.7 in Year 3 with an injury-laden year in between, so there’s hope that Lewis can get back on track. While most of Lewis’ snaps have come in the slot, he’s graded better on the outside, where his coverage grade ranks 38th out of 103 qualifiers since 2017.

Contract Analysis: Lewis undoubtedly had a down 2020 season, but the cornerback position is subject to extreme variance, and the Cowboys' defense as a whole struggled for much of the season.

Prediction: Lewis signs for one year, $2.25 million, $1.5 million total guaranteed.

Jourdan Lewis Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com (pro-football-reference.com)

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2021 Free Agency: Ranking the NFL's top 150 free agents | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

101. WR RASHARD HIGGINS​

A lack of blazing speed and elite measurables means that Higgins is typically overlooked for superior athletes, but he’s a player who has typically produced well when given an opportunity for a bigger role within an offense. And he has a knack for getting open.

With Odell Beckham Jr. getting hurt this season, Higgins earned more playing time for the Browns and responded with new career-high marks in yards and yards per reception. When throwing the ball in the direction of Higgins, Baker Mayfield had a passer rating of 126.1 despite badly missing him in the end zone for a touchdown on one occasion. At 26, Higgins represents an interesting option after the top receivers in the market are gone, though citations for drag racing will raise questions over maturity.

Contract Analysis: Higgins was finally thrust into a starting role following the loss of Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 7. From Week 7-17, Higgins was the 28th-ranked wide receiver out of the 146 who played at least 100 snaps over that stretch. He’ll get a chance to continue his free agency audition playing in the Browns’ first playoff game since 2002.

Prediction: Titans sign Higgins for two years, $10 million ($5M APY): $5.5 million total guaranteed, $4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

Prediction: Titans sign Higgins for two-years, $10 million ($5M APY). $5.5 million total guaranteed, $4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2021 Free Agency: Ranking the NFL's top 150 free agents | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

89. CB K’WAUN WILLIAMS​

In a league where covering the slot has never been more important, K’Waun Williams is one of the NFL’s better slot defenders and has been consistently good at a position where it is hard to maintain a high standard. In six seasons, Williams doesn’t have an overall PFF grade below 66.2, and his best play has been genuinely elite.

Over the past two seasons, Williams has allowed just one touchdown on 99 targets. He would represent a significant upgrade for a lot of teams if he’s healthy.

Contract Analysis: Williams is one of four 49ers cornerbacks set to hit free agency, but as a pure slot corner, he may have the best chance of returning. Williams missed eight out of a possible sixteen games this season yet finished on a positive note with his highest-graded performance of the season in a lockdown effort at Arizona, earning him a 90.5 defensive grade and an 80.5 coverage grade.

Prediction: 49ers sign Williams for two years, $8 million ($4M APY): $4 million total guaranteed, $3 million fully guaranteed at signing.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

LOL at the Lions if this were to come to reality

55. EDGE MELVIN INGRAM III​

Ingram’s second contract went a lot better than his first in terms of his level of play. Once seen as a first-round disappointment, Ingram blossomed into an extremely effective NFL pass-rusher only enhanced by the arrival of Joey Bosa to the Chargers‘ defensive front.

Ingram racked up three straight seasons with 70 or more total pressures before injury broke that streak, and 2020 featured the best PFF pass-rushing grade he has posted since 2017, even if the sacks never materialized.

Ingram is a productive pass-rusher, but he was limited to just 361 snaps this season. And at this point in his career, he isn’t going to be the primary source of pass rush for anything other than a bad pass-rushing football team. Teams that already have that primary stud up front could dramatically improve their rush with the addition of Ingram as a second threat, however.

Contract Analysis: Ingram briefly held out of training camp before the season, presumably looking for an extension of some kind. But after making Bosa the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history, the Chargers were only willing to guarantee Ingram’s 2020 salary and not add any years onto his deal. Injuries kept him out of the Chargers’ final six games, and he appeared in just seven games total in 2020.

Prediction: Lions sign Ingram for two years, $20M ($10M APY): $16M total guaranteed, $14M fully guaranteed at signing.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

2021 Free Agency: Ranking the NFL's top 150 free agents | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

44. WR CURTIS SAMUEL​

Perhaps one of the more under-the-radar storylines of the entire 2020 season is Curtis Samuel’s rebirth in Carolina under new head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. When Carolina signed speedster Robby Anderson this offseason, some thought it could spell the end of Samuel’s time in Carolina. He’s long been rumored in trades as he approaches the end of his rookie contract, but his 2020 campaign changes the situation entirely. Samuel and Anderson really aren’t very similar in their playing styles, and Joe Brady has accentuated Samuel’s strengths in an impressive fashion.

Contract Analysis: Samuel has shifted inside to the slot, and he’s also had at least one rushing attempt in every game this season. His 2020 average depth of target of 6.2 yards through Week 12 is a massive drop-off from his 2019 average depth of target mark of 15.1 yards. As a result, Samuel’s game is starting to resemble another second-round wide receiver with the last name Samuel: Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers. Both players look like running backs in the open field when they get the ball near or behind the line of scrimmage, flashing a physical, downhill nature in their efforts after the catch. Samuel has excelled in his new role and could have an opportunity to finish the season on a tear with D.J. Moore expected to miss some time.

Prediction: Giants sign Samuel for three years, $25 million ($8.33M APY): $15 million total guaranteed, $10 million fully guaranteed at signing.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

TBH, I really don't want to see any FA signing over 5-6M per for a couple years and mostly that might be @Stomp WR Josh Reynolds.

I'd rather see a bunch of Vet minimum signings this year until we see what the team transitions to in new schemes. Save money in FA signings this year and cut loose players who underperformed and have bad contracts; N. Williams, D. Trufant, J. James, C. Jones, C. Daniel, N. Bawden, J. Tavai (@broncosmitty would be pissed if I didn't place Tavai on that list)

Next year should be the year to cut LB Collins and OT/OG Vaitai

 

[Old Lion]

This is what I put in the other forum on January 4th. I would also like to trade Golladay. No idea what it would take to get Ioannidis, but I have to think he can be got. Okwara, Agnew, Prater, Fox, and Nelson are really the only players I think we should bring back.
View attachment 265268

I don't know that I would like to go after any big money FA, let's see if we can get some good comp picks for the exiting players. I am not sure which outside of Marvin Jones could actually get us a pick though.

Perhaps bring back Reeves-Maybin on a minnimum?

I am on the fence with Okwara. He wants a big contract and he is just a designated pass rusher. His run defense may be the worst in the league.

 

[Old Lion]

Franchise tag candidates for all 32 NFL teams | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

for comparisons sake

CHICAGO BEARS: WR ALLEN ROBINSON II​

2020 overall grade: 88.4
Projected franchise tag number: $18M

HOUSTON TEXANS: WR WILL FULLER V​

2020 overall grade: 86.2
Projected franchise tag number: $15.808M

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: WR NELSON AGHOLOR​

2020 overall grade: 73.8
Projected franchise tag number: $15.808M

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: WR CHRIS GODWIN​

2020 overall grade: 79.7
Projected franchise tag number: $15.808M

Yikes. He is better than everyone on that list by a lot. Not sure we can afford him anymore.

 

[Old Lion]

2021 NFL Free Agency: Most underrated free agent at every position | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

One player I would like to see signed if at the cost that PFF projects but once again I'd rather stay away from any significant signing.

KJ Wright is still playing damn good at age 31 but how far is he from falling off the cliff ? IDK. Highly doubtful he would come to Detroit.

LINEBACKER: K.J. WRIGHT​

Projected contract: Two years, $12 million ($6 million guaranteed)​

Wright has been a consistent performer in every facet of play throughout his 10-year career. He did have a down year in 2019 following an injury-riddled 2018 season, but Wright still ranked 36th in the league in PFF grade and bounced right back to form in 2020.

Wright was the sixth-most valuable off-ball linebacker in the NFL in 2020, according to PFF WAR. He actually generated three times as much WAR as fellow free agent linebackers Matt Milano and Jayon Brown, who are projected to receive a much, much bigger contract this offseason.

Obviously, age is a key reason for this, but Wright is showing no signs of decline and outplaying those in their prime.

I would take Shaq Griffin too. A little younger but probably more expensive.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Yikes. He is better than everyone on that list by a lot. Not sure we can afford him anymore.

Robinson has a 58% catch rate if that's a problem but so does Kenny. Godwin has a catch rate of 68%

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I would take Shaq Griffin too. A little younger but probably more expensive.

Probably so.

2021 Free Agency: Ranking the NFL's top 150 free agents | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

Prediction: Seahawks sign Griffin for three years, $28.5 million ($9.5M APY): $15.5M total guaranteed, $8M fully guaranteed at signing.

BB_72; WOW. I didn't see that coming if the price becomes reality.