Kershaw should be the leading NL Cy Young candidate

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I wasn't using HBP to do anything besides show that the runners on base allowed is not just the hits + walks where Dallas is better, but also the HBP too... having a 2 HBP differential added to the H+W differential all adds up...

Alright. It's been fun. I'm gonna leave you to it now. Good luck getting one:

Spoiler

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

then what do you think is the most important stat to voters?? did not say I think it is important, and I never even used it...

I think it's a pretty fair blend of Ws, ERA and Ks.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Yes, milkspiller thinks ERA is silly but he also cares about unearned runs. I can't even.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Yes, milkspiller thinks ERA is silly but he also cares about unearned runs. I can't even.

never said ERA is silly... certainly has its strengths... But I do think unearned runs have their value, I don't understand why they get totally ignored...

 

[Villain]

never said ERA is silly... certainly has its strengths... But I do think unearned runs have their value, I don't understand why they get totally ignored...

They don't get ignored. They get included in the final score of the game. They matter, a lot.

They are just not a decent indicator of pitcher performance. They are considered unearned because a pitcher (theoretically) has little-to-no control over their existence.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

They don't get ignored. They get included in the final score of the game. They matter, a lot.

They are just not a decent indicator of pitcher performance. They are considered unearned because a pitcher (theoretically) has little-to-no control over their existence.

But.. But... we don't look at wins, its a BAD stat...

 

[Villain]

But.. But... we don't look at wins, its a BAD stat...

 

[Darkstone42]

Kershaw notched his 300th strikeout of the season today. That's pretty tremendous.

 

[Great Dayne]

Jake will win, he's getting more press and more are predicting he will win.

 

[Villain]

Jake will win, he's getting more press and more are predicting he will win.

I think you're right. Such a good trio of pitchers. Then Scherzer just on the outside looking in.

 

[Darkstone42]

I think you're right. Such a good trio of pitchers. Then Scherzer just on the outside looking in.

Scherzer had two no-hitters this year, both games in which he posted game scores of 100+ (I think he's the first pitcher to do the latter in a very long time), including the second best game every pitched by game score, and he's not even going to get a single third place vote probably.

And it's not like those were his only two good starts. He dominated much of the season. But there are three guys legitimately clearly better than him.

That's unreal.

 

[calsnowskier]

Scherzer had two no-hitters this year, both games in which he posted game scores of 100+ (I think he's the first pitcher to do the latter in a very long time), including the second best game every pitched by game score, and he's not even going to get a single third place vote probably.

And it's not like those were his only two good starts. He dominated much of the season. But there are three guys legitimately clearly better than him.

That's unreal.

Yup. 3 monsters in one league will do that.

Scherzer was a beast, but it is very difficult to argue he deserves a top 3 vote in this years class.

 

[Villain]

Scherzer had two no-hitters this year, both games in which he posted game scores of 100+ (I think he's the first pitcher to do the latter in a very long time), including the second best game every pitched by game score, and he's not even going to get a single third place vote probably.

And it's not like those were his only two good starts. He dominated much of the season. But there are three guys legitimately clearly better than him.

That's unreal.

He almost had a no-hitter last week, too. Didn't give a hit/run until the 8th. BEISBOL.

 

[Villain]

Even Grant (Giants blogger, Dodgers "hater") agrees with me.

Clayton Kershaw struck out 300 batters and should win the Cy Young

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Even Grant (Giants blogger, Dodgers "hater") agrees with me.

Clayton Kershaw struck out 300 batters and should win the Cy Young

I really hate knocking Kershaw, because he is amazing and already after 8 seasons a sure fire HOFer(which is amazing)... But I just don't get how Kershaw can win over Greinke or Arrieta...

 

[Villain]

I really hate knocking Kershaw, because he is amazing and already after 8 seasons a sure fire HOFer(which is amazing)... But I just don't get how Kershaw can win over Greinke or Arrieta...

It's one thing for you to just like one of the other guys more, because there really isn't a wrong answer here and every voter is splitting hairs, but for you to just not even understand why Kershaw could be the right answer for me or the author of that article is what baffles me.

I don't know how to convince you other than the case I've already made and what Grant Bisbee argued in his article. You're just on your own island of custom stats involving unearned runs, thinking QS% and negligible differences in WHIP are things that are important, and not understanding where we're coming from. That's fine and all, but like I said I don't know what else to tell you if what's been said isn't enough.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

It's one thing for you to just like one of the other guys more, because there really isn't a wrong answer here and every voter is splitting hairs, but for you to just not even understand why Kershaw could be the right answer for me or the author of that article is what baffles me.

I don't know how to convince you other than the case I've already made and what Grant Bisbee argued in his article. You're just on your own island of custom stats involving unearned runs, thinking QS% and negligible differences in WHIP are things that are important, and not understanding where we're coming from. That's fine and all, but like I said I don't know what else to tell you if what's been said isn't enough.

I hate being careful of what I say... Please just assume exaggeration... that's what the punctuation is for!!! I do have Kershaw being my 3... and any other year he would have probably won with the stats he put up... BUT TO ME it is clear that he is the 3... All I see Kershaw to be better at is Strike outs and all that comes with that including FIP and xFIP...

 

[Villain]

I hate being careful of what I say... Please just assume exaggeration... that's what the punctuation is for!!! I do have Kershaw being my 3... and any other year he would have probably won with the stats he put up... BUT TO ME it is clear that he is the 3... All I see Kershaw to be better at is Strike outs and all that comes with that including FIP and xFIP...

So... he's only better at the things that a pitcher has 100% control of (at a historic level)? Yeah, can't imagine why people would find that to be more convincing than unearned runs and QS%...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

So... he's only better at the things that a pitcher has 100% control of (at a historic level)? Yeah, can't imagine why people would find that to be more convincing than unearned runs and QS%...

advanced stats suck in that they make you forgot what is really important!!! we are not talking about who is the best pitcher, we are talking about which pitcher had the best season... If a pitcher has a better ERA and WHIP, tell me, why does strike outs matter??

 

[OutlawImmortal]

Did you read the article, Milk? Explains the reasoning pretty clearly...

The difference between him and Arrieta/Greinke had to do with batting average on balls in play -- Kershaw was up with the MLB average, with the other two having historically fantastic seasons. Some would argue they're having historically lucky seasons.

That's a little much for me. I know Greinke is still trying to crack the code of hard contact, and he's not ready to throw his hands up and say BOY HOWDY, AM I LUCKY THIS YEAR. When it comes to results, Greinke allowed fewer hits than Kershaw. He allowed fewer runs. That counts, and I will not pooh-pooh arguments suggesting as much.

When it comes to the best pitcher, though, I'm smitten with Kershaw. His 300 strikeouts, complemented with eerie control, suggest a pitcher who can do whatever he wants. If a pitcher's one goal is to keep the hitter from hitting the ball hard, Kershaw is doing it better than any pitcher over the last 15 seasons ... by keeping the hitter from hitting the ball at all. Here are the last 10 times a pitcher has finished with a Fielding Independent Pitching mark under 2.00 and 200 innings or more:

1. Clayton Kershaw, 2015 (1.99)
2. Pedro Martinez, 1999 (1.39)
3. Dwight Gooden, 1984 (1.69)
4. Tom Seaver, 1971 (1.93)
5. Bob Gibson, 1968 (1.77)
6. Sandy Koufax, 1965 (1.93)
7. Sandy Koufax, 1963 (1.85)
8. Hal Newhouser, 1946 (1.97)
9. Walter Johnson, 1917 (1.98)
10. Grover Cleveland Alexander, 1917 (1.84)

Which is to say, this sort of season comes along every 10 years or so on average, dating back to just before World War I. The pitchers who do it usually make the Hall of Fame. That's because they're the best pitchers. That's why Kershaw is lapping the field according to FanGraphs' numbers. When it comes to making hitters swing and miss -- the exact opposite of what they're trying to do -- Kershaw is on a very, very short and impressive list.

I can understand if you would rather give the award to Greinke or Arrieta, but Kershaw is just as deserving as well.