Keeper league - cut Shady McCoy loose?

[SmokingMonkey]

hey all - doing the suicide league so early got me to start thinking on who I am going to stash in my keeper league this year.

quick basics:

• 10team league
• 1pt for 10yd rush/rec, 25yds pass
• all TDs 6pts
• NO PPR

-rest of scoring formats are pretty standard, nothing out of the usual

Keeper Rules:
We are only allowed to keep 4 players, and you lose the round that they were drafted in from previous season. 2yr keepers automatically = highest available pick. any players with a #1 behind thier name means that they were either drafted in the top 4 rounds last year, or a keeper from the previous season. Conversely, FA pick ups = you losing last available pick.

As of now, I am anticipating almost every owner will lose at LEAST rds 1-2 from their keepers.

So now for the meat and cheese:
My initial thoughts - keep my WRs, since I am stacked there, and go super heavy after RBs in the draft.

projected: Megatron(1), Marshall(1), Julio Jones(1), & Doug Martin(1)

legit options available: LeSean McCoy(1), Demarco Murray(1), Matthew Stafford(FA), David Wilson(FA), Kaepernick(FA), Vick Ballard(FA), Eric Decker(FA)

I'm not extremely interested in keeping a QB, I think there will be good options out there, even if I have to take 2 of the lower end QB1 guys. 10 team league = everyone has a decent QB, imo, and I cant get a Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Peyton in the draft.

Last year, I kept Julio(FA), Calvin(2), McCoy(1), and Murray(FA), and drafted Marshall and Martin in the 3rd/4th since I kept 2 FAs. Keeping Murray after letting Lynch go killed me, especially since McCoy couldnt find the endzone last year. Still made the playoffs, and lost in semi's to the league champ, but, like everyone else, I'm in it to win it, not just to do well.

Thoughts/Advice from any and all is much appreciated!

 

[TREFF]

hey all - doing the suicide league so early got me to start thinking on who I am going to stash in my keeper league this year.

quick basics:

• 10team league
• 1pt for 10yd rush/rec, 25yds pass
• all TDs 6pts
• NO PPR

-rest of scoring formats are pretty standard, nothing out of the usual
Keeper Rules:
We are only allowed to keep 4 players, and you lose the round that they were drafted in from previous season. 2yr keepers automatically = highest available pick. any players with a #1 behind thier name means that they were either drafted in the top 4 rounds last year, or a keeper from the previous season. Conversely, FA pick ups = you losing last available pick.

As of now, I am anticipating almost every owner will lose at LEAST rds 1-2 from their keepers.

So now for the meat and cheese:
My initial thoughts - keep my WRs, since I am stacked there, and go super heavy after RBs in the draft.

projected: Megatron(1), Marshall(1), Julio Jones(1), & Doug Martin(1)

legit options available: LeSean McCoy(1), Demarco Murray(1), Matthew Stafford(FA), David Wilson(FA), Kaepernick(FA), Vick Ballard(FA), Eric Decker(FA)

I'm not extremely interested in keeping a QB, I think there will be good options out there, even if I have to take 2 of the lower end QB1 guys. 10 team league = everyone has a decent QB, imo, and I cant get a Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Peyton in the draft.

Last year, I kept Julio(FA), Calvin(2), McCoy(1), and Murray(FA), and drafted Marshall and Martin in the 3rd/4th since I kept 2 FAs. Keeping Murray after letting Lynch go killed me, especially since McCoy couldnt find the endzone last year. Still made the playoffs, and lost in semi's to the league champ, but, like everyone else, I'm in it to win it, not just to do well.

Thoughts/Advice from any and all is much appreciated!

I like the four you have...the only thing I've be hesitant on would be how many solid RB's you anticipate being available in the draft. There's only 2, maybe three legit possibilities from the rookie pool, and unless there's a bunch cut loose, your #2 could kinda stink. But, my opinion is the with Martin at #1, and those three studs at WR, you can afford to go for it.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Normally I would say keep Shady but those 3 WR's will all end up top 10 and probably top 5. Do you already know your draft position?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

just went back and checked. I lost in 1st round of playoffs last year to the eventual champ, then lost the 5th place game as well.

Also, we do 2WRs 2RBs and 1Flex

I draft 4th overall.

Non-rookie RBs that I think will be out there, assuming my proposed keepers - Reggie Bush or Frank Gore (same owner, probably wont keep both), DMC or Ridley (same owner), Ryan Mathews, BJGE, DWilson, and then possibly Spiller and I can't remember the last guy that I was thinking about.

Not to forget McCoy & Murray, who I'd be letting go.

The biggest worry on my end is that 2-3 teams may not keep all 4, giving them the leg up on drafting the best available talent that gets cut.

Ideally, I'd need to land 2 of the guys off that list, a QB, and a rookie RB with upside/in nice situation, like Ball/Bell/Lacy (or Franklin....), and a TE within my first 5 picks

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

Monkey- Nice choices and I think you have it right- keep the 3 WRs. And I am very pro-RB on keepers. You happen to be keeping the top three WRs on my early board.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Thanks Fuzz/Sam/Treff

Like I said before, this is the early look over, just scanning the league.
I will do my in depth analysis and see if I can put together all of the teams' top 4-5 keepers to get a more legit list of which RBs will be out there. Hopefully be done with that before Memorial Day.

This damn suicide league is giving me some fantasy football fever! Can't Wait!!!!

 

[tlance]

I am not sure why you would want to keep Marshall over McCoy. There are many reasons why I would go Shady here.

1) Shady will be drafted before Jones and Marshall in almost every league

2) Reliable RB 2s are harder to find than reliable WR2s. If you pass on Shady, your next best RB will almost always be weaker than the best WR in the draft.

3) Your team will be better balanced with 2 RB and 2 WR than it will with 3 and 1.

4) Shady will be in a run heavy attack for the first time in his career.


For the reasons listed above, I would take Shady ahead of either Jones or Marshall for sure. If you can keep players forever, than Marshall is the guy you let go. If you can only keep them for a year or two, Marshall is probably slightly more valuable than Jones.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

thanks tlance. I'm sure I'll bounce back and forth between keeping McCoy over Marshall all summer, much like I did with Murray v Lynch last year.

keeping your first 2 pts in mind:

1) Shady will be drafted before Jones and Marshall in almost every league

2) Reliable RB 2s are harder to find than reliable WR2s. If you pass on Shady, your next best RB will almost always be weaker than the best WR in the draft.

reminded me to check back on how last year's redraft went, since it was the 2nd year we had the league. A LOT of RBs were selected with people's 1st/2nd available picks. Definitely something to think about. Losing Peters last year at OT I think really buried McCoy's season. PHI had 0 depth on their OL, and lost a few players to injuries. Going from 16TDs to like 5 (cant remember how many he had last year, but it was horrible compared to year before) was killer, and Calvin was in the same boat, but at least he produced the yardage.

 

[tlance]

Don't forget that Chip Kelly's system is very run heavy and McCoy is one of the best at making guys miss. I have seen experts ranking him as high as 4 and no lower than 10. He has been an elite back playing for Andy Reed. What will Shady do for a coach who features him as the focal point of the offense?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Martin and Megatron are locks for keepers, no questions asked, and I think everyone would agree on that.

Since we dont have a limit on the number of years you can keep a player, I have Julio ranked above Marshall. He will cost me my best available pick every year I keep him (as would Marshall), but he is one of the few WRs in the league that can catch a ball in coverage, and still break out for YAC. And ATL/Ryan has a knack for throwing the ball a ton.

I really like the idea of the balanced keepers, 2WR 2RB, which I did last year. And I wouldnt be showing my hand to everyone on my redraft strategy by taking the balanced approach. Keeping 3WRs would let everyone know that I'm drafting RBs heavy.

It is a tough decision. I'll probably shop Marshall/McCoy around in a couple of months and see if there is any interest. Not a lot of owners willing to part with picks last year though, but I did manage to trade VDavis for a 7th rd pick to a huge 49ers fan in our league