KEEPER LEAGUE CONUNDRUM

[Sox33OSU]

So I'm in a 12-team PPR keeper league this year, and I had some pretty bad luck last year. I had the last pick and it showed. Anyhow, I need to keep someone, and I have it narrowed to:

Julio Jones
Chris Johnson
Peyton Manning

My initial thought it eliminating Peyton immediately, leaving CJ2K and JJ. I know there will be a likely early run on RBs, and I learned the hard way last season that I need to be investing more in that position. I also do like CJ2K's potential for a good season, but I'm not supremely confident. I am, however, supremely confident that JJ is going to be a top 3-5 fantasy WR this season.

Who would you keep?

 

[bone3421]

i would take cj2k

rb's not very deep....wr very,very deep

 

[averagejoe]

Bone brings up a good point.

Do you know where you pick this year? Depending upon who you keep, it is entirely possible to redraft the other two. Jones and CJ have been going in the 2nd. Manning in the 3rd or 4th.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Bone brings up a good point.

Do you know where you pick this year? Depending upon who you keep, it is entirely possible to redraft the other two. Jones and CJ have been going in the 2nd. Manning in the 3rd or 4th.

That's the bitch of it. I won't know where I pick until draft day. Last year's champ gets the first pick, and after that we draw the order out of a hat and the draft generally starts about 30 minutes later. If I wind up with the 2nd-6th pick, I will likely keep JJ since there will be other guys out there. Based on what I'm seeing when looking at last year's rosters and assuming who the keeper will be, the following RBs will be draft-eligible:

Jamal Charles (Keeper will be Arian Foster)
Marshawn Lynch (Ray Rice)
Darren Sproles (Rice)
Matt Forte (Doug Martin)
CJ Spiller (Martin)
Darren McFadden (Adrian Peterson)
Stevan Ridley (Peterson)

Aside from DMC, I'd be happy taking any of those guys in what essentially amounts to the 2nd round. However, if I end up with a late-round pick, I may have to switch my keeper to CJ2K to assure myself of at least one proven starting RB.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

i would take cj2k

rb's not very deep....wr very,very deep

Non only is WR deep, but so is QB this year. I'd keep CJ1.2K.

 

[bone3421]

why not keep cj and then draft another rb........then grab wr's---d.thomas,dez,colston,bowe,jordy nelson,welker.....tons of guys should be there 2nd round

 

[TREFF]

i would take cj2k

rb's not very deep....wr very,very deep

I would echo this, and add...QB, also very very deep. I know we're talking Manning here, and I'm no huge CJ fan, but that's probably the safest, smartest play

 

[TKOSpikes]

Gosh, I feel the same, although I wouldn't like it at all. Keeping Chris Johnson doesn't excite me, but that's what I'd do if I were you. Even though Julio and Peyton are bigger monsters, the safer play is keeping a RB.

 

[Barilko]

That's the bitch of it. I won't know where I pick until draft day. Last year's champ gets the first pick, and after that we draw the order out of a hat and the draft generally starts about 30 minutes later. If I wind up with the 2nd-6th pick, I will likely keep JJ since there will be other guys out there. Based on what I'm seeing when looking at last year's rosters and assuming who the keeper will be, the following RBs will be draft-eligible:

Jamal Charles (Keeper will be Arian Foster)
Marshawn Lynch (Ray Rice)
Darren Sproles (Rice)
Matt Forte (Doug Martin)
CJ Spiller (Martin)
Darren McFadden (Adrian Peterson)
Stevan Ridley (Peterson)

Aside from DMC, I'd be happy taking any of those guys in what essentially amounts to the 2nd round. However, if I end up with a late-round pick, I may have to switch my keeper to CJ2K to assure myself of at least one proven starting RB.

Im guessing if you all keep 1 than the keeper value is the same for everyone
in many a league the value is based on which round you drafted the potential keeper in

however with the scenario that you appear to be playing with..

as Bone and others stated above i also would keep CJ1K. and then would follow with a Rb in round 2 unless the available rb in round 2 mirrors what rb s you expect to still be there in round 3.

in this case i would grab best Wr in round 2...with all that being said i will definitely keep CJ1k and go Rb round 2

 

[Sox33OSU]

Many thanks everyone. Great input

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I think you have the best strategy lined up already, if you pick early, keep Julio and draft RB/RB with your 1st 2 picks, unless there is a massive run at RB during the first round of drafting. Looks like most of the owners are keeping RBs, so you'd expect any teams not keeping a RB will be drafting one in the first round, and that the teams keeping RBs will most likely go WR or QB with one of their 1st 2 picks.

If you draft at the end of the 1st, keep CJ and go RB/WR or WR/RB with your first 2 picks, depending on what's available and who you have projected.

Deep QBs = Deep WRs, imo. Can't have one without the other. That's why I'd suggest going RB with your 1st pick reagardless of who you keep, but that's just me.

 

[Sox33OSU]

So I've been putting more thought into this and I very well may end up keeping Julio regardless. If I have an early pick that means I should still be able to get a really nice RB. If I end up picking toward the end, I should be able to get a couple of certainly passable ones (I'd be more than happy with 2 of Reggie Bush, Montee Ball, Le'Veon Bell, Lamar Miller, Demarco Murray, Frank Gore, or Darren Sproles, and then later on pick up a 3rd low-end starter like Chris Ivory, J-Stewart/Deangelo Williams, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Eddie Lacy/Johnathan Franklin, Zac Stacy/Darryl Richardson.

I think personally the Julio could be a top 3 WR this year, even with White on the other side. His targets are going up while White's are going down, and he's just a beast.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Julio Jones could easily be a top 10 WR for the next 5-8yrs, CJ realistically could be considered a top 15 RB for less than that, imo.

I wouldnt fault you for going with either one. I just think you should go RB-RB in the draft if you decide to keep Julio.