Kaep gaining experience at the expense of second seed?

[Pharcyde]

So if the Niners end up not having the second seed and is beat in the wild card game, would it have been worth making the switch at qb?

 

[clyde_carbon]

Holy overreaction. Kaep wasn't good today, but he wasn't the reason we lost. We just fucking suck every three games.

 

[Mock2Speed]

No. It's beyond too late to waver from the decision at QB. I mean there was already rumbling before about making such a change in week 12, so week 16, there is no benefit from switching even if there was a shot in the dark we win, because it would just exude or exacerbate the notion of disarray. The only direction to go is forward.

 

[Pharcyde]

I'm not referring to just this game.... Whatever qb played tonight would have been no different

 

[Pharcyde]

Hard to say what our record would be without the qb change, so I guess it's a difficult question to really answer

 

[Bemular]

So if the Niners end up not having the second seed and is beat in the wild card game, would it have been worth making the switch at qb?

Is this even a serious question? Of course it would have been worth it!

 

[clyde_carbon]

I'm not referring to just this game.... Whatever qb played tonight would have been no different

What are you referring to, then? Kaep is 4-2 and a FG away from being 5-1 and still has one of the best QBRs in the entire league.

 

[Pharcyde]

What are you referring to, then? Kaep is 4-2 and a FG away from being 5-1 and still has one of the best QBRs in the entire league.

Probably still the frustration from the second rams game!

 

[Pharcyde]

Is this even a serious question? Of course it would have been worth it!

I don't know if its such an easy answer like that... Without kaep the team was a Super Bowl contend... I guess it would matter how they lost in the first round.

 

[clyde_carbon]

I don't know if its such an easy answer like that... Without kaep the team was a Super Bowl contend... I guess it would matter how they lost in the first round.

If it was a lock that this team would win the SB with Alex at QB he would've never been benched.

 

[MHSL82]

Hard to say what our record would be without the qb change, so I guess it's a difficult question to really answer

I think we're better off with Kaep and his inexperience over Smith and his experience. There are just a lot of things Kaep does better and I can't see anything Smith does that Kaep won't get better at. But if you are talking about records - here's my comparison - all unscientific. At this point of the season, if no injury, I could see 11-4 or 10-5 with Alex, IMO. Obviously, one is better and one is worse than our 10-4-1 record. No images of winning out or apocalypse collapse from Smith.

Rams - Kaep understandably took awhile to get used to playing and he still tied the game without the Bears game magic plays. I could be wrong, but I feel we would have won this game with Smith, no blame to Kaep because of the circumstances.

Chicago Cutler's replacement wouldn't have required many points by Alex - so we'd win, but not in the same fashion.

New Orleans - This is a toss-up because while we would have scored more than 17 offensive points if we needed to, we won with good defense and running. That formula could have been the same. No prediction - but will count later.

Rams - Bradford could not do anything and the only points were from bogus ref calls and stupid play calls. I, for some reason, feel that Smith would have avoided at least one of those - if even to take a sack at the 2 yard line.

Dolphins - While this could have been Minnesota Part Deux, I think our defense would have won this one.

New England - I feel that there was no way we'd get to 28 points ahead with Smith and Brady had a great second half. Different QB, different gameplan, different results at different times, but I think would be a loss.

Seattle - I think we saw some inexperience with Kaep, but this was a Seattle game - they won it and none of us played well. Really like that Minnesota game, except I think we were more prepared theoretically for the Seahawks coming strong. Didn't see any Kaep mistakes that cost the game, as the INT (and TD for that matter) were after the game was decided. No prediction - but will count later.

Having said all that, I believe out of the New Orleans, and Seattle game, we'd only win one with Smith, at most. I know losing one doesn't cause us to win the other or vice-versa, but they are close enough, I think our defense would prevail in one of those. I could see losing one of the Rams games (or losing both the NO/SEA games), so my conservative guess would be 10-5 with a chance at 11-4 - in other words, the same place as we are now (the tie Rams game kind of splits my two predictions).

I do know that teams would play us differently if we were playing Smith, but we'd also adjust our gameplan for Smith. So there's a little give and take there. One play here or there changes the entire rest of game. Same record give or take half a game plus Kaep's advantages minus little to no disadvantages from Kaep - mainly cause I don't see Kaep losing this game for us, inexperience or otherwise, and he made up for the Rams game with the Patriots game.

 

[Bemular]

I don't know if its such an easy answer like that... Without kaep the team was a Super Bowl contend... I guess it would matter how they lost in the first round.

Well maybe not for you, but for me it is one of the easiest questions I've answered all year!

As for being a SB contenders, are we not in the playoffs and thus SB contenders with Kap regardless of how we win or lose in any round? See, your question and reasoning behind your question are rather senseless.

 

[MHSL82]

If we lose in the first round, I will wonder a bit. BUT, I would also wonder what would have happened if we won the coin toss and deferred or if they won the coin toss and deferred (opposite of whatever happened, if we lost). I would also wonder what would have happened if it were at night instead of in the morning. I would have wondered what would have happened if Harbaugh had decided to wear a different sweater. Why did I wear my Niners division shirt instead of my Niners jacket?!!! Etc.

Unless we get blown out in the first round with mistakes that we couldn't expect from Alex after Harbaugh's coaching and panics that we couldn't expect from Kaep after all his second half of the season experience he's gained, I'll be comfortable with whatever happens - even if disappointed in the outcome. We need to do what the most qualified person for the job thinks is the most qualified for the starting job.

 

[Bemular]

If we lose in the first round, I will wonder a bit.

Wonder what Nostadumbass? So do you think the Falcons should start McCown in the first round because Ryan has lost in the first round in each of his three playoff starts?

 

[MHSL82]

Wonder what Nostadumbass? So do you think the Falcons should start McCown in the first round because Ryan has lost in the first round in each of his three playoff starts?

My fault, I wasn't clear. I know the original thread was about the QB decision. That to me wasn't an issue. I think the decision Harbaugh made was the right choice and even if we lose in the first round, I wouldn't second guess that decision. There are things that go past stats and regular season W/L ratios that make Kaep a better option than Smith. And even then, Kaep is at or better than Smith at those. If we lost with Kaep, I'd assume we'd have lost with Smith.

I know my comment wasn't clear but I tried to illustrate that if we lost, I'd be wondering a lot of things and how it would have happened if something different were there - like who got the ball first, what time of day the game happened, etc. My thing was, sure I'd wonder about inexperience and all that, but not any more than any other little thing that could have incidentally changed the game (if we lost).

For example, if KW hadn't fumbled in the NFCC game, that wouldn't have made Smith a better QB or his performance any better, but it might have been the Superbowl. So, I do wonder about that - despite the fact that wouldn't change who Smith was or how he did in that game. So if Kaep makes a rookie-like mistake and we lose, I'd wonder about experience costing us, but that doesn't mean putting in Smith = victory. Nothing Harbaugh could have done about that - he played Smith until it was the time to play Kaep.

As to the Nostradamus remark, I was just responding with my opinion. I know that we don't know what would happen with different QBs. Smith can lose winnable games and the defense saves us from would-be losses. So I wasn't trying to say this is how it would have gone. I also said beyond whatever record we could have had with Smith, Kaep is better for many reasons beyond that and it outweighs inexperience. The only way to get that is to play.

 

[Bemular]

My fault, I wasn't clear. I know the original thread was about the QB decision. That to me wasn't an issue. I think the decision Harbaugh made was the right choice and even if we lose in the first round, I wouldn't second guess that decision. There are things that go past stats and regular season W/L ratios that make Kaep a better option than Smith. And even then, Kaep is at or better than Smith at those. If we lost with Kaep, I'd assume we'd have lost with Smith.

I know my comment wasn't clear but I tried to illustrate that if we lost, I'd be wondering a lot of things and how it would have happened if something different were there - like who got the ball first, what time of day the game happened, etc. My thing was, sure I'd wonder about inexperience and all that, but not any more than any other little thing that could have incidentally changed the game (if we lost).

For example, if KW hadn't fumbled in the NFCC game, that wouldn't have made Smith a better QB or his performance any better, but it might have been the Superbowl. So, I do wonder about that - despite the fact that wouldn't change who Smith was or how he did in that game. So if Kaep makes a rookie-like mistake and we lose, I'd wonder about experience costing us, but that doesn't mean putting in Smith = victory. Nothing Harbaugh could have done about that - he played Smith until it was the time to play Kaep.

As to the Nostradamus remark, I was just responding with my opinion. I know that we don't know what would happen with different QBs.

Kaepernick, even with his mistakes, is our best QB - Thus, if we lose in the first, second or any round with Kaepernick then we will have lost with our best QB behind center. It is really just that simple.

 

[Yoshi]

I'm not so worried about Kaep as much as our defense. Kaep is a better QB than Alex despite the inexperience, but let's face it - the defense will lead this team deep in the playoffs, not the offense. With J Smith out, our defense has given up 28 points against NE and 35 points against Seattle. They have had some pretty shotty performances the last couple of weeks and there's no guarantee Justin is going to start in the first game of the PO's.

Apparently, Manningham is done (unconfirmed but his injury has ligament issues written all over it) which leaves Crabby, Ginn, Moss, and unfortunately AJ Jenkins as their wideouts. Hunter is done and Jacobs is suspended so our RB's come down to Gore, James, and Dixon. The Niners are going to have to get creative because we are lacking some serious depth.

 

[MHSL82]

Kaepernick, even with his mistakes, is our best QB - Thus, if we lose in the first, second or any round with Kaepernick then we will have lost with our best QB behind center. It is really just that simple.

Yep, I agree 100%. My mistake to imply otherwise.

I guess in my mind I was comparing an experienced Kaep with an inexperienced Kaep (in wondering whether experience costs us, as opposed to skill), not with Smith - though I know that's what the thread was about. My other post was about if Smith were playing, but that was more to address the issue he had with our playoff seed - saying that even if Smith were to get us the same or better regular season record, going with Kaep is/was/will be the right decision. I should have just said that, but I expanded.

So I understand that what I said in the next post was seen as saying that I'd wonder what would have happened with Smith. That, I assure you, is not an issue with me. We'll go the farthest we can with Kaep.

 

[Bemular]

I'm not so worried about Kaep as much as our defense. Kaep is a better QB than Alex despite the inexperience, but let's face it - the defense will lead this team deep in the playoffs, not the offense. With J Smith out, our defense has given up 28 points against NE and 35 points against Seattle. They have had some pretty shotty performances the last couple of weeks and there's no guarantee Justin is going to start in the first game of the PO's.

Apparently, Manningham is done (unconfirmed but his injury has ligament issues written all over it) which leaves Crabby, Ginn, Moss, and unfortunately AJ Jenkins as their wideouts. Hunter is done and Jacobs is suspended so our RB's come down to Gore, James, and Dixon. The Niners are going to have to get creative because we are lacking some serious depth.

This!! Well said Yosh. Right now we are beat up and not playing well, and that is not how you want to go into the playoffs.

 

[Yoshi]

This!! Well said Yosh. Right now we are beat up and not playing well, and that is not how you want to go into the playoffs.

I hear you man, I wouldn't mind these losses if our team remained healthy. Manningham was able to put weight on the knee and x - rays were negative, although that doesn't dictate that he's back next week. It actually looked pretty serious...


http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1916189/kneeburster.gif