It's crazy how Utley was on the fast track to the Hall of Fame five years ago

[Omar 382]

I just saw something and it reminded me of this thread. In "The Bill James Handbook 2014" there is a section called "Hall of Fame Monitor" that uses a complex formula (that would take Pythagorean to explain) that says who probably will and will not be a Hall of Famer. Basically, a score of 100 means that you are a sure fire Hall of Famer if you retire today. If you don't have 100, it doesn't mean that you aren't going to make the Hall, it just means you aren't a sure thing or that you have some more work to put in. The only active players with 100 points or more are: Ichiro Suzuki (109), Derek Jeter (147), Alex Rodriguez (177), Albert Pujols (158), and Miguel Cabrera (109).

Anyway, I was surprised to see the score Utley got. Only 53 points. Again, this isn't a perfect formula, but Bill James is a pretty smart guy. The gray area is around 70-100 points, so if you have less than 70 points, you probably aren't a Hall of Famer (at least not yet). Conversely, Rollins has 7 more points at 60, and Howard is sitting at 52. Paps with 46 points They are the only four current Phillies that had enough points to appear on this list.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this. I would think Utley would have more points than Rollins. On a side note, Halladay only has 55 points. I also think he will make the Hall.

 

[Omar 382]

Some other surprises (in my opinion):
Torri Hunter- 38 (too low)
Scott Rolen- 65 (too low)
Miguel Tejada- 74 (tad high)
Roy Oswalt- 28 (too low)
Adam Dunn- 49 (too high)
Jayson Werth- 20 (too low)

 

[Omar 382]

Also, I forgot about Ruiz. He was the fifth and last Phillie on the list with 18 points.

 

[Cedrique]

I just saw something and it reminded me of this thread. In "The Bill James Handbook 2014" there is a section called "Hall of Fame Monitor" that uses a complex formula (that would take Pythagorean to explain) that says who probably will and will not be a Hall of Famer. Basically, a score of 100 means that you are a sure fire Hall of Famer if you retire today. If you don't have 100, it doesn't mean that you aren't going to make the Hall, it just means you aren't a sure thing or that you have some more work to put in. The only active players with 100 points or more are: Ichiro Suzuki (109), Derek Jeter (147), Alex Rodriguez (177), Albert Pujols (158), and Miguel Cabrera (109).

Anyway, I was surprised to see the score Utley got. Only 53 points. Again, this isn't a perfect formula, but Bill James is a pretty smart guy. The gray area is around 70-100 points, so if you have less than 70 points, you probably aren't a Hall of Famer (at least not yet). Conversely, Rollins has 7 more points at 60, and Howard is sitting at 52. Paps with 46 points They are the only four current Phillies that had enough points to appear on this list.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this. I would think Utley would have more points than Rollins. On a side note, Halladay only has 55 points. I also think he will make the Hall.

I think one thing it shows is that in the Hall of Fame voting thus far the question of which player gets in the hall of fame and which one was better or more valuable are two different things. The Hall of Fame voters have always valued "counting stats", like RBIs, which helps Howard. I can see how Rollins and Utley would be close, with maybe Rollins getting a little edge. He hasn't been injured as much and I'm assuming his offensive numbers look better compared to other shortstops than Utley's do compared to other 2nd basemen. (I don't have anything to back that up, it just seems like there aren't that many shortstops that have been able to play the position for a long period of time and still perform offensively. That may not even be true but I think that is the perception of the old guys that vote on the hall, which is all that matters)

 

[Omar 382]

I think one thing it shows is that in the Hall of Fame voting thus far the question of which player gets in the hall of fame and which one was better or more valuable are two different things. The Hall of Fame voters have always valued "counting stats", like RBIs, which helps Howard. I can see how Rollins and Utley would be close, with maybe Rollins getting a little edge. He hasn't been injured as much and I'm assuming his offensive numbers look better compared to other shortstops than Utley's do compared to other 2nd basemen. (I don't have anything to back that up, it just seems like there aren't that many shortstops that have been able to play the position for a long period of time and still perform offensively. That may not even be true but I think that is the perception of the old guys that vote on the hall, which is all that matters)

It's close. I think that second base is more top heavy compared to shortstop with Hornsby, Collins, Lajoie, Robinson, and Frisch vs. Jeter, Wagner, Ripken, Yount, and Appling; but overall, I think shortstop is a bigger offensive position. That's just how I view it. Nothing to back it up. It'd be interesting if a website had all time position's offensive production, but I can't find one.

 

[Cedrique]

It's close. I think that second base is more top heavy compared to shortstop with Hornsby, Collins, Lajoie, Robinson, and Frisch vs. Jeter, Wagner, Ripken, Yount, and Appling; but overall, I think shortstop is a bigger offensive position. That's just how I view it. Nothing to back it up. It'd be interesting if a website had all time position's offensive production, but I can't find one.

Yeah, it's probably close. I think the power numbers are usually the ones where the shortstop position comes up short. Like recently 3 guys that got in are Aparicio, Rizzuto and Ozzie Smith. I'm sure Jimmy Rollins easily has more homeruns than all three of those guys combined. And it seems like a lot of shortstops that do have some power end up switching to other positions. Chipper Jones, A Rod, Garciaparra, I think Ernie Banks was a SS originally too. If you're just looking at games actually played as a SS I bet Rollins is probably like 30th in homeruns. (just guessing, but I'm sure I could find that stat somewhere).

 

[Cedrique]

I couldn't find the list of hrs by a ss but the all-time leader for the AL is Ripken with 345 and NL is Banks with 277 so Rollins with 198 is pretty good. 25th or 30th still seems about right.