Is trend against the spread worth considering?

[TDs3nOut]

I just read this piece that analyzes picking against the spread on this Sunday's upcoming Bengals at Bills game.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction | Bleacher Report

I thought it was kind of interesting that the choice between bets was broken down to consider (1) current factors (e.g., the Bengals are coming off of a big win in which they held the Pats to only six points, while the Bills lost last week by 13-points to Cleveland and they start a QB who will start only his second NFL game) and (2) past factors, specifically, each team's past performance against the spread. A look at those trends shows that the Bengals are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six trips to Buffalo, while the Bills are 9-2 against the spread in its last elven games against the Bengals. Since the implications of these current and past factors seemingly lead toward opposite conclusions about which team is the better pick, I thought it might be interesting to discuss the relative merits of current and past factors in deciding which team to pick against the spread. What do you think? If you were picking this game against the spread, which is Bengals -9, would you pay attention to these past trends in order to inform your choice?

 

[mcro_rave_2001]

some but nothing major, teams change, so going by past spread history would be a little factor but the biggest factor would be personnel.

 

[TDs3nOut]

some but nothing major, teams change, so going by past spread history would be a little factor but the biggest factor would be personnel.

Can't argue against that and that seems to fall squarely as a current factor. Still, since it's not clear to me that the Bengals, solely in terms of personnel, are 9-points better than the Bills, those trends against the spread still seem at least a bit enticing.

 

[mcro_rave_2001]

Can't argue against that and that seems to fall squarely as a current factor. Still, since it's not clear to me that the Bengals, solely in terms of personnel, are 9-points better than the Bills, those trends against the spread still seem at least a bit enticing.

i like to start with looking at the most important position on the field (QB) and going from there. IDK if 9 points is too high or too low, but i can tell you that the spread setters do a hell of a job because sport gambling makes the house a ton of money.

 

[BOTSLAYER]

everything points to this spread being inflated. also it is Thad's 2nd start so there is that. Bengals shut down the mighty Patriots and Bills just got proper stomped in Cleveland.

Take the points. Trends do show some history and for whatever reason the Bengals do not do well in Buffalo or against them as far as the spread is concerned.

 

[BOTSLAYER]

also spread is 7, 7.5 at the best and was never 9 anywhere. If you can get 9 take it all day!!!!


9 at -110 or better, obviously you can get it all day at -135+.

 

[TDs3nOut]

everything points to this spread being inflated. also it is Thad's 2nd start so there is that. Bengals shut down the mighty Patriots and Bills just got proper stomped in Cleveland.

Take the points. Trends do show some history and for whatever reason the Bengals do not do well in Buffalo or against them as far as the spread is concerned.

I think it's that whole "for whatever reason" feature of trend against the spread that relying on it seems like at least a bit of a desperation play. Still, I am leaning toward Buffalo and the points.

 

[TDs3nOut]

i like to start with looking at the most important position on the field (QB) and going from there. IDK if 9 points is too high or too low, but i can tell you that the spread setters do a hell of a job because sport gambling makes the house a ton of money.

Dalton>Lewis, right?

 

[BOTSLAYER]

Colin Coherd just cited Bengals road ATS record as a reason for picking them...he did not mention their road ATS record IN Buffalo.

he has been getting crushed this year and in an hour we will find out if RJ bell and the sharps like it...will be interesting.

 

[BOTSLAYER]

I think it's that whole "for whatever reason" feature of trend against the spread that relying on it seems like at least a bit of a desperation play. Still, I am leaning toward Buffalo and the points.

My for what ever reasons are usually coaches having an edge, unnoticed mathcup nightmares or lack of team motivation against a certain team that tends to be a bottom dweller...or even the detestable smell of Buffalo.

Not just no clue; just unlucky; etc.

 

[mcro_rave_2001]

Dalton>Lewis, right?

do you really need me to answer that question for you?