Is the NL playoff field already set?

[TDs3nOut]

As it stands now, Atlanta and LAD look to be locks to win their divisions. The NLC is still up for grabs, but the second and third place teams in that division have the inside track on locking up both wild card spots. I've been thinking all year that AZ would make the playoffs, but it's beginning to look to me as if that won't happen. What do you think?

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

The 5 teams certainly are set, but the NL Central is still very much in play for all three teams.

 

[TDs3nOut]

The 5 teams certainly are set, but the NL Central is still very much in play for all three teams.

I think that the word "certainly" might be too strong. Seems to me that the NLC teams are likely to play each other pretty closely down the stretch, possibly opening the door for AZ to win a wild card spot. Keys for AZ could be whether McCarthy closes out the season pitching as well as he did last night and how Cahill pitches when he returns next week. I definitely think that they have a shot, but they will have to continue to win at home and pick up the pace on the road.

 

[bravesfan]

The 5 teams certainly are set, but the NL Central is still very much in play for all three teams.

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

I think that the word "certainly" might be too strong. Seems to me that the NLC teams are likely to play each other pretty closely down the stretch, possibly opening the door for AZ to win a wild card spot. Keys for AZ could be whether McCarthy closes out the season pitching as well as he did last night and how Cahill pitches when he returns next week. I definitely think that they have a shot, but they will have to continue to win at home and pick up the pace on the road.

I guess it's realistic for it to happen, just high unlikely. The three central teams would have to really play evenly down the stretch and AZ would have to go on an absolute tear, or one of the three Central teams would have to just fall off a cliff. The Central teams are going to be pulling out all the stops to try and win the division and avoid the play-in game.

Since they're closest to each other, let's look at CIN & AZ.

Cincy has 74 wins and 30 games to play
AZ has 67 wins and 32 games to play. The games at hand certainly help AZ in this comparison.

Let's say Cincy gets beaten up a bit in the stretch run and goes 12-18. Arizona would need to go 20-12 to pass them. Doable, but like I said, unlikely, unless Cincy really just falls apart.

 

[TDs3nOut]

I guess it's realistic for it to happen, just high unlikely. The three central teams would have to really play evenly down the stretch and AZ would have to go on an absolute tear, or one of the three Central teams would have to just fall off a cliff. The Central teams are going to be pulling out all the stops to try and win the division and avoid the play-in game.

Since they're closest to each other, let's look at CIN & AZ.

Cincy has 74 wins and 30 games to play
AZ has 67 wins and 32 games to play. The games at hand certainly help AZ in this comparison.

Let's say Cincy gets beaten up a bit in the stretch run and goes 12-18. Arizona would need to go 20-12 to pass them. Doable, but like I said, unlikely, unless Cincy really just falls apart.

You are clearly right that Cincinnati is more likely than AZ to make it (e.g., the standings on ESPN.com report the Reds probability of making the playoffs as .872 and only .132 for AZ). However, I still think that it is far from "certain", as you initially wrote, that the field is already set.

In fact, things could get pretty interesting over the next eight days or so. During that span AZ plays eight home games against SD, SF, and Toronto, while the Reds are at St. Louis and CO before going home to face the Cards again. Since both teams have far better home than road records, I could see AZ having narrowed the gap from six to, say three games, with 24 left to play.

Might not be too likely, but like I wrote before, I think that McCarthy and Cahill are potential wild cards in the wild card race. We'll see. Might be worth revisiting in a week or so.

 

[Clayton]

The pitching is too good on the NL Central teams for the Diamondbacks to catch up so its pretty much set barring a major choke

 

[packerzrule]

The 2nd and 3rd place teams in the NL Central are better than any of the 2nd place teams in the remaining divisions.

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

The 2nd and 3rd place teams in the NL Central are better than any of the 2nd place teams in the remaining divisions.

I'm not sure about that. What about the Rays?

 

[romeo212000]

I'm not sure about that. What about the Rays?

Think he was referring to NL teams.

 

[packerzrule]

Think he was referring to NL teams.

Yahtzee

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

Think he was referring to NL teams.

Werd. My bad.

 

[TDs3nOut]

After one of the wilder finishes in a game I've seen this season, AZ finds itself only five games behind the Reds for that last playoff spot. Granted the AZ win was only against SD and it did highlight AZ's bullpen problems, but more so than ever, I'm not yet counting AZ out of the wild card race. No idea how the numbers are generated, but that win, combined with the Reds loss at St. Louis, resulted in the probability reported in the ESPN.com standings of AZ making the playoffs rise from .13 to .18.

 

[pixburgher66]

After one of the wilder finishes in a game I've seen this season, AZ finds itself only five games behind the Reds for that last playoff spot. Granted the AZ win was only against SD and it did highlight AZ's bullpen problems, but more so than ever, I'm not yet counting AZ out of the wild card race. No idea how the numbers are generated, but that win, combined with the Reds loss at St. Louis, resulted in the probability reported in the ESPN.com standings of AZ making the playoffs rise from .13 to .18.

I think the Reds are too good to give up that big of a lead. They have a tough schedule from here on out, but they just have too much talent. It'd take some major pitching issues.

 

[LASports96]

Yep, they're set

Only thing to be determined is who wins the Central and who gets the wildcards

 

[da55bums]

Werd. My bad.

where did you get the "werd" phrase and don't tell me on a t shirt? if so, thats getting too wierd..

 

[Beggs]

Diamond backs and Gnats both 7.5 back, both with a ~2% chance of getting a wild card spot.

Arizona and Washington both have 26 games left, 14 of those are away where they have a .447 winning percentage. Arizona is facing the hardest remaining schedule.

Cincy has 24 games left, 15 of them at home where they have a .652 winning percentage. This includes series against the Mets, Cubs, and Astros.

The field is set. The only thing unknown is who wins the central. Cardinals and Pirates still have another series, and the Reds still have 2 games against the Cards and 6 against the Pirates. The division is not even close to set.