Is Colin Kaepernick ready?

[Crimsoncrew]

How is Kap developing any of that from the sideline, though? As a backup he's gonna be getting 0 practice reps. How is touch developed from the bench? How is learning to avoid pressure acquired from the bench?

We're talking about a QB who ran for 1,000+ yards each of his last three seasons at Nevada. The potential he offers not only as a passer but a runner for a mediocre QB, IMO, makes this an easy choice.

He's not on the bench at practice. He's doing all the drills, and as the second team QB, he's regularly lining up against the first team defense. That's great experience and opportunity for him to develop his skills in a relatively safe environment. I could live with him starting, and if Smith had tanked last year it's an easy decision. But Smith improved, and had a great playoff game in which he basically willed us to victory at the end (granted with a lot of help from an elite receiving talent). Given where this team is right now, I'd go with Smith awhile longer and see what happens. If Kaepernick is the real deal, I trust our coaches to identify it. If they think he's ready, we'll see more of him.

 

[Flyingiguana]

So what exactly is he developing by sitting on the bench watching Smith another year?

he's learning the system, getting up to speed against nfl corners, working on fundamentals, etc.

he did come from a pistol offense, i'd bring him along much like pennington was brought along

 

[clyde_carbon]

they had nowhere near the season newton had

I wouldn't say Dalton had nowhere near the season that Newton had. Very similar QB ratings and completion percentages. Dalton also had a better TD/INT ratio.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I wouldn't say Dalton had nowhere near the season that Newton had. Very similar QB ratings and completion percentages. Dalton also had a better TD/INT ratio.

ypa was under 7 and aj green was just simply amazing. he's right up there with megatron and fitz when it comes to catching the ball

 

[clyde_carbon]

He's not on the bench at practice. He's doing all the drills, and as the second team QB, he's regularly lining up against the first team defense. That's great experience and opportunity for him to develop his skills in a relatively safe environment. I could live with him starting, and if Smith had tanked last year it's an easy decision. But Smith improved, and had a great playoff game in which he basically willed us to victory at the end (granted with a lot of help from an elite receiving talent). Given where this team is right now, I'd go with Smith awhile longer and see what happens. If Kaepernick is the real deal, I trust our coaches to identify it. If they think he's ready, we'll see more of him.

So he can only develop those aspects if he's sitting on the bench? Is it unfathomable that he can continue to get better while posting 195 yards and 1.1 TDs per game?

Ask any young QB in the NFL and they'll tell you they learn more, you know, actually playing the game.

 

[clyde_carbon]

he's learning the system, getting up to speed against nfl corners, working on fundamentals, etc.

he did come from a pistol offense, i'd bring him along much like pennington was brought along

I'd be fucking shocked if Kap doesn't know the system already. He's a smart kid, and he's had the playbook for a year now.

How is he gonna get up to speed with NFL corners if he's not throwing at them? Jedi mind tricks?

He can play and work on fundamentals at the same time. You know, kinda like the same thing Alex did last season.

 

[clyde_carbon]

ypa was under 7 and aj green was just simply amazing. he's right up there with megatron and fitz when it comes to catching the ball

Steve Smith was pretty good for Newton too. He's a monster getting YACs.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

So he can only develop those aspects if he's sitting on the bench? Is it unfathomable that he can continue to get better while posting 195 yards and 1.1 TDs per game?

Ask any young QB in the NFL and they'll tell you they learn more, you know, actually playing the game.

Of course he can learn it on the field. But if he learns it in practice, it will make for a quicker transition when he does get on the field. If this team had won seven or eight games, then you go with Kaepernick, take your lumps, and aim to be great in 2-3 years. We were great last year, so we stick with the winning formula and try to improve upon it.

And I have little doubt that he's capable of putting up bigger numbers than Smith in terms of yards and TDs. What worries me is what will almost certainly be a dramatic increase in turnovers. I'm not sure a 25% increase in yards and/or TDs is worth a likely 150% increase in turnovers. There's a chance Kaepernick takes fewer sacks, but as he's a rookie, it's tough to bank on that.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I'd be fucking shocked if Kap doesn't know the system already. He's a smart kid, and he's had the playbook for a year now.

How is he gonna get up to speed with NFL corners if he's not throwing at them? Jedi mind tricks?

He can play and work on fundamentals at the same time. You know, kinda like the same thing Alex did last season.

Two things:

1) I'd imagine that the playbook may be substantially bulked up this offseason, now that we've got several months to install it.

2) What exactly do you think a backup QB does at practice? Gets water for the starters?

 

[deep9er]

So he can only develop those aspects if he's sitting on the bench? Is it unfathomable that he can continue to get better while posting 195 yards and 1.1 TDs per game?

Ask any young QB in the NFL and they'll tell you they learn more, you know, actually playing the game.

no doubt, same as with almost ANY job in America, we need on the job training for our jobs. so yes, eventually Kap has to get in there and start the "real game" learning curve.

but why start Kap now if we end up with a better option? don't we want the best players to play? don't we want to give ourselves the best chance to win?

whereas you're speculating on what Kap can do, we KNOW what Alex Smith can do. its not as much as we want, but we know we can win.

 

[Jikkle]

That's a fair question. Another one is who gives us the best chance to win two, three, and four years from today, and how long to wait to find out?

If Kap starts this season, what are his projected yards and TDs per game? Is 200 yards and 1.5 TD per game fair?

If it wasn't for the lockout I would've been for starting CK this past season.

The problem is (and what a good problem to have) is we were 13-3 and very close to getting a shot at the Super Bowl so it's a tough sell to your team and fans to say "We're not going all in this season but we're going to take a hit for the sake of 2013 and beyond".

If we missed the playoffs and had an average season I would be all in for CK this seaon but now I'm more inclined to see how training camp plays out and make a call than. I expect both QBs to be better but the question is how much better are they going to be.

Yes CK will progress faster being in there but getting a full offseason work and another year absorbing the playbook isn't exactly going to hurt him either.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I'd be fucking shocked if Kap doesn't know the system already. He's a smart kid, and he's had the playbook for a year now.

How is he gonna get up to speed with NFL corners if he's not throwing at them? Jedi mind tricks?

He can play and work on fundamentals at the same time. You know, kinda like the same thing Alex did last season.

smith had years to adjust to playing under center and he took his lumps on a very bad team under some horrific coaches. sometimes he didn't even have a real coordinator.

i'd rather kap learn at a slower pace much like pennington did with the jets. i'm not convinced he is the qb of the future and would like to bring in josh johnson or jimmy clausen in another year if the panthers are willing tol take a late pick for him.

 

[maniax]

smith had years to adjust to playing under center and he took his lumps on a very bad team under some horrific coaches. sometimes he didn't even have a real coordinator.

i'd rather kap learn at a slower pace much like pennington did with the jets. i'm not convinced he is the qb of the future and would like to bring in josh johnson or jimmy clausen in another year if the panthers are willing tol take a late pick for him.

I realistically see 3 options:

1) Most conservative, safest option is stick with Alex Smith, you pretty much know what you are going to get, and he's become good at limiting turnovers and could improve into his 2nd year under current coaching staff, assuming we'll draft him another receiving threat and we are not losing any receiving threat he'll have more weapons on offense

2) Let Alex Smith go and go all-in and get Peyton Manning for a Superbowl run this year, if he's healthy

3) Go with CK

I really don't see us going after some backup QB. Forget about Josh Johnson, Clausen, all the other backups, I don't really see anything special there. I'd rather go with one of the 3 options above.

 

[deep9er]

I realistically see 3 options:

1) Most conservative, safest option is stick with Alex Smith, you pretty much know what you are going to get, and he's become good at limiting turnovers and could improve into his 2nd year under current coaching staff, assuming we'll draft him another receiving threat and we are not losing any receiving threat he'll have more weapons on offense

2) Let Alex Smith go and go all-in and get Peyton Manning for a Superbowl run this year, if he's healthy

3) Go with CK

I really don't see us going after some backup QB. Forget about Josh Johnson, Clausen, all the other backups, I don't really see anything special there. I'd rather go with one of the 3 options above.

another option is go all out and draft a higly rated QB. not a likely option, but technically an option.

for me, i see the Alex Smith option as the lesser of the evils.

 

[Flyingiguana]

i'd rather have someone outside of kap to develop. we can also see if smith can take the next step, if not i'd rather not have all my eggs in the kap basket.

if clausen works hard i expect big things from him. he's tough and a competitor, maybe his panthers experience will help him with that ego.

 

[Flyingiguana]

another option is go all out and draft a higly rated QB. not a likely option, but technically an option.

for me, i see the Alex Smith option as the lesser of the evils.

only guy we could get would be foles and i think he's be better in a system like the steelers

 

[threelittleturds]

I haven't seen enough to say, but he seemed to improve and almost led a TD drive in the Bucs game, which was a big jump from how bad he was in preseason. He's the guy I'm most excited about seeing in August. I'll let you know then, but a full year of work and playbook study should be good for him

 

[Flyingiguana]

even drunkenmiller led a td drive...

 

[clyde_carbon]

Of course he can learn it on the field. But if he learns it in practice, it will make for a quicker transition when he does get on the field. If this team had won seven or eight games, then you go with Kaepernick, take your lumps, and aim to be great in 2-3 years. We were great last year, so we stick with the winning formula and try to improve upon it.

And I have little doubt that he's capable of putting up bigger numbers than Smith in terms of yards and TDs. What worries me is what will almost certainly be a dramatic increase in turnovers. I'm not sure a 25% increase in yards and/or TDs is worth a likely 150% increase in turnovers. There's a chance Kaepernick takes fewer sacks, but as he's a rookie, it's tough to bank on that.

So what percentage increase in plays justifies that increase in turnovers?

I'm not stupid enough to argue that Kaepernick won't commit more turnovers than Smith. I'm sure that's a given. But honestly, Smith's turnover ratio was one of the greatest of all time - and I really don't see it going anywhere but down (or up, in this case).

Now, all what Kap needs to do to match Smith's plays is average 195 yards and 1.1 TD per game. I think Kap will AT LEAST average that. He'll also make many more plays running the football than Smith will, IMO. If Kap throws for 10 INTs, I think that's worth it.

 

[Flyingiguana]

So what percentage increase in plays justifies that increase in turnovers?

I'm not stupid enough to argue that Kaepernick won't commit more turnovers than Smith. I'm sure that's a given. But honestly, Smith's turnover ratio was one of the greatest of all time - and I really don't see it going anywhere but down (or up, in this case).

Now, all what Kap needs to do to match Smith's plays is average 195 yards and 1.1 TD per game. I think Kap will AT LEAST average that. He'll also make many more plays running the football than Smith will, IMO. If Kap throws for 10 INTs, I think that's worth it.

that's a lot of ifs