Interesting 2014 prediction formula

[Hook'Em0608]

I came up with a formula to predict records for each program for 2014. It is far from perfect and had some screwy results for major college football powers, but overall I like it. I used Sagarin ratings for the end of last year (only one I know that ranks every single D1 program including FCS), Phil Steele experience returning formula, and combined recruiting rankings for the years that should be on this years rosters. Each of the 3 categories counted equally.

This is the top 25 power ratings (far from what the end of the year will look like in actual ratings).

1. Auburn
2. Florida St
3. Oregon
4. South Carolina
5. UCLA
6. Oklahoma
7. Mississippi St
8. Ole Miss
9. Texas
10. Michigan St
11. USC
12. Washington
13. Georgia
14. Alabama
15. Indiana
16. Florida
17. Stanford
18. BYU
19. Houston
20. Baylor
21. TCU
22. Maryland
23. Iowa
24. Texas Tech
25. Texas A&M

Next 5:
Oregon St, Ohio St, Northwestern, Michigan, and Duke

I gave 10 points on the point system for home games and I will post each conferences season records predictions using this method.

 

[Hook'Em0608]

ACC

Atlantic
Florida St 13-0 (8-0) conference champion
Clemson 9-3 (7-1)
Louisville 9-3 (5-3)
Syracuse 7-5 (4-4)
Boston College 4-8 (2-6)
NC State 2-10 (1-7)
Wake Forest 1-11 (0-8)

Coastal
Duke 11-2 (7-1) conference runner up
Virginia 8-4 (6-2)
Miami 9-3 (5-3)
North Carolina 7-5 (4-4)
Virginia Tech 7-5 (4-4)
Pittsburgh 5-7 (2-6)
Georgia Tech 4-8 (1-7)

 

[occupant]

Bucky line starts here

 

[Hook'Em0608]

Big 12

Oklahoma 12-0 (9-0)
Texas 10-2 (8-1)
Baylor 10-2 (7-2)
TCU 9-3 (6-3)
Texas Tech 8-4 (5-4)
Kansas St 6-6 (4-5)
Oklahoma St 4-8 (3-6)
West Virginia 3-9 (2-7)
Iowa St 3-9 (1-8)
Kansas 2-10 (0-9)

 

[Hook'Em0608]

Big 10

Legends

Iowa 10-3 (6-2) conference runner up
Northwestern 10-2 (6-2)
Minnesota 9-3 (6-2)
Wisconsin 6-6 (3-5)
Nebraska 5-7 (2-6)
Illinois 5-7 (2-6)
Purdue 2-10 (0-8)

Leaders

Michigan St 12-1 (8-0) conference champs
Indiana 11-1 (7-1)
Maryland 9-3 (5-3)
Ohio St 8-4 (4-4)
Michigan 8-4 (4-4)
Rutgers 6-6 (3-5)
Penn St 4-8 (0-8)

 

[Hook'Em0608]

Pac 12

North

Oregon 12-1 (8-1) conference champs
Washington 11-2 (7-2)
Stanford 8-4 (5-4)
Oregon St 8-4 (5-4)
Washington St 3-9 (1-8)
California 2-10 (1-8)

South

UCLA 12-1 (9-0)
USC 11-1 (8-1)
Utah 6-6 (4-5)
Arizona 6-6 (4-5)
Arizona St 5-7 (2-7)
Colorado 3-9 (0-9)

 

[Hook'Em0608]

SEC SEC SEC

West

Auburn 13-0 (8-0)
Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1)
Miss St 10-2 (6-2)
Alabama 9-3 (5-3)
Texas A&M 7-5 (3-5)
Arkansas 5-7 (2-6)
LSU 5-7 (1-7)

East

South Carolina 11-2 (7-1)
Georgia 10-2 (6-2)
Florida 8-4 (5-3)
Missouri 6-6 (3-5)
Kentucky 5-7 (2-6)
Tennessee 4-8 (1-7)
Vanderbilt 4-8 (0-8)

 

[Hook'Em0608]

Independents

BYU 11-1
Navy 11-1
Army 10-2
Notre Dame 3-9

 

[Irish7478]

Indiana at 11-1 and ND at 3-9. It will be interesting to see how accurate these predictions are.

 

[occupant]

I admire your tenacity in finding a combination that got texas squeezed into the top 10.

Bravo!!!

 

[Hook'Em0608]

American

Houston 11-1 (8-0)
Cincinnati 9-3 (7-1)
Memphis 8-4 (6-2)
UCF 7-5 (6-2)
USF 7-5 (5-3)
East Carolina 6-6 (5-3)
Tulane 4-8 (3-5)
Connecticut 3-9 (2-6)
Temple 2-10 (1-7)
Tulsa 1-11 (1-7)
SMU 0-12 (0-8)

 

[The Crimson King]

Playoffs?

Florida State vs Oregon
Auburn vs Oklahoma

 

[Hook'Em0608]

Indiana at 11-1 and ND at 3-9. It will be interesting to see how accurate these predictions are.

I don't think they are gonna be all that accurate in some cases...

 

[Hook'Em0608]

Playoffs?

Florida State vs Oregon
Auburn vs Oklahoma

Yep

 

[Hook'Em0608]

I admire your tenacity in finding a combination that got texas squeezed into the top 10.

Bravo!!!

I admire your tenacity in living in a meth induced trailer park coma and still responding to my post!

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

The Big 10 would have one hell of an awkward year if that all played out that way.

Still though, it's fun to come up with formulas. I usually put my own thing together each year so we'll have to compare our results when I do mine.

 

[charlie42s]

I admire your tenacity in finding a combination that got texas squeezed into the top 10.

Bravo!!!

Texas has a lot of returning starters, question marks at critical positions(QB & RB) and a new coaching regime. 7 returning starters on offense and 8 on defense.

 

[occupant]

Texas has a lot of returning starters, question marks at critical positions(QB & RB) and a new coaching regime. 7 returning starters on offense and 8 on defense.

So you agree with his findings?

Just want to be clear here.

 

[Hook'Em0608]

MWC

Mountain

Boise St 10-3 (8-0) Conference Champs
Colorado St 8-4 (5-3)
Air Force 7-5 (5-3)
Utah St 7-6 (4-4)
New Mexico 5-7 (3-5)
Wyoming 3-9 (1-7)

West

Nevada 8-5 (7-1) conference runner up
UNLV 8-5 (7-1)
Fresno St 5-7 (4-4)
San Diego St 3-9 (2-6)
San Jose St 2-10 (1-7)
Hawaii 2-11 (1-7)

 

[Hook'Em0608]

I don't think anybody cares about the rest. UTSA and La. Lafayette are sleeper teams this year though.