Injury updates and Buster Posey

[LHG]

I didn't want to create two threads so I put these together, both from ESPN -
Matt Cain of San Francisco Giants placed on disabled list with nerve irritation in elbow
Looks like Cain is willing to pitch in relief when he comes back and it sounds like he will come back in September. Pagan's return has been pushed to Sept. 1st and Panik may be another week at least before returning. Nothing about Pence. I really hope he is healthy enough to return this year.

Also, there's an insider article about why Posey should be NL MVP - Why Buster Posey is the National League MVP - MLB. I don't have a subscription there so I don't know what the author says as to why Posey should be MVP? What do you all think? Do we really have a battery that could contend for NL MVP and Cy Young in 2015?

 

[calsnowskier]

CY, no.

MVP, Posey would need to come on REALLY strong to be a major contender, I think. At this point, Bum may get more MVP votes than Posey.

Then again, I have not looked at the contenders for MVP in about a month or so. Harper WAS running away with it, but Washingtons nose dive HAS to hurt his chances. With 5 teams per league making the playoffs, it is really hard to give the MVP to a player in a non-playoff team, IMHO.

 

[LHG]

CY, no.

MVP, Posey would need to come on REALLY strong to be a major contender, I think. At this point, Bum may get more MVP votes than Posey.

Then again, I have not looked at the contenders for MVP in about a month or so. Harper WAS running away with it, but Washingtons nose dive HAS to hurt his chances. With 5 teams per league making the playoffs, it is really hard to give the MVP to a player in a non-playoff team, IMHO.

My take had more to do with a battery that were being talked about in the two big awards. I've already shared my thoughts about Bumgarner elsewhere.

Looking at the contenders in the NL (no more than 5 games out of their division and/or wild cards spots), here are the slash lines for the top two hitters on each team (qualification is at least 400 at bats with the team):
Mets (NL East leader) - Lucas Duda .247/.346/.472 & Curtis Granderson .258/.354/.457
Cardinals (NL Central leader) - Matt Carpenter .258/.358/.457 & Jason Heyward .286/.344/.433
Pirates (3 games in Central, first wild card) - Andrew McCutchen .304/.405/.522 & Jung Ho Kang .291/.365/.460
Cubs (second wild card) - Anthony Rizzo .287/.394/.535 & Kris Bryant .262/.364/.476
Dodgers (NL West leader) - Adrian Gonzalez .286/.359/.507 & Joc Pederson .213/.356/.438
Giants (2.5 games in West) - Buster Posey .313/.371/.471 & Brandon Belt .276/.354/.482

My thought is that Andrew McCutchen is the front runner but Posey isn't that far back.

 

[moxie]

Also, there's an insider article about why Posey should be NL MVP - Why Buster Posey is the National League MVP - MLB. I don't have a subscription there so I don't know what the author says as to why Posey should be MVP? What do you all think? Do we really have a battery that could contend for NL MVP and Cy Young in 2015?

This summer has been incredible in terms of young player performances. Every few weeks, it seems like a rookie such as Carlos Correa or Kyle Schwarber is promoted to the majors and makes an immediate impact.

That youth movement may be best captured by 22-year-old Bryce Harper, who has silenced his critics with a breakout fourth season. Harper's offense has been 97 percent better than the league average, the best in baseball by 19 percent. He also leads the NL with 31 home runs. Since May, Harper has been a clear-cut favorite to win the NL MVP. If Harper fails to win the MVP, it will likely be due to the Nationals' team collapse. On July 5, they were 10 games over .500 and 4.5 games up in the NL East. Now, they are two games over .500 and 6.5 games behind in the division. Because of the lack of consensus on what "value" means in the context of the award, voters may hold it against Harper should the Nationals fail to reach the postseason.

Value should represent the estimated runs a player produces or saves for his team relative to the type of player his team would likely rely on without him. Given that stance, one might assume I would be in complete support of Harper for the award, but there is another candidate who has done even more for his team this season. That player is Giants catcher and 2012 MVP winner Buster Posey. Posey falls well short of Harper and several other candidates in home runs and several other popular offensive statistics, but the range of his contributions, and the importance of them in context, bridges the gap between his value and the best of the other candidates. Here are the many ways that Posey has helped the Giants.
His bat
On their own, Posey's .315/.371/.474 triple-slash line and 16 home runs are impressive. They become more impressive when you compare them to the other catchers in baseball. Posey's offensive contributions are 37 percent better than an average player's, and no other qualified catcher is even 20 percent better. Meanwhile, Posey's moderate power looks far more impressive when you consider how difficult it is to hit home runs in AT&T Park, where he plays half of his games.

Most Difficult Parks To Hit Home Runs, 2012-14
PARK HR INDEX
Giants (AT&T Park) 66
Pirates (PNC Park) 68
Marlins (Marlins Park) 72
Angels (Angel Stadium of Anaheim) 83
Nationals (Nationals Park) 84

AT&T Park has allowed 34 percent fewer home runs than an average park between 2012 and 2014 according to the Bill James Handbook. Only two other parks have limited home runs more than 20 percent above that of an average park. Nationals Park is also pitcher-friendly, but the difference in degree makes it clear that Posey's offensive numbers are hurt more by his situation than Harper's are.
His arm
Even with context, Posey's offensive contributions trail Harper's and several other candidates'. However, defensively, few players can beat Posey. It begins with his throwing arm. Posey has thrown out 17 baserunners attempting to steal against just 28 successful steals. The resulting 37.8 percent caught stealing rate is tied for the highest among catchers with at least 600 innings this season.

Best Catcher Caught Stealing Rates, 2015
CATCHER CS /STOLEN BASES/ CATCHER CS RATE
Buster Posey 17- 28- 37.8
James McCann 17- 28- 37.8
Rene Rivera 20- 24- 37.0
Brian McCann 20- 25- 36.4
Yadier Molina 17- 30- 36.2
Minimum of 600 innings

More than just generating outs, Posey's arm prevents runners from attempting to steal bases in the first place. Only Wilson Ramos, Yadier Molina and J.T. Realmuto have seen a lower rate of stolen bases attempted per inning caught among NL catchers with at least 600 innings.
His glove
Posey's impact with his glove is more subtle than his impact with his arm, but it is much more valuable. First, he has blocked 37 pitches in the dirt against just four passed balls and 17 wild pitch misplays -- failures to block pitches in the dirt that allow baserunners to advance. That combines for the second-highest catcher block rate among catchers with 600 innings.

Best Catcher Block Rate, 2015
CATCHER BLOCKS/PASSED BALLS/ WILD PITCH MISPLAYS /BLOCK RATE
Wilson Ramos 334 - 1 - 17 - 94.9%
Buster Posey 337- 4- 17- 94.2%
Robinson Chirinos 336- 4- 18- 93.9%
Derek Norris 531- 11- 24- 93.8%
Salvador Perez 486- 4 -33- 92.9%
Minimum of 600 innings

Each wild pitch misplay and passed ball allows a runner advancement that is functionally equivalent to a stolen base. That means that when a catcher likeBrian McCann has 47 wild pitch misplays -- which he does this season -- it counterbalances the success he has against stolen base attempts. Perhaps the least obvious way that Posey helps the Giants defensively is also the way that helps them the most. Posey is an excellent pitch framer, which Baseball Info Solutions measures with a statistic called strike zone runs saved. That measurement rewards catchers for drawing extra strike calls and penalizes them for extra ball calls relative to the historical likelihood that similar pitches would be called a strike or ball. Based on that measure, Posey has saved the team seven runs with his framing, which is close to a full extra win based on the standard conversion of 10 runs per extra win.

Most Strike Zone Runs Saved, 2015
Tyler Flowers 14
Mike Zunino 8
Buster Posey 7
Jason Castro 7
Miguel Montero 7
Francisco Cervelli 7
Yasmani Grandal 7
Minimum of 600 innings

For many voters, the factor that may tip the scale is the Giants' playoff push. They are only 2.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. Still, based on his offensive and defensive contributions, Posey can make a strong case for the award no matter where the Giants and Nationals finish in the standings.

 

[moxie]

The rest of the top five candidates:

• Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals: One of the greatest things about Harper is that, even with his incredible offensive prowess, he is not one-dimensional. In fact, Harper has saved the Nationals 10 runs with his defense in right field thanks to his well above-average range and his throwing arm. He has thrown out six baserunners without the use of a relay man, which is tied for the most in the NL.

• Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks: It is difficult to imagine Goldschmidt winning the award instead of Harper because their candidacies are so similar and Harper has a few clear advantages. The Diamondbacks likely will not make the playoffs, and Goldschmidt's .329/.444/.567 line is very similar to Harper's .334/.460/.639 one. Improbably, Goldschmidt's biggest edge is his 20 stolen bases, 14 more than Harper. But Harper has six more home runs despite seven fewer games, and Harper plays a more difficult defensive position.

• Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: The biggest obstacle for Greinke's MVP candidacy -- apart from the historical leaning of voters toward position players over pitchers -- is the excellence of his staff-mate Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw's peripheral statistics, like his 11.3 strikeouts per nine and 1.6 walks per nine, are as good as or better than they've ever been, including last season when he won the award. For whatever reason, Kershaw's dominance has not translated quite as well to team success. In contrast, Greinke has a minuscule 1.61 ERA, and while that is built somewhat on unsustainable success in factors like strand rate and home run-per-fly ball rate, that success has still happened this season and helped the Dodgers win his starts.

• Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs: With a .287/.395/.531 triple slash, Anthony Rizzo does not quite measure up to either Harper or Goldschmidt, but Rizzo has the advantage of being the most established great player on the fourth-best team in baseball (by win-loss record). If the Cubs can continue their surprising success and reach the postseason, then Rizzo may benefit from that narrative, especially if several of the other best candidates' teams fall short of the playoffs.

 

[calsnowskier]

I actually took a look at the leaders (not an exhaustive look, but more than a glance) after the post earlier.

There really is not a run-away player on any of the 6 contending teams in the NL. If I had to vote right now, I may be forced to go with Harper, even though one of my "rules" is that the MVP has to come from a playoff team.

But, if we have to limit to the 6 teams (which is my preference)...

McCutchen
Crawford
Posey
Rizzo
Gonzalez

I don't think anyone outside of this group should get any real consideration. And the longer Crawford is out, the harder it is to include him on this list. Further, the loser of the LA/SF battle will have their contenders removed.

 

[filosofy29]

If I see one more game like today, I think I may injure Adrianza.

 

[LHG]

If I see one more game like today, I think I may injure Adrianza.

Why? You want Brandon Hicks starting at 2nd base?

 

[filosofy29]

Why? You want Brandon Hicks starting at 2nd base?

Hadn't really thought that far.....just don't have much patience for players who are awful at offense and defense.

 

[calsnowskier]

Hicks' defense is solid, and at least he runs into one every once in a while.

EA isn't bringing anything to the table.

 

[msgkings322]

Hicks' defense is solid, and at least he runs into one every once in a while.

EA isn't bringing anything to the table.

EA is a reminder about how lucky we've been with call-ups. They aren't supposed to work out as often as Panik, Duffy, Susac (fading?), KT, Heston, Osich, etc. You're supposed to have some whiffs like EA, way more than we have lately.