I'm about to take some melatonin...

[cincygrad]

Very possible. The reality is - he's been a good, not great, kicker.

His 1st year, the SB run year, he was 15-21 from 40+. He hit the big ones, though, and that carries a lot of weight in the memory of everyone.

The next year, he was actually better going 14-18 from 40+ including a 5-5 from 50+, though he did have his only career miss from under 30 that season, and was technically down on FG%...his leg, and distance accuracy, was better.

Last year he was 15-20 from 40+ and was 7-12 from 50+. That's still a pretty good clip from 50+, I'm guessing in the grand scheme of NFL kickers.

This year is where he's really struggled because, maybe, a lot of his misses have been in tight spots/game on the line kind of situations (see 1st year big kicks made) and are fresh in the memory. If he kicks a few more from 40+ and makes them, he'd be right in line with his usual numbers. Where he's seen the biggest hit is from 50+ where he's 3-7 this year, and from last year. His first 2 years he was 14-16 from 50+. The past 2 years he's 10-19. That's a big time drop, and isn't just this year.

Now, can he get back into that 90% range? Maybe, but he's going to have to make his next 3 from 50+ just to get to 60% on the year. The numbers aren't in his favor since I don't know how you can continue to have him kicking from 50% when a miss from the 38-40-ish means the other team is starting darn near mid-field.

If he was in that mid/high 80% or into the 90/100 that he was in years 1 & 2 - you can give it a go...but being 75% last year, and 42% this year....

Also an interesting caveat: There is an "out" clause in the contract after this year - apparently the Bengals can cut without any dead money - so maybe they do let him kick to see if he can right himself, or if they want to simply move on.

I don't know...but the misses from 50+ started last year, and has crept into this year in a big way.

I think most of the positive feelings come from his playoff stats. 19-19, including two game winners will do that. But, he has had some shaky moments in the regular season throughout his career and those don't seem to be going anywhere. I was definitely in favor of extending him, but I'm also fine with taking a closer look at the end of the year. I think of kickers a lot like I think of golfers - Sometimes they lose it. That doesn't mean they don't get it back.... The league is littered with kickers that failed in one city and then became stars in another city. But, sometimes they don't. And you really can't have a team with postseason aspirations being plagued by a kicker with the yips. I know some will mention that we lost by 7 the other night, but the truth of the matter is that those missed field goals played a huge role in the loss. Given the Chargers own tortured history, getting a 3 point lead late would have put a lot of pressure on that offense that was already struggling. Missing the kick twice was a real stomach punch.

That brings up my last point.... There have been multiple Bengals losses the last couple of years that began with a Mac miss. I think missing a field goal in the modern NFL is a big deal and swings momentum more than most people believe. It's one thing to miss a 60 yarder at the end of the 2nd quarter. But missing from 50 in the flow of the game costs you 3 points and field position. It's a game changer.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I think most of the positive feelings come from his playoff stats. 19-19, including two game winners will do that. But, he has had some shaky moments in the regular season throughout his career and those don't seem to be going anywhere. I was definitely in favor of extending him, but I'm also fine with taking a closer look at the end of the year. I think of kickers a lot like I think of golfers - Sometimes they lose it. That doesn't mean they don't get it back.... The league is littered with kickers that failed in one city and then became stars in another city. But, sometimes they don't. And you really can't have a team with postseason aspirations being plagued by a kicker with the yips. I know some will mention that we lost by 7 the other night, but the truth of the matter is that those missed field goals played a huge role in the loss. Given the Chargers own tortured history, getting a 3 point lead late would have put a lot of pressure on that offense that was already struggling. Missing the kick twice was a real stomach punch.

That brings up my last point.... There have been multiple Bengals losses the last couple of years that began with a Mac miss. I think missing a field goal in the modern NFL is a big deal and swings momentum more than most people believe. It's one thing to miss a 60 yarder at the end of the 2nd quarter. But missing from 50 in the flow of the game costs you 3 points and field position. It's a game changer.

Justin Tucker has missed 6 FG's this year also. A lot of missed FG's by good kickers this year. Now, there are many kickers doing quite well too. I am just saying he is not on an island. That game sucked. That was mCPhersons fault that we could put the pressure on LA. If he makes that first FG, they are forced to try and go for 4th down, they may or may not get it. If they don't, well, now it is clock run out time when the Bengals get the ball back on LA's side of the field. Or, they go for it, keep converting, wind up getting a TD, and the game is changed in that way. We don't know what chain reaction that made FG makes. Either way, our defense put us in a whole in the first half, and our offense also didn't play well in half one. If one or the other could have played better in the first half, we may be talking a different story here.

Offense was crap in first half
Defense was crap in first half
McPherson was crap at end of game
So as much as we like to point directly at Evan, he was only 1 of three pieces that struggle at a certain time in that game. His just makes it easier point to.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Justin Tucker has missed 6 FG's this year also. A lot of missed FG's by good kickers this year. Now, there are many kickers doing quite well too. I am just saying he is not on an island. That game sucked. That was mCPhersons fault that we could put the pressure on LA. If he makes that first FG, they are forced to try and go for 4th down, they may or may not get it. If they don't, well, now it is clock run out time when the Bengals get the ball back on LA's side of the field. Or, they go for it, keep converting, wind up getting a TD, and the game is changed in that way. We don't know what chain reaction that made FG makes. Either way, our defense put us in a whole in the first half, and our offense also didn't play well in half one. If one or the other could have played better in the first half, we may be talking a different story here.

Offense was crap in first half
Defense was crap in first half
McPherson was crap at end of game
So as much as we like to point directly at Evan, he was only 1 of three pieces that struggle at a certain time in that game. His just makes it easier point to.

FWIW - Tucker has been around FOREVER...

Feels like the end is nigh for him, IMO - but we'll see....

He was drafted in 2012 - so 12 years...and at some point, you just start to lose that power. When you try and make up for it, it cost you the long-accuracy. Dude was the best for a solid 10 years...it doesn't break my heart to see him suck now...lol

 

[cincygrad]

FWIW - Tucker has been around FOREVER...

Feels like the end is nigh for him, IMO - but we'll see....

He was drafted in 2012 - so 12 years...and at some point, you just start to lose that power. When you try and make up for it, it cost you the long-accuracy. Dude was the best for a solid 10 years...it doesn't break my heart to see him suck now...lol

Again, I think there is a good analogy to golf. When you get older, you aren't as athletic and your margin for error is slimmer. I agree that this is what you're seeing with Tucker. He's a smart kicker though - I bet if he were to retool the way he kicks, he could continue to be very reliable from 50 and within - Much like Adam Vineteri (sp.) as he changed a lot in his later years. Jury is out though.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Again, I think there is a good analogy to golf. When you get older, you aren't as athletic and your margin for error is slimmer. I agree that this is what you're seeing with Tucker. He's a smart kicker though - I bet if he were to retool the way he kicks, he could continue to be very reliable from 50 and within - Much like Adam Vineteri (sp.) as he changed a lot in his later years. Jury is out though.

Yep. Money from about 43 and in...but those 48+ days are likely gone from an accuracy standpoint.

Quest becomes - how much do you spend on a kicker who can't reliably kick from 45 vs a younger leg, who might not be quite as accurate from <40 but better from >40.

 

[cincygrad]

Yep. Money from about 43 and in...but those 48+ days are likely gone from an accuracy standpoint.

Quest becomes - how much do you spend on a kicker who can't reliably kick from 45 vs a younger leg, who might not be quite as accurate from <40 but better from >40.

I also think this raises an interesting question about the relative value of kickers. I think the kicking is still confusing for some of us "older" fans that remember the days when anything outside of 40 yards was a coin toss. Hell, growing up the real value of Jim Breech was that he never missed anything under 40.... But, he wasn't all that reliable beyond 40 and had almost no chance at all at 50. I don't think they even tried anything beyond 50.

Look at the kicking stats this year. For kickers that have played more than 8 games, the 20th best guy in the league is hitting 83% of kicks. This is the 20th best guy in the league! Unless you have a generational talent like Tucker, I don't think it makes much sense to be patient with a guy that isn't living up to the standard. There are just too many 'average' kickers that will provide the same or better performance at a better value.

This is the Bengals.... So, we'll probably just honor Mac's contract, even if he struggles to hit 80% over the next couple of years.