I called this

[deanpet21]

Agree FM was picked in case Breeland left. But Norman is over paid and not as good as you think. And they just traded the guy that SHOULD have replaced Breeland. So Morue should have been the guy to step into the slot when Fuller moved to the outside.

Actually Fuller wasn't moving to the outside. He was the slot CB. I trade a slot Cb any day to get a good QB. Its a no brainer and I think it will pay off.

 

[j_y19]

No shit. In the matter of 2 off seasons. Allen/Snyder just fuckin mangled what was just a short time ago. Strengths of the team in WR and CB via apathy and laziness it almost appears.

That's almost shocking. You telling me that Allen is making this team worse? That's just really hard to believe.

 

[Breed]

That's almost shocking. You telling me that Allen is making this team worse? That's just really hard to believe.

Yeah, I can dig it. I sometimes freak myself out with my uncanny insights.

 

[Breed]

Actually Fuller wasn't moving to the outside. He was the slot CB. I trade a slot Cb any day to get a good QB. Its a no brainer and I think it will pay off.

Maybe we should start calling you that. No-Brainer

Fuller is considered to be the Chiefs best CB at present. Kendall Fuller is now the Chiefs best cornerback Hell, it isn't crazy to think he could've already been or would become the Redskins best CB at some point in the upcoming season.

 

[deanpet21]

Maybe we should start calling you that. No-Brainer

Fuller is considered to be the Chiefs best CB at present. Kendall Fuller is now the Chiefs best cornerback Hell, it isn't crazy to think he could've already been or would become the Redskins best CB at some point in the upcoming season.

that is crazy breed

 

[skinsdad62]

Actually Fuller wasn't moving to the outside. He was the slot CB. I trade a slot Cb any day to get a good QB. Its a no brainer and I think it will pay off.

actually he was talked about moving outside . and slot corners face some of the toughest wrs in the game , julian edleman being just one ,

if the qb was say 27 yrs old it would be a no brainer , a 34 yr old is just plain dumb

 

[deanpet21]

actually he was talked about moving outside . and slot corners face some of the toughest wrs in the game , julian edleman being just one ,

if the qb was say 27 yrs old it would be a no brainer , a 34 yr old is just plain dumb

age has nothing to do with it. Already gave examples.

 

[skinsdad62]

age has nothing to do with it. Already gave examples.

it most certainly does and what examples did you give ?

 

[skinsdad62]

tony romo done with football age 35 , dmac out of the nfl age 36 , in decline age 34 when we got him , joe flacco age 33 in decline eli manning age 37 in decline for 3 years . the list goes on and one

history suggests that more often then not by a substantial margin qbs decline in their mid 30's . great ones like PM TB and WM and DB havent but they are exceptions not the rule

 

[skinsdad62]

The Age of Decline - Quarterbacks | PFF News & Analysis | Pro Football Focus

this here study says qb produce siolid numbers from 25 -36 yrs old

 

[skinsdad62]

-At age 36, Dan Marino saw his decline. His quarterback rating dropped to 80.7, his touchdowns plummeted to 17, and only in his rookie year did he produce fewer passing yards in a full season. He lasted two more seasons before retirement.

- Joe Montana's career may as well have ended at 35. His numbers plummeted in 1990 — just a year removed from one of the finest seasons ever put together by a QB (26 TDs and 8 INT in just 13 games with a 112.4 QB rating in 1989).

He played in one final game in San Francisco at age 36 before ending his career in mediocre fashion in Kansas City (two seasons, 29 combined touchdown passes).

- Troy Aikman’s demise occurred so abruptly at age 34 that he retired after tossing just 7 touchdowns against 14 interceptions in 2000.

- Terry Bradshaw threw in the towel at 35, after two injury plagued seasons.

- Johnny Unitas, whose longevity in the league is well-documented -- he played 17 seasons from 1956 to 1973 -- began to break down at 35. He only played in five games that year and didn’t start a single one. His play never recovered as he sludged through four more mediocre seasons with Baltimore before doing the unthinkable, leaving to sputter out in San Diego.

- Fran Tarkenton's decline came at 37 -- in 1977 he only played in nine games. He ended things the next season.

- Even Steve Young, who in essence got a late start after waiting for Montana to break down, had his last hurrah at age 37 before the concussions got to him.

The examples are endless: Joe Namath (34), Bart Starr (36), Roger Staubach (37), Jim Kelly (36), Otto Graham (34), Dan Fouts (36, dropped off at 35), Sammy Baugh (dropped off at 36 and fizzled until the end at 38), Len Dawson (dropped off at 34), Bob Griese (35) — it goes on and on.

At 34, George Blanda threw 36 touchdowns. At age 35, he threw 42 interceptions, the most ever in a season.

It is the natural course taken by almost all the greats — father time chimes in around age 35 or 36.

There are a few legendary quarterbacks who have had continued success past age 35, but they can be counted on one hand: Warren Moon, John Elway, Kurt Warner (late start) and Brett Favre.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[skinsdad62]

Quarterbacks

The quarterback is the most important, most protected position on the field, and it shows. The average starting quarterback plays about two seasons more than the average player at any other position.

Let's look at how quarterbacks develop and decline:

This dramatically shows the late start and slow development of quarterbacks. See how there are zero 22-year-old quarterbacks who've started 14 NFL games since 1978? From 23 to 24, 24 to 25 and 25 to 26, there was a massive leap in understanding with each generation.

At age 25, quarterbacks hit a long plateau; the number of them who start 14-plus games from age 25 to 30 is almost unchanged. The curve stays quite flat on the back end; quarterbacks good enough to be perennial starters have little trouble staying employed.


Is their performance that consistent? Let's check out their average Approximate Values:

There are a few very interesting things going on here. First, an across-the-board jump from year one to year two; quarterbacks who start both their rookie and sophomore seasons put up a significantly higher peak, average and low AV in their second season.

That low value continues to jump up and down around the number five for most of the rest of the chart; the weird dip in year five is due to an outlier, Ron Jaworski's 1978. He started every game, but produced an AV of only one; the next-lowest value for a fifth-year starter was four.

Peak AV climbs very steadily from year three to year eight; the best quarterbacks get steadily better, even as the average and low values stay flat.

At year 10, there's a significant drop-off in peak AV, then a steady decline to year 15. The average, however, begins to trend upward as the poorer starters stop playing. The elites aren't producing like elites anymore, but they're still very good and make up the majority of quarterbacks with careers that long.

At year 16, it dwindles down to just a handful of quarterbacks, so the peak drops sharply and the floor rises too. The last data point is just Favre being Favre.


What if we look at the same values, but broken down by age? Is there a magic age when quarterbacks get worse?

This chart is a lot more volatile. The eye is drawn to the big dip in peak AV at age 29; this appears to just be a weird coincidence and not part of a larger trend (it's surrounded by very high AV values). Look at the jump from age 36 to age 37, though: High, average and low AV all take a big jump up—and then a huge dip. By 40, everyone but Favre is gone.

smith is in year 12

 

[skinsdad62]

Breaking Down Production Over Time

There are a million ways to judge production, but only one gives us a one-number figure that compares across positions, seasons and even decades: Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value.

As explained in the series of posts that link takes you to, AV is one back-of-the-napkin number for a player's total production over a season, adjusted by their share of their team's production. These numbers aren't super precise, just a good rough guess of how productive and valuable a player was in any given season.


For each of the position groups, we can break down average AV for rookies, second-year players, third-year players and so on, giving us a picture of how players at certain positions tend to develop and decline.

Again, let's limit the sample player-seasons to 1978 and after, assuring apples-to-apples season lengths and similar offensive rules. The sets will be limited to players-seasons with at least 14 starts (and qualifying levels of attempts, the ones PFR uses for their rate stat minimums).

For some of the positions with the most variance, I've done the same analysis but with age, as well as years of NFL experience.

this explains AV

 

[skinsdad62]

Quarterback Age Curves

Alex Smith? He was just 28 last year, and thus enters the magical age 29 season in 2013. Even if you ignore his Harbaugh years, he averaged 6.1 NY/A and 5.6 ANY/A in 2010 at the age of 26. Both of those numbers were just a hair below league-average. Smith wasn’t that much different statistically in 2011 than he was in 2010; it just so happened that San Francisco allowed 22.4 points per game in his 10 starts in 2010 and just 14.3 in 2011. And in fact, outside of an incredible (and presumably unsustainable) interception rate, he was better in 2010 than 2011.

A passer who is average at 26 should be expected to be a bit above-average at age 29. One-seventh of the quarterbacks in the study – Ron Jaworski, Pastorini, Mark Rypien, Neil O’Donnell, Marc Bulger, Gary Danielson, Kordell Stewart, Archie Manning, Ken Stabler, Jake Delhomme, and Troy Aikman — were at their best that season.

But that shouldn’t make Chiefs fans too excited, because the other side of the coin makes the Smith trade look questionable. Smith should only be expected to be at his peak in 2013 and 2014, and the decline period can be pretty steep. Elvis Grbac, another 49er-turned-Chief, had his best season at age 30 with the Chiefs, struggled at age 31 with the Ravens, was released by Baltimore, and ultimately chose to retire.

this when smith was at age 28 not 34 he is now

 

[deanpet21]

A lot of those guys you stated had major injury issues. We are fine with Smith. He is a more than capable QB to help us win. Better than TT by a mile.

 

[skinsdad62]

A lot of those guys you stated had major injury issues. We are fine with Smith. He is a more than capable QB to help us win. Better than TT by a mile.

dont let things like facts get in the way right dean ? never mind that injuries happen more often and take longer to heal in older players

you said age didnt matter , i quite clearly put up names and numbers and graphs that contradict that statement soundly

my point is this dean again , case , bradford TT bridgewater all can get us to 3rd place in the NFC east just like CDC and not cost us player or draft capitol

CDC is 34 , he wont get better , everyone on the above list is still in or just entering their prime years

the better thing to do was to sign a FA qb then draft the future one

not trading for an avg qb giving up a 10 year starting cb , a 3rd round pick and guarantee him 71 mil who is 34 years old with the only benefit being to the SDFC is it hastened KC's departure from DC

now the expectations have gone from 1 playoff win ,to at least as good , and now being satisfied for being in 3rd place and treading water at a cheaper price

bravo , our quest for the status quo is complete

 

[chillerdab]

Don't be ridiculous. It takes two to tango. KC wants big money and isn't worth $30 million a year to ANY team.

The Vikes don't need him (already have a great team, already had a great cheap qb).
The Jets won't be that much better if they do sign him, considering how bad their oline is, and their complete lack of playmakers (Robby Anderson and....?????)
The Cardinals can't afford him, and ALSO need to fix their oline.
The Broncos can't afford him, and have a bad running game.

KC is chasing the money. Good for the Redskins for not plunking down $30 million to get him.

 

[skinsdad62]

Don't be ridiculous. It takes two to tango. KC wants big money and isn't worth $30 million a year to ANY team.

The Vikes don't need him (already have a great team, already had a great cheap qb).
The Jets won't be that much better if they do sign him, considering how bad their oline is, and their complete lack of playmakers (Robby Anderson and....?????)
The Cardinals can't afford him, and ALSO need to fix their oline.
The Broncos can't afford him, and have a bad running game.

KC is chasing the money. Good for the Redskins for not plunking down $30 million to get him.

what did my above post have to do with KC and 30 mil a year ? he wasnt even mentioned .

 

[chillerdab]

You are alluding to the fact that the redskins are returning to status quo by trading for Alex Smith, who you call "check down charlie."

I pointed out that KC isn't worth the $30 million he is going to get on the open market.

You inferred that trading and signing for Alex Smith is a downgrade from KC, because of the capital it took to get Alex Smith.

Inferential thinking skills are awesome.

 

[deanpet21]

dont let things like facts get in the way right dean ? never mind that injuries happen more often and take longer to heal in older players

you said age didnt matter , i quite clearly put up names and numbers and graphs that contradict that statement soundly

my point is this dean again , case , bradford TT bridgewater all can get us to 3rd place in the NFC east just like CDC and not cost us player or draft capitol

CDC is 34 , he wont get better , everyone on the above list is still in or just entering their prime years

the better thing to do was to sign a FA qb then draft the future one

not trading for an avg qb giving up a 10 year starting cb , a 3rd round pick and guarantee him 71 mil who is 34 years old with the only benefit being to the SDFC is it hastened KC's departure from DC

now the expectations have gone from 1 playoff win ,to at least as good , and now being satisfied for being in 3rd place and treading water at a cheaper price

bravo , our quest for the status quo is complete

I cant give you a prediction until FA and the draft is over. We are in a very tough division and I still see A, Smith Succeeding. Just my opinion