How Will the Rookie RB Affect Their Team?

[TREFF]

Dak had a great season because of his efficiency, if he throws more and is needed more, the probability says he will be less efficient... and therefore he will probably have a down year compared to last...

But the point is still that sophomore slump is a real thing... But it really is just common sense, that a player who was so great will likely get worse... Really, when do you have faith that a player is what there numbers show?? most of us don't trust it until they showed it for multiple years...

I mean, if you were to place money on who will have a better or worse season than last, I know I would say that Hill, Dak and Elliot will all have worse seasons than last...

The sad thing is, that whenever someone is NOT AS GOOD, then they will be seen to be slumping... and then the year after people will bring up a trend that a player is getting worse every year...

Does anyone think Gurley will get back to his rookie numbers?? most experts have him in the Late second to third round... and most think he will be closer to his 2016 numbers than his 2015 numbers...

I wouldn't argue that some regression on certain guys isn't to be expected, but when someone says sophomore slump. . the negative conotation is that he'll be terrible. . Like Gurley was. And mire often than not, there are concrete reasons as to why. Crap QB play, he was good when the QB play was adequate his rookie year. . Just as an example. In recent history, the only guy i can think of off the top of my head that was a true sophomore slump, Trich .. no good reason as to why he stunk so badly other than he just simoky overachieved.

As to what i think about Gurley this year, i don't exoect a return to rookie numbers, the QB is still crap, the line still stinks.. but i do expect a slightly better result, just because they've now had a fill calender year to understand what they can and can't do given the limitations, so perhaps he'll be mire efficient with the opportunities he does get rather than get frustrated and miss those opportunities, like he often did last year

 

[TREFF]

Actually, I agree with Brees.
Not sure if it can be blamed on "video" or not?
But I agree that when players put up career or history-making stats, the chances of repeating those kind of stats are slim.
Sounds like Milk is in the same ballpark.
Or at least the same solar system.

Yeah, but you're talking a simple return to the norm, neutral regression, which is still going to be good, he's saying the guy will be bad

 

[Clayton]

Does anyone think Gurley will get back to his rookie numbers?? most experts have him in the Late second to third round... and most think he will be closer to his 2016 numbers than his 2015 numbers...

Last year's drop for Gurley is something I would've never expected because his vision coming out of college and in his first year was 10/10 as good as it gets. Apparently Gurley was improvising away from play calls.

My guess is that Gurley should be closer to his 2015 numbers with a new coaching staff and a better oline. Goff needs to make the step up from worst in the league to something serviceable for me to trust anything on that offense, though.

 

[TREFF]

Dak had a great season because of his efficiency, if he throws more and is needed more, the probability says he will be less efficient... and therefore he will probably have a down year compared to last...

But the point is still that sophomore slump is a real thing... But it really is just common sense, that a player who was so great will likely get worse... Really, when do you have faith that a player is what there numbers show?? most of us don't trust it until they showed it for multiple years...

I mean, if you were to place money on who will have a better or worse season than last, I know I would say that Hill, Dak and Elliot will all have worse seasons than last...

The sad thing is, that whenever someone is NOT AS GOOD, then they will be seen to be slumping... and then the year after people will bring up a trend that a player is getting worse every year...

Does anyone think Gurley will get back to his rookie numbers?? most experts have him in the Late second to third round... and most think he will be closer to his 2016 numbers than his 2015 numbers...

Besides, your arguing the exact same point i made. . you say player X is going to be bad in year 2? I say fine, give me reasons why you think so, niff just some vague sophomore slump.. and you are. . Which is exactly what i stated

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I wouldn't argue that some regression on certain guys isn't to be expected, but when someone says sophomore slump. . the negative conotation is that he'll be terrible. . Like Gurley was. And mire often than not, there are concrete reasons as to why. Crap QB play, he was good when the QB play was adequate his rookie year. . Just as an example. In recent history, the only guy i can think of off the top of my head that was a true sophomore slump, Trich .. no good reason as to why he stunk so badly other than he just simoky overachieved.

As to what i think about Gurley this year, i don't exoect a return to rookie numbers, the QB is still crap, the line still stinks.. but i do expect a slightly better result, just because they've now had a fill calender year to understand what they can and can't do given the limitations, so perhaps he'll be mire efficient with the opportunities he does get rather than get frustrated and miss those opportunities, like he often did last year

I was not defending Brees' definition of the sophomore slump... Just showing you that the sophomore slump is not a myth... It is the most likely outcome...

But I agree that people think sophomore slump means fall off the map... it does not mean that, it just means the player will regress... to what point?? impossible to predict...

 

[Clayton]

Yes, but did they use them more because their running game was inefficient or because they were doing so well??

Chiefs had quite a few issues on offense last year that were somewhat masked by how many turnovers and big plays they had.

I know footballoutsiders covered the Chiefs offense a few times and they think its the Chiefs oline not creating a good push after Ehinger went down. My personal opinion is that the Chiefs TE depth sucked at blocking, too.

Ware was alright last year. West sucked hard. By my estimation, Hunt will come in and replace West day 1 for sure. The thing about Hunt thats going to be interesting is what weight the Chiefs play him at. If he ends up playing at the weight from his Senior Bowl, I could see Hunt eventually passing up Ware by the end of the season. Hunt's elite ability is balance while Ware's elite(?) ability is pass catching. That smells like a rotation to me.

 

[TREFF]

I was not defending Brees' definition of the sophomore slump... Just showing you that the sophomore slump is not a myth... It is the most likely outcome...

But I agree that people think sophomore slump means fall off the map... it does not mean that, it just means the player will regress... to what point?? impossible to predict...

Than we're just debating symantics, and what's the point?

But let's not lose sight of what started this. ."Mark my words, Tyreek Hill's numbers will go down".

Welk, ok, why? And what numbers? Dude only had 600 yards receiving and less than 10 per catch. .. what's so eye popping, career year, historical about those numbers? Completely sustainable, especially for a guy going from a gadgety type usage to the #1 WR. Christ if those numbers go down, he's not even worth a spot on an NFL roster.

 

[averagejoe]

Dude only had 600 yards receiving and less than 10 per catch. .. what's so eye popping, career year, historical about those numbers?

This is true.
600 yards (593) is minimal.

Hill didn't really come on until week 7 where he averaged over 11 fantasy points a game thru week 16.
To put that in perspective, only 8 other WR did better than Hill in that span.
And only 10 WR had as many or more TD than Hill (9).
To me, those are the numbers that stand out.
But I agree, Treff, technically not "career" numbers.

The potential is there if your an optimist.
Still, with Maclin gone and probably looking at double coverage, on a team that doesn't pass much to begin with, it'll be tough to match last year's numbers (i.e. those 9 weeks mentioned above) consistently. Is this enough to make him fall off the map?

If he's making it to most rosters (so basically in the top 60), then the data suggests NO, he doesn't.
His ECR and ADP are both 25. Pretty high - and risky if you ask me - for a guy who merely had a good 9 weeks.

 

[TREFF]

This is true.
600 yards (593) is minimal.

Hill didn't really come on until week 7 where he averaged over 11 fantasy points a game thru week 16.
To put that in perspective, only 8 other WR did better than Hill in that span.
And only 10 WR had as many or more TD than Hill (9).
To me, those are the numbers that stand out.
But I agree, Treff, technically not "career" numbers.

The potential is there if your an optimist.
Still, with Maclin gone and probably looking at double coverage, on a team that doesn't pass much to begin with, it'll be tough to match last year's numbers (i.e. those 9 weeks mentioned above) consistently. Is this enough to make him fall off the map?

If he's making it to most rosters (so basically in the top 60), then the data suggests NO, he doesn't.
His ECR and ADP are both 25. Pretty high - and risky if you ask me - for a guy who merely had a good 9 weeks.

I'd agree with all that Joe, hell, I'd even say you're being too nice, he didn't even have 9 good weeks, more like 5. And the guy's ADP IS outrageous, built on a bunch of fools expecting weekly craziness like consistent repeats of 5 fluke plays.
None of that, however, is agreeing Brees, as that isn't the context he used, nor possibly might have intended.
If Hill gets 750 and 8,(perfectly reasonable projection btw) only averaging 8-9 fp per week, he still isn't "slumping", his numbers didn't go down, they actually went up, he just didn't lived up to unrealistic expectations

 

[Stomp]

How many sophomore slumps do we witness? Todd Gurley is the most recent example. Mark my words, Ty Hill is gonna regress.

Gurleys struggles can mostly be blamed on opposing defenses not fearing Goff and especially bad run blocking a ridiculous 70% of his yards last season came after contact and at one point he was actually averaging more yards after contact than yards per carry. Tyreek may not be as efficient at scoring TDs as last year, but the Chiefs are lacking receivers i expect his volume (snaps on the field and targets) to increase by at least 50%. As far as sophomore slumps go in general there are lots of reasons they happen not just film exposing a weakness.

 

[SteelersPride]

gurleys problems too were not trusting his reads, and making cuts to soon. He wasnt seeing the play develop, and thats coming right out of the rams coaching staffs mouth