How Will the Rookie RB Affect Their Team?

[SteelersPride]

@Schmoopy1000 sorry i was agreeing with u and asking harold to show where he got his info . because i've seen the same as you

 

[Schmoopy1000]

@Schmoopy1000 sorry i was agreeing with u and asking harold to show where he got his info . because i've seen the same as you

oops misread your quote LOL

 

[tlance]

I don't think I have ever seen a team spend this much draft capital on RBs in such a short time. What is that now for the Bengals? 3 RBs selected in the top 3 rounds over a 5 year span? That is rough considering most teams view the RB position As a luxury.

 

[TREFF]

I don't think I have ever seen a team spend this much draft capital on RBs in such a short time. What is that now for the Bengals? 3 RBs selected in the top 3 rounds over a 5 year span? That is rough considering most teams view the RB position As a luxury.

Agreed, i also thought they were a little crazy. Not just at RB, but with WR's as well. For team that was actually pretty decent offensively, and has been for quite some time, to draft a WR and a RB 1st and 2nd, seemed like an unnecessary splurge to me when they could've addressed issues in the secondary or the line (either side), or the LB corps.

 

[TREFF]

As for Hill... I'll be shocked if they trade or release Hill at anytime before the 2018 preseason. When you've got them all signed and under the cap, why not keep them all? At that position, the more depth the better.
So Mixon will not only have to win the job. . Which given his competition, seems pretty likely, but he'll have to keep winning it, every Sunday.. Which barring injury, i would also expect him to do easily

 

[HaroldSeattle]

i haven't seen it read that anywhere? care to share where u heard that? what i've heard lines more up with what @Schmoopy1000 said

Giovani Bernard - Cincinnati Bengals - 2017 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

Must admit the talk has shifted to speculating Mixon will be the lead back. I still think Hill starts the season as the starter, if nothing else for PR reasons.

 

[SteelersPride]

Giovani Bernard - Cincinnati Bengals - 2017 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

Must admit the talk has shifted to speculating Mixon will be the lead back. I still think Hill starts the season as the starter, if nothing else for PR reasons.

Bengals Fantasy Preview - Rotoworld.com

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I own Mixon in D2 so I'm all for him becoming the starting RB ASAP. However with Gio looking like he's not going to be ready for the first few games, just makes sense to me to have Mixon take that role. It's not like Hill can fill the pass catching role.

 

[SteelersPride]

hill can't do much besides goal li

I own Mixon in D2 so I'm all for him becoming the starting RB ASAP. However with Gio looking like he's not going to be ready for the first few games, just makes sense to me to have Mixon take that role. It's not like Hill can fill the pass catching role.

ne better than gio

 

[Brees#1]

Where do you get this crap

Listen I'm a hockey promoting football ignoramus from the frozen tundra way north of you in Canada

Even I know the NFL teams all study film

The players are also watching the same film as it is broken down to them on a daily basis between Monday and Friday

it is part of a typical NFL player and coach's work week

What do you think the various coaches up in the box are doing on game day watching beer commercials during breaks in the play

Film study is a crucial step in every team's weekly game prep and of course in game as well

Have you ever heard of halftime adjustments obviously film is an useful and needed tool in those adjustments

Explain how so many first year players look good all season just about one year and the next year come crashing down?

 

[SteelersPride]

Explain how so many first year players look good all season just about one year and the next year come crashing down?

what?

 

[Brees#1]

How many sophomore slumps do we witness? Todd Gurley is the most recent example. Mark my words, Ty Hill is gonna regress.

 

[TREFF]

How many sophomore slumps do we witness? Todd Gurley is the most recent example. Mark my words, Ty Hill is gonna regress.

I'm not about to do the research and math work, but i feel it's very safe to say there's many more cases of sophomore PROGRESSION than there are sophomore slumps. So simply saying he'll regress because of some potential mysterious "sophomore slump", without any secondary indications as to why he might be one of those few who do, is pretty vague.
How about some indicators as you why he might? Did he start out fast and finish weak? .nope, actually finished stronger than he started, much stronger, showing signs not only of personal progression within the system, but also progression within the offense, becoming a more often used instrument as the season went on.
Did the chiefs change systems, coordinators, add any potential competition? Nope, in fact they jettisoned their #1 WR leaving that spot for Hill, so opportunity will increase, substantially. ( you brought up Todd Gurley..great example of how changing QB's, line members ect.. can easily be blamed for his slump. . Not just the football gods frowning down upon him because he's a sophomore)
So theres really one one potential reason, other than irrational superstition, to expect a regression, and that's if he simply isn't good enough to be a #1 and was only successful because Maclin was on the field. He can't be the guy that beats the defense's top corner, can't beat double teams consistently.

So are you going with he's just not that good, or old silly superstitions?

 

[SteelersPride]

ON hill, for me its because its because most of his success was a non-traditional role, and gadget plays. Now that hes not returning kicks and asked to play a true #1 im skeptical. I could be wrong, but for where hes going in drafts...

 

[ehb5]

I own Mixon in D2 so I'm all for him becoming the starting RB ASAP. However with Gio looking like he's not going to be ready for the first few games, just makes sense to me to have Mixon take that role. It's not like Hill can fill the pass catching role.

I think Mixons just going to fill all the roles.

 

[TREFF]

I think Mixons just going to fill all the roles.

Yep, Hill's time is very limited, and Gio's ain't far behind

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I'm not about to do the research and math work, but i feel it's very safe to say there's many more cases of sophomore PROGRESSION than there are sophomore slumps. So simply saying he'll regress because of some potential mysterious "sophomore slump", without any secondary indications as to why he might be one of those few who do, is pretty vague.
How about some indicators as you why he might? Did he start out fast and finish weak? .nope, actually finished stronger than he started, much stronger, showing signs not only of personal progression within the system, but also progression within the offense, becoming a more often used instrument as the season went on.
Did the chiefs change systems, coordinators, add any potential competition? Nope, in fact they jettisoned their #1 WR leaving that spot for Hill, so opportunity will increase, substantially. ( you brought up Todd Gurley..great example of how changing QB's, line members ect.. can easily be blamed for his slump. . Not just the football gods frowning down upon him because he's a sophomore)
So theres really one one potential reason, other than irrational superstition, to expect a regression, and that's if he simply isn't good enough to be a #1 and was only successful because Maclin was on the field. He can't be the guy that beats the defense's top corner, can't beat double teams consistently.

So are you going with he's just not that good, or old silly superstitions?

I don't think it is a superstition at all...

Here are 2 facts

1.Most rookies don't succeed- therefore Many will improve

2. but the rookies that had great seasons- which is very few. Now have the hype, they now have teams coming in focused on them, AND there may have been some underlying reasons for these players success...



Ty Hill was a freak, and had more Long Big Play TDs than anyone last season... if you just tackle him better(not saying it is easy) he will obviously get worse numbers... It is near IMPOSSIBLE for him to reach his efficiency rates... and depending on how much he gets worse- he will have a worse season than last, and will be seen to be a sophomore slump... just because he had a worse season...

you can say similar things about the Cowboys 2 rookies... last season went absolutely perfect for them... it is near impossible that the Cowboys will be able to win without NEEDING to throw the ball occasionally... so it is almost a guarantee that both will get worse...

 

[TREFF]

I don't think it is a superstition at all...

Here are 2 facts

1.Most rookies don't succeed- therefore Many will improve

2. but the rookies that had great seasons- which is very few. Now have the hype, they now have teams coming in focused on them, AND there may have been some underlying reasons for these players success...



Ty Hill was a freak, and had more Long Big Play TDs than anyone last season... if you just tackle him better(not saying it is easy) he will obviously get worse numbers... It is near IMPOSSIBLE for him to reach his efficiency rates... and depending on how much he gets worse- he will have a worse season than last, and will be seen to be a sophomore slump... just because he had a worse season...

you can say similar things about the Cowboys 2 rookies... last season went absolutely perfect for them... it is near impossible that the Cowboys will be able to win without NEEDING to throw the ball occasionally... so it is almost a guarantee that both will get worse...

Actually if they need to throw the ball mire often, Prescott's numbers are every bit as likely to increase as they might be to decrease, and Zeke getting more work in passsing downs doesn't exactly hurt his value.
Sophomore slump might be a real thing, but about as "real" as the Madden Curse..a real coincidental thing

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Actually if they need to throw the ball mire often, Prescott's numbers are every bit as likely to increase as they might be to decrease, and Zeke getting more work in passsing downs doesn't exactly hurt his value.
Sophomore slump might be a real thing, but about as "real" as the Madden Curse..a real coincidental thing

Dak had a great season because of his efficiency, if he throws more and is needed more, the probability says he will be less efficient... and therefore he will probably have a down year compared to last...

But the point is still that sophomore slump is a real thing... But it really is just common sense, that a player who was so great will likely get worse... Really, when do you have faith that a player is what there numbers show?? most of us don't trust it until they showed it for multiple years...

I mean, if you were to place money on who will have a better or worse season than last, I know I would say that Hill, Dak and Elliot will all have worse seasons than last...

The sad thing is, that whenever someone is NOT AS GOOD, then they will be seen to be slumping... and then the year after people will bring up a trend that a player is getting worse every year...

Does anyone think Gurley will get back to his rookie numbers?? most experts have him in the Late second to third round... and most think he will be closer to his 2016 numbers than his 2015 numbers...

 

[averagejoe]

How many sophomore slumps do we witness? Todd Gurley is the most recent example. Mark my words, Ty Hill is gonna regress.

Actually, I agree with Brees.
Not sure if it can be blamed on "video" or not?
But I agree that when players put up career or history-making stats, the chances of repeating those kind of stats are slim.
Sounds like Milk is in the same ballpark.
Or at least the same solar system.