How much longer does Felix have left?

[seahawksfan234]

Felix is 30. I think RJ was just a few years older when we gave up on him and traded him away, and he re-emerged as of the best pitchers in the game for another handful of years. Maybe he doesn't throw mid-90s anymore, but like others of have said, it's the movement and combination with other good pitches that make him great anyway.

I think Felix and Randy Johnson are apples and oranges. It's not very frequent that a pitcher has the best years of their career between the ages of 35 and 38.

 

[seahawksfan234]

He's looked a little shaky, but I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet.

I'm up for potentially trading anyone. But even if we wanted to trade him, he has 100% control over it, and if he is in decline, I don't know that we'd get a whole lot back from another team unless we ate a bunch of his salary anyway.

Not sure how much I agree with this. Although I see warning signs, that doesn't mean teams would agree with my assessment. His ERA is still very solid and I expect him to continue being a very good pitcher, just not a $24m pitcher.

 

[cezero]

you're supporting what i said, actually.

anyhoo, i suspect he's trying to protect that UCL because of the way his contract is written.

nothing else to say, really.

 

[seahawksfan234]

you're supporting what i said, actually.

anyhoo, i suspect he's trying to protect that UCL because of the way his contract is written.

nothing else to say, really.

What I was trying to say is that I do think we could get a good amount for him.

 

[dude82]

What I was trying to say is that I do think we could get a good amount for him.

I'm still wondering why we're even talking about this. I can't remember the last time we got through a whole season without someone suggesting that the M's trade Felix and with the Mariners in first place in early May and Felix's ERA sitting at 2.21 after 6 starts, I thought this might finally be the year that we wouldn't hear that stuff. I was wrong. Of course we could get a good haul for him in a trade, but why trade him now when we didn't trade him during our last two rebuilds or when the sports media around the country practically begged the M's to trade him for his sake?

He's re-signed here repeatedly when he had the chance to sign either with a better team or with a team that would have paid him more money or both. I'm sure he was even advised against re-signing with the M's after his first contract ended as the M's weren't good and he definitely could have gotten more money elsewhere at the time. He's never even gotten to free agency because he's always chosen to re-up with the team well ahead of time. He chooses to stay when almost anyone else would have left and we're gonna reward that loyalty by trading him when the team is off to its best start in years all because his velocity has dipped a little and he's had some clunkers in the recent past? Even great pitchers have clunkers and as I said before, due to how great he's had to be in practically every start just to give the team a chance to win, when he does have a clunker, it seems to bring about more scrutiny than it would for just about any other pitcher in the league. Haven't we driven enough superstars out of town prematurely as it is? Besides... even if the Mariners wanted to trade him, he'd have to agree to it. I don't see that happening unless management does something to piss him off.

 

[JMR]

I think Felix and Randy Johnson are apples and oranges. It's not very frequent that a pitcher has the best years of their career between the ages of 35 and 38.

Well, I wasn't really trying to suggest that I think Felix's best years are ahead of him. Just not totally unusual for mid-30s pitchers to still be really good and maintain their velocity.

 

[NWinAZ]

Just not totally unusual for mid-30s pitchers to still be really good and maintain their velocity.

More unusual in the roid testing era though.

Sabathia not the same
Verlander not the same
Shields not the same
Felix not the same

Active Leaders &amp Records for Innings Pitched | Baseball-Reference.com

Not saying he is done, but he will have to work harder for lesser results. Wouldn't trade him even if we could at this point.

 

[NWinAZ]

I think Felix and Randy Johnson are apples and oranges. It's not very frequent that a pitcher has the best years of their career between the ages of 35 and 38.

Agreed.

Johnson was 34 when we traded him with 1994 career innings to that point.

Felix is 30 with 2299 innings. 4 years younger, but 305 more innings pitched. More innings in less time not the best thing for an aging pitcher unless they can reinvent themselves somewhat.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Well, I wasn't really trying to suggest that I think Felix's best years are ahead of him. Just not totally unusual for mid-30s pitchers to still be really good and maintain their velocity.

The key factor might not be age, but rather workload. Johnson for instance didn't throw all that many innings in his 20s, considering he wasn't drafted until age 21 and didn't become an everyday big leaguer until age 25. From age 18-30, Johnson pitched a total of about 1900 innings (between college/minors/majors). Felix at age 30 has by comparison has thrown 700 more innings (3-4 seasons worth more of innings).

 

[blstoker]

The key factor might not be age, but rather workload. Johnson for instance didn't throw all that many innings in his 20s, considering he wasn't drafted until age 21 and didn't become an everyday big leaguer until age 25. From age 18-30, Johnson pitched a total of about 1900 innings (between college/minors/majors). Felix at age 30 has by comparison has thrown 700 more innings (3-4 seasons worth more of innings).

There is definitely a workload issue. Johnson (I don't have 2 of his college years, so I won't use it) worked just 1448.2 innings a a professional when he turned 30. Felix on the other hand, 2574.2. That's 1100 innings!

I'm not so concerned about his velocity. His average fastball has been dropping the last few years, and hasn't been higher than the 92's the last 4. He's been moving away from a dependence on the fastball for a while - and throws the traditional 4 seamer less than 1/4 of his pitches.

What does have me concerned is his increased walks. He's on pace for his worst year for BB/9 and K/BB rates. He needs to get his control under control.

 

[NWinAZ]

What does have me concerned is his increased walks. He's on pace for his worst year for BB/9 and K/BB rates. He needs to get his control under control.

I am no pitching expert, but I would think the lower velocity you pitch at the more you have to aim your pitches instead of just throwing them and aiming is never as accurate for a pitcher as throwing. I think will take time to correct with some bumps in the road along the way...unless you get the Maddox treatment which he doesn't.

 

[JMR]

The key factor might not be age, but rather workload. Johnson for instance didn't throw all that many innings in his 20s, considering he wasn't drafted until age 21 and didn't become an everyday big leaguer until age 25. From age 18-30, Johnson pitched a total of about 1900 innings (between college/minors/majors). Felix at age 30 has by comparison has thrown 700 more innings (3-4 seasons worth more of innings).

Yeah, he certainly does have high mileage. He did hit 92 last night a few times and was 90-91 consistently. While that is not overpowering, it was 2 or 3 mph more than he had last time out, and he was effective with it outside a couple solo bombs that ended up being meaningless. We'll probably never see him above 95 again, but you can be good in the big leagues for a long time with the stuff he has right now.

 

[unlvmariners]

Yeah, he certainly does have high mileage. He did hit 92 last night a few times and was 90-91 consistently. While that is not overpowering, it was 2 or 3 mph more than he had last time out, and he was effective with it outside a couple solo bombs that ended up being meaningless. We'll probably never see him above 95 again, but you can be good in the big leagues for a long time with the stuff he has right now.

Im good with him in that low 90's range but when he is averaging below 90 I think he will run into some issues, as we have seen from time to time.

 

[AceKeptic]

It's not about how much time he has left. It's more about what kind of ultimatum you send to your batters whenever he's up to pitch. Seriously, I don't know what kind of vibes go off between them and Felix on those days, but if they're going to surrender like they did today (Two hits? C'MON MAN!), then the problem is not our ace.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Bump.

6 hits 4 runs 1 K through 4 IP.

 

[wazzu31]

Randy and Felix are different IMO not just because of innings but because of the surgery Randy had. Randy also was more intimidating and didn't need to become a better all around pitcher. Felix became an ace in the wrong generation in a way since upper 90's are a dime a dozen. When Randy pitched there were just a handful. Watch the Netflix documentary fastball, it kind of explains in a way IMO.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Today's line (assuming he's pulled after this inning):

6.0 IP 9 H 4 ER 1 BB 3 K

4 of those 9 hits were extra base hits. With 2 being HRs. One by a pitcher.

 

[NWinAZ]

Today's line (assuming he's pulled after this inning):

6.0 IP 9 H 4 ER 1 BB 3 K

4 of those 9 hits were extra base hits. With 2 being HRs. One by a pitcher.

From what I saw, his fastball was 91...

 

[seahawksfan234]

I think this organization needs to consider moving him and his contract before it's too late.

 

[NWinAZ]

I think this organization needs to consider moving him and his contract before it's too late.

He won't approve a deal from what everyone says.