How much longer does Felix have left?

[unlvmariners]

6 walks in 5 innings today.

Way too many walks from Felix lately. He was lucky he didn't give up more runs today.

 

[dude82]

Felix is fine and will be fine, even if the velocity stays where it is now. A while back, he sacrificed velocity for movement, which seemed to work out pretty well for him; and as this is his 12th season, it wouldn't be a surprise if his velocity took more of a natural dip than an intentional one this time. That being said, pitchers have been known to start seasons not throwing quite as hard as usual before getting that velocity back as the season goes on. Maybe that happens with Felix and maybe it doesn't, but two weeks into the season is a bit early to start worrying about his drop in velocity being permanent.

I feel it's also worth noting that Felix might face the most pressure and the most scrutiny of any ace in recent memory because of the incredibly low amount of run support he's gotten throughout his career. All aces have clunkers from time-to-time and all pitchers face a dip in velocity at one point or another, but because he's had to be so good practically every time out just to keep the team in the game late, those things seem to stand out more when it happens with Felix than when it happens to other aces. I mean... we're talking about how much a guy, who, through three starts, has an ERA of 1.00 and 20 strikeouts has left in the tank and whether it would be a good idea to trade him now before he has a chance to crap out on us.

He's fine. He's got the horrible luck of having an offense that seems to almost disappear when he's on the mound, but otherwise, he's fine.

 

[Tech_God]

Felix is fine and will be fine, even if the velocity stays where it is now. A while back, he sacrificed velocity for movement, which seemed to work out pretty well for him; and as this is his 12th season, it wouldn't be a surprise if his velocity took more of a natural dip than an intentional one this time. That being said, pitchers have been known to start seasons not throwing quite as hard as usual before getting that velocity back as the season goes on. Maybe that happens with Felix and maybe it doesn't, but two weeks into the season is a bit early to start worrying about his drop in velocity being permanent.

I feel it's also worth noting that Felix might face the most pressure and the most scrutiny of any ace in recent memory because of the incredibly low amount of run support he's gotten throughout his career. All aces have clunkers from time-to-time and all pitchers face a dip in velocity at one point or another, but because he's had to be so good practically every time out just to keep the team in the game late, those things seem to stand out more when it happens with Felix than when it happens to other aces. I mean... we're talking about how much a guy, who, through three starts, has an ERA of 1.00 and 20 strikeouts has left in the tank and whether it would be a good idea to trade him now before he has a chance to crap out on us.

He's fine. He's got the horrible luck of having an offense that seems to almost disappear when he's on the mound, but otherwise, he's fine.

 

[JMR]

Felix is 30. I think RJ was just a few years older when we gave up on him and traded him away, and he re-emerged as of the best pitchers in the game for another handful of years. Maybe he doesn't throw mid-90s anymore, but like others of have said, it's the movement and combination with other good pitches that make him great anyway.

 

[cezero]

his FB/Change velocity differential has always been small, right?

 

[wazzu31]

Isn't it typical with pitchers who develop more pitches to lose velocity? How many pitchers have you ever seen that have 5 plus pitches who throw 97? He came up throwing hard with a fastball, an ok curve and ok change up IMO.

 

[JMR]

Isn't it typical with pitchers who develop more pitches to lose velocity? How many pitchers have you ever seen that have 5 plus pitches who throw 97? He came up throwing hard with a fastball, an ok curve and ok change up IMO.

Yeah, could be.

So you wonder....do they develop more pitches because they are losing velocity, or does developing more pitches cause the velocity loss?

 

[EVille3]

Yeah, could be.

So you wonder....do they develop more pitches because they are losing velocity, or does developing more pitches cause the velocity loss?

I think the developing of more pitches allows them to keep hitters off balance more and conserve their arms. No one can be a power pitcher and have lengthy career, save for a couple anomalies. So I'm thinking if pitchers want to have a prolonged career and still be effective, the additional pitches will conserve their arms.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Felix is 30. I think RJ was just a few years older when we gave up on him and traded him away, and he re-emerged as of the best pitchers in the game for another handful of years. Maybe he doesn't throw mid-90s anymore, but like others of have said, it's the movement and combination with other good pitches that make him great anyway.

RJ's a unique case, not only because he was a freak of nature but also because he got a pretty late start playing pro ball (didn't start in the minors till age 21 and didn't have his first full season in the majors until age 25), so there was a lot less mileage on his body in his 30s. RJ didn't reach 2000 innings in the majors untl he was 35, whereas Felix reached that mark at age 28.

With Felix, he's thrown 190+ innings every year since he was 20, and even at ages 18-19 he averaged 160 innings in the minors. The only ones I can think of from this 'generation' with a comparable career workload is Sabathia (both had about 2300 innings around age 30), whose career started downhill around age 32. Obviously CC's just one case and his decline might be for a number of reasons, but it goes to show how rare it is nowadays to throw the type of innings these two have thrown.

 

[wazzu31]

Yeah, could be.

So you wonder....do they develop more pitches because they are losing velocity, or does developing more pitches cause the velocity loss?

I think in Felix's case is that he had ungodly ability and realized that if all he had a plus fastball and 2 decent pitches he wouldn't live up to all the hype. I always heard that Felix wanted to be a pitcher not a thrower.

Plus, it is way harder to hit a pitcher who only has like 7 or 8 mph difference between fastball, sinker, curve and changeup. I mean he came up as a high 90'school flamethrower and his fastball has been his 4th best pitch for at least 3 years or so.

 

[dude82]

I don't think that there's any correlation between Felix working on making his other pitches better and his fastball velocity declining. I think he would have kept working on his off-speed pitches even if he had decided to keep throwing fastballs in the mid-to-upper 90's. When he was throwing in the mid-to-upper 90's, his fastball was straighter and I think once he realized that he could get more movement by taking a few miles per hour off of it, he did something that a lot of power pitchers are reluctant to do even late in their careers, and that's sacrifice velocity for movement and deception.

A lot of pitchers who have the kind of fastball that Felix had when he first came up will stubbornly throw it as hard as they can for as long as they can, and not always with the best results. Some guys clue in that velocity isn't everything after an injury takes that velocity away and other pitchers reinvent themselves later in their careers when they realize that hitters love hitting fastballs that don't move and aren't as fast as they used to be. Felix is a rarity in that it didn't take a major injury or a reluctant realization brought on by getting his naturally diminished fastball knocked around later in his career for him to realize that he could be a better pitcher if he backed off on his fastball a bit. Making the decision to take something off of his fastball when he did and realizing that getting movement on his fastball was going to be more effective for him going forward than letting it happen naturally and maybe not getting the same type of movement on it that he got by deliberately taking something off of it.

 

[NWinAZ]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 2h2 hours ago


Felix Hernandez numbers: Average fastball velocity at 89.5 mph, lowest of his career by far. Missed swing %: 8.4, lowest of career, by far.

 

[JMR]

Not letting yesterday's lackluster showing have too much influence. He was still getting it done start after start this year and not allowing many runs across the plate. Velocity is down for sure, which is odd at 30, but he's still a really good pitcher. You don't need a 95 mph fastball to be effective when you have a curve and a change like he does.

 

[cezero]

He's looked a little shaky, but I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet.

I'm up for potentially trading anyone. But even if we wanted to trade him, he has 100% control over it, and if he is in decline, I don't know that we'd get a whole lot back from another team unless we ate a bunch of his salary anyway.

 

[cezero]

I don't think that there's any correlation between Felix working on making his other pitches better and his fastball velocity declining. I think he would have kept working on his off-speed pitches even if he had decided to keep throwing fastballs in the mid-to-upper 90's. When he was throwing in the mid-to-upper 90's, his fastball was straighter and I think once he realized that he could get more movement by taking a few miles per hour off of it, he did something that a lot of power pitchers are reluctant to do even late in their careers, and that's sacrifice velocity for movement and deception.

A lot of pitchers who have the kind of fastball that Felix had when he first came up will stubbornly throw it as hard as they can for as long as they can, and not always with the best results. Some guys clue in that velocity isn't everything after an injury takes that velocity away and other pitchers reinvent themselves later in their careers when they realize that hitters love hitting fastballs that don't move and aren't as fast as they used to be. Felix is a rarity in that it didn't take a major injury or a reluctant realization brought on by getting his naturally diminished fastball knocked around later in his career for him to realize that he could be a better pitcher if he backed off on his fastball a bit. Making the decision to take something off of his fastball when he did and realizing that getting movement on his fastball was going to be more effective for him going forward than letting it happen naturally and maybe not getting the same type of movement on it that he got by deliberately taking something off of it.

I was just looking at his contract. We have a $1 million club option in 2020 if he injures his elbow and is on the DL for 130 consecutive days. That could be a big reason why he'd choose not to throw so hard.

 

[dude82]

One thing that I forgot about in my previous post is that they had him on a separate schedule from everybody else in Spring Training. They were lightening his workload almost like they would for a guy coming off of surgery. Maybe his velocity is what it is and what it's going to be from now on or maybe the effects of how they handled him in Spring Training are having an effect. Either way, as long as he pitches the way he did in April and there isn't an injury that we're unaware of that he's been pitching through, I'm not going to worry about his velocity.

 

[PolarVortex]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 2h2 hours ago


Felix Hernandez numbers: Average fastball velocity at 89.5 mph, lowest of his career by far. Missed swing %: 8.4, lowest of career, by far.

He's kind of fallen in love with his curveball. I think if he went back to his changeup being his primary outpitch, his swing and miss percentage would go up.

Also, he doesn't seem to be in as good of shape this year as in recent years. The last two seasons he was much thinner than he is this year.

And he is still managing to be an effective pitcher. 4 of his 6 starts have been quality starts with two of those being ultra quality starts.

 

[PolarVortex]

He's kind of fallen in love with his curveball. I think if he went back to his changeup being his primary outpitch, his swing and miss percentage would go up.

Also, he doesn't seem to be in as good of shape this year as in recent years. The last two seasons he was much thinner than he is this year.

And he is still managing to be an effective pitcher. 4 of his 6 starts have been quality starts with two of those being ultra quality starts.

 

[NWinAZ]

One thing that I forgot about in my previous post is that they had him on a separate schedule from everybody else in Spring Training.

That is his personal spring schedule and new management let him stay with it. He has been doing it for several years. He believes it keeps him fresher and it might be.

 

[NWinAZ]

Also, he doesn't seem to be in as good of shape this year as in recent years. The last two seasons he was much thinner than he is this year.

True, and as Nolan Ryan would point out, velocity comes from the legs. Not sure he is a big leg guy.