Homer to the DL

[Hit-n-Run]

Initial reports are sprain to the ligament in his right elbow.

 

[JohnU]

Iglesias?
Or do we just move Cingrani in there and call up some other stiff?

 

[ckhokie]

...so he's probably done for the year, right?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Sprain ligament can mean a variety of things, none are good. Worse case scenario is Tommy John.

If it's season ending, the Reds might expand their list of potential replacements. Iglesias and Lorenzen seem to be the two the Reds favored in ST, but they also liked what they saw from Jon Moscot who has pitched well at Louisville. Dylan Axelrod has pitched well also, but doesn't apear to be in their future plans. The options are better than in recent years.

 

[JohnU]

Contreras is coming up. Not sure what that means.
I'd say Homer's year is over.

On another front, how much longer does it take before the facts are clear on Badenhop?
The guy can't throw strikes that aren't ripped into the outfield.
Another stellar effort tonight.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Contreras has been in the bullpen, so he probably only here until Homer's spot in the rotation needs filled. Every time they've made that sort of move it seems the guy/s never see action.

I'm starting to think Gregg and Badenhop are having a personal competition to see who can have the highest ERA. Doesn't matter who wins, the fans are the real losers in this fiasco.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Does Dr. Kremcheck ever get a surgery right the first time ? Seems like they all require a do-over. I wouldn't let him touch my dog.

 

[JohnU]

Looking at the Bats pitching numbers, two components speak to the matter:

Dylan Axelgrease is probably going to fill Bailey's slot.
David Holmburg has been getting shelled!

BATS STATS

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Axelrod may very well be the one they call up. He doesn't fit into their future plans......they have no concerns with options, arbitration, and free agency clocks with him. They've already DFA'd him once and will again if necessary.

Holmberg is closer to being the next Daniel Corcino if anyone would actually pick him up after being waived

 

[JohnU]

I thought Holmberg had a lot of upside, at least from what they all said after the Hanigan deal came down. I was thinking ... hmmmm here's a lefty we can see in a year or so. He actually pitched pretty well a couple of times last September and I thought he had gotten it squared away. I don't follow the Bats so I can't say for sure but he's given up 27 hits in 17 innings ... NOT a good way to make The Show.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds like a lot of clubs put a premium on controlling players as long as they can. The Cubs handling of Kris Bryant is a classic business side of the game taking precedence over putting the best team on the field. We're seeing a similiar thing with the Reds' handling of the pitching roster spots coming out of ST.

Some guys get demoted and play with a chip on their shoulder using it as motivation. Holmberg and Corcino let the situation deflate them. Players that take backwards steps in performance and attitude based on disappointment aren't building blocks regardless of talent level. I'd take Axelrod over both of them...he's at least fighting for his future.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I like the sentiment H&R, but I'm a believer that heart is a secondary consideration after talent. I think the problem with guys like Holmberg, and Gregg, Marquis and even Mike Leake, is that 88 mph is hitting speed. By the time hitters are in AAA, I don't think there are many that can't hit a fastball, and if it's not mid 90's with movement, it's party time. There are successful pitchers without great fastballs, but they have to be at the bottom of the zone, because timing isn't as tough for hitters. They can stay back sitting on the 82 mph breaking ball and still get wood on an 86 mph "fastball". That doesn't work on pitchers with a wider variety of stuff. Margin for pitching error on a 88 mph fastball is a lot smaller than on one at 98. Hitters foul off more and get more hits on slower stuff, running up the pitch counts and lulling defenses to sleep. Hell, baserunners get bigger leads and better jumps on slower pitchers.

I think one of the biggest difference makers in pitchers besides raw fastball velocity, is change of speed and break of secondary pitches that can be thrown for strikes on the edges of the zone- that aren't telegraphed and look like the fastball until it's too late. Cingrani has velocity, but has trouble throwing strikes even with the fastball, and hasn't developed a pitch that hitters can't tell isn't a fastball, especially around the zone. Location issues make pitch counts too high for him to start and go much past 5 innings, even if he's getting outs.

They slowed Cueto's velocity down a few years ago to help simplify his delivery and locate better, and he also developed a changeup 10 mph slower than the fastball, and he has a slider/cutter/breaking ball to mix in between those 2 speeds...and although throws strikes with them all, he doesn't often throw any of them in the middle if the plate. He can get some outs off the plate, on borderline calls because they all look close and hitters are more likely to chase 4 inches off the plate. A 55 foot bouncer or a ball almost out of reach of the catcher doesn't fool anyone and never get any hitters, other than Reds, out. They all can't be Cueto, but one trick ponies don't get the same results.

It kills me to hear people talk about "pitching to contact" like it's a first choice strategy. It's a punt. Anytime contact is made, especially in play, the greater chance of a hit or homer or ROE. There is zero chance of that missing the ball or taking strike 3 on the black. If those guys had better velocity and/or control, they wouldn't need a groundball DP, because there wouldn't be that many runners on in the first place.

The Reds need to do what most other good teams do- let someone else draft the 5'9" kid with the killer junior college breaking ball, and take the 6'5" guy throwing on I-95. Then they need to ship him off to Mario Soto's changeup school. If he graduates, let him get a masters in curveball from Tom Browning. Don't just push him to AAA because future bartenders in the lower minors can't hit a flipping 88 mph fastball or lay off it a foot too high. Don't just look at his ERA, check the BAA against top tier prospects hitting .350 in that league. IMO, there are a lot of unnoticed lazy ass scouts and minor league instructors in 4th place MLB teams organizations.

 

[JohnU]

I see a lot of 88's when I go to Gary, alleging their speed gun is a legit product and no one ever said it wasn't.
Most Double-A quality hitters (and the American Association is essentially that) can turn it around if it doesn't move.

What beats the pitchers in the indy leagues is the lack of an out pitch. Defenses are typically a little slower and with less range, so hitters who keep fouling off dead meat will sooner or later make real contact. If they make contact, their chances of reaching are about 28 percent.

But there are also plenty enough bad hitters at that level to let pitchers survive, even with their reconstructed shoulders.

 

[Redsfan1507]

IF...PED's are really on the decline- I don't think they're gone but do think they're used less-baseball will trend back toward what it always was before...where a guy that hits .285 with 22 HR and 15 SB is an All-Star, instead of a .320/40 Hall of Famer.

IMO, the high current strikeouts are more a product of hitting technique based on previous PED conditions than great pitching. Steals and defense will be more important. A groundball hit behind a baserunner will be appreciated more. Whiffaholics on the wagon hitting .210 with 19 HR will get benched more often, instead of getting 5 year contracts for hitting .240 with 35 HR on Roids. 3,000 hits, 500 HR careers and 50 HR seasons will be rare again. Eventually, they'll start teaching making contact and advancing runners again in the minors. They might even have to teach pitchers how to throw to a base and put down a bunt.

 

[JohnU]

Remembering the years in the late 70s when Dave Collins stole something like 79 bases for the Reds and wasn't even in the top 5 in that category. I think Ron LeFlore and Tim Raines were up in the high 90s for steals. Coleman had 110 or something like that and Henderson stole 130.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'm a big fan of a moving runner. Plays into my preference to always take control and make the opposition do things they don't want to do, at every opportunity. Steals always open more opportunities for the hitter, and limit the defense to reactionary moves beneficial to the offense- covering runners, playing in, throwing more fastballs, an occasional intentional walk, the unintentional balk or grooveball. Defense loves the Dusty offensive philosophy, which was Earl Weaver philosophy less the HOF lineup.

 

[eburg5000]

And just like that Homer Bailey moves to the 60 day DL, which is no surprise .

 

[JohnU]

No choice on the 60-day decision. It frees up a man for the 40-man rsoter.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Manny Parra joins Marshall on the loogys DL to make room on the 25 man. Homer to the 60 DL was a no-brainer regardless of the treatment. He's either going to have PRP injections and rehab or TJ surgery. You never want to see a guy have surgery, but it may be in his best long term future to get it done now rather than later. He didn't respond well to the PRP injections with the torn flexor tendon and may not with the ligament. With two separate injuries to the same elbow the longer recovery would benefit the overall health of his pitching elbow.

 

[JohnU]

I would say that heading into 2016, the Reds are looking at a rotation of Desclafani, Lorenzen, Cingrani and I HAVE NO IDEA who else. That alleges they won't sign Cueto and/or Leake. That appears probable.