Halfway point awards and post season teas predictions

[soxfan1468927]

I'm not trying to get blinded by homer glasses, but they are very close at this time and IMO won-loss record means quite a bit, when the rest of their stats are close. Will we see what happens in the 2nd half of the season.

Scherzer's 5 losses:
6 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks, 2 BBs
6 IP, 5 ER, 7 Ks, 1 BB
5 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks, 3 BBs
7.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks, 1 BB
8 IP, 0 ER, 11 Ks, 1 BB

Plus a no-decision in a game where he went 8 IP, 2 ER, 11 Ks, 2 BBs
He doesn't have a single "cheap win" on his record either

Kershaw has a win going 6 IP, 6 ER, 10 Ks, 1 BB and a no-decision going 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks, 2 BBs. He also has two no-decisions in games he should have won. But 0 tough losses while Scherzer has 3, and 1 cheap win.

 

[The Oldtimer]

Scherzer's 5 losses:
6 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks, 2 BBs
6 IP, 5 ER, 7 Ks, 1 BB
5 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks, 3 BBs
7.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks, 1 BB
8 IP, 0 ER, 11 Ks, 1 BB

Plus a no-decision in a game where he went 8 IP, 2 ER, 11 Ks, 2 BBs
He doesn't have a single "cheap win" on his record either

Kershaw has a win going 6 IP, 6 ER, 10 Ks, 1 BB and a no-decision going 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Ks, 2 BBs. He also has two no-decisions in games he should have won. But 0 tough losses while Scherzer has 3, and 1 cheap win.

Okay?

 

[The Oldtimer]

Mediocre for his standards, yes. Best pitcher in baseball we're talking about. It speaks to how great he is.

Agree.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Okay?

Point being that won-loss record doesn't mean "quite a lot"

 

[The Oldtimer]

Point being that won-loss record doesn't mean "quite a lot"

I'm not real sure what criteria they use to name a Cy Young winner. I'm pretty sure that a won-loss record is on top of that list, if all other stats are close.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I'm not real sure what criteria they use to name a Cy Young winner. I'm pretty sure that a won-loss record is on top of that list, if all other stats are close.

Are we talking about who we predict will win or who we think should win? The criteria is simply the most outstanding pitcher. How I determine the most outstanding pitcher, and how the writers of the BBWAA determine the most outstanding pitcher, may be different. But it's a boring conversation if the question is, "who do you think the writers are going to vote for, and why" and I much prefer the conversation of "who do you think deserves the award, and why."

 

[The Oldtimer]

Are we talking about who we predict will win or who we think should win? The criteria is simply the most outstanding pitcher. How I determine the most outstanding pitcher, and how the writers of the BBWAA determine the most outstanding pitcher, may be different. But it's a boring conversation if the question is, "who do you think the writers are going to vote for, and why" and I much prefer the conversation of "who do you think deserves the award, and why."

Good comment, I agree.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Good comment, I agree.

ESPN Cy Young Predictor has been pretty damn good lately. 11 of the last 12 award winners have been correct. The only one it got wrong was Dallas Keuchel in 2015 winning over David Price. However, they add 12 points for division winners, and the formula didn't take into account the fact that Price was only in Toronto for 1/3 of the season but was given the full 12 points. I think the writers did take that into consideration as no player has ever won an MVP or Cy Young Award while splitting time between two clubs.

Right now, they predict Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw to be the front runners for Cy Young. So there's the answer on who would win right now.

 

[The Oldtimer]

ESPN Cy Young Predictor has been pretty damn good lately. 11 of the last 12 award winners have been correct. The only one it got wrong was Dallas Keuchel in 2015 winning over David Price. However, they add 12 points for division winners, and the formula didn't take into account the fact that Price was only in Toronto for 1/3 of the season but was given the full 12 points. I think the writers did take that into consideration as no player has ever won an MVP or Cy Young Award while splitting time between two clubs.

Right now, they predict Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw to be the front runners for Cy Young. So there's the answer on who would win right now.

Thanks, good info.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

ESPN Cy Young Predictor has been pretty damn good lately. 11 of the last 12 award winners have been correct. The only one it got wrong was Dallas Keuchel in 2015 winning over David Price. However, they add 12 points for division winners, and the formula didn't take into account the fact that Price was only in Toronto for 1/3 of the season but was given the full 12 points. I think the writers did take that into consideration as no player has ever won an MVP or Cy Young Award while splitting time between two clubs.

Right now, they predict Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw to be the front runners for Cy Young. So there's the answer on who would win right now.

Ive heard some people are still pulling for a Chris Sale Tommy John procedure this season

Not me, I just heard some people

 

[soxfan1468927]

Ive heard some people are still pulling for a Chris Sale Tommy John procedure this season

Not me, I just heard some people

Would never be you of course.

 

[StanMarsh51]

I'm not trying to get blinded by homer glasses, but they are very close at this time and IMO won-loss record means quite a bit, when the rest of their stats are close. Will we see what happens in the 2nd half of the season.

With W-L record however, it needs to be realized that Kershaw's run support is 35% higher. In the games that Scherzer hasn't won, he has a 3.11 ERA, wheras Kershaw has a 3.62 ERA in the games he hasn't won.


Scherzer leads the NL in ERA/ERA+, WHIP, BAA, K's and K/9, complete games, and needs 3 innings in his start tomorrow to take the NL lead.

 

[navamind]

How's that? You might what to check out their stats. Kershaw has a better won-loss record at 13-2 and his ERA is slightly above Scherzer. Kershaw ERA 2.19. Scherzer is 10-5 with an ERA of 1.94.

Kershaw also pitches in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. Even though the gap in ERA isn't very big, the gap in ERA+ (park and league adjusted) is huge (Scherzer's 224 to Kershaw's 191). 191 is still historically good and would be deserving of a CYA nearly every year, but Scherzer's on his way to having one of the greatest seasons by a pitcher ever. But if anyone can catch up to him it's Kershaw, especially if he's finally gotten over his home run issues.

tl;dr: they're both ridiculously good, Scherzer's just been a little gooder.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

no player has ever won an MVP or Cy Young Award while splitting time between two clubs.

One. Rick Sutcliffe, '84 Cubs. And he switched leagues in that deal, too.

 

[soxfan1468927]

One. Rick Sutcliffe, '84 Cubs. And he switched leagues in that deal, too.

You win good sir. I realize now that it didn't register because only his NL work was shown for winning the NL Cy Young because he switched leagues. When in the case of David Price, he stayed in the same league and it showed all his stats for the AL that year with his team listed as "TOT".

 

[navamind]

AL MVP: Judge (I expect some regression for him, but he should still be one of the best hitters in the AL and there's been no one remotely close to him in WAR in the first half)
AL CYA: Sale (Vargas had a hell of a first half, but that 2.22 ERA looks pretty unsustainable; not to mention Sale's ERA+ is actually higher and he has about 20 more innings, not to mention the far superior K% / BB% / FIP / virtually every other metric.)
AL RoY: Judge (lol)

NL MVP: Goldschmidt
NL CYA: Scherzer
NL RoY: Bellinger (Gamel won't hit .439 on balls in play forever)

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
AL WC1: Yankees
AL WC2: Rays (I want to believe in the Mariners, but god their pitching sucks.)

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cubs (too much offensive talent to keep hitting as they have, plus they could make some big moves at the deadline)
NL West: Dodgers
NL WC1: Diamondbacks
NL WC2: Rockies (starting to regress, but even just .500 ball from here on out is probably enough for a Wild Card spot. I think they're capable of doing better than that. Their rotation is pretty good, Gray and Hoffman are good)

 

[navamind]

Kershaw's 191 ERA+ in 2017 would rank tied for 60th all-time among single seasons. Scherzer's 224 ERA+ would rank 15th.

Single-Season Leaders &amp Records for Adjusted ERA+ | Baseball-Reference.com

Scherzer could regress in the 2nd half. He has a .222 BABIP allowed (though he had more of .268 and .255 over the last two seasons, so he may not regress too much) and his xFIP is more than a full run above his ERA (3.13). His FIP is 2.61 as well.