Giants trade Jonathan Sanchez to Royals

[SFGRTB]

Those rankings are just some guy's opinion when it comes to fantasy ball player relevance.


Here are the numbers.

These stats are very skewed because the "Runs" column is based on just that so when the Giants have the second best pitching staff in MLB and the second worst offense in MLB, thats obviously going to be skewed. The other stats show that it's the hardest HR yard in MLB, but very fair in all the others. In fact, most stats show that Kaufman Stadium is very comparable to AT&T.

 

[the_broom]

I'll just state the obvious since the deal is done...

It needs to work...

 

[calsnowskier]

Agreed, but does Uribe get the same love from you? I know he's a Doyer but...

Uribe was cheered in his first AB. He was booed, and will be booed each subsequent AB until he takes that rag off.

 

[tzill]

2011 - 33 BB in 706 PA
2010 - 42 walkis in 509 PA
2009 - 43 walks in 540 PA
2008 - 29 walks in 453 PA

The guy has horrible OBP skills.

The Giants sold low on Sanchez and bought high on a guy who had a career year that he shows no signs of being able to duplicate. What's the point of trading for Andres Torres slightly better brother when we already have Torres? If Torres puts up numbers halfway between 2010 and 2011, the Giants are better off keeping Sanchez.

To give up another prospect in the deal just makes it even worse. Horrible deal IMO.

Cam, you've got a number of assumptions going here:
1. Sanchez was "sold low." What if he completely implodes next year and ends up 7-16 with an ERA over 6? Wouldn't we have "sold before low?"
2. Melky was "bought high." He's 26 and just entering his prime. Isn't it possible, even likely, that he's put it together as opposed to having a "career year?"
3. Melky "shows no signs of being able to duplicate" his 2011 season. The GREATEST predictor for next season is last season. Now, that doesn't mean it always works out (witness Chez' 2011) but if you're talking about a player with one really good year on his resume, don't you want that year to be last year? I'd say that's at least a "sign" that he is able to duplicate it.
4. Melky is essentially Torres. Torres is a 34 year-old career journeyman/minor leaguer who did nothing at the major league level until he busted out with a nice 2010 season. Melky has been in the majors since he was 20. Vastly different backgrounds and expectations. Put another way: do you think Torres could fetch a Sanchez level pitcher in a trade? Me neither.
5. Torres put up 4.6 WAR in 2010 (just below all star level) and 1.3 WAR in 2011 (reserve OF). If he were to put up a "halfway" 3.0 WAR then he'd be a legitimate starter. Clearly, the FO doesn't believe that's going to happen. Neither do I.
6. Melky put up 2.9 WAR last year -- about what you're hoping for from Andres. I think it's more likely that in his final arb year Cabrera is going to meet/exceed 2.9 WAR than Torres suddenly returning to his career year form (or even close to it). Clearly the FO believes Cabrera is a starting OF. So do I.

I guess we'll see who's right. As for OBP -- Melky was .339 with a .331 lifetime average. Andres was .312 with a .318 lifetime mark.

Not close. One guy is entering his prime coming off a very nice year. The other is well past 30 and coming off a poor year.

I'll go with the young guy on the upswing. Verdugo, btw, is nothing but organizational fodder.

 

[calsnowskier]

Cam, you've got a number of assumptions going here:
1. Sanchez was "sold low." What if he completely implodes next year and ends up 7-16 with an ERA over 6? Wouldn't we have "sold before low?"
2. Melky was "bought high." He's 26 and just entering his prime. Isn't it possible, even likely, that he's put it together as opposed to having a "career year?"
3. Melky "shows no signs of being able to duplicate" his 2011 season. The GREATEST predictor for next season is last season. Now, that doesn't mean it always works out (witness Chez' 2011) but if you're talking about a player with one really good year on his resume, don't you want that year to be last year? I'd say that's at least a "sign" that he is able to duplicate it.
4. Melky is essentially Torres. Torres is a 34 year-old career journeyman/minor leaguer who did nothing at the major league level until he busted out with a nice 2010 season. Melky has been in the majors since he was 20. Vastly different backgrounds and expectations. Put another way: do you think Torres could fetch a Sanchez level pitcher in a trade? Me neither.
5. Torres put up 4.6 WAR in 2010 (just below all star level) and 1.3 WAR in 2011 (reserve OF). If he were to put up a "halfway" 3.0 WAR then he'd be a legitimate starter. Clearly, the FO doesn't believe that's going to happen. Neither do I.
6. Melky put up 2.9 WAR last year -- about what you're hoping for from Andres. I think it's more likely that in his final arb year Cabrera is going to meet/exceed 2.9 WAR than Torres suddenly returning to his career year form (or even close to it). Clearly the FO believes Cabrera is a starting OF. So do I.

I guess we'll see who's right. As for OBP -- Melky was .339 with a .331 lifetime average. Andres was .312 with a .318 lifetime mark.

Not close. One guy is entering his prime coming off a very nice year. The other is well past 30 and coming off a poor year.

I'll go with the young guy on the upswing. Verdugo, btw, is nothing but organizational fodder.

Actually, I think Verdugo is a legit prospect, if you consider a ceiling of a #4 guy being a legit prospect.

In the context-free world that many casual fans view things, he is not going to be missed. However, in looking at the make-up of the Giants org right now (PRE off season moves), I think it is a risky move. We traded our #5 and #8 SPs for an arguably slightly above average CF.

I am not pro or anti trade yet. I think the trade has the potential to be a nice piece adding deal that all winners need to have executed. It also has the potential to be a .

Let's revisit in July and see what we think then.

 

[filosofy29]

Question. Where did Melky bat in the lineup for the Royals?

 

[CameronFrye]

Cam, you've got a number of assumptions going here:
1. Sanchez was "sold low." What if he completely implodes next year and ends up 7-16 with an ERA over 6? Wouldn't we have "sold before low?"
2. Melky was "bought high." He's 26 and just entering his prime. Isn't it possible, even likely, that he's put it together as opposed to having a "career year?"
3. Melky "shows no signs of being able to duplicate" his 2011 season. The GREATEST predictor for next season is last season. Now, that doesn't mean it always works out (witness Chez' 2011) but if you're talking about a player with one really good year on his resume, don't you want that year to be last year? I'd say that's at least a "sign" that he is able to duplicate it.
4. Melky is essentially Torres. Torres is a 34 year-old career journeyman/minor leaguer who did nothing at the major league level until he busted out with a nice 2010 season. Melky has been in the majors since he was 20. Vastly different backgrounds and expectations. Put another way: do you think Torres could fetch a Sanchez level pitcher in a trade? Me neither.
5. Torres put up 4.6 WAR in 2010 (just below all star level) and 1.3 WAR in 2011 (reserve OF). If he were to put up a "halfway" 3.0 WAR then he'd be a legitimate starter. Clearly, the FO doesn't believe that's going to happen. Neither do I.
6. Melky put up 2.9 WAR last year -- about what you're hoping for from Andres. I think it's more likely that in his final arb year Cabrera is going to meet/exceed 2.9 WAR than Torres suddenly returning to his career year form (or even close to it). Clearly the FO believes Cabrera is a starting OF. So do I.

I guess we'll see who's right. As for OBP -- Melky was .339 with a .331 lifetime average. Andres was .312 with a .318 lifetime mark.

Not close. One guy is entering his prime coming off a very nice year. The other is well past 30 and coming off a poor year.

I'll go with the young guy on the upswing. Verdugo, btw, is nothing but organizational fodder.

1. No. Even at your possible 2012 stats, Sanchez still fetches a Melky-esque piece in trade.

2. Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? No. Dude had a pretty solid 2007. His 2008 numbers flopped. He had a very solid 2009. He got traded to the Braves and put up shitty numbers in 2010. If he was finally putting it all together, I would assume a gradual and steady increase in stats, not an up-down graph like we have been shown.

3. See my answer to #2.

4. If Torres had been traded right after the World Series when he had his breakout year, there's no doubt in my mind that a good GM could have landed a Sanchez-type player for him. That is exactly what just happened - Melky had his career year and got spun for a talented but inconsistent pitcher.

5. But it CAN happen. According to FANGraphs, Torres 2010 season was a 6.8 WAR. Melky's career year last season earned him a 4.2. If Torres puts up HALF of his 2010 season, he gives the Giants a 3.4 WAR. I'll take his 3.4 AND the possibility of Jon Sanchez turning it around instead of relying on Zito/Surkamp for the # 5 spot while taking the chance that Mekly is going to duplicate 2011.

6. Again, you are projecting your positive spin on Melky saying what is likely. But from my views on his stats, he has NEVER been able to put together back-to-back seasons that are average or better. What happens the first time he gets a hold of a shot and it dies in center field? The second? Melky is an unknown just as much as Torres. His inconsistency is as bad as Sanchez'. You cannot project Melky as the guy finally turning the corner because you don't know. No one does. But the stats say he had a career year. Far and away. Until he proves 2011 to be something more than a fluke, he is no different than Andres Torres.

 

[Heathbar012]

Question. Where did Melky bat in the lineup for the Royals?

After a quick look through some box scores, it looks like second, mostly. I remember seeing a game against the A's where he batted fifth, though.

 

[CameronFrye]

Question. Where did Melky bat in the lineup for the Royals?

In the #2 hole for 663 of his 706 PAs

 

[filosofy29]

After a quick look through some box scores, it looks like second, mostly. I remember seeing a game against the A's where he batted fifth, though.

Thanks Bro Namath! Looks like the Giants still need a leadoff hitter then? Doesn't look like Melky takes a ton of walks.....so he'll fit right in

EDIT: Thanks as well to Cam.

 

[filosofy29]

Let's start a list of "Pros" and "Cons" to this trade shall we.....I'll start.

Pro: Tito's head just exploded. The only way this trade could have been worse for him were if Melky was white.....or if it were for Alex Rios.

 

[tzill]

Question. Where did Melky bat in the lineup for the Royals?

Leadoff and second.

 

[tzill]

1. No. Even at your possible 2012 stats, Sanchez still fetches a Melky-esque piece in trade.

2. Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? No. Dude had a pretty solid 2007. His 2008 numbers flopped. He had a very solid 2009. He got traded to the Braves and put up shitty numbers in 2010. If he was finally putting it all together, I would assume a gradual and steady increase in stats, not an up-down graph like we have been shown.

3. See my answer to #2.

4. If Torres had been traded right after the World Series when he had his breakout year, there's no doubt in my mind that a good GM could have landed a Sanchez-type player for him. That is exactly what just happened - Melky had his career year and got spun for a talented but inconsistent pitcher.

5. But it CAN happen. According to FANGraphs, Torres 2010 season was a 6.8 WAR. Melky's career year last season earned him a 4.2. If Torres puts up HALF of his 2010 season, he gives the Giants a 3.4 WAR. I'll take his 3.4 AND the possibility of Jon Sanchez turning it around instead of relying on Zito/Surkamp for the # 5 spot while taking the chance that Mekly is going to duplicate 2011.

6. Again, you are projecting your positive spin on Melky saying what is likely. But from my views on his stats, he has NEVER been able to put together back-to-back seasons that are average or better. What happens the first time he gets a hold of a shot and it dies in center field? The second? Melky is an unknown just as much as Torres. His inconsistency is as bad as Sanchez'. You cannot project Melky as the guy finally turning the corner because you don't know. No one does. But the stats say he had a career year. Far and away. Until he proves 2011 to be something more than a fluke, he is no different than Andres Torres.

Cam, all due respect, you're just wrong here. He's SEVEN years younger than Andres and has been in the majors since he was 20. Andres floated around the minors for the last several years until he caught one good season with the Giants. To say they're "no different" is just wrong.

Maybe Melky busts and Jonathan has an all star year for the Royals. But, that ain't the way to bet.

 

[calsnowskier]

Just a side note, but I think it might be the deal-breaker on how to judge this trade...

Giants news and notes on Melky Cabrera's new role, Pablo Sandoval's winter plans and how today's trade sets up the rest of the offseason | Extra Baggs

"-As for Sanchez, his contributions will earn him a place in franchise history. But it's clear the Giants had no appetite in tendering him a contract, especially after he showed little interest in pitching again after spraining his ankle in August."

Looks like Sanchez burned his last bridge in the org, so there was no way he was coming back, regardless. If we were able to get a bag of BP used balls for him, Sabes might have been willing to pull the trigger.

 

[tzill]

I liked this quote:

"The Giants see a player coming into his prime who finally learned the value of conditioning. Cabrera said his career year was a result of weight training in Miami, which he'll do again this winter. He used Alex Rodriguez's batting cage."

 

[tzill]

Cam, all due respect, you're just wrong here. He's SEVEN years younger than Andres and has been in the majors since he was 20. Andres floated around the minors for the last several years until he caught one good season with the Giants. To say they're "no different" is just wrong.

Maybe Melky busts and Jonathan has an all star year for the Royals. But, that ain't the way to bet.

Addendum: check out the lefty/right splits for Torres and Cabrera. Dude hit .300 from BOTH sides of the plate last year. I'm not thinking "career year," I'm thinking "breakout year."

 

[msgkings322]

My first thought about this trade was "Shit that means fucking Zito is our #5" that's probably not really the desired initial reaction to a trade.

I do not expect him to hit over .300 for us or display any power, but maybe his kind of hitting will meld in well with our park. Unlike say a Rowand. I don't know much about him really hopefully he's a guy who sprays the ball around and hits the gaps.

He doesn't have base stealing speed and he doesn't have a good OBP so I'm not exactly elated that he might be our new leadoff hitter.

Damn Durty is gone! I'm kinda bummed really, it's nice to have that kind of starter in your back pocket in the 5th spot. And who knows if Vogelsong was a flash in the pan. Suddenly our rotation has no depth which makes me a bit nervous since we are still built around pitching.

Edit:

I forgot to mention that I am very pleased that Cabrera is 27 and entering what hopes to be the best part of his career, if he were 33 I'd be down on this trade for sure.

Agreed, if he was 33 we don't trade Durty for him either.

 

[msgkings322]

You give Sabean WAAAAAYYY too much credit.

That's an opinion. Mine is you give him too little.

 

[msgkings322]

Uribe was cheered in his first AB. He was booed, and will be booed each subsequent AB until he takes that rag off.

I know the general reaction, just curious about your personal one.

 

[msgkings322]

Actually, I think Verdugo is a legit prospect, if you consider a ceiling of a #4 guy being a legit prospect.

In the context-free world that many casual fans view things, he is not going to be missed. However, in looking at the make-up of the Giants org right now (PRE off season moves), I think it is a risky move. We traded our #5 and #8 SPs for an arguably slightly above average CF.

I am not pro or anti trade yet. I think the trade has the potential to be a nice piece adding deal that all winners need to have executed. It also has the potential to be a .

Let's revisit in July and see what we think then.

This can basically describe every trade. Takes two to tango. Each team thinks they are getting something. Sometimes they are both right, sometimes both wrong, sometimes one of each.