Giants General Thoughts

[LHG]

So, apparently, Belt is going to have surgery and is out for the rest of the season. He will see how his body responds to decide whether he will retire or play in 2023.

 

[calsnowskier]

Not sure if anyone here has heard, but Belt will have season ending surgery.


Just letting you know.

 

[tzill]

During an interview with KNBR, team president Farhan Zaidi suggested that Joc Pederson could return on a new contract, and he also suggested that the organization would extend an arbitration offer to Mike Yastrzemski. With Austin Slater likely to return as well, that would mean almost the entire outfield would return. The Giants are running it back!

Now you’re excited about Giants baseball.

 

[tzill]

Here’s an outfielder who …

• Hits for power

• Has been worth 1.4 WAR according to Baseball-Reference and 1.5 according to FanGraphs

• Can take a walk

• Has a career .800 OPS

He’s not a very good defensive outfielder, and that should be taken into account. But if you’re asking if this profile fits somewhere on a 26-man roster, the answer might be “yes” for all 30 teams. Pederson is having one of the strangest feast-or-famine seasons in recent memory, but he’s already hit 20 home runs and reached base around 34 percent of the time. Most outfielders and designated hitters will not do this, so of course the Giants would consider bringing him back.

 

[tzill]

There will be a lot of 2022 Giants on the 2023 Giants, so get used to the idea now.

The Giants are going to make at least a couple of moves that will not excite you. They will be the transactional equivalents of folding laundry. They will bring players back who will remind you of this supremely disappointing and cursed season, and there will be guilt by association. The real work will be done around these players, though. It will have more to do with who’s hitting cleanup, and who’s the starting pitcher for the second game of the season. It will have to do with who the double-play combination is, and who’s starting at first base. It will have to do with the plan for the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.

This team will not improve through splashy transactions alone. So don’t roll your eyes too hard when you hear that the Giants might bring some of their outfielders back. There are ways where that makes sense, even if you don’t want to hear it right now.

 

[tzill]

Alex Cobb has posted a 2.83 ERA in the 2nd half of the season. He got off to a slow start, but he has had a fantastic season

As I've said: top ten SP in the NL.

 

[tzill]

Everything went as planned during Brandon Belt’s knee surgery today. He’ll be rehabbing for a couple of months. Obviously has a big decision to make after that.

Guess he's out of the lineup today...

 

[LHG]

There will be a lot of 2022 Giants on the 2023 Giants, so get used to the idea now.

The Giants are going to make at least a couple of moves that will not excite you. They will be the transactional equivalents of folding laundry. They will bring players back who will remind you of this supremely disappointing and cursed season, and there will be guilt by association. The real work will be done around these players, though. It will have more to do with who’s hitting cleanup, and who’s the starting pitcher for the second game of the season. It will have to do with who the double-play combination is, and who’s starting at first base. It will have to do with the plan for the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.

This team will not improve through splashy transactions alone. So don’t roll your eyes too hard when you hear that the Giants might bring some of their outfielders back. There are ways where that makes sense, even if you don’t want to hear it right now.

I understand bring back Pederson, but I would hope he spends much more time at the DH spot.

I get keeping Slater. He's a good 4th outfielder.

However, that makes Yastrzemski returning a bit awkward. He's a good defensive outfielder whose bat is looking more like 5th outfielder. I'm think Billy Hamilton but slower. He doesn't belong as a starter, unless this year really is a blip offensively. Not sure I can buy into that. His minor league track record, and his last 3 seasons in the big league, and his age, may suggest things don't get better offensively. However, if the offense is loaded with good bats, then playing a defensive minded right fielders makes more sense.

If the point in bringing back most of the 2022 team is to fill holes while the minor leaguers get closer to being ready, then I can understand that. But its to say that they will be truly competitive in 2023, then I call crap. You don't hope for fluky good seasons to happen 2 out of 3 years and expect to build consistently winning clubs. I really hope the prospects get good shots on the big league club's roster when they are ready.

 

[tzill]

The SFGiants have 3 of the top 10 FIP leaders in the NL (Min. 100 innings):
1. Carlos Rodón - 2.41 FIP
5. Alex Cobb - 2.85 FIP
10. Logan Webb - 3.19 FIP

I'd really like to see Rodon back next year.

 

[tzill]

Both Carlos Rodón and Joc Pederson will be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in the offseason, giving the SFGiants and small extra layer of leverage in contract talks. It’s a slam dunk that Rodón would reject it but it’s something that Pederson might accept…

Pederson is on the bubble of the type of player who might be issued one but it makes sense for the Giants because if he accepts, it’s a one-year deal and that fits what the front office likes in a deal. For Pederson, the amount would be 3 times what he’s making in 2022.

 

[LHG]

Both Carlos Rodón and Joc Pederson will be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in the offseason, giving the SFGiants and small extra layer of leverage in contract talks. It’s a slam dunk that Rodón would reject it but it’s something that Pederson might accept…

Pederson is on the bubble of the type of player who might be issued one but it makes sense for the Giants because if he accepts, it’s a one-year deal and that fits what the front office likes in a deal. For Pederson, the amount would be 3 times what he’s making in 2022.

I'm completely good with a QO for Rodon. If he leaves, at least get something back.

I'm not sure about Pederson. He's been good this year but he's had an up and down career. Will he be worth that much in 2023? Possibly, but hardly a sure thing.

 

[calsnowskier]

I would be SHOCKED if the Giants extend a QO to Pedo. We could likely sign him for 2/24 if not a LOT less. He is, in no way, shape or form an 18M/year player.

 

[tzill]

I would be SHOCKED if the Giants extend a QO to Pedo. We could likely sign him for 2/24 if not a LOT less. He is, in no way, shape or form an 18M/year player.

Have to disagree here. He's on pace to put up 1.8-1.9 WAR this year. Open market that's worth about $15/16M a year. Add in the notion that if you have him primarily DH vs RHP, his WAR goes up even more (he's lost 0.6 WAR this year due to defense). He's fairly durable and by all accounts a decent clubhouse guy.

Again, he's a bubble QO guy. But what he is NOT is a 2/24 guy. He knows this, his agent knows this, and so does FZ. We might get him at 2/30.

 

[LHG]

So I keep hearing that a big part of the 2022 disappointment of a season is due to injuries the Giants have sustained. Is that really the case, though? I looked through all the IL stints and have broken them down below, with a rating on whether or not those injuries could have contributed in more losses than if those players were healthy. It should be noted that there were no injuries going into the 2022 season that caused any player to miss the entirety of the season. Not many teams can say this. It should also be noted that I have no idea how many IL stints the Giants have had compared to other teams. My gut level guess would be that the Giants are on the lower end of total days on the IL, though (i.e. bottom 15 of MLB clubs).

First, let's eliminate the guys placed on the 60 day IL while in the minor leagues, or claimed and immediately placed on the 60 day IL. Also eliminated any players signed and immediately placed on any IL. This eliminates 7 players from really being in the injury caused this season argument.
Matthew Boyd - (signed 3/20/22) 3/27/22 (60 day IL) (traded - 8/2/22)
Sam delaplane - (optioned 6/4/22) 6/21/22 (60 day IL)
Colton Welker - (claimed 7/8/22) 7/8/22 (60 day IL)
Trevor Rosenthal - (signed on 7/21/22) 7/21/22 (15 day IL) (traded - 8/2/22)
Donovan Walton - (optioned 7/5/22) 8/21/22 (60 day IL)
Gregory Santos - (optioned 7/26/22) 8/23/22 (60 day IL)
Sam Long - (optioned 8/3/22) 8/26/22 (60 day IL)
Obviously, none of these guys were having any impact on the performance of the big league club because they weren't on the team when they got injured.

Second, consider the guys who had minimal stays (or close to minimal) on the IL (some were placed retroactively so the days are shorter than the minimum):
Mike Yastrzemski - 4/25/22-5/4/22 (10 day IL) (9 days)
Dominic Leone - 4/29/22-5/7/22 (15 day IL) (8 days)
Jack McGee - 5/11/22-5/27/22 (15 day IL) (16 days)
Austin Slater - 5/23/22-6/4/22 (10 day IL) (12 days)
Joc Pederson - 7/29/22-8/6/22 (7 day IL) (8 days)
Joey Bart - 8/30/22 (7 day IL - eligible 9/5/22)
I've added Bart since he is still within the window to get activated. It is likely he's going to be activated Sept. 6th. Bart's impact is minimal so far but if it becomes a more lengthy stay, it could have a bigger impact on the team. Yastrzemski was hitting fairly well when he was injured and Leone was doing okay, so there was a bit of an impact to the team but considering how quickly both came back, I think the impact was minimal. Slater was okay and Pederson was in a bit of a slump, so I think their impacts were even less. And McGee has been awful. Is he still injured? Hard to say, but he's with his 3rd org this year. The stay on the IL was probably a positive for the club.
Rating for this group: No change.

Third, there is one player who only spent up to 10 days past the minimum stay on the IL:
Luis Gonzalez - 6/23/22-7/9/22 (10 day IL) (16 days)
He was starting to slump at this point and has only gotten worse since his activation. His IL stay did not impact the club.
Rating: No change.

Now we get into the significant IL stays. They are:
Mauricio Llovera - 7/16/22 (15 day IL, transferred to 60 day IL on 7/21/22 - eligible 9/14/22)
Steven Duggar - 4/22/22-6/23/22 (60 day IL) (62 days)
Jakob Junis - 6/11/22-7/16/22 (15 day IL) (35 days)
Alex Wood - 9/2/22 (15 day IL - eligible 9/16/22)
Duggar is currently a free agent, being let go by both the Rangers and Angels. Of course, he was hitting better with the Giants (which isn't saying much but his injury may still be bothering him now) and plays great defense. Since he is not with the team, I'd say his IL stay was minimal. Junis' stay, however, definitely hurt the club. They were short staffed in the rotation and he was pitching well. It could have cost them a couple of games. Llovera was looking like a possible fixture in a very uneven bullpen. The fact that he will probably miss the rest of the season (approximately 85 days) hurts. Wood has not been that good this season so his impact is negligible, even if he is done for the season. However, it is possible this injury has been a problem for a while.
Rating: Loss of 3 games

Finally, lets talk about guys on the IL multiple times:
Thairo Estrada - (2 stints: 7/3/22-7/8/22; 7/31/22-8/7/22) (10 day IL; 7 day IL) (12 days)
Alex Cobb - (2 stints: 4/19/22-5/1/22; 6/7/22-6/19/22) (15 day IL) (24 days)
Brandon Crawford - (2 stints: 6/26/22-7/5/22; 7/16/22-8/6/22) (10 day IL) (30 days)
Curt Casali - (2 stints: 5/21/22-5/28/22; 7/5/22-8/2/22) (7 day IL; 10 day IL) (35 days)
Brandon Belt - (3 stints: 4/29/22-5/7/22;5/22/22-/6/14/22; 8/24/22-current) (10 day IL; 10 day IL; 10 day IL, transferred to 60 day IL on 9/4/22 - eligible 10/22/22) (43 days and counting)
Zack Littell - (2 stints: 4/26/22-5/5/22; 7/9/22-8/17/22) (15 day IL) (50 days)
Tommy LaStella - (2 stints: 4/4/22-5/16/22; 7/8/22-7/26/22) (10 day IL) (60 days)
Evan Longoria - (3 stints: 4/4/22-5/11/22; 7/6/22-7/16/22; 7/24/22-8/8/22) (10 day IL) (62 days)
Jose Alvarez - (2 stints: 6/21/22-7/5/22; 7/5/22-current) (15 day IL; 15 day IL, transferred to 60 day IL on 7/14/22) (62 days and counting)
LaMonte Wade - (2 stints: 4/4/22-5/6/22; 5/19/22-6/29/22) (10 day IL) (73 days)
Anthony DeSclafani - (2 stints: 4/22/22-/6/21/22; 7/1/22-current) (15 day IL, transferred to 60 day IL on 5/16/22; 15 day IL, transferred to 60 day IL on 7/7/22) (126 days and counting)
Estrada barely missed any time on his 2 stints and hasn't hit that well this year. No impact.
Cobb's first stint was when he was struggling and gave Junis time to show what he had. However, the 2nd stint was when Cobb began to heat up. I'd say the two cancel each other out.
Crawford has looked old and it may be more than just injuries. No impact.
Casali's 1st stint was due to a concussion and he came back quickly. His 2nd stint was when he took over as the main catcher but it allowed Bart to come back up and get hot. Could be a positive impact, especially since he was traded before being activated.
Belt is also looking old. His production, when "healthy", has dropped off considerably. He wasn't the worst hitter on this team but he's no where close to the best this year. No impact.
Littell was sent down and later recalled in between IL stints, which shows the lack of impact his time on the IL has had on the team.
LaStella is really struggling with the bat this year. Apparently, the Giants feel he is healthy enough to hit. But his numbers suggest otherwise. Its possible that this is negatively impacting the Giants.
Longoria's 3 stints on the IL has definitely been felt, considering the season he's had when healthy.
Alvarez and Wade both has struggled to produce when active. Both may have been/are dealing with health issues when active. Hard to know if their times on the IL have hurt the club.
DeSclafani arguably hurt the club more when he was active but considering that he was good last year, it is possible his absence has not helped. Of course, he started to fade in late 2021, so maybe his struggles in 2022 are not health related.
Rating: Loss of 4 games (mainly from Longoria and being generous on what some of the others may have been able to do if they were healthy).

Could this club have won 7 more games if everyone stayed healthy all year? Maybe. But then we have to look at all other 29 clubs and ask the same question about their IL guys. Bottom line, I don't think the injuries have had that big of an impact on this club. The issues are elsewhere. But, maybe, it is worth saying that they played a small role in a big letdown of a 2022 season.

 

[LHG]

Have to disagree here. He's on pace to put up 1.8-1.9 WAR this year. Open market that's worth about $15/16M a year. Add in the notion that if you have him primarily DH vs RHP, his WAR goes up even more (he's lost 0.6 WAR this year due to defense). He's fairly durable and by all accounts a decent clubhouse guy.

Again, he's a bubble QO guy. But what he is NOT is a 2/24 guy. He knows this, his agent knows this, and so does FZ. We might get him at 2/30.

Then he better be primarily a DH in 2023 if he's offered a QO and accepts. Otherwise, that is a dumb move, IMHO.

 

[calsnowskier]

So I keep hearing that a big part of the 2022 disappointment of a season is due to injuries the Giants have sustained. Is that really the case, though? I looked through all the IL stints and have broken them down below, with a rating on whether or not those injuries could have contributed in more losses than if those players were healthy. It should be noted that there were no injuries going into the 2022 season that caused any player to miss the entirety of the season. Not many teams can say this. It should also be noted that I have no idea how many IL stints the Giants have had compared to other teams. My gut level guess would be that the Giants are on the lower end of total days on the IL, though (i.e. bottom 15 of MLB clubs).

First, let's eliminate the guys placed on the 60 day IL while in the minor leagues, or claimed and immediately placed on the 60 day IL. Also eliminated any players signed and immediately placed on any IL. This eliminates 7 players from really being in the injury caused this season argument.
Matthew Boyd - (signed 3/20/22) 3/27/22 (60 day IL) (traded - 8/2/22)
Sam delaplane - (optioned 6/4/22) 6/21/22 (60 day IL)
Colton Welker - (claimed 7/8/22) 7/8/22 (60 day IL)
Trevor Rosenthal - (signed on 7/21/22) 7/21/22 (15 day IL) (traded - 8/2/22)
Donovan Walton - (optioned 7/5/22) 8/21/22 (60 day IL)
Gregory Santos - (optioned 7/26/22) 8/23/22 (60 day IL)
Sam Long - (optioned 8/3/22) 8/26/22 (60 day IL)
Obviously, none of these guys were having any impact on the performance of the big league club because they weren't on the team when they got injured.

Second, consider the guys who had minimal stays (or close to minimal) on the IL (some were placed retroactively so the days are shorter than the minimum):
Mike Yastrzemski - 4/25/22-5/4/22 (10 day IL) (9 days)
Dominic Leone - 4/29/22-5/7/22 (15 day IL) (8 days)
Jack McGee - 5/11/22-5/27/22 (15 day IL) (16 days)
Austin Slater - 5/23/22-6/4/22 (10 day IL) (12 days)
Joc Pederson - 7/29/22-8/6/22 (7 day IL) (8 days)
Joey Bart - 8/30/22 (7 day IL - eligible 9/5/22)
I've added Bart since he is still within the window to get activated. It is likely he's going to be activated Sept. 6th. Bart's impact is minimal so far but if it becomes a more lengthy stay, it could have a bigger impact on the team. Yastrzemski was hitting fairly well when he was injured and Leone was doing okay, so there was a bit of an impact to the team but considering how quickly both came back, I think the impact was minimal. Slater was okay and Pederson was in a bit of a slump, so I think their impacts were even less. And McGee has been awful. Is he still injured? Hard to say, but he's with his 3rd org this year. The stay on the IL was probably a positive for the club.
Rating for this group: No change.

Third, there is one player who only spent up to 10 days past the minimum stay on the IL:
Luis Gonzalez - 6/23/22-7/9/22 (10 day IL) (16 days)
He was starting to slump at this point and has only gotten worse since his activation. His IL stay did not impact the club.
Rating: No change.

Now we get into the significant IL stays. They are:
Mauricio Llovera - 7/16/22 (15 day IL, transferred to 60 day IL on 7/21/22 - eligible 9/14/22)
Steven Duggar - 4/22/22-6/23/22 (60 day IL) (62 days)
Jakob Junis - 6/11/22-7/16/22 (15 day IL) (35 days)
Alex Wood - 9/2/22 (15 day IL - eligible 9/16/22)
Duggar is currently a free agent, being let go by both the Rangers and Angels. Of course, he was hitting better with the Giants (which isn't saying much but his injury may still be bothering him now) and plays great defense. Since he is not with the team, I'd say his IL stay was minimal. Junis' stay, however, definitely hurt the club. They were short staffed in the rotation and he was pitching well. It could have cost them a couple of games. Llovera was looking like a possible fixture in a very uneven bullpen. The fact that he will probably miss the rest of the season (approximately 85 days) hurts. Wood has not been that good this season so his impact is negligible, even if he is done for the season. However, it is possible this injury has been a problem for a while.
Rating: Loss of 3 games

Finally, lets talk about guys on the IL multiple times:
Thairo Estrada - (2 stints: 7/3/22-7/8/22; 7/31/22-8/7/22) (10 day IL; 7 day IL) (12 days)
Alex Cobb - (2 stints: 4/19/22-5/1/22; 6/7/22-6/19/22) (15 day IL) (24 days)
Brandon Crawford - (2 stints: 6/26/22-7/5/22; 7/16/22-8/6/22) (10 day IL) (30 days)
Curt Casali - (2 stints: 5/21/22-5/28/22; 7/5/22-8/2/22) (7 day IL; 10 day IL) (35 days)
Brandon Belt - (3 stints: 4/29/22-5/7/22;5/22/22-/6/14/22; 8/24/22-current) (10 day IL; 10 day IL; 10 day IL, transferred to 60 day IL on 9/4/22 - eligible 10/22/22) (43 days and counting)
Zack Littell - (2 stints: 4/26/22-5/5/22; 7/9/22-8/17/22) (15 day IL) (50 days)
Tommy LaStella - (2 stints: 4/4/22-5/16/22; 7/8/22-7/26/22) (10 day IL) (60 days)
Evan Longoria - (3 stints: 4/4/22-5/11/22; 7/6/22-7/16/22; 7/24/22-8/8/22) (10 day IL) (62 days)
Jose Alvarez - (2 stints: 6/21/22-7/5/22; 7/5/22-current) (15 day IL; 15 day IL, transferred to 60 day IL on 7/14/22) (62 days and counting)
LaMonte Wade - (2 stints: 4/4/22-5/6/22; 5/19/22-6/29/22) (10 day IL) (73 days)
Anthony DeSclafani - (2 stints: 4/22/22-/6/21/22; 7/1/22-current) (15 day IL, transferred to 60 day IL on 5/16/22; 15 day IL, transferred to 60 day IL on 7/7/22) (126 days and counting)
Estrada barely missed any time on his 2 stints and hasn't hit that well this year. No impact.
Cobb's first stint was when he was struggling and gave Junis time to show what he had. However, the 2nd stint was when Cobb began to heat up. I'd say the two cancel each other out.
Crawford has looked old and it may be more than just injuries. No impact.
Casali's 1st stint was due to a concussion and he came back quickly. His 2nd stint was when he took over as the main catcher but it allowed Bart to come back up and get hot. Could be a positive impact, especially since he was traded before being activated.
Belt is also looking old. His production, when "healthy", has dropped off considerably. He wasn't the worst hitter on this team but he's no where close to the best this year. No impact.
Littell was sent down and later recalled in between IL stints, which shows the lack of impact his time on the IL has had on the team.
LaStella is really struggling with the bat this year. Apparently, the Giants feel he is healthy enough to hit. But his numbers suggest otherwise. Its possible that this is negatively impacting the Giants.
Longoria's 3 stints on the IL has definitely been felt, considering the season he's had when healthy.
Alvarez and Wade both has struggled to produce when active. Both may have been/are dealing with health issues when active. Hard to know if their times on the IL have hurt the club.
DeSclafani arguably hurt the club more when he was active but considering that he was good last year, it is possible his absence has not helped. Of course, he started to fade in late 2021, so maybe his struggles in 2022 are not health related.
Rating: Loss of 4 games (mainly from Longoria and being generous on what some of the others may have been able to do if they were healthy).

Could this club have won 7 more games if everyone stayed healthy all year? Maybe. But then we have to look at all other 29 clubs and ask the same question about their IL guys. Bottom line, I don't think the injuries have had that big of an impact on this club. The issues are elsewhere. But, maybe, it is worth saying that they played a small role in a big letdown of a 2022 season.

Out-fucking-standing

 

[calsnowskier]

Then he better be primarily a DH in 2023 if he's offered a QO and accepts. Otherwise, that is a dumb move, IMHO.

If you listen to Kruk, he should be manning center in ‘23

 

[tzill]

Then he better be primarily a DH in 2023 if he's offered a QO and accepts. Otherwise, that is a dumb move, IMHO.

Id think that's exactly how they'd use him. My point is that he's got decent value as a DH for 100ish games, PH in another 25 or so, and maybe 15 starts in LF. That's how I'd use him.

 

[tzill]

Lukewarm take:

TyRo is the best position player on the 2022 Giants.

On pace for 2.6 WAR. Kind of a lone bright spot.

Joc on pace for 1.9 WAR
Wilmer 2.3
Slater 2.2
Longo 1.9
Craw 1.8
Yaz 1.6
Bart 1.3

nobody else worth mentioning. I think if Joc/Wilmer are managed correctly (Joc DH/PH and very few starts in the OF; Wilmer DH/PH and a few starts at 1b) that we can get 2.5ish WAR from both. Valuable pieces.
Slater is a conundrum, but probably a 3rd OF
Longo can't stay healthy, but might be worth $8M cost to pick up the option
Craw is a sunk cost but good clubhouse guy who should give way to others at SS -- $16M is a legacy payment, but it shouldn't cripple us.
Yaz is another conundrum -- I think you bring him back and hope you can fix his swing.
Bartman should be a solid 2-3 WAR guy next year.

It's not all bleak.
My WAG for 2023 salaries:

Joc 2/30
Wilmer 2/20
Slater 3
Longo 13 (5 is sunk, so cost is 8)
Craw 16
Yaz 5.5
Bart 1.5
Tyro 1.5

Thats about $65M for approx 18-19 WAR...good value. We'll see what FZ does around this.

 

[LHG]

Out-fucking-standing

I find it annoying when analysts and broadcasters automatically use the injury topic as the reason or a big reason for a bad year. It seems like there is no thought into checking if that is truly the case. Its the lazy narrative.